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HomeMy WebLinkAboutMINUTES - 03081994 - 2.3 TO: BOARD OF SUPERVISORS 5----�. ,.�.... of Contra Costa FROM: Phil Batchelor, County Administrator �'��_�- �•,`s 2,. � ,z County �. DATE: March 8/ 1994 , �A srq'couK'� SUBJECT: Pension Obligation Bonds SPECIFIC REQUEST(S)OR RECOMMENDATION(S)&BACKGROUND AND JUSTIFICATION RECOMMENDATIONS: 1 . Accept report from the County Administrator on the Pension Obligation Bond Issue. 2 . Acknowledge receipt of the Pricing Book prepared by the` Underwriting firm of CS First Boston. 3 . Acknowledge that the successful completion of the Pension Obligation Bond issue will reduce the interest cost for the County' s Unamortized Pension Liability from 8% to an average of 6 . 73% on the total liability of $333,724,000 over the 17 year life of the issue. 4 . Acknowledge that the timely sale of the issue in early, February avoided the recent rise in interest rates that would have reduced the potential present value savings of the issue by approximately $10,000,000 . 5. Acknowledge that the financial advisor, bond counsel and underwriters worked through an extraordinary number of complex issues to assist the. County in completing a very successful issue. 6 . Acknowledge that the savings potential from the bond issue has been enhanced through the use of prepaying the annual County Retirement costs at a discount and through an investment agreement whereby the County will receive 5 .55% interest on the debt service funds deposited annually with the Trustee. 7 . Acknowledge the excellent cooperation and support of the County Employees Retirement Board and staff in completing the issue. CONTINUED ON ATTACHMENT: YES SIGNATURE: RECOMMENDATION OF COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD COMMITTEE APPROVE OTHER SIGNATURE S: ACTION OF BOARD ON March , 1994 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED X OTHER VOTE OF SUPERVISORS XX _ _ _ I HEREBY CERTIFY THAT THIS IS A TRUE UNANIMOUS(ABSENT ) AND CORRECT COPY OF AN ACTION TAKEN AYES: NOES: AND ENTERED ON THE MINUTES OF THE BOARD ABSENT: ABSTAIN: OF SUPERVISORS ON THE DATE SHOWN. ATTESTED March 8 , 1994 Contact: PHIL BATCHELOR,CLERK OF THE BOARD OF CC: SUPERVISORS AND COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR See Page 2 BY T/D' ///�'� v� ,DEPUTY -2- BACKGROUND: The Pension Obligation Bonds were sold on February 15, 1994 and the issue was closed on March 1, 1994 . The issue size was $337, 365,000 which covered the County's unamortized liability to the Retirement Association and the cost of issuance. Plans and agreements have put in place to prepay the annual, normal retirement costs at a discount to gain additional savings throughout the life of the issue. In addition, an investment agreement was entered into whereby the County is paid 5.55% on the debt service funds that are required to be paid to the Trustee each year. This is a greater interest rate than could normally be obtained for such deposits due to the short-term nature of the investment. The County was the third California county to issue Pension Obligation Bonds . Sonoma County issued $97 .4 million in October of 1993 and San Diego County issued $450 million in February. Several other counties are in the process of such issues . The recent changes in the interest rates may delay or eliminate the financial feasibility of further issues . Contact: DeRoyce Bell ( 646-4093) cc: County Administrator Auditor-Controller Treasurer-Tax Collector County Counsel Retirement Administrator - J —n 5, 3 3 z_ s� ` irs retry y3 ?3 b s rw r } r r a3 v r. r u s w D G .v 4a .w ..+ •,��,,, ccs TS .•+ PC+ t 5n4 CA V � ..-r Gly N �O Cl) N N Agova.. ' ® N N N N N 00 O � 0 N ,-y /) L \ Y/ N I O � O Cr r. .� 49a ' u 'In N ® u G a, y � o+ L � ~ \ ® 44 (c H `V q 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 `" N � O O 00) OLn O 0a0. 0O0. I'D u i i.n Ln in 3 H a, ' M Q� e"1 N a � z u ON �4 ®? [� o u � � w C) Ln rn Lr) co Ln n Lr; .o Lr) L o� o6 L � I February 11, 1994 Darwin L. Beck (212) 909-3023 Economist Department Money Market.Notes The Fed On February 4 the hibernating Fed woke up and increased the target federal funds rate 25 basis points Watch to 3'/4%. This is the first tightening of monetary policy since 1989. To assure that no one missed the event,Chairman Greenspan issued a press statement announcing the action. The reason given for the announcement was "to avoid any misunderstanding of the committee's [Federal Open Market Committee] purposes." Since the press release took the form of a statement from Chairman Greenspan,it does not obligate the FOMC to make a similar statement when it makes future policy moves. The tightening move came sooner than we expected,but a Fed in motion tends to remain in motion, and last Friday's action marks the first of a series of tightening moves. The most likely path is a 25 basis point increase per quarter in the target federal funds rate. This pace is consistent with a gradualist Fed, and it will put the federal funds rate at about 4% at year end. Now the question is how long the Fed will be in a tightening mode and how high the federal funds rate will go? The record is imprecise. Since the mid-1960s,periods of Fed tightening have ranged from about six months to three years. The average was a bit under two years. From the early 1960s to the iearly 1980s,the peak federal funds rate ratcheted higher with each tightening. In early 1960 the federal funds rate peaked at 4%. In 1981 the federal funds rate peaked at 20%. Since 1981 the pattern has reversed. The federal funds rate peaked at under 12%in 1984 and under 10%in 1989. Moreover,in these two periods of tightening, the federal funds rate rose an average of about 350 basis points. In the current period,the Fed has begun its tightening from a federal funds rate that has averaged 3% since September 1992. Recent patterns suggest both that in this episode of tightening the federal funds rate should peak somewhere in a 6 to 7%range and that the peak should occur in late 1995 or early 1996. Politically such timing could not be better, and the White House probably recognizes this. Clinton's Chief Economist, Laura Tyson, indicated that the Administration has anticipated some modest rise in short-term interest rates. Indeed,the economic assumptions in the 1995 Budget have short-term interest rates rising about 50 basis points per year. Treasury Secretary Bentsen said that the Fed's move was not unexpected,that he respects the Fed's independence,and that he anticipates no adverse effect on economic growth. It will be interesting to see if the Administration takes this benign attitude as the Fed continues to tighten. The Fed has been pointing to the low real federal funds rate—the nominal federal funds rate less the inflation rate—as an indicator of the accommodative stance of monetary policy. For the past year,the real federal funds rate has fluctuated around zero. In the decade of the 1960s,the real federal funds rate average about 13/4%. If that is considered to be the normal rate,and if prices remain stable, the federal funds rate needs to rise about 150 basis points to reach a neutral stage. If the Fed means to significantly tighten monetary policy it will need to push the federal funds rate even higher. In 1981- 82 the real federal funds rate averaged 6.0%. CS FIRST BOSTON Selected Economic Indicators (Monthlypercent changes or otherwise indicated) 1994 1993 JAN DEC NOV OCT SEP AUG JUL JUNE MAY APR MAR FEB JAN Index of Consumer Sentiment 94.3 88.2 81.2 82.7 77.9 77.3 77.0 81.5 80.3 85.6 85.9 86.6 89.3 NAPM Index 57.7 57.1 55.3 53.5 50.3 49.4 49.5 48.8 50.8 50.4 53.4 55.3 57.3 , Unemployment Rate,(%) 6.7 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 Employment,(chg.in thous.) 62 190 216 162 197 -33 237 43 238 255 26 304 156 Auto Sales,domestic(mil, AR) 7.3 7.0 7.1 7.1 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.4 6.0 6.7 Retail Sales -0.5 1.2 0.7 2.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.9 -1.0 0.0 0.0 Excluding Autos -0.3 1.0 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.5 -1.3 0.3 0.0 Producer Price Index 0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.8 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.3 Excluding Food&Energy 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.1 -1.1 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 Industrial Production 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 Capacity Utilization Rate,(%) 82.0 81.6 80.9 80.4 80.3 80.3 80.1 80.2 80.6 80.1 80.2 80.0 Housing Starts(millions) 1.540 1.450 1.390 1.371 1.328 1.232 1.248 1.248 1.206 1.124 1.180 1.171 GDP Real,(qtly%chg.AR) 5.9 2.9 1.9 0.8 GDP Deflator, (qtly%chg AR) 1.3 1.6 2.3 3.6 After Tax Profits(qtly,$bil.) 274.3 272.3 258.9 Personal Income 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.2 1.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.4 -5.1 Consumer Price Index 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.5 Excluding Food&Energy 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.5 Durable Goods Orders 22 2.3 2.6 1.1 2.5 -2.8 4.3 -2.4 -0.1 -3.4 2.5 -2.5 Factory Orders 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.7 1.2 -1.9 2.9 -1.6 -0.3 -1.6 1.4 -1.3 Leading Indicators 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.7 0.2 -0.4 Construction Expenditure 2.6 2.1 2.6 1.8 0.4 1.3 1.6 0.9 -1.2 0.1 0.6 -0.9 Merc.Trade Bal.($bil.) -10.2 -10.9 -10.6 -10.0 -10.4 -12.1 -8.4 -10.2 10.5 -7.9 -7.7 Bus. Inventories(chg.in$bil.) 5.4 2.3 1.5 2.3 -0.6 0.0 1.7 3.4 4.4 3.5 2.1 Monetary Aggregates A re ates and Credit Measures (Percent annual rates of growth) M-1 5.6 6.4 9.7 9.0 10.7 9.4 11.4 10.0 23.6 8.0 5.6 2.8 7.5 M-2 2.0 2.0 3.8 0.6 7.9 1.0 1.8 2.3 8.2 1.1 0.2 -2.9 2.7 M-3 0.7 3.0 3.8 1.8 2.8 0.3 -0.1 0.1 2.4 2.1 -0.4 -1.8 0.0 t Bank Credit 5.7 6.3 -0.2 4.2 3.4 19.3 9.3 8.2 4.3 6.6 3.5 -0.9 Total Loans 3.6 7.9 2.0 2.8 0.8 10.0 7.9 10.1 -1.2 -0.2 -1.8 -0.1 Business Loans -2.5 -0.6 -1.0 -6.9 -1.2 -1.4 2.0 4.9 -11.3 -7.2 -2.6 0.8 Commercial Paper -0.8 20.3 -9.3 14.2 -10.9 5.2 13.0 4.2 15.0 -28.1 33.3 , Non-Financial -12.3 -2.0 -3.1 -11.7 63.2 -14.6 18.3 59.6 -39.5 15.3 25.9 This memorandum is for informative purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. While information herein has been obtained from sourcei believed to be reliable,we do not represent it to be accurate or complete.This document may not be reproduced in whole or in part or otherwise made available without our written consent. This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for,or solicit investment banking or other business from,any company mentioned. We or our employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any security referred to herein. ©1994,CS First Boston Corporation , February 8, 1994 ,--, Economist Department Overview of Current Economic Environment A. Outlook for the U.S.Economy • On February 4,the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate from 3.0%to 3'/a%against a backdrop of a U.S.economy that had surged at nearly a 6%pace in the fourth quarter. However,that contained an abnormally large boost from auto production,some post-flood rebound and followed three quarters when growth averaged 1.4%. A tax increase of around$25 billion will hit the economy soon. Furthermore, only 1.9 million jobs were added in the last year and the slip to 62,000 in.January was a harbinger of other statistics that will be depressed by severe winter weather. (The decline in the unemployment rate has been attributable to particularly slow growth in the labor force,not unusual when the returns to work are so puny.) CPI inflation,at 2.7%over the past year,was among the lowest in the past two decades and ironically,the Fed issued a downward revision to capacity utilization rate data two hours before they announced the tightening. Clearly the Fed's move was preemptive,trying to correct the past mistake of fighting inflation too late. It also is consistent with the Greenspan mode of gradualism. • Positives and negatives of unknown size weigh against each other. On the plus side,the economy seems to be gaining momentum. Particularly impressive was last quarter's 52%annual rate jump in nondefense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft. Potential home buyers waiting to catch the bottom in rates will temporarily flood into the market. On the minus side,besides taxes,weather and higher interest rates,is the pervasive fundamental that households do not have enough money to continue to spend at their recent pace,while the stimulus from lower interest rates is waning. We have made no changes in our real growth,inflation or corporate profits forecast this month. • The U.S. and world economies will not be much affected by one 25 basis point increase in short-term interest rates. However,the early timing of the move suggests that monetary policy will do its best to prevent U.S. real growth from rising much above 3%. B. Fiscal Policy Developments • Aside from health care, no major budget changes are expected this year. The Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 will create about$30 billion of fiscal drag in 1994. Stronger revenues and less RTC spending reduce our projected 1994 deficit to$230 to $235 billion. • The Treasury expects to borrow$45 billion in the current quarter,including an$11 billion offering of long bonds in the midquarter refunding. Half of the gross coupon offerings will have a maturity of three years or less. • The Treasury's financing pattern biases the yield curve to a flatter shape. C. Monetary Policy Developments • The Fed has embarked on monetary tightening earlier than we anticipated. Economic events will determine the timing of the next move, but a gradual 25 basis point increase per quarter in the federal funds rate is likely. • The Bank of Japan has brought official short-term interest rates to historic laws. Further stimulus in Japan awaits enactment of Hosokawa's fiscal plan. • The Fed's tightening move make other central bankers more sensitive to currency developments. Nevertheless,German and other Continental interest rates have room to come down further. D. Financial Market Outlook • Long-term Treasury bond yields are set to trade in a 6-6%s%range. • The trend toward globalization of U.S.investment intensified in 1993. Savers in search of high yields flocked to emerging markets. This trend is expected to continue, at least selectively. • Stocks benefit from the low cash yields,profit gains as firms continue to be rewarded for cost-cutting, and the reintroduction of a sizable capital gains tax differential. A few blockbuster transactions suggest a takeover premium is reentering equity valuations. • We expect the dollar to rise modestly, say about 5% from current levels, as the US economy continues to outperform the other G-7 countries in 1994. E. Riskg • The health care industry, one-seventh of the American economy, about twice the size of the defense industry at its peak, is downsizing. When efficiency-gains occur without robust demand,there is a drag on the economy. The coming public policy reform of health care is likely to make the industry's restructuring,which has barely begun, more abrupt. Neal M.Soss Rosanne M. Cahn Darwin L. Beck Zwen A. Goy Suhas L. Ketkar CS FIRST BOSTON U.S. Economic Forecast Quarterly Percent Changes at Compound Annual Rates February 8, 1994 1993 1994E 40 to 40 , Real Growth I 11 III IVP 1 II III IV 92 1 93 94E GDP 0.8 1.9 2.9 5.9 2.8 3.0 3.8 3.5 3.9 2.8 3.3 Consumer 0.8 3.4 4.4 4.0 2.1 2.2 3.7 2.8 4.0 3.1 2.7 Durables -1.3 10.8 7.6 14.7 2.5 3.2 10.4 5.4 9.7 7.7 5.3 Nondurables -2.1 2.7 3.7 2.6 1.1 1.1 2.6 2.2 3.6 1.7 1.7 ,Services 3.1 2.1 3.9 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.5 Residential Investment 1.5 -9.5 11.9 31.7 10.6 0.0 -1.7 -1.8 17.6 7.9 1.7 Business Investment 14.4 16.6 7.4 21.0 18.6 14.2 12.4 17.2 7.4 14.7 15.6 Equipment 19.9 19.8 10.0 24.6 23.4 17.2 14.8 21.0 11.4 18.4 19.1 Structures 0.5 8.1 0.3 10.7 5.0 5.2 5.1 5.1 -2.0 4.8 5.1 Federal Government -16.2 2.0 -6.2 -4.3 -9.7 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 0.4 -6.4 -5.1 State&Local Government 0.3 5.6 4.5 1.6 1.8 4.8 4.1 2.7 1.6 3.0 3.3 Percentage Point Contribution From: Net Exports -1.7 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.5 -1.1 -0.8 Nonfarm Inventories 1.7 -1.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 Nominal Growth GDP 4.4 4.3 4.4 7.4 5.7 5.7 6.5 6.1 6.7 5.1 6.0 Consumer Price Index 3.8 2.9 1.2 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.8 Disposable Personal Income -5.1 8.5 2.4 7.6 3.8 4.5 5.9 4.9 8.3 3.3 4.8 After Tax Profits(from 0.6 6.2 20.4 14.6 17.0 12.4 16.6 14.3 6.2 , year ago) Assumptions: Oil prices vary around$17.50 per barrel(West Texas Intermediate). The deficit-reduction act introduces a$30 billion drag,mostly tax hikes,in fiscal year 1994. Recent Economist Department Publications Title Author(s) Date Money Market Notes Darwin L.Beck Biweekly Insights Rosanne M.Cahn Weekly Economic Informe: The Principal Emerging Market Economies Suhas L.Ketkar Weekly Borrowing Picks Up in the Third Quarter Zwen A.Goy January 25, 1994 Update on Canada Suhas Ketkar-Kiran Datar January 27, 1994 International Economic Calendar--February Zwen A.Goy February 1, 1994 Early Warning Indicators--January Results Rosanne M.Cahn February 1, 1994 David Mullins to Leave Federal Reserve Board Darwin L:Beck February 1, 1994 Federal Budget Review and Treasury Borrowing Outlook Darwin L.Beck February 3, 1994 This memorandum is for informative purposes only.Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. While information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable,we do not represent it to be accurate or complete.This document may not be reproduced in whole or in part or otherwise made available without - our written consent.This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for,or solicit investment banking or other business from,any company mentioned.We or our employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any security referred to herein. - 01994,CS First Boston Corporation ' Economist Department Notes on the 1994 Outlook 1994 looks to be the best year for the world economy in quite a while. In the U.S. low interest rates have finally lit a spark in the interest-sensitive sectors of housing, furniture, appliances and autos, which made for the particularly strong economic growth in the last 4 or 5 months of'93. The first quarter of the new year should see some slowing from that rapid pace but solid momentum near 3% real GDP growth will continue. And capital spending, lately motivated by the urge to reduce reliance on labor, may get an added boost from capacity expanding motivations. To our north, the Canadians are getting export-led growth off the big drop in the Canadian dollar and the lift in our economy. Still-falling Canadian short-term interest rates will eventually get their domestic consumer demand going again, and Canada is a beneficiary from GATT and NAFTA. Look for 3-3%z% growth up there. To our south, Mexico is going to be able to finance as much imports as it wants because of NAFTA, and with elections coming up in the summer they're going to follow go-for-growth policies. They'll do better than 3%real in 1994 too. In the Pacific, Japan is still wandering in recession but China and Southeast Asia look set for more high single digit growth or better while Australia and New Zealand as big beneficiaries of GATT should solidify their recoveries. Europe is a mixed bag, with England already in recovery following the sterling devaluation a year ago, and much of the Continent needing (and likely to get) more interest rate cuts to kick off a slow but palpable recovery in the second half of the year. Growth in 1994 will be better than during the last several years but odds are it won't get out of hand, mainly because of fiscal tightening, which will amount to under %s% of GDP in the U.S. (courtesy of Clinton's taxes)and almost 1% of GDP for the G-7 as a whole. If the river boat gamble of the 1980s was Reagan cutting taxes to boost the supply side, the river boat gamble of the 1990s is Clinton and Major(and Kohl and Chretien)raising taxes to cut interest rates and boost the economy. So far the Clinton river boat gamble is working. 1993 was a year of low inflation: less than %2% for producer prices and less than 3% for consumer prices in the U.S. We expect a relatively low inflation environment to continue in 1994. Even in a low inflation period some prices do go up. In 1993 gold was up 17% and the CRB futures index was up 11%z%, mainly on crop losses from the Mississippi flood. The world economy could support some further commodities price gains in 1994. Even oil might surprise on the upside, from recent depressed levels. CS FIRST BOSTON Long-term interest rates tumbled in 1993; down about 100 basis points in the U.S. and Canada, 165 basis points in Japan and Germany, and 200-300 basis point in other developed countries. The bond rally has more to go in most countries but probably not in the U.S. in 1994 as our business expansion matures. But if the run in U.S. bonds is probably over, the run in U.S. stocks isn't. Fifteen percent profits growth, the capital gains tax advantage, and a revival of M&A are all good 1994 news for the stock market to follow 1993 in which the Dow Jones Industrials rose about 14%. Re-equitization, now 2%z years old, looks set to persist in 1994 as well. Taxable bonds are not likely to repeat their spectacular 1993 performance but a stable inflation environment should keep bond yields near current levels. The damage is to be expected in short-term interest rates where 50 basis points of Fed tightening through the year could translate into 100 basis points or more of setback at the monthly 2-year note auctions. The whole front end could get dyspeptic when some of 1993's 2-year notes are under water as 1994 year bills. (Yield curve flattening a la 1993 with long rates coming down against a fixed short rate is a lot more fun than yield curve flattening a la 1994 where short rates back up more than long rates.) The muni market should outperform other fixed income markets in 1994 as higher personal income tax rates become more real with every passing paystub. A solid North American economy and an upward nudge on the federal funds rate should strengthen the dollar in 1994. Last year the dollar gained from 2 to 7%against major European currencies but lost 10% of its value versus the Japanese yen. 1994 should see the dollar climb back versus the yen and continue to trend gently higher versus Europe. Neal M. Soss Managing Director and Chief Economist January 3, 1994 This memorandum i8 for informative purposes only.Under no circumsunces u it to be used or considered s an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. While information herein has been obtained from sou ovs believed to he reliable,we do not represem it to he accurate or complete.This docmnem may not be reproduced in whole or in pan or otherwise made available without our written corisent.This firm may from time to time perform mwstmem banking or other services for,or solicit invesunem banking or other busires from,any company mentioned.We or our employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any security referred to herein f)1994,The First Boston Corporation Kiran Datar Ext.7526 Economist Department GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS 2/18/94 U.S. U.K. GER FRA JAP CAN MEX AUS NZ ECU 3-month 1 3.35 5.41 5.97 5.96 2.05 3.72 9.34 4.69 4.64 6.19 3-year 4.92 5.48 5.21 5.38 2.31 5.18 10.402 6.01 5.53 5.56 5-year 5.51 5.78 5.26 5.40 3.02 6.01 6.51 5.80 5.64 10-year 6.08 6.43 5.84 - 5.90 3.98 6.85 6.64 6.08 6.19 YIELD CHANGES SINCE 2/11/94 fb.D.l U.S. U.K. GER FRA JAP CAN MEX AUS NZ ECU 3-month 3 22 3 -35 -20 -9 -85 2 23 -12 3-year 13 -14 6 14 -17 44 -10 21 60 -6 5-year 19 -15 -1 7 -3 46 29 56 -4 10-year 21 -15 15 13 27 31 6 43 14 YIELD CHANGES SINCE 2/19/93 fb.o.l U.S. U.K. GER FRA JAP CAN MEX AUS NZ ECU 3-month 17 -78 -241 -579 -126 -222 -963 -111 -319 -337 3-year 49 -106 -122 -238 -99 -148 NA -126 -204 -190 5-year 23 -92 -115 -212 -70 -93 NA -136 -175 -181 10-year -8 -137 -89 -163 -37 -67 NA -169 -172 -152 FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES BREAKEVEN ERS FOR 3-YR BOND 3 10-YEAR REAL RATES Percent Change 6-month Hold to 2/18/94 2/11/94 2/5/93 Horizon Maturity._. 3.70 (6) US UK 1.483 1.2 2.1 1.4786 1.4587 3.96 (4) UK GER 1.712 2.5 -4.2 1.7145 1.7268 2.26 (9) GER FRA 5.824 2.2 -4.7 5.8365 5.9020 3.83 (5) FRA JAP 104.55 3.1 13.2 104.78 105.96 3.03 (7) JAP CAN 1.342 0.1 -6.2 1.3438 1.3523 5.54 (1) CAN MEX 3.104 0.0 -0.3 3.1870 3.6366 4.69 (2) AUS AUS 0.715 0.0 3.7 0.7115 0.6929 4.60 (3) NZ NZ 0.574 0.1 11.0 0.5721 0.5637 2.99 (8) ECU ECU 1.130 1.9 -4.7 1.1260 1.1085 l Eurocurrency rates except for Australia(bank bills),New Zealand(bank bills)and ECU(LIBOR). 2 Two year Cete Yield 3 Versus the 3-year U.S.Treasury. 4 Based on the latest 12-month CPI change. ECU inflation rate is the EC rate from Eurostat. This memorandum is for informative purposes only. Under no circmmances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. . While information herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable,we do not represent it to be accurate or complete.This document may not be reproduced in whole or in part or otherwise made available without our written consent This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for,or solicit investment banking or other business from,any company mentioned.We or our employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any security referred to herein. ®1994,The CS First Boston Corporation 1 CS FIRST BOSTON § � m . . mI § k A. Cl) Uk � [ � ƒ 2 2 va » e ! qk o>omm M#o 7ƒc >■�@z®EG S� k n o #oo, 2_A 5�o=zo§ \§(/� \\1K )8±\ M§ | /m §2 / °\}/ \ m c o ®r G no c ! § | <m ! 4 §« \ ] 2 m § . di> 22E co z . . . . 0 i k #/zmE7oo / \ `\ `( k k § � | k . M » ( + A#%� z oiJ 777) �CD0 ( °�§ ) / m 0 §Q U) � oaf )kk� Z< SS= ( (§e§ { ( � ƒ { c ! � §§ § ( ' 7 - ■mo>0oI . 0 ={o= m ® > . 3 § § > - § m � m > n ° ( � z m } � §(§ §§§ ) P.. \ , . m lozo « czo� 2 ®®z mf °°�> (n co §9 2 \ z / ( ( m 2 n 5 n - z �6,3 . n , � . � BROADCAST(Regular Distribution) Darwin L.Beck(212)909-3023 February 17, 1994 David Aserkoff(212)909-763417 Economist Department LJ ECONOMIC DATA EXPECTED February 21 to 25, 1994 Date/ Previous Estimates Time Indicator Period Market CS First Boston February 22 Federal Budget Deficit +$29.8B +$O.OB to+$25.OB +$1.OB Tues. (January) (Jan'93) 2:00 PM The January'94 surplus should fall to$1.0 billion versus a year ago because of a shift in last January's Social Security payments. February 24 Durable Goods Orders +2.2% -1.0%to+1.5% +1.3% Thur. Ex. Defense +2.0% +1.4% 8:30 AM Durable Orders should post another strong gain of 1.3% and 1.4% excluding defense in spite of the weather. This memorandum is for informative purposes only.Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. While information herein hes been obtained from sources believed to be reliable,we do not represent it to be accurate or complete.This document may not be reproduced in whole or in part or otherwise made available without our written consent.This firm may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for,or solicit investment batddng or other business from,any company mentioned.We or our employees may from time to time have long or short positions in any security referred to herein. ©1994,CS First Boston Corporation CS FIRST BOSTON c CS First Boston Market Calendar for Feb./March February 17, 1994 MONDAY TUESDAY WEDNESDAY S THURSDAY FRIDAY 10:00 Business Inventories 9:15 Industrial Prod CU 8:30 Housing Starts Permits 8:30 CPI total xfe y/y% +3.0 y/y'/o +4.7 +1.9 12m av 1.30mil 1.23mil y/y% +2.5 +2.9 3m av +0.3 3m av +0.7 82.7 3m av 1.42mil 1.40mil 3m av +0.2 +0.3 Nov +0.6 Dec +0.9 82.9 Dec 1.57mil 1.48mil Dec +0.2 +0.2 Dec +0.0 Jan +0.5 83.1 Jan 1.29mil 1.36mil Jan 0.0 +0.1 8:30 Merchandise Trade 2:30 2&5yr.note announce 12m av -9.6B ($17.0&11.0 bii) 3m av 9.3B Nov -9.7B Dec -7.4B 8:30 Initial Claims week ended: 4wk av 376 1/29 408 2/5 366 2/12 371 14 15 16 10:00 SurveyPhiladelphia Fed 17 18 PRES#DENT'S DAY 10 MI Con€arenas Board 8.30 Durable Ordana 10 Unly.o€Michigan tIS f�lAFxll�'t'��l-COED �C.bna tfid#na3 uftnl xdef': Cane.SenttmertC EEO 12tH av 65.4 .�G 3 +8,2 then ar 68.2 .tan 882 Dec s2 2 +2.0 .Ian(flcrel) 94:3 Fal= ma Jan{p} *13 +tri Feb(prelim} 9F.9 200 ,1$ud8e!Deffclt fi 30 Imiklal Claims Fats(final} na. 939 week ended FY 9d 4to date} X92;1 3 � x••; , 41wk av _•378 Jan 83 +529:8 715' :366 J 2119 t3a .. 1 as kyr Hato auct(at► iii 5yC nate atiGtian sa: t yr blltattncunr� 22 7 fa3 ..r... $11 ft 1711} 24 $16.5`til 25 10:00 Chicago Purchasing 8:30 GDP real Imp def 8:30 Personal Inc. PCE 8:30 Initial Claims 8:30 Employment rate Managers Index y/y% +2.8 +2.2 y/y'/o +5.3 +5.6 week ended: 12m av +158 6.8 - 93Q2 +1.9 +2.3 3m av +0.6 +0.5 4wk av 376 3m av +156 6.5 93Q3 +2.9 +1.6 Dec +0.6• +0.5 2/12 371 Jan +62 6.7 prelim 93Q4 +5.9 +1.3 Jan na na 2/19 na Feb na na rev. 93Q4 na na 2/26 na 10:00 Factory Orders 8:30 Leading Indicators AM Exist.Home Sales total xdef y/y% +1.1 y/9% +11.1 y/y% +3.6 +4.5 3m av +0.6 3m av +4.5 3m av +1.4 +1.5 Dec +0.7 Dec +6.7 Dec +1.2 +1.1 Jan na 28 Jan na Jan na na Const.Spending 10:00 NAPM Index PM Auto Sales 3:00 Treasury Stripping WOO +12.7 12m av 52.6 12m av 6.8mil Data 3m av +2.4 3m av 56.7 3m av 7.1 mil 4 Dec +2.6 Jan 57.7 Jan 7.3mil Jan na 1 Feb na 2 3 Feb - na yr. aucton ($16.5 bill PM Consumer Credit 10:00 Wholesale Inventories 8:30 Initial Claims 8:30 Retail Sales 12m av +$4.1 B y/y% +3.6 week ended: total xauto 3m av +$7.1 B 3m av +0.3 4wk av 376 y/y% +7.0 +4.9 Dec +$7.3B Dec +0.4 2/19 na 3m av +0.5 +0.3 Jan na Jan na 2/26 na Jan -0.5 -0.3 3/5 na Feb na na 10:00 Univ.of Michigan Cons.Sentiment 12m av 88.2 3m av 87.9 Feb(prelim) 92.9 Feb(final) na Mar(prelim) na 7 81 91 10 11 r (p)denotes CS First Boston projections. Coming Events: Feb 22 Fed Chair Greenspan to Appear before Congress for Humphrey-Hawkins Testimony Mar 9 Beige Book Released Mar 22 FOMC Meeting BROADCAST PAZ 6TH FLOOR & PUBLIC FINANCE WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 1994 MEZZANINE & ECONOMIST DEPARTMENT WEEKLY MUNICIPAL MARKET DIARY LONG-TERM RATES 1Yr. 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. 10 Yrs. 20 Yrs, 30 Yrs, Tax-Exempt* Aaa G.O. 2.35% 3.40% 3.80% 4.40% 5.10% 5.20% Aaa MBIA 2.50% 3.65% 4.05% 4.60% 5.30% 5.45% A Power 2.70% 3.80% 4.25% 4.80% 5.50% 5.60% Taxable Treasury 3.55% 4.43% 5.08% 5.72% 6.03% 6.33% *Note: AMT rates approximately 15 basis points higher. SHORT-TERM RATES 6 Mos. ]_Yr. 2 Yrs. 3 Yrs. 4 Yrs, 5 Yrs. Aaa Tender Bonds Tax-Exempt 2.30% 2.60% 3.65% 3.75% 4.00% 4.15% AMT 2.50% 2.80% 3.80% 3.90% 4.15% 4.30% Taxable MIG-1 Notes Tax-Exempt 2.15% 2.45% 3.50% 3.60% 3.90% 4.05% AMT Aaa VRDN P-1/A-1+ Daily 7 Dav 30 Day CP Tax-Exempt 2.00% 2.10% 2.15% PSA Swap Index (1/26) 2.25% AMT 2.20% 2.25% 2.25% Kenney S-T HI Gr. (2/1) 2.10% Taxable 3.20% 3.12% Bankers Tr.TENR (1/27) 2.20% TAXABLE RATES 3 Mo. LIBOR: 3.25% Federal Funds Rate: 3.18% 3 Mo.T-Bill(BEY): 3.07% 6 Mo. LIBOR: 3.44% Discount Rate: 3.00% 6 Mo.T-Bill(BEY): 3.27% Prime Rate: 6.00% 30 Day CD(BEY): 3.10% SWAP LEVELS FBC PAYS FIXED/FBC RECEIVES FIXED 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. 7 Yrs. 10 Yrs. 3 Mo.& 6 Mo. LIBOR 4.70%/4.72% 5.289/6/5.30% 5.48%/5.51% 6.00%/6.02% PSA Swap Index 3.22%/3.36% 3.660/6/3.84% 3.82%/4.01% 4.14%/4.35% MUNICIPAL FUTURES Contract Open Fair Market Closing Volume* Interest* close Chance Value Basis 40-Bond Index -- -- 104-14 -- -- -- Mar. Contract 2197 28,130 104-03 -19/32nds 103-17 -1/32nds June Contract 212 361 103-09 -19/32nds 102-05 -37/32nds *On 1/31 MARKET INDICES Market Indices 2/1/94 1/25/94 1993/4 High 1993/4 Low Bond Buyer 30-Day Vis.Supply 5.925b 6.177b $9.906b (03/24) $2.014b (09/02) Blue List of Curr. Muni Off'gs 1.668b 1.855b $2.206b (09/30) $0.750b (02/24) Bond Buyer 40-Bond Yield 5.45% 5.51% 6.40% (01/08) 5.34% (10/15) Weekly Market Indices 1/27/94 1/20/94 1993/4 High 1993/4 Low Bond Buyer 11-Bond Index 5.18% 5.20% 6.10% (01/14) 5.10% (10/21) f Bond Buyer 20-Bond Index 5.28% 5.29% 6.19% (01/14) 5.20% (10/14) Bond Buyer Revenue Bond Index 5.50% 5.54% 6.44% (01/07) 5.41% (10/14) ALL RATES ARE REPRESENTATIVE LEVELS AS OF TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 1, 1994 UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED MUNICIPAL MARKET ECONOMIC NEWS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK OF JANUARY 31 1994 * 2/2 8:30 a.m. - Leading Indicators for December 10:00 a.m. - New Home Sales * 2/3 10:00 a.m. - Factory Orders for December * 2/4 8:30 a.m. - Payroll Employment Unemployment Rate for January ECONOMIC NEWS * The Commerce Department reported Durable Goods Orders rose 2.2% in December, and the Labor Department reported initial unemployment claims fell 56,000 to 309,000. * Real GDP rose by 5.9%, well above the market's expectation of 5.4% and the largest rise r since the 4th quarter of 1987. The price deflator was up only 1.3%, the lowest since 1967. Market expectations were for a 2.5% increase in the deflator. * Personal Income for December increased 0.6% and Personal P was Consumption u 0.5%. P * National Association of Purchasing Managers Index increased to 57.7% for January from 57.1% in December. * Construction Spending increased 2.6% in December, the 8th consecutive monthly gain. Richard A. Tilghman, Jr. Municipal Financial Products 32640010.CTB BROADCAST PAZ 6TH FLOOR & PUBLIC FINANCE WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 1994 MEZZANINE & ECONOMIST DEPARTMENT WEEKLY MUNICIPAL MARKET DIARY LONG-TERM RATES 1 SCC. 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. 10 Yrs. 20 Yrs. 30 Yrs. Tax-Exempt* Aaa G.O. 2.45% 3.30% 4.00% 4.55% 5.20% 5.30% Aaa MBIA 2.50% 3.65% 4.05% 4.75% 5.40% 5.50% A Power 2.70% 3.80% 4.25% 4.95% 5.60% 5.70% Taxable Treasury 3.84% 4.82% 5.36% 5.96% 6.20% 6.45% *Note: AMT-rates approximately 15 basis points higher. SHORT-TERM RATES 6 Mos. ]fit. 2Y[s. 3 Yrs. 4 Yrs. 5 Yrs. Aaa Tender Bonds Tax-Exempt 2.30% 2.60% 3.65% 3.75% 4.00% 4.15% AMT 2.50% 2.80% 3.80% 3.90% 4.15% 4.30% Taxable ' MIG-1 Notes Tax-Exempt 2.15% 2.45% 3.50% 3.60% 3.90% 4.05% AMT Aaa VRDN P-1/A-1+ Dally Lou 30 Day CP Tax-Exempt 2.30% 2.30% 2.25% PSA Swap Index (2/2) 2.10% AMT 2.35% 2.40% 2.50% Kenney S-T HI Gr. (2/8) 2.35% Taxable 3.4016/0 3.45% Bankers Tr.TENR (2/3) 2.10% TAXABLE RATES 3 Mo. LIBOR: 3.56% Federal Funds Rate: 3.25% 3 Mo.T-Bill(BEY): 3.30% 6 Mo. LIBOR: 3.75% Discount Rate: 3.00% 6 Mo.T-Bill(BEY): 3.48% Prime Rate: 6.00% 30 Day CD(BEY): 3.32% SWAP LEVELS FBC PAYS FIXED/FBC RECEIVES FIXED 3 Yrs. A Yrs. 7 Yrs. 10 Yrs 3 Mo.&6 Mo. LIBOR 5.030/9/5.05% 5.59%/5.61% 5.820/6/5.85% 6.280/o/6.301% PSA Swap Index 3.480/6/3.631% 3.850/6/4.05% 4.020/6/4.221/0 4.33%/4.55% MUNICIPAL FUTURES Contract Open Fair Market Closing Volume* Interest* Close Change Value BASILS 40-Bond Index -- -- 103-04 -- -- -- Mar.Contract 7411 25,902 102-07 -12/32nds 102-1322 29/32nds June Contract 52 634 101-12 -14/32nds 101-08 -56/32nds *On Z7 MARKET INDICES Market Indices / / 2/1/94 1993/4 Hiah 1993/4 Low Bond Buyer 30-Day Vis.Supply 5.031 b 5.925b $9.906b (03/24) $2.014b (09/02) Blue List of Curr.Muni Off'gs 1.984b 1.668b $2.206b (09/30) $0.750b (02/24) Bond Buyer 40-Bond Yield 5.49% 5.45% 6.40% (01/08) 5.34% (10/15) Weekly Market Indices 2/3/94 1/27/94 1993/4 Hiah 1993/4 Low Bond Buyer 11-Bond Index 5.16% 5.18% 6.10% (01/14) 5.10% (10/21) Bond Buyer 20-Bond Index 5.25% 5.28% 6.19% (01/14) 5.20% (10/14) Bond Buyer Revenue Bond Index 5.49% 5.50% 6.44% (01/07) 5.41% (10/14) ALL RATES ARE REPRESENTATIVE LEVELS AS OF TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 81994 UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED MUNICIPAL MARKET ECONOMIC NEWS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 7, 1994 * 2/11 8:30 a.m. - Producer Price Index for January - Retail Sales for January ECONOMIC NEWS * The index of Leading Indicators rose 0.7% in December to its highest level in a year, while single family Home Sales jumped 11.4% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 862,000, the highest level since March 1986. * Factory Orders for December increased 1.2%. * The Labor Department report nonfarm Payroll Employment rose just 62,000 in January, well below forecasts for a rise of about 200,000. The unemployment rate for January increased to 6.7% from 6.4% in December. * Wholesale Inventories for December decreased 0.6%. Richard A. Tilghman, Jr. Municipal Financial Products 32640010.CTB i BROADCAST PAZ 6TH FLOOR & PUBLIC FINANCE WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 16,1994 MEZZANINE & ECONOMIST DEPARTMENT ' WEEKLY MUNICIPAL MARKET DIARY LONG-TERM RATES 1Yr. 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. 10 Yrs. 20 Yrs. 30 Yrs, Tax-Exempt* Aaa G.O. 2.70% 3.55% 4.00% 4.55% 5.20% 5.30% Aaa MBIA 2.80% 3.75% 4.05% 4.80% 5.50% 5.60% A Power 2.90% 3.95% 4.25% 5.00% 5.65% 5.75% Taxable Treasury 3.83% 4.78% 5.33% 5.87% 6.16% 6.45% *Note: AMT rates approximately 15 basis points higher. SHORT-TERM RATES Mos. lYrs Yr. 2 . 3 Yrs. 4 Yrs. 5 Yrs. Aaa Tender Bonds Tax-Exempt 2.80% 3.10% 3.70% 3.85% 4.05% 4.30% AMT 3.00% 3.30% 3.90% 4.05% 4.25% 4.50% Taxable MIG-1 Notes Tax-Exempt 2.70% 3.00% 3.60% 3.75% 3.95% 4.20% AMT Aaa VRDN P-1/A-1+ Pally LQU 30 Day CP Tax-Exempt 2.50% 2.45% 2.45% PSA Swap Index (2/9) 2.36% AMT 2.60% 2.55% 2.65% Kenney S-T Hi Gr. (2/15) 2.45% Taxable 3.45% 3.47% Bankers Tr.TENR (2/10) 2.30% TAXABLE RATES 3 Mo. LIBOR: 3.56% Federal Funds Rate: 3.50% 3 Mo.T-Bill(BEY): 3.33% 6 Mo.LIBOR: 3.75% Discount Rate: 3.00% 6 Mo.T-Bill(BEY): 3.52% Prime Rate: 6.00% 30 Day CD(BEY): 3.38% SWAP LEVELS FBC PAYS FIXED/FBC RECEIVES FIXED 3 Yrs. 5 Yrs. 7 Yrs. 10 Yrs, 3 Mo.&6 Mo. LIBOR 5.00%/5.03% 5.560/6/5.599% 5.800/6/5.82% 6.20%/6.23% PSA Swap Index 3.450/6/3.619% 3.830/6/4.02% 3.989/6/4.19% 4.260/6/4.489% MUNICIPAL FUTURES Contract Open Fair Market Closing Volume* Interest* Close Chanae Value Basis 40-Bond Index -- -- 102-26 -- -- -- Mar.Contract 2281 25,276 102-08 +3/32nds 102-07 18/32nds June Contract 547 1,729 101-16 +4/32nds 101-03 -42/32nds *On 2/14 MARKET INDICES Market Indices 2/15/94 2/8/94 1993/4 Hiah 1993/4 Low Bond Buyer 30-Day Vis.Supply 4.489b 5.031 b $9.906b (03/24) $2.014b (09/02) Blue List of Curr. Muni Off'gs 2.013b 1.984b $2.206b (09/30) $0.750b (02/24) Bond Buyer 40-Bond Yield 5.52% 5.49% 6.40% (01/08) 5.34% (10/15) Weekly Market Indices 2/10/94 2/3/94 1993/4 Hiah 1993/4 Low Bond Buyer 11-Bond Index 5.27% 5.16% 6.10% (01/14) 5.10% (10/21) Bond Buyer 20-Bond Index 5.36% 5.25% 6.19% (01/14) 5.20% (10/14) Bond Buyer Revenue Bond Index 5.58% 5.49% 6.44% (01/07) 5.41% (10/14) ALL RATES ARE REPRESENTATIVE LEVELS AS OF TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 151994 UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED MUNICIPAL MARKET cr ECONOMIC NEWS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 14, 1994 * 2/16 8:30 a.m. - Housing Starts Housing Permits for January * 2/17 8:30 a.m. - Consumer Price Index for January ; - Merchandise Trade for December ECONOMIC NEWS * Producer Price Index rose a modest 0.2% in January, and 0.4% excluding food and energy prices. * Retails Sales in January fell 0.5%, breaking a string of increases dating back to last April as consumers cut back on purchases of autos and other durable goods. Excluding autos, Retail Sales dropped 0.3% in January. * Business Inventories were unchanged in December after increasing 0.6% during November to $874.55 billion. * Industrial Production rose by 0.5% in January, the eighth consecutive month of increase. Capacity Utilization increased to 83.1%for January, the highest rate since 83.2% in August 1989. Richard A. Tilghman, Jr. Municipal Financial Products 32640010.CTB r BROADCAST PAZ 6TH 'FLOOR&PUBLIC FINANCE WEDNESDAY,FEBRUARY 23, 1994 MEZZANINE & ECONOMIST DEPARTMENT WEEKLY MUNICIPAL MARKET DIARY LONG-TERM RATES a.Yx. ILILL L Yrs- 10 Yi8. 20 Yra, ,30Yrs, Tax-Exempt* Asa G.O. 2.80°k 3.700/0 4.10% 4.70% 5.400/a, 5.50% Asa MBIA 2.85% 3.90% 4.30% 5.00% 5.600/* 5.70% A Power 2.95% 4.10% 4.50% 5.20% 5.80% 5.90% Taxable Treasury 3.900/9 4.91% 5.48% 6.04% 6.32% 6.600/0 *Note: AMT rates approximately 1S basis points higher. SHORT-TERM RATES _ tea. ].Yt. &IM 2.xm AIM AIM Ass Tender Bonds Tax-Exempt 2.80% 3.10% 3.85% 4.00% 4.20% 4.45% AMT 3.00% 5.301% 4.05% 4.20% 4.40% 4.65% Taxable ' Mia-1 Notes Tax-Exempt 2.709' 3.00% 3.75% 3.90% 4.10% 4.35% AMT Asa VRDN P-1/A-1+ 2111X Z.Dmc 30 Day CID Tax-Exempt 2.201% 2.50% 2.45% PSA Swap Index (2/16) 2.48% AMT 2.25% 2.60% 2.65% Kenney S-T Hi Or. (2/22) 2.46% Taxable & S.45% 5.470,6 Bankers Tr.TENR (2/17) 2.50116 TAXABLE RATES 3 Mo. LIBOR: 3.63% Fadarai Funds Rats: 3.9194 9 Mo.T-0111(BEY): 3.34'X. 6 Mo.LIBOR: 3.85% Discount Rata: 3.00% 5 Mo.T-8111(BEY): 3.61% Prime Rate: 6.00% 30 Day CD(BEY): 3.42% SWAP LEVELS FBC PAYS FIXED/FBC RECEIVES FIXED LY11. �ILL IiGtISE. 14.Y�. 3 Mo.&6 Mo.LIBOR 5.13%/5.16% 5.7096/5.73% 5.950/0/5.98% 6.36%/6.390/9 PSA Swap Index 3.53%13.69% 3.9396/4.13% 4.11W4.320/0 4.3846/4.61% MUNICIPAL FUTURES - Contract Open Fair Market Closing Volume* moi: MM Chams Y" gala 40•Sond Index -• 101-00 -- Mar.Contract 10,388 24,274 100-27 t3/32nds 100-16 16/32nds June Contract 1.603 2,920 09-29 +2/32nds 99-11 -53/32nds *On 2118 MARKET INDICES Market!Aces 21M &am 1993/4 Nlah 1993/4 Low Bond Buyer s0-Day Vis.Supply 3.585b 4.489b $9.906b (03/24) $2.014b (09/02) Blue List of Curr.Muni Off'gs 2.103b 2.013b $2.206b (09/30) 60.750b (02/24) Bond Buyer 40-Bond Yield 5.59% 5.52% 6.40% (01/08) 5.34% (10/15) Weekly Markel indices 2117/04 2/10/94 1"S/4 High 192314 Lo Bond Buyer 11-Bond Index 5.33% S.27% 6.10% (01/14) 5.1096 (10/21) Bond Buyer 20-Bond Index 5.42% 5.56% 6.19% (01/14) 5.20% (10/14) Bond Buyer Revenue Bond index 5.84% 5.58% 6.44% (01/07) 5.41% (10114) ALL RATES ARE REPRESENTATIVE LEVELS AS OF TUESDAYS FEBRUARY 221994 UNLESS OTHERWISE INDICATED MUNICIPAL MARKET ECONOMIC NEWS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 21,1994 2/24 8:30 a.m. • Durable Goods Orders for January ECONOMIC NEWS Housing Starts fell 17.6%to a 1.294 million unit annual rate in January reported the Commerce Department. Building Permits also fell in January by 7.99'x. Consumer Price Index was unchanged in January, the first such occurrence since August 1989. Analysts were expecting a rise of 0.3%. The core rate (excluding food& energy) increased by 0.1°!x. • The Merchandise Trade deficit in December narrowed to $7.4 billion,the lowest level in a year despite weak economic activity overseas that has dampened demand for U.S. exports. Richard A.Tilghman,Jr. Municipal Financial Products #264tlO10.�t'!t l i Wednesday, February 16, 1994 11 :54AI-1 _= VERIFICATION WIRE -_ MSS Master Message #775374 TO: CS First Boston (Manager) RE: $337,365,000 COUNTY OF CONTRA COSTA TAXABLE PENSION OBLIGATION BONDS, 1994 SERIES A WE HAVE RECEIVED THE WRITTEN AWARD. TRADE DATE WILL BE TODAY, WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 1994. CUSIPS TO FOLLOW. FINAL AMOUNTS ARE AS FOLLOWS: y MOODY'S: Al. S&P: AA- DATED: 02/01/1994 FIRST COUPON: 06/41/1994 DUE: 06/01 APPROX. SPREAD ADD'L TREAS. TREAS. VS. MATURITY AMOUNT COUPON YIELD TAKDWN COUPON YIELD TREAS. 06/01/1995 590M 4,35°X. 4.37 $2.50 4 1/8 6/95 4.07 +30 06/41/1996 3,2451-1 4,90% 4.90 $2.50 7 7/8 7/96 4.60 +30 06/01/1997 4,920M 5.20% 5.24 $2.50 6 3/8 6/97 4.89 +35 06/01/1998 6,715M 5.55% 5.56 $2.50 5 1/8 6/98 5.21. +35 46/01/1999 8,705M 5.84% 5.82 $2.50 6 3/8 7/99 5,42 +40 ►� �J 06/01/2000 10,915M 5,95% 5.96 $3.00 8 7/8 5/00 5.51 +45 06/01/2001 13,350M 6,201 6.23 $3.00 8.00 5/01 5.68 +55 06/01/2042 16,06011 6.30% 6.34• $3.00 7 1/2 5/02 5.79 +55 06/01/2003 19,045M 6.40% 6.45 $3.00 10 3/4 5/03 5.85 +60 06/01/2004 22,340M 6.50% 6.55 $3.50 5 7/8 2/04 5.87 +68 06/01/2005 25,975-11 6.55% 6.60 $3.50 5 7/8 2/04 5.87 +73 06/01/2006 29,970M 6.65% 6.67 $3.50 5 7/8 2/04 5.87 +80 06/01/2007 34,375M 6.70"X. 6.72 $3.50 5 7/8 2/04 5.87 +85 06/01/2011 141 , 160M#* 6.85% 6.95 $3.50 5 7/8 2/04 5.87 +•108 (Pot approx. 105,730M, Mgr. retention see below) CALL FEATURES: Non-callable for life Mandatory sinking fund by lot beginning 6-1-08. Average life approximately 15.5 yrs. (8-30-09) see Preliminary Official statement for details. N.B. 2011 maturity will be -- priced to the average life versus the new ten year treasury. The Written Award is expected Late Tuesday, February 15, 1994. Tickets will be written Wednesday, February 16, 1994. This Issue_ is Book Entry through DTC. Delivery is firm for March 1 , 1994. y CS First Boston Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated Smith Barney Shearson By: CS First Boston New York, NY Wednesday. February 16. 1994 11 :54AM C:) IVA o—0 ,60 via o 4EA 1? 66 co o bZ 16A 5 .:o Aaj) tJ7 w ro 0 Ln Isis 'Ri. ... .... TT ass..; O -.g O 4. 5 cc cn ca O gl .0 M PIC% O is -il, 1,�i� lis l." is O 'A Q) co • w Q@ Lf) O ca Fl. I.." is • ...... . . ... iK, ro US c.. 41— tz W .... ..... tr ti ..... ..... ... ...... .. . ..... .... .... ..... ...... .....�: ..... .. .... .... ... ...... ..... ...... ...... ....... ...... ...... ..... ........ Lo RR Sari O . .... ..... ...... O 0 K.K., . ..... ..... "idl14 . 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In the opinion of Orrick,Herrington&Sutcliffe,Bond Counsel, baud upon an anal*of existing laws,regulations,rulings,and court decisions,intern on the Bondi it exempt from Scace of California personal income taxes. Bond Counsel expresses no opinion as to sbt exclusion from gross income for federal income tax purports of interest on the Bonds or regarding sur otber federal or nate tax conrequenca relating to the accrual or receipt of inure on the Bonds. See 'TAX MATTERS"bertin. $337,365,000 COUNTY OF CONTRA COSTA, CALIFORNIA TAXABLE PENSION OBLIGATION BONDS, i'C...N1994 SERIES A �.. Dated: February 1, 1994 Due: June 1,as shown below The County of Conte Costa Taxable Pension Obligation Bonds, 1994 Series A (the "Bonds") will be dated February 1, 1994, and will mature in the years and amounts as set forth below. Pursuant to the County Employees Retirement Law of 1937, as amended (the "Retirement Law"), the County Board of Supervisors is obligated to appropriate and make payments to the County of Contra Costa Employees' Retirement Association (the "Association") for pension benefits accruing to members of the Association. In respect of such statutory obligation, the County of Contra Costa (the "County") will execute a debenture (the "Debenture"), dated as of March 1, 1994, in favor of the Association. The Bonds are being issued pursuant to a Trust Agreement,dated as of February 1, 1994 (the "Trust Agreement")by and between the County and First Interstate Bank of California, as trustee (the "Trustee"), to refund the obligations from the County to the Association evidenced by the Debenture. The Bonds are absolute and unconditional obligations imposed upon the County by law. The Bonds are not limited a to payment to any special source of funds of the County. THE BONDS DO NOT CONSTITUTE AN OBLIGATION OF THE COUNTY FOR WHICH THE COUNTY IS OBLIGATED TO LEVY OR PLEDGE ANY FORM OF TAXATION. NEITHER THE BONDS NOR THE OBLIGATION OF THE COUNTY TO MAKE PAYMENTS WITH RESPECT TO THE BONDS CONSTITUTE A DEBT OR AN INDEBTEDNESS OF THE COUNTY, THE STATE OR ANY OF ITS POLITICAL SUBDIVISIONS WITHIN THE MEANING OF ANY CONSTITUTIONAL OR STATUTORY DEBT LIMITATION OR RESTRICTION. The Bonds arc subject to optional and mandatory redemption prior to maturity as described herein. Interest on the Bonds will be payable semiannually on June 1 and December 1 of each year,commencing June 1, 1994. The Bonds will be initially delivered in book-entry form, registered in the name of Cede & Co. as nominee of The Depository Trust Company, New York, New York ("DTC"), in denominations of 55,000 or any integral multiple thereof. Principal, premium, if any, and interest due on the Bonds will be paid by the Trustee to DTC. DTC is required to remit such principal and interest to its participants for disbursement to the beneficial owners of the Bonds. See "THE BONDS— Book-Entry-Only System." PAYMENT DATES, PRINCIPAL AMOUNTS, INTEREST RATES,YIELDS AND PRICES $196,205,000 Serial Bonds Payment Principal Interest Payment Principal Interest pal£ Amount &M YI.CIA Price DAM Amount BSC LLW Priee 06/01/95 5590,000 4.35% 4.37% 99.970 06/01/01 $13,350,000 6.20% 6.23% 99.815 06/01/96 3,245,000 4.90 4.90 100.000 06/01/02 16,060,000 6.30 6.34 99.733 06/01/97 4,920,000 5.20 5.24 99.873 06/01/03 19,045,000 6.40 6.45 99.643 06/01/98 6,715,000 5.55 5.56 99.953 06/01/04 22,340,000 6.50 6.55 99.617 06/01/99 8,705,000 5.80 5.82 99.900 06/01/05 25,975,000 6.55 6.60 99.594 06/01/00 10,915,000 5.95 5.96 99.937 06/01/06 29,970,000 6.65 6.67 99.820 06/01/07 34,375,000 6.70 6.72 99.812 _ i $141,160,000 6.85° Term Bonds Due June 1, 2011@ 6.95° Yield and 98.989 Price (plus accrued interest from February 1, 1994) 7be Bonds will be offered when, as and if executed and delivered to the Underwriters, subject to the approval of validity by Orrick, Herrington &Sutcliffe. Certain legal matters will be passed upon for the Underwriters by O'Melveny &Myers and for the County by County Counsel. The Bonds, in book-entry forth, will be available for delivery in New York,New York on or about Marsh 1, 1994. CS FIRST BOSTON MORGAN STANLEY & CO. SMITH BARNEY SHEARSON INC. INCORPORATED THIS COVER PAGE CONTAINS CERTAIN INFORMATION FOR QUICK REFERENCE ONLY. INVESTORS MUST READ THE ENTIRE OFFICIAL.STATEMENT TO OBTAIN INFORMATION ESSENTIAL TO THE MAKING OF AN INFORMED INVESTMENT DECISION. February 16, 1994 R .0 goa gQ dim O • u4 u ow u m 000 m u.+ m p M Q a� 1yy4++yqU E OT. I •i 1 •i ■ 1 01 1 A ■ I 1 ■ I o 1 0 ■ I b 1 b ■ 1 A 1 q ■ i h 1 N M 1 rl 1 rl ■ 1 M 1 M ■ 1 M 1 M ■ 1 1 ■ 1 1 ■ 1 1 ■ ONb OOOb in vm OI(1d OnOrn R 00 14 Oh O ei O O in•i O It O ei M bm y1 oav CO M 1 R O 1 10 01 Ifl V CI O Y1 0 mO p 1 10 01 e■.■Ov VL ly' m a j Mmm nMdm M vai • • 1 M 1 IM�1 M O v ! 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