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Home My WebLink AboutRESOLUTIONS - 01011981 - 1981-399 IN THE BOARD OF SUPERVISORS OF CONTRA COSTA COUNTY, STATE OF CALIFORNIA In the Matter of Establishing Countywide ) Median Household Income for 1981 ) RESOLUTION NO. $1/ 399 WHEREAS the City of Pittsburg (the "City") has engaged in a home mortgage finance program (the "Program") pursuant to Part 5 of Division 31 of the Health and Safety Code of the State of California (the "Act") in cooperation with the County of Contra Costa (the "County") and various cities within the County, and has issued revenue bonds pursuant to the Act to provide funds for the Program; and WHEREAS the Act requires that eligibility criteria for mortgagors shall include a maximum household income which may be derived from the countywide median household income; and WHEREAS in Resolution No. 80/1058 the Board of Supervisors of the County found and determined that the median household income for the County for 1980 was $30, 500; and WHEREAS the members of the Board of Supervisors of the County have reviewed and considered the report attached hereto of Mills- Carneghi Incorporated., consultants in real estate and urban economics, entitled "Median Household Income Contra Costa County, 1981" ; NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the Board of Supervisors of the County of Contra Costa as follows : 1. Based on the December 30, 19$0 report of Mills- Carneghi Incorporated, the Board of Supervisors hereby finds and determines that for the purposes of the Act and the Program adopted pursuant thereto, the median household income for the County for 1981 shall be $32, 500 . 2. This Resolution shall take effect from and after its adoption. PASSED AND ADOPTED by the Board on April 7 , 1981, by the following vote : AYES : Supervisors Fanden, Schroder, McPeak, Torlakson, Powers . NOES: None ABSENT• NoneCERTIFIED COPY I� certify that this is a full, tn" correct copy of the Original document (,n fi:�in my cz{ic ,and that it was passed kz ._ nd �, :(a Boyd cf Sup ct of Isc,rs Contra COcrn :n 'he dnee shown. TTa:ST � (' u--officio officio Clerk Clerk. Orig: Administrator """" ` ' cc: Director of Planning RESOLUTION NO. $1j 399 MI LLS-CARNEGH INCORPORATED CONSULTANTS IN REAL ESTATE & URBAN ECONOMICS Arlen C. Mills, MAI CRE Christopher L. Carneghi William C. Hartwell Jr. MA! John C. Hanna Kathi M Ridley Lomence L Mansboch December 30 , 1980 Mr . S . Anthony Donato City Manager City of Pittsburg 2020 Railroad Avenue Pittsburg , CA 94565 Re : 80-M-158 Dear Mr . Donato : Attached is our research and analysis concerning the median household income in Contra Costa County for the year 1981 . Based on our research and analysis , it is our opinion that the median household income in Contra Costa County in 1981 will be $34 ,000 . If there are any questions concerning this report , please contact me or Mr. Larry Mansbach of this office . Sincerely , Chris Carneghi dk 235 MONTGOMERY ST. SUITE Q64•SAN FRANCISCO,CALIFORNIA 94104.415 398-2666 1922 THE ALAMEDA - SUITE 2 i 5 - SAN JOSE,CALIFORNIA 95126 . 408 - 246-10-40 V//j'?9 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I . INTRODUCTION 1 II . SURVEY OF 1981 ECONOMIC FORECASTS 1 III . DATA ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION 3 EXHIBITS Table 1 : Economic Forecasts for 1981 2 - 1 - Median Household Income - Contra Costa County , 1981 I . INTRODUCTION This report is concerned with determining the median house- hold income in Contra Costa County , California for 1981 . This information is necessary to establish the income limi - tations of households participating in the home financing program authorized by Assembly Bill 1355 . State law limits eligibility to persons or families with incomes not exceeding 120 percent of the median household income . In an earlier report , Mills -Carneghi Incorporated estimated the median household income in Contra Costa County for 1980 to be $30 , 500 . The methodology used to arrive at this figure involved analyzing and adjusting various measurements of in- come from several different sources . The income was then correlated to reach the final amount . However, since this report deals with a projection of income for a future time period , no actual measurements of income are available . Rather , several reputable economic forecasts are surveyed to determine how much of a change can be expected from the $30 , 500 figure for 1980 . II . SURVEY OF 1981 ECONOMIC FORECASTS Mills-Carneghi Incorporated has surveyed the economic fore- casts for 1981 prepared by the following organizations : A . Chase Econometrics B . Data Resources Incorporated C . U . C . L . A. Business Forecasting Project D . Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates E . Bank of America F . Crocker National Bank G . United California Bank Table 1 shows a summary of the relevant information from each forecast . ■ 8 /.399 2 Table 1 ECON0141C FORECASTS FOR 1981 % Increase Source Indicator Region 1981/1980 Chase Econometrics Total personal income U.S. 11.0 Data Resources Inc. Total personal income U.S. 10.6 Per capita personal income U.S. 9.6 University of California-- Total personal income U.S. 10.9 Los Angeles Total personal income Cal . 12.6 Wharton Econometric Private compensation per man hour U.S. 11.0 Bank of America Total personal income U.S. 10.3 Total personal income Cal . 12.0 Mean household income Cal . 16.7 Crocker National Bank Total personal income Cal . 11.8 United California Bank Total personal income U.S. 10. 5 Total personal income Cal . 12.9 Per capita personal income Cal . 11.0 Median family income Cal . 10.4 Median family income Bay Area* 11.0 * Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo Counties ■ 3 - Median Household Income _ Centra Costa; County., 1981 IIT . DATA ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION On a national basis , the 1981 over 1980 increase in total personal income forecasted by the various sources ranges from Chase ' s 9 . 6 percent to U. C . L . A. ' s 10.9 percent. Al - though Wharton forecasts an 11 . 0 percent increase in pri - vate compensation per man hour, this indication probably includes certain fringe benefits that are not considered as income to the worker. It is likely that the increase in direct income would be somewhat less than 11 . 0 percent . The increase in total personal income must be adjusted downward to reflect the per capita or the per household increase . Since population and households are expected to increase by approximately one to two percent during 1981 , the rates of growth- in personal and household in- come will be lower by approximately these same percent- ages . The Data Resources forecast shows the per capita income increase to be one percent lower than the total income increase . , It is assumed that the other forecasts could be similarly adjusted to account for population and household growth . Median household income on a national basis can therefore be expected to increase by approxi - mately nine to ten percent during 1981 . California is expected to show a larger percentage increase in total personal income than the nation as a whole , with increases ranging from 11 .8 to 12. 9 percent . The larger increase in income is due to both a higher rate of economic growth and inflation than what will be experienced nation- wide . Two of the bank forecasts also show incomes for family and household units . United California Bank pre- dicts a 10 .4 percent increase in family income while the Bank of America forecasts a 16 . 7 percent increase in mean household income . The large increase in the latter is due to the presence of two or more wage earners in many Cali - form a households . However, the former is considered to be a better measure for the purpose of this report since it represents median income . It is reasonable to expect that median household income in California will increase by approximately 10 to 11 percent during 1981 . The change in Bay Area median family income for 1981 as forecasted by United California Bank shows an 11 . 0 percent increase versus a 10 .4 percent gain in California as a whole . This is consistent with the historical trend of Bay Area families having higher incomes than the average for California . Although median household income is gen- erally lower than median family income , it is assumed that Median Household Income - Contra Costa County , 1981 the rates of ,increase are approximately equal . Thus , it is likely that the median household income in the Bay Area will increase by about 11 percent over the 3980 figure . Among the Bay Area counties , Contra Costa County has ex- perienced the fastest and largest growth during recent years . This growth has brought economic prosperity to the county , as documented by the latest state income tax statistics which show Contra Costa County ranking second in the state in median joint return income . Assuming the continuation of the existing healthy trends , the rate of growth in income for Contra Costa County will most likely be higher than the rate for the entire Bay Area . It is reasonable to expect that the median household in- come in Contra Costa County will increase by approximately 11 . 5 percent in 1981 . Based on the foregoilng data and analysis , it is the con- clusion of this report -that the median household income in Contra Costa County for 1981 will increase by .approxi - mately 11 . 5 percent over the 1980 amount to $34 . 000 . i 1 State of California franchise Tax. Board , Personal Income Tax Statistics , Comparison by County, 1978 Income Year �i i 4r�,�99