Loading...
HomeMy WebLinkAboutMINUTES - 12141993 - 1.103 i TO: BOARD OF SUPERVISORS _ SE Contra Phil Batchelor, County Administrator FROM: Costa j5 Count �. DATE: December 14, 1993 Y SUBJECT: Actuarial Study of County' s Self-Insurance Trust Funds SPECIFIC REQUEST(S)OR RECOMMENDATION(S)&BACKGROUND AND JUSTIFICATION RECOMMENDATIONS: 1. Receive this report on the actuarial analyses of the County' s self-insured workers' compensation, general liability and medical liability programs. 2. Reaffirm the goal of funding the County's self-insurance programs at the 80 to 90 percent confidence levels, if sufficient monies can be identified to meet this goal. FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS: Receipt of this report has no direct financial implications. However, greater funding is required to cover the County's liabilities at a confidence level higher than expected value. BACKGROUND: An actuarial study is conducted of the County' s self-insurance trust funds as of the end of each fiscal year. The objectives of the study are to estimate loss reserves for accidents that have occurred from the inception of the self-insurance plan through the end of that fiscal year; and to estimate the liabilities for losses occurring during the next fiscal year. The actuary recommends funding needed at expected value and different confidence levels. Expected value refers to the overall average level of losses estimated for a coverage year and approximates a 55 percent confidence level. Confidence level refers to the estimated probability that losses will not exceed the indicated reserve funding amount. The actuary recommends funding at the 80 to 90 percent confidence levels. Funding at those confidence levels is important to protect the County's financial solvency and ensure the County' s self-insurance programs are fiscally sound and able to meet financial obligations. This actuarial study finds the County' s combined self-insurance programs are funde at the 60 percent confidence level as of June 30, 1993 . CONTINUED ON ATTACHMENT: YES SIGNATURE: RECOMMENDATION OF COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF B RD OMMITT APPROVE OTHER SIGNATURE(S): ACTION OF BOARD ON December 14 , 1993 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED X OTHER VOTE OF SUPERVISORS I HEREBY CERTIFY THAT THIS IS A TRUE X UNANIMOUS(ABSENT AND CORRECT COPY OF AN ACTION TAKEN AYES: NOES: AND ENTERED ON THE MINUTES OF THE BOARD ABSENT: ABSTAIN: OF SUPERVISORS ON THE DATE SHOWN. Contact.:. Joseph J. Tonda - 646-2014 December 14 , 1993 CC: CAO Risk Management ATTESTEDDecember PHIL BATCHELOR,CLERK OF THE BOARD OF SUPERVISORS AND COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR M382 (10/88) BY u J�` �� DEPUTY pvr EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTRA COSTA COUNTY SELF-INSURANCE ACTUARIAL STUDY mT f Milliman & Robertson, Inc. €` ' Actuaries and Consultants RECEIVED DEC14 199 1, ' CLERK BOARD OF SUPERVISORS CONTRA COSTA.CO. ' EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTRA COSTA COUNTY SELF-INSURANCE ACTUARIAL STUDY Prepared for: Contra Costa County ' Martinez, California ' Prepared by: Milliman & Robertson, Inc. Pasadena, California December 2, 1993 ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. 1 . MILLIMAN &ROBERTSON, INC.. 1 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTRA COSTA COUNTY SELF-INSURANCE ACTUARIAL STUDY Milliman & Robertson, Inc. (M&R)was engaged by Contra Costa County (the County) to ' estimate the loss reserves for the County's self-insurance liabilities. Our primary conclusions and recommendations are as follows: ' 1. We estimate that a loss reserve of$56.360 million is needed to provide for the ' expected value of self-insurance liabilities incurred through June 30, 1993. Recognition of future investment income, assuming an annual yield on investments of 4.00%, would reduce this amount to $49.858 million. This amount is $1.455 million less than the total ' assets of$51.313 million in the County's self-insurance trust fund as of June 30, 1993. 2. The expected value estimate of liabilities is based on the assumption that future loss development patterns will be similar to past development. As such, it includes no ' provision for unanticipated adverse loss development. Reserve estimates corresponding to higher degrees of adequacy are summarized below: ' ESTIMATED RESERVE FOR LIABILITIES THROUGH JUNE 30, 1993 ' Discounted for Investment Probability Level Undiscounted Income Expected Value $56.360 $49.858 70% 61.029 54.038 ' 80% 63.591 56.342 90% 67.148 59.536 ' NOTE: 1. Amounts are in millions of dollars. 1 ' MILLIMAN &ROBERTSON,INC. The term probability level refers to the estimated probability that actual losses will not exceed the indicated reserve amount. The difference between the probability level and ' the expected value indications can be considered an adverse fluctuation reserve. Given the uncertainty and volatility of ultimate claim costs, such a reserve is an ' important element of a responsibly funded self-insurance plan. Variations from the expected value are likely and stem from two sources. The first ' source is the random nature of claims. We attempted to provide for the effects of random variation through the use of probability level factors. The second source of ' variation results from our assumption that the historical experience of the trust fund is indicative of the true mean value of future claims. The extent to which the true value ' varies from our selection provides additional uncertainty. The variation attributable to this latter source has not been quantified. ' There is a significant difference between funding recommendations and liability accruals for financial reporting. For funding purposes, a provision for adverse ' development is certainly advisable and appropriate. However, for liability accruals, which we understand represent the best estimate of future costs, the need for such a provision is not as obvious. Therefore, the expected value indications may provide a better basis for the reporting of liabilities. 3. We understand that the County has $51.313 million set aside for self-insurance ' liabilities as of June 30, 1993. Comparing this amount to the table above, the County has funded the program above the expected value level, i.e., roughly at the 60% probability level on a discounted basis. The implied reserve for adverse fluctuation is ' $1.455 million. ' 4. Our estimates of total losses during the 1993/1994 fiscal year are shown below: 2 ' MIL.LIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' ESTIMATED LOSSES DURING 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Discounted for ' Investment Probability Level Undiscounted Income ' Expected Value $20.762 $17.748 70% 24.280 20.852 80% 26.192 22.537 90% 28.855 24.880 NOTE: 1. Amounts are in millions of dollars. 5. In the last 12 months, the County has maintained its self-insurance funding probability ' level slightly above the expected value reserves. We suggest the County strive for an 80% to 90% probability level funding target. 6. These estimates contain no explicit provision for the additional workers' compensation benefits available to safety employees under Section 4850 of the Labor Code. The ' County currently has reserves for such benefits. The full impact of this statute is beyond the scope of this analysis. 7. Given the uncertainties of both the current claims environment and the insurance ' market, we recommend that the County monitor the self-insurance liabilities closely with an annual actuarial review. Inherent Variability There is a substantial degree of uncertainty inherent in all projections of future insurance losses. Despite this inevitable variability, the results presented in this report reflect our best professional judgment and are, in our opinion, as accurate as can be expected. 3 MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Data Sources All data used in this analysis were provided to us by the Risk Manager of Contra Costa County and was accepted without audit. However, throughout the analysis, any data that on the surface appeared inconsistent were examined closely and explanations from the County were sought. ' For a more detailed explanation of our analysis, we encourage a review of the complete report. Milliman & Robertson; Inc. Michael A. cMurray ' December 2, 1993 Fellow, Casualty Actuarial Society Member, American Academy of Actuaries Michael L. DeMattei Associate, Casualty Actuarial Society Member, American Academy of Actuaries 4 MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' CONTRA COSTA COUNTY SELF-INSURANCE ACTUARIAL STUDY Prepared for: Contra Costa County Martinez, California ' Prepared by: Milliman & Robertson, Inc. Pasadena, California December 2, 1993 MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CONTRA COSTA COUNTY ' SELF-INSURANCE ACTUARIAL STUDY ' This report presents the results of our actuarial analysis of Contra Costa County's (the ' County's) workers' compensation, general liability, and medical malpractice self-insurance programs. Scope of the Study 1 The rima objectives of this actuarial analysis were: primary J Y 1. To estimate the loss reserves for accidents that occurred from the inception of the self-insurance plan through June 30, 1993. 2. To estimate the liabilities for losses occurring during the 1993/1994 fiscal year. ' Summary of Results ' Our best estimate of the expected value of outstanding liabilities for losses incurred through June 30, 1993 is $56.360 million. This estimate is undiscounted, as it does not recognize the investment income that would be generated by a reserve fund of this amount. If the ' investment income was recognized, our discounted estimate would be $49.858 million, based on an annual rate of return of 4.00%. This rate of return was selected after a review of recent 1 County yields and the current Treasury Bill rates. ' Exhibit 1 summarizes the above estimates. In this exhibit we show our estimates by program and on a combined basis. In addition, we show the expected value of the estimates as well as the 70%, 80%, and 90% probability levels. All estimates are displayed on both a discounted and undiscounted basis. Again, a 4.00% annual rate of return was used to discount the estimates. To completely understand Exhibit 1, the terms "expected value" and "probability level" need to ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. be explained. The term "expected value" refers to the long-term trend in the level of losses estimated for the coverage year(s). The term 'probability level" refers to the approximate probability that actual losses for a particular coverage year or combination of coverage years will not exceed the indicated funding amount. The difference between the probability level and ' expected value indications can be considered an adverse fluctuation reserve. Given the uncertainty and volatility of ultimate claim costs, such a reserve is an important element of a reasonably funded self-insurance plan. ' Variations from the expected value are likely and stem from two sources. The first source is the random nature of claims. We attempted to provide for the effects of random variation through the use of probability level factors. The second reason for the variation results from our assumption that the historical experience of the trust fund is indicative of the true mean ' value of future claims. The extent to which the true value varies from our selection provides additional uncertainty. The variation attributable to this latter source is unquantifiable. ' In the previous two M&R analyses, the County was only able to provide historical loss data for the five most recent fiscal years. For the older fiscal years, only total losses were available. We therefore had to take the aggregate totals and estimate the distributions by fiscal year. This additional step of estimation introduced additional variability into our ultimate loss ' estimates. With this analysis the County was once again able to provide complete historical data for all fiscal years. Therefore the projections contained within this report have relatively less variability than the studies as of June 1992 and June 1991 resulting in lower probability level ultimates relative to the expected value ultimates. ' Our estimates of ultimate losses by coverage for the 1993/1994 coverage year are shown both discounted (4.00%) and undiscounted at various probability levels in Exhibit 2. Exhibit 3 ' shows our estimates by coverage of the fluctuation reserve amounts which would be required to bring the expected value reserve up to the indicated probability levels. ' Maior Assumptions 1. Estimates of the expected value of ultimate losses for past coverage years were ' based primarily on the assumption that future loss development patterns will be similar to those in the past. -2- MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. i 2. Estimates of fluctuation reserves for past coverage years were based on the assumption that the pure premiums (i.e., estimated ultimate losses per unit of exposure) are normally distributed around their mean. ' 3. Estimates of investment income on expected value reserves are based on the payout pattern exhibited by the County's actual loss payment experience. Investment income ' on the fluctuation reserves was estimated using the same payout pattern, but reduced by 20% to allow for the increased uncertainties. 4. Ultimate loss estimates for the 1993/1994 coverage year were based on estimated exposures and ultimate pure premiums. For medical malpractice, the County provided M&R with estimated 1993/1994 inpatient admissions. For the remaining programs, we ' assumed the 1993/1994 payroll increase will equal the 1992/1993 increase. The 1993/1994 ultimate pure premiums were selected based on the pure premiums implied by our loss selections for the prior years. To stabilize the projections, the 1993/1994 ' projections were not allowed to increase or decrease more than 15% over the current 1992/1993 estimates. Given the extreme uncertainty of the implied loss trends over the next 12 months, we feel this threshold is reasonable. ' 5. As noted before, the discounted liability estimates are based on the assumption that the County can earn a 4.00% annual yield on reserves invested prior to payment of ' the associated claims. The assumed annual rate of 4.00% was selected based upon a review of the County's trust fund yields for the past 12 months and the current Treasury Bill rates. ' Methodology ' Projections of expected value ultimate losses for past coverage years were based on the incurred loss development method, the cumulative paid loss development method, and the ' Bornhuetter-Ferguson method, as shown on Exhibits 5 through 19. The loss development methods involve projections of future changes in experience to date by coverage year, based on historical emergence patterns. The Bornhuetter-Ferguson method involves an analysis of the percentage of ultimate losses ' -3- ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON, INC. reported to date and an estimate of an expected value future pure premium to arrive at the ultimate premium by fiscal year. As indicated above, "pure premium" refers to the estimated ratio of ultimate losses to exposures. For example, in medical malpractice, an estimate of pure ' premium would be the ratio of ultimate losses to occupied beds for each fiscal year. To estimate the expected pure premium, we evaluated the historical ultimate pure premium at the current cost levels and made a selection based on average values. For the final premium, we ' added the reported pure premium to the percent of the expected value pure premium yet to be reported. Data Sources ' All data used in this analysis were provided to us by the Risk Manager of Contra Costa County and was accepted without audit. However, throughout the analysis, any data that appeared to be inconsistent were examined closely and explanations were sought. Variability of Results ' Any actuarial projection of losses produced by the highly volatile exposures of unlimited general liability, medical malpractice, and high retention workers' compensation is subject to a high degree of inherent variability. Among the causes of this variability are the unpredictable external factors which affect future inflation rates, litigation trends, and claim settlement patterns. The Margolin-Green reforms could also have an impact on workers' compensation projections. These reforms restructured many areas of workers' compensation and as a result, have caused substantial disruptions in development patterns In addition, the recent passage of ' reform bills by the California State Legislature will specifically affect workers' compensation losses. These examples imply that the relevance of historical development patterns is ' questionable, which also increases the potential variability associated with the projections. We believe actual results could differ significantly in either direction from the results projected in this analysis. Nevertheless, the results presented herein reflect our best professional judgment and are, in our opinion, as accurate as can be expected from any actuarial analysis. -4- MIMMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. 1 Recommendations 1 We understand that the County has funded $51.313 million toward its self-insurance liabilities 1 as of June 30, 1993. This indicates an existing reserve level higher than the discounted expected value reserve of$49.858 million as of June 30, 1993. The expected value reserve reflects an approximate 60% probability level reserve on a discounted basis. 1 Although the County has been able to maintain its self-insurance liability funding slightly above ithe expected value level during the last 12 months, we suggest that the County increase its funding toward higher probability levels. We reiterate our earlier recommendation that the 1 County strive for an 80% to 90% probability level range funding target for the program. 1 Given the demonstrated volatility of the self-insured exposure, we strongly recommend the County continue to closely monitor the workers' compensation and liability programs. We believe that this can be done most effectively with annual actuarial reviews. 1 Milliman & Robertson, Inc. Michael A. McMurray 1 December 2, 1993 Fellow, Casualty Actuarial Society Member, American Academy of Actuaries 1 1 Michael L. DeMattei Associate, Casualty Actuarial Society Member, American Academy of Actuaries 1 1 1 -5- 1 MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit I Page I of 7 Contra Costa County COMBINED PROGRAMS RESERVE ESTIMATE DISCOUNTED FOR ANTICIPATED INVESTMENT EARNINGS ASSUMING 4.00%ANNUAL YIELD Estimated Estimated Discounted Loss Investment Reserve Reserve Earnings Estimate LOSSES THROUGH 1992/1993 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $56,360 $6,502 $49,858 70% Probability Level 61,029 6,991 54,038 80% Probability Level 63,591 7,249 56,342 90% Probability Level 67,148 7,612 59,536 LOSSES DURING 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $20,762 $3,014 $17,748 70% Probability Level 24,280 3,428 20,852 80% Probability Level 26,192 3,655 22,537 90% Probability Level 28,855 3,975 24,880 TOTAL LOSSES THROUGH 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $77,122 $9,516 $67,606 70% Probability Level 85,309 10,419 74,890 80% Probability Level 89,783 10,904 78,879 90% Probability Level 96,003 11,587 84,416 NOTES: 1, Dollar amounts are in thousands. 2. This exhibit summarizes our reserve estimates for the past coverage years through June 30, 1993 and for the 1993/1994 coverage year. It shows full value reserve estimates and reserve estimates discounted for anticipated investment earnings, at several probability levels. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 1 Page 2 of 7 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION RESERVE ESTIMATE DISCOUNTED FOR ANTICIPATED INVESTMENT EARNINGS ASSUMING 4.00%ANNUAL YIELD Estimated Estimated Discounted Loss Investment Reserve Reserve Earnings Estimate LOSSES THROUGH 1992/1993 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $29,289 $3,890 $25,399 70% Probability Level 31,596 4,158 27,438 80% Probability Level 32,833 4,295 28,538 90% Probability Level 34,235 4,456 29,779 LOSSES DURING 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $12,496 $1,716 $10,780 70% Probability Level 14,359 1,918 12,441 80% Probability Level 15,358 2,028 13,330 90% Probability Level 16,494 2,152 14,342 TOTAL LOSSES THROUGH 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $41,785 $5,606 $36,179 70% Probability Level 45,955 6,076 39,879 80% Probability Level 48,191 6,323 41,868 90% Probability Level 50,729 6,608 44,121 NOTES:, 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 2. This exhibit summarizes our reserve estimates for the past coverage years through June 30, 1993 and for the 1993/1994 coverage year. It shows full value reserve estimates and reserve estimates discounted for anticipated investment earnings, at several probability levels. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 1 Page 3 of 7 Contra Costa County ' GENERAL LIABILITY RESERVE ESTIMATE DISCOUNTED FOR ANTICIPATED INVESTMENT ' EARNINGS ASSUMING 4.00%ANNUAL YIELD Estimated Estimated Discounted Loss Investment Reserve Reserve Earnings Estimate ' LOSSES THROUGH 1992/1993 COVERAGE YEAR ' Expected Value $19,554 $1,929 $17,625 70% Probability Level 20,972 2,063 18,909 ' 80% Probability Level 21,714 2,130 19,584 90% Probability Level 23,075 2,257 20,818 LOSSES DURING 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $7,078 $1,090 $5,988 ' 70% Probability Level 8,239 1,233 7,006 80% Probability Level 8,848 1,308 7,540 ' 90% Probability Level 9,959 1,445 8,514 ' TOTAL LOSSES THROUGH 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $26,632 $3,019 $23,613 70% Probability Level 29,211 3,296 25,915 ' 80% Probability Level 30,562 3,438 27,124 90% Probability Level 33,034 3,702 29,332 ' NOTES: 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 2. This exhibit summarizes our reserve estimates for the past coverage years through June 30, 1993 ' and for the 1993/1994 coverage year. It shows full value reserve estimates and reserve estimates discounted for anticipated investment earnings, at several probability levels. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 1 Page 4 of 7 ' Contra Costa County MEDICAL MALPRACTICE ' RESERVE ESTIMATE DISCOUNTED FOR ANTICIPATED INVESTMENT EARNINGS ASSUMING 4.00%ANNUAL YIELD Estimated Estimated Discounted Loss Investment Reserve Reserve Earnings Estimate ' LOSSES THROUGH 1992/1993 COVERAGE YEAR ' Expected Value $7,517 $683 $6,834 70% Probability Level 8,461 770 7,691 80% Probability Level 9,044 824 8,220 90% Probability Level 9,838 899 8,939 ' LOSSES DURING 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $1,188 $208 $980 ' 70% Probability Level 1,682 277 1,405 80% Probability Level 1,986 319 1,667 90% Probability Level 2,402 378 2,024 TOTAL LOSSES THROUGH 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR ' Expected Value $8,705 $891 $7,814 70% Probability Level 10,143 1,047 9,096 80% Probability Level 11,030 1,143 9,887 90% Probability Level 12,240 1,277 10,963 NOTES: 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 2.This exhibit summarizes our reserve estimates for the past coverage years through June 30, 1993 and for the 1993/1994 coverage year. It shows full value reserve estimates and reserve estimates discounted for anticipated investment earnings, at several probability levels. ' MH UMAN &ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 1 Page 5 of 7 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION RESERVE ESTIMATE DISCOUNTED FOR ANTICIPATED INVESTMENT EARNINGS ASSUMING 4.00%ANNUAL YIELD County Estimated Estimated Discounted Loss Investment Reserve Reserve Earnings Estimate LOSSES THROUGH 1992/1993 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $24,831 $3,351 $21,480 70% Probability Level 26,604 3,559 23,045 80% Probability Level 27,549 3,669 23,880 90% Probability Level 28,588 3,792 24,796 LOSSES DURING 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $10,466 $1,455 $9,011 70% Probability Level 11,889 1,613 10,276 80% Probability Level 12,643 1,697 10,946 90% Probability Level 13,480 1,790 .11,690 TOTAL LOSSES THROUGH 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $35,297 $4,806 $30,491 70% Probability Level 38,493 5,172 33,321 80% Probability Level 40,192 5,366 34,826 90% Probability Level 42,068 5,582 36,486 NOTES: 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 2.This exhibit summarizes our reserve estimates for the past coverage years through June 30, 1993 and for the 1993/1994 coverage year. It shows full value reserve estimates and reserve estimates discounted for anticipated investment earnings, at several probability levels. MILUMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 1 Page 6 of 7 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION RESERVE ESTIMATE DISCOUNTED FOR ANTICIPATED INVESTMENT EARNINGS ASSUMING 4.00%ANNUAL YIELD Consolidated Fire Estimated Estimated Discounted Loss Investment Reserve Reserve Earnings Estimate LOSSES THROUGH 1992/1993 COVERAGE YEAR 1 Expected Value $3,104 $378 $2,726 70% Probability Level 3,468 420 3,048 80% Probability Level 3,667 437 3,230 90% Probability Level 3,915 46.4 3,451 LOSSES DURING 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $1,429 $179 $1,250 70% Probability Level 1,735 209 1,526 80% Probability Level 1,905 226 1,679 90% Probability Level 2,112 247 1,865 TOTAL LOSSES THROUGH 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $4,533 $557 $3,976 70% Probability Level 5,203 629 4,574 80% Probability Level 5,572 663 4,909 90% Probability Level 6,027 711 5,316 NOTES: 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 2. This exhibit summarizes our reserve estimates for the past coverage years through June 30, 1993 and for the 1993/1994 coverage year. It shows full value reserve estimates and reserve estimates discounted for anticipated investment earnings, at several probability levels. MILUMAN &ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 1 Page 7 of 7 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION RESERVE ESTIMATE DISCOUNTED FOR ANTICIPATED INVESTMENT EARNINGS ASSUMING 4.00%ANNUAL YIELD Riverview Fire Estimated Estimated Discounted Loss Investment Reserve Reserve Earnings Estimate LOSSES THROUGH 1992/1993 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $1,354 $161 $1,193 70% Probability Level 1,524 179 1,345 80% Probability Level 1,617 189 1,428 90% Probability Level 1,732 200 1,532 LOSSES DURING 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $601 $82 $519 70% Probability Level 735 96 639 80% Probability Level 810 105 705 90% Probability Level 902 115 787 TOTAL LOSSES THROUGH 1993/1994 COVERAGE YEAR Expected Value $1,955 $243 $1,712 70% Probability Level 2,259 275 1,984 80% Probability Level 2,427 294 2,133 90% Probability Level 2,634 315 2,319 NOTES: 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 2. This exhibit summarizes our reserve estimates for the past coverage years through June 30, 1993 and for the 1993/1994 coverage year. It shows full value reserve estimates and reserve estimates discounted for anticipated investment earnings, at several probability levels. MILLIMAN&ROBERIPSON,INC. Exhibit 2 1 Contra Costa County ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSSES ' FOR COVERAGE YEAR 1993/1994 ' Undiscounted Expected Probability Level ' Value 70% 80% 90% Workers' Compensation $12,496 $14,359 $15,358 $16,494 iGeneral Liability 7,078 8,239 8,848 9,959 Medical Malpractice 1,188 1,682 1,986 2,402 ' Total $20,762 $24,280 $26,192 $28,855 ' Discounted at 4.00%Annual Yield Expected Probability Level ' Value 70% 80% 90% Workers' Compensation $10,780 $12,441 $13,330 $14,342 General Liability 5,988 7,006 7,540 8,514 Medical Malpractice 980 1,405 1,667 2,024 ' Total $17,748 $20,852 $22,537 $24,880 NOTES: 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 1 2. This exhibit shows our loss estimates for the 1993/1994 coverage year, at several probability levels, and on both an undiscounted and a discounted basis. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 3 ' Contra Costa County FLUCTUATION RESERVE ' (As of June 30, 1993) Undiscounted. Undiscounted Fluctuation Reserve Expected 70% 80% 90% Value . Probability Probability Probability Reserve Level Level Level ' Workers'Compensation $29,289 $2,307 $3,544 $4,946 General Liability 19,554 1,418 2,160 3,521 ' Medical Malpractice 7,517 944 1,527 2,321 ' Total $56,360 $4,669 $7,231 $10,788 ' NOTES: 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 2. This exhibit shows our expected value reserve estimates as of June 30, 1993 and the additional (fluctuation) reserve which would be needed to establish reserves at higher probability levels. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 4 ' Contra Costa County EXPECTED VALUE RESERVES ' (As of June 30, 1993) (1) (2) (3) ' Estimated Payments Estimated Ultimate as of Reserve Losses 6/30/93 ' Workers' Compensation $80,527 $51,238 $29,289 General Liability 48,848 29,294 19,554 ' Medical Malpractice 22,543 15,026 7,517 Total $151,917 $95,558 $56,360 ' NOTES: 1. Dollar amounts are iri thousands. ' 2. This exhibit shows our estimates of ultimate losses as of June 30, 1993 from Exhibits 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9. It also shows the total payments made as of June 30, 1993, and the resulting expected value reserve estimates. 3. Coverage periods are 11/4/75 to 6/30/93 for General Liability and Medical ' Malpractice, 7/1/77 to 6/30/93 for County Workers'Compensation, and 1/1/78 to 6/30/93 for Fire Districts Workers' Compensation. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 5 ' Page 1 of 4 Contra Costa County ' WORKERS' COMPENSATION SELECTED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE County ' (1) (2) (3) (4) Incurred Selected ' Fiscal Paid Loss Loss Bornhuetter- Ultimate Year Development Development Ferguson Loss & Ending Method Method Method ALAE ' 1978 $1,650.0 $1,820.4 == $1,820.4 1979 1,568.1 1,626.8 1,626.8 1980 1,716.4 1,876.6 -- 1,876.6 ' 1981 1,572.4 1,744.2 �= 1,744.2 1982 1,194.1 1,375.0 1,375.0 1983 1,939.8 2,031.4 -- 2,029.3 ' 1984 2,480.8 2,690.3 �= 2,666.3 1985 3,586.3 4,021.3 3,937.2 1986 3,199.4 3,692.6 -- 3,598.2 ' 1987 3,847.4 4,032.3 $4,028.8 3,939.9 1988 3,986.6 4,368.2 4,373.3 4,370.8 1989 4,878.7 5,135.3 5,304.0 5,304.0 1990 6,063.6 6,191.7 6,203.7 6,197.7 ' 1991 7,007.3 7,765.9 7,767.9 7,766.9 1992 10,608.0 10,633.4 10,629.5 10,629.5 1993 9,683.4 10,056.5 10,689.6 9,101.3 Total $64,982.3 $69,061.9 $67,984.1 NOTES: ' 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 2. Column (1) is from page 4, column (4). 3. Column (2) is from page 3, column (4). 4. Column (3) is from page 2, column (11). 5. ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 5 Page 2 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION ' ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE BORNHUETTER- FERGUSON METHOD County (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) ' Incurred Reported Ultimate Fiscal Loss& Ultimate Pure Pure Year ALAE Incurred Percent Premium Premium Ending Payroll6/� 30/93 &ALAE Unreported (2)/(1) (3)/(1) ' 1987 $182.0 $3,899.7 $3,806.2 3.3% $21.427 $20.913 1988 194.1 4,295.1 4,367.6 1.7% 22.128 22.502 ' 1989 210.2 5,208.2 5,092.9 1.7% 24.777 24.229 1990 232.4 6,082.2 6,243.2 1.8% 26.171 26.864 1991 233.6 7,613.6 7,873.8 2.0% 32.592 33.706 1992 285.8 9,746.5 12,758.1 8.3% 34.103 44.640 1993 292.2 6,822.6 10,691.6 32.2% 23.349 36.590 (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) ' Current Selected Bornhuetter- Current Residual Level Bornhuetter- Final Ferguson Level Trend Pure Ferguson Pure Ultimate ' Factors to Factors to Premium Pure Premium Loss &ALA 1993 1993 (6)x(7)x(8) Premium (5)+[(4)x(10)] (1)x(11) ' 1987 1.080 1.771 $40.000 $21.488 $22.136 $4,028.8 1988 1.078 1.610 39.054 23.681 22.531 4,373.3 1989 1.077 1.464 38.203 26.067 25.233 5,304.0 ' 1990 1.062 1.331 37.973 29.076 26.694 6,203.7 1991 1.028 1.210 41.926 33.042 33.253 7,767.9 1992 1.004 1.100 49.300 37.215 37.192 10,629.5 1993 1.000 1.000 36.590 41.100 36.583 10,689.6 ' Selected 1993: $41.100 ' NOTES: 1. The selected Born huetter-Ferguson pure premium [column (9)] is the selected average current level pure premium divided by the current level factor[column (7)]for that year. ' 2. Amounts in column (1) are in millions of dollars. 3. Amounts in columns(2), (3) and (11) are in thousands of dollars. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON, INC. Exhibit 5 Page 3 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERSCOMPENSATION ' ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE . INCURRED LOSS DEVELOPMENT METHOD County ' (1) (2) (3) (4) Incurred Age-to- Estimated ' Fiscal Loss Age-to-Age Ultimate Ultimate Year &ALAE Development Development Loss&ALAE Ending @6/30/93 Factor Factor (1)x(3) 1978 $1,820,389 1.000 1.000 $1,820,389 1979 1,626,818 1.000 1.000 1,626,818 1980 1,876,647 1.000 1.000 1,876,647 ' 1981 1,744,152 1.000 1.000 1,744,152 1982 1,374,967 1.000 1.000 1,374,967 1983 2,029,343 1.001 1.001 2,031,373 1984 2,666,305 1.008 1.009 2,690,302 1985 3,927,086 1.015 1.024 4,021,336 1986 3,578,146 1.008 1.032 3,692,646 1987 3,899,679 1.002 1.034 4,032,268 ' 1988 4,295,136 0.984 1.017 4,368,154 1989 5,208,175 0.970 0.986 5,135,261 1990 6,082,198 1.032 1.018 6,191,677 ' 1991 7,613,614 1.002 1.020 7,765,886 1992 9,746,455 1.070 1.091 10,633,382 1993 6,822,569 1.351 1.474 10,056,467 Total $64,311,680 $69,061,725 ' NOTES: 1. Columns (2) and (3)are the selected development factors in Exhibit 10. ' 2.ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. 1 ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 5 Page 4 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION ' ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE ' PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT METHOD County ' (1) (2) (3) (4) Paid Age-to- Estimated Fiscal Loss Age-to-Age Ultimate Ultimate ' Year &ALAE Development Development Loss&ALAE Ending @6/30/93 Factor Factor (1)x(3) ' 1978 $1,650,007 1.000 1.000 $1,650,007 1979 1,568,103 1.000 1.000 1,568,103 1980 1,713,020 1.002 1.002 1,716,446 ' 1981 1,566,146 1.002 1.004 1,572,410 1982 1,187,005 1.002 1.006 1,194,127 1983 1,918,732 1.005 1.011 1,939,838 ' 1984 2,389,960 1.027 1.038 2,480,778 1985 3,380,094 1.022 1.061 3,586,279 1986 2,935,237 1.027 1.090 3,199,408 1987 3,368,990 1.048 1.142 3,847,387 1988 3,378,446 1.033 1.180 3,986,566 1989 3,878,157 1.066 1.258 4,878,721 1990 4,276,154 1.127 1.418 6,063,586 ' 1991 4,043,426 1.222 1.733 7,007,258 1992 4,248,305 1.441 2.497 10,608,019 1993 1,651,618 2.348 5.863 9,683,439 ' Total $43,153,399 $64,982,372 NOTES: 1. Columns (2) and (3)are the selected development factors in Exhibit 11. ' 2.ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. MILLIMAN &ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 6 Page 1 of 4 Contra Costa County ' WORKERS'COMPENSATION SELECTED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE Consolidated Fire ' (1) (2) (3) (4) Incurred Selected ' Fiscal Paid Loss Loss Bornhuetter- Ultimate Year Development Development Ferguson Loss& Ending Method Method Method ALAE ' 1978 $303.3 $308.3 $308.3 1979 167.4 173.5 173.5 1980 199.6 211.3 -- 211.3 ' 1981 259.5 287.8 �= 287.8 1982 401.7 429.8 429.8 1983 265.2 265.2 -- 265.2 1984 371.8 418.8 -- 418.8 ' 1985 776.2 866.5 -- 866.5 1986 394.3 473.8 -- 474.7 1987 373.0 438.9 $449.7 449.7 1988 489.2 576.1 576.1 576.1 1989 881.2 922.5 919.4 921.0 1990 831.8 774.1 775.9 775.0 ' 1991 848.0 711.4 719.6 742.0 1992 1,778.3 1,440.1 1,434.1 1,434.1 1993 1,847.4 1,147.7 1,242.4 1,242.4 Total $10,187.9 $9,445.8 $9,576.2 NOTES: 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. ' 2. Column (1) is from page 4, column (4). 3. Column (2) is from page 3, column (4). 4. Column (3) is from page 2, column (11). 5.ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 6 Page 2 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE BORNHUETTER- FERGUSON METHOD Consolidated Fire (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Incurred Reported Ultimate Fiscal Loss& Ultimate Pure Pure Year ALAE Incurred Percent Premium Premium Ending Payroll 6/30/93 &ALAE Unreported (2)/(1) (3)/(1) 1987 $12.9 $449.7 $387.4 0.0% $34.860 $30.031 1988 12.4 576.1 576.9 0.0% 46.460 46.524 1989 11.6 913.3 905.0 1.0% 78.733 78.017 1990 14.2 743.6 804.1 3.9% 52.366 56.627 1991 16.0 694.1 812.4 2.4% 43.381 50.775 1992 17.8 1,367.6 1,708.2 5.0% 76.831 95.966 1993 18.1 834.7 1,210.3 27.3% 46.116. 66.867 (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) ' Current Selected Bornhuetter- Current Residual Level Bornhuetter- Final Ferguson Level Trend Pure Ferguson Pure Ultimate ' Factors to Factors to Premium Pure Premium Loss&ALA 1993 1993 (6)x x(8 Premium (5)+[(4)x(10)] (1)x(11) 1987 1.080 1.771 $57.440 $43.133 $34.860 $449.7 1988 1.078 1.610 80.746 47.535 46.460 576.1 1989 1.077 1.464 123.012 52.324 79.256 919.4 1990 1.062 1.331 80.044 58.365 54.642 775.9 1991 1.028 1.210 63.158 66.325 44.973 719.6 1992 1.004 1.100 105.985 74.701 80.566 1,434.1 1993 1.000 1.000 66.867 82.500 68.639 1,242.4 Selected 1993: $82.500 NOTES: 1. The selected Bomhuetter-Ferguson pure premium [column (9)] is the selected average current level pure premium divided by the current level factor[column (7)]for that year. ' 2. Amounts in column (1) are in millions of dollars. 3. Amounts in columns (2), (3) and (11) are in thousands of dollars. 4. Columns (2), (3) and (4) are from page 3. 5. ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 6 Page 3 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION ' ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE ' INCURRED LOSS DEVELOPMENT METHOD Consolidated Fire ' (1) (2) (3) (4) Incurred Age-to- Estimated Fiscal Loss Age-to-Age Ultimate Ultimate Year &ALAE Development Development Loss &ALAE Ending @6/30/93 Factor Factor (1)x(3) ' 1978 $308,298 1.000 1.000 $308,298 1979 173,523 1.000 1.000 173,523 1980 211,254 1.000 1.000 211,254 1981 287,838 1.000 1.000 287,838 1982 429,785 1.000 1.000 429,785 1983 265,179 1.000 1.000 265,179 1 1984 418,840 1.000 1.000 418,840 1985 866,488 1.000 1.000 866,488 1986 474,720 0.998 0.998 473,771 1987 449,697 0.978 0.976 438,904 ' 1988 576,088 1.025 1.000 576,088 1989 913,340 1.010 1.010 922,473 1990 743,648 1.031 1.041 774,137 ' 1991 694,093 0.985 1.025 711,445 1992 1,367,642 1.027 1.053 1,440,127 1993 834,703 1.306 1.375 1,147,716 Total $9,015,136 $9,445,866 NOTES: 1. Columns (2) and (3) are the selected development factors in Exhibit 12. ' 2.ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 6 Page 4 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION 1 ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT METHOD Consolidated Fire (1) (2) (3) (4) Paid Age-to- Estimated ' Fiscal Loss Age-to-Age Ultimate Ultimate Year &ALAE Development Development Loss&ALAE Ending @6/30/93 Factor Factor (1)x(3) ' 1978 $303,279 1.000 1.000 $303,279 1979 167,438 1.000 1.000 167,438 1980 199,616 1.000 1.000 199,616 1981 259,515 1.000 1.000 259,515 1982 401,728 1.000 1.000 401,728 1983 265,179 1.000 1.000 265,179 1984 371,410 1.001 1.001 371,782 1985 769,267 1.008 1.009 776,191 1986 386,608 1.011 - 1.020 394,340 1987 346,034 1.057 1.078 373,025 1988 390,422 1.162 1.253 489,199 1989 634,869 1.108 1.388 8811,198 1990 538,359 1.113 1.545 831,764 ' 1991 437,806 1.254 1.937 848,030 1992 703,443 1.305 2.528 1,778,303 1993 296,969 2.461 6.221 1,847,441 Total $6,471,941 $10,188,028 NOTES: 1. Columns (2) and (3) are the selected development factors in Exhibit 13. ' 2.ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. 1 MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. I Exhibit 7 Page 1 of 4 - Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION SELECTED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE Riverview Fire (1) (2) (3) (4) Incurred Selected Fiscal Paid Loss Loss Bornhuetter- Ultimate Year Development Development Ferguson Loss & Ending Method Method Method ALAE 1978 $44.9 $44.9 $44.9 1979 41.7 41.7 41.7 1980 13.8 13.8 -- 13.8 1 1981 26.9 26.9 �= 26.9 1982 22.5 28.8 28.8 1983 187.1 191.7 -- 191.7 1984 50.7 50.7 =_ 50.7 1985 82.7 86.8 86.8 1986 69.0 99.6 -- 99.6 1987 89.8 129.1 $129.2 129.2 ' 1988 130.5 192.4 192.6 192.5 1989 212.0 295.2 293.3 294.3 1990 112.1 186.5 187.1 205.7 1991 373.0 552.0 539.8 545.9 1992 275.4 313.6 335.2 335.2 1993 561.5 740.4 679.3 679.3 ' Total $2,293.6 $2,994.1 $2,967.0 NOTES: 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 2. Column (1) is from page 4, column (4). i 3. Column (2) is from page 3, column (4). 4. Column (3) is from page 2, column (11). 5. ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 7 Page 2 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE BORNHUETTER- FERGUSON METHOD Riverview Fire (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Incurred Reported' Ultimate Fiscal Loss& Ultimate Pure Pure Year ALAE Incurred Percent Premium Premium Ending Payroll - @6/30/93 ALAE Unreported _(?)/(l) - . py(i) 1987 $3.8 $129.0 $181.5 0.1% $33.947 $47.763 1988 4.4 190.7 198.5 0.9% 43.341 45.114 1 1989 4.4 286.6 251.5 2.9% 65.136 57.159 1990 4.9 185.4 153.6 0.6% 37.837 31,347 1991 5.7 513.0 479.9 7.1% 90.000 84.193 1992 6.9 280.0 320.3 10.7% 40.580 46.420 1993 7.0 463.9 642.6 37.3% 66,271 91.800 (7) (8) (9) (10) (12) Current Selected Bomhuetter- Current Residual Level Bomhuetter- Final Ferguson Level Trend Pure Ferguson Pure Ultimate Factors to Factors to Premium Pure Premium Loss&ALA 1993 1993 (6)x(7)x(8) Premium- (5)+[(4)x(1 0) (1)x(11) 1987 1.080 1.771 $91.355 $43.133 $33.990 $129.2 1988 1.078 1.610 78.299 47.535 43.769 192.6 1989 1.077 1.464 90.124 52.324 66.653 293.3 1990 1.062 1.331 44.310 58.365 38.187 187.1 1991 1,028 1.210 104-726 66.325 94.709 539.8 1992 1.004 1.100 51-266 74.701 48.573 335.2 1993 1.000 1.000 91.800 82.500 97.044 679.3 Selected 1993: $77.800 NOTES: 1. The selected Bornhuefter-Ferguson pure premium [column (9)] is the selected average current level pure premium divided by the current level factor[column (7)]for that year. 2. Amounts in column (1)are in millions of dollars. 3.Amounts in columns(2), (3)and (111) are in thousands of dollars. 4. Columns(2), (3) and(4) are from page 3. 5.ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. MIULIMAN &ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 7 Page 3 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE ' INCURRED LOSS DEVELOPMENT METHOD Riverview Fire ' (1) (2) (3) (4) Incurred Age-to- Estimated Fiscal Loss Age-to-Age Ultimate Ultimate Year &ALAE Development Development Loss &ALAE Ending c@6/30/93 Factor Factor (1)x(3) ' 1978 $44,859 1.000 1.000 $44,859 1979 41,691 1.000 1.000 41,691 1980 13,811 1.000 1.000 13,811 ' 1981 26,890 1.000 1.000 26,890 1982 28,770 1.000 1.000 28,770 1983 191,728 1.000 1.000 191,728 ' 1984 50,675 1.000 1.000 50,675 1985 86,779 1.000 1.000 86,779 1986 99,587 1.000 1.000 99,587 1987 129,003 1.001 1.001 129,132 1988 190,685 1.008 1.009 192,401 1989 286,647 1.021 1.030 295,246 1990 185,410 0.977 1.006 186,522 1991 513,005 1.070 1.076 551,993 1992 279,978 1.041 1.120 313,575 1993 463,889 1.425 1.596 740,367 ' Total $2,633,407 $2,994,026 NOTES: 1. Columns (2) and (3) are the selected development factors in Exhibit 14. ' 2.ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 7 Page 4 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT METHOD Riverview Fire (1) (2) (3) (4) Paid Age-to- Estimated Fiscal Loss Age-to-Age Ultimate Ultimate, Year &ALAE Development Development Loss&ALAE Ending @6/30/93 Factor Factor (1)x(3) ' 1978 $44,859 1.000 1.000 $44,859 1979 41,691 1.000 1.000 41,691 1980 13,811 1.000 1.000 13,811 1981 26,890 1.000 1.000 26,890 1982 22,490 1.000 1.000 22,490 ' 1983 187,068 1.000 1.000 187,068 1984 50,675 1.000 1.000 50,675 1985 82,703 1.000 1.000 82,703 ' 1986 69,012 1.000 1.000 69,012 1987 89,681 1.001 1.001 89,770 1988 129,310 1.008 1.009 130,474 1989 207,479 1.013 1.022 212,044 ' 1990 98,981 1.109 1.133 112,146 1991 277,708 1.185 1.343 372,961 1992 150,586 1.362 1.829 275,422 ' 1993 119,999 2.558 4.679 561,473 Total $1,612,942 $2,293,489 i NOTES: ' 1. Columns (2)and (3) are the selected development factors in Exhibit 15. 2.ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. i MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON, INC. Exhibit 8 Page 1 of 4 Contra Costa County GENERAL LIABILITY SELECTED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE i (1) (2) (3) (4) Incurred Selected Fiscal Paid Loss Loss Bornhuetter- Ultimate 1 Year Development Development Ferguson Loss& Ending Method Method Method ALAE ' 1976 $119.9 $119.9 =_ $119.9 1977 2,231.9 2,247.9 2,247.9 1978 741.2 829.7 -- 829.7 1979 502.6 502.6 == 502.6 1980 769.3 769.3 769.3 1981 780.7 838.4 -- 838.4 1982 1,709.7 1,709.7 =_ 1,709.7 1983 2,231.2 2,546.9 2,546.9 1984 3,166.1 3,166.1 -- 3,166.1 1985 3,521.0 3,599.8 -- 3,599.8 1986 3,089.5 3,200.0 -- 3,200.0 1987 1,562.5 2,039.2 2,028.4 2,033.8 1988 2,080.5 1,789.6 1,937.5 1,937.5 1989 1,529.2 2,687.8 2,660.1 3,160.0 1990 2,045.3 2,717.2 2,778.3 3,724.0 1991 4,753.2 4,640.7 4,414.8 5,550.0 1992 7,311.8 5,972.6 5,701.7 6,757.0 1993 3,096.6 6,308.3 6,131.5 6,155.0 Total $41,242.2 $45,685.7 $48,847.6 NOTES: 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 2. Column (1) is from page 4, column (4). 3. Column (2) is from page 3, column (4). 4. Column (3) is from page 2, column (11). 5. ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. i ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 8 Page 2 of 4 ' Contra Costa County GENERAL LIABILITY 1 ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE ' BORNHUETTER-FERGUSON METHOD (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Incurred Reported Ultimate Fiscal Loss& Ultimate Pure Pure Year ALAE Incurred Percent Premium Premium Ending Payroll6� /30/93 &ALAE Unreported (2)/(1) (3)/(1) 1987 $182.0 $1,989.5 $1,044.1 2.4% $10.931 $5.737 1988 194.1 1,826.2 2,099.7 5.6% 9.408 10.818 1989 210.2 2,333.2 1,889.4 13.2% 11.100 8.989 1990 232.4 2,334.3 2,774.9 14.1% 10.045 11.940 1991 233.6 3,589.1 4,835.1 22.7% 15.364 20.698 1992 285.8 4,068.6 6,827.0 31.9% 14.236 23.887 1993 292.2 2,435.6 4,274.5 61.4% 8.336 14.629 (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) ' Current Selected Bornhuetter- Current Level Bomhuetter- Final Ferguson Level Pure Ferguson Pure Ultimate ' Factors to Premium Pure Premium Loss&ALAE 1993 (6)x(7) Premium (5)+[(4)x(9)] (1)x(10) 1987 2.313 13.270 8.906 11.145 $2,028.4 1988 2.011 21.755 10.244 9.982 1,937.5 1989 1.749 15.722 11.778 12.655 2,660.1 1990 1.521 18.161 13.544 11.955 2,778.3 1991 1.323 27.383 15.571 18.899 4,414.8 1992 1.150 27.470 17.913 19.950 5,701.7 1993 1.000 14.629 20.600 20.984 6,131.5 ' Selected 1993: $20.600 NOTES: 1. The selected Bornhuetter-Ferguson pure premium [column (9)] is the selected average current level pure premium divided by the current level factor[column (7)] for that year. ' 2.Amounts in column (1)are in millions of dollars. 3.Amounts in columns(2), (3) and (11) are in thousands of dollars. 4. Columns (2), (3) and (4) are from page 3. 5.ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 8 Page 3 of 4 Contra Costa County GENERAL LIABILITY ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE INCURRED LOSS DEVELOPMENT METHOD (1) (2) (3) .(4) Incurred Age-to- Estimated Fiscal Loss Age-to-Age Ultimate Ultimate Year &ALAE Development Development Loss&ALAE Ending @6/30/93 Factor Factor (1)x(3) 1976 $119,858 1.000 1.000 $119,858 1977 2,247,878 1.000 1.000 2,247,878 1978 829,658 1.000 1.000 829,658 1979 502,622 1.000 1.000 502,622 1980 769,256 1.000 1.000 769,256 1981 838,375 1.000 1.000 838,375 1982 1,709,689 1.000 1.000 1,709,689 1983 2,546,899 1.000 1.000 2,546,899 1984 3,166,057 1.000 1.000 3,166,057 1985 3,599,827 1.000 1.000 3,599,827 1986 3,196,846 1.001 1.001 3,200,043 1987 1,989,471 1.024 1.025 2,039,208 1988 1,826,150 0.956 0.980 1,789,627 1989 2,333,190 1.175 1.152 2,687,835 1990 2,334,345 1.010 1.164 2,717,178 1991 3,589,119 1.111 1.293 4,640,730 1992 4,068,553 1.135 1.468 5,972,635 1993 2,435,634 1.764 2.590. 6,308,291 Total $38,103,426 $45,685,666 NOTES: 1. Columns(2) and (3) are the selected development factors in Exhibit 16. 2.ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. MIULIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 8 Page 4 of 4 Contra Costa County GENERAL LIABILITY ' ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE ' PAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT METHOD ' (1) (2) (3) (4) Paid Age-to- Estimated ' Fiscal Loss Age-to-Age Ultimate Ultimate Year &ALAE Development Development Loss&ALAE Ending @6/30/93 Factor Factor (1)x(3) ' 1976 $119,858 1.000 1.000 $119,858 1977 2,231,881 1.000 1.000 2,231,881 1978 741,191 1.000 1.000 741,191 1979 502,622 1.000 1.000 502,622 1980 769,256 1.000 1.000 769,256 1981 780,745 1.000 1.000 780,745 1982 1,709,689 1.000 1.000 1,709,689 1983 2,231,238 1.000 1.000 2,231,238 1984 3,166,057 1.000 1.000 3,166,057 ' 1985 3,520,988 1.000 1.000 3,520,988 1986 3,034,833 1.018 1.018 3,089,460 1987 1,514,095 1.014 1.032 1,562,546 1988 1,772,164 1.138 1.174 2,080,521 ' 1989 1,205,990 1.080 1.268 1,529,196 1990 1,404,756 1.148 1.456 2,045,325 1991 2,464,069 1.325 1.929 4,753,189 ' 1992 1,960,792 1.933 3.729 7,311,794 1993 163,528 5.078 18.936 3,096,575 Total $29,293,755 $41,242,131 ' NOTES: 1. Columns (2) and (3) are the selected development factors in Exhibit 17. 2.ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 9 ' Page 1 of 4 Contra Costa County ' MEDICAL MALPRACTICE SELECTED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE ' (1) (2) (3) (4) Incurred Selected ' Fiscal Paid Loss Loss Bornhuetter- Ultimate Year Development Development Ferguson Loss& Ending Method Method Method ALAE ' 1976 $427.1 $427.1 $427.1 1977 142.1 156.8 156.8 1978 2,803.2 2,849.8 -- 2,849.8 ' 1979 890.4 890.4 -- 890.4 1980 1,387.7 1,608.5 1,608.5 1981 1,287.8 1,300.1 -- 1,300.1 ' 1982 2,735.2 2,734.8 -- 2,734.8 1983 146.7 146.7 146.7 1984 1,457.8 1,533.3 -- 1,533.3 1985 692.9 739.9 -- 739.9 ' 1986 192.2 193.0 -- 193.0 1987 458.9 678.1 $674.4 676.3 1988 795.6 798.3 798.1 798.2 ' 1989 683.4 819.1 825.4 822.3 1990 1,293.4 3,355.1 3,297.0 3,326.1 1991 972.6 803.7 849.1 849.1 ' 1992 862.7 3,487.6 2,346.7 2,346.7 1993 728.6 1,875.7 1,143.4 1,143.4 Total, $17,958.3 $24,398.0 $22,542.5 ' NOTES: 1. Dollar amounts are in thousands. 2. Column (1) is from page 4, column (4). 3. Column (2) is from page 3, column (4). ' 4. Column (3) is from page 2, column (11). 5. ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. ' MIUMMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 9 Page 2 of 4 ' Contra Costa County MEDICAL MALPRACTICE ' ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE ' BORNHUETTER- FERGUSON METHOD 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) ' Incurred Reported Ultimate Fiscal Loss& Ultimate Pure Pure Year Inpatient ALAE Incurred Percent Premium Premium Ending Admissions6cr�D /30/93 &ALAE Unreported (2)/(1) (3)/(1) ' 1987 7,842 $675.4 $566.9 0.4% $0.086 $0.072 1988 8,401 791.1 1,083.1 0.9% 0.094 0.129 ' 1989 8,875 803.8 1,073.8 1.9% 0.091 0.121 1990 9,133 3,265.0 1,459.3 3.1% 0.357 0.160 1991 8,845 653.4 1,003.8 18.7% 0.074 0.113 ' 1992 8,822 1,869.0 862.7 46.4% 0.212 0.098 1993 8,346 364.5 963.5 80.6% 0.044 0.115 ' (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) Current Selected Bornhuetter- Current Level Bornhuetter- Final Ferguson Level Pure Ferguson Pure Ultimate ' Factors to Premium Pure Premium Loss&ALAE 19936( )x(7) Premium (5)+[(4)x(9)) (1)x(10 ' 1987 1.000 $0.072 $0.116 $0.086 $674.4 1988 1.000 0.129 0.116 0.095 798.1 1989 1.000 0.121 0.116 0.093 825.4 1990 1.000 0.160 0.116 0.361 3,297.0 1991 1.000 0.113 0.116 0.096 849.1 1992 1.000 0.098 0.116 0.266 2,346.7 1993 1.000 0.115 0.116 0.137 1,143.4 Selected 1993: $0.116 ' NOTES: 1. The selected Bomhuetter-Ferguson pure premium [column (9)] is the selected average current level pure premium divided by the current level factor[column (7)] for that year. 2.Amounts in columns (2), (3) and (11) are in thousands of dollars. 3. Columns(2), (3) and (4) are from page 3. 4. ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 9 ' Page 3 of 4 Contra Costa County MEDICAL MALPRACTICE ' ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE ' INCURRED LOSS DEVELOPMENT METHOD (1) (2) (3) (4) Incurred Age-to- Estimated Fiscal Loss Age-to-Age Ultimate Ultimate ' Year &ALAE Development Development Loss&ALAE Ending @6/30/93 Factor Factor (1)x(3) ' 1976 $427,082 1.000 1.000 $427,082 1977 156,846 1.000 1.000 156,846 1978 2,849,809 1.000 1.000 2,849,809 ' 1979 890,410 1.000 1.000 890,410 1980 1,608,485 1.000 1.000 1,608,485 1981 1,300,112 1.000 1.000 1,300,112 1982 2,734,834 1.000 1.000 2,734,834 1983 146,681 1.000 1.000 146,681 1984 1,533,259 1.000 1.000 1,533,259 1985 739,854 1.000 1.000 739,854 r1986 192,823 1.001 1.001 193,016 1987 675,350 1.003 1.004 678,052 1988 791,144 1.005 1.009 798,264 ' 1989 803,780 1.010 1.019 819,052 1990 3,264,979 1.013 1.032 3,369,459 1991 653,379 1.192 1.230 803,656 1992 1,869,029 1.517 1.866 3,487,608 1993 364,500 2.758 5.146 1,875,717 Total $21,002,357 $24,412,196 ' NOTES: 1. Columns(2) and(3) are the selected development factors in Exhibit 18. 2. ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 9 Page 4 of 4 ' Contra Costa County MEDICAL MALPRACTICE ' ESTIMATED ULTIMATE LOSS AND ALAE ePAID LOSS DEVELOPMENT METHOD (1) (2) (3) (4) Paid Age-to- Estimated Fiscal Loss Age-to-Age Ultimate Ultimate ' Year &ALAE Development Development Loss&ALAE Ending @6/30/93 Factor Factor (1)x(3) ' 1976 $427,082 1.000 1.000 $427,082 1977 142,072 1.000 1.000 142,072 1978 2,803,183 1.000 1.000 2,803,183 ' 1979 890,411 1.000 1.000 890,411 1980 1,387,724 1.000 1.000 1,387,724 1981 1,287,808 1.000 1.000 1,287,808 1982 2,735,193 1.000 1.000 2,735,193 1983 146,681 1.000 1.000 146,681 1984 1,457,822 1.000 1.000 1,457,822 1985 692,944 1.000 1.000 692,944 1986 189,771 1.013 1.013 192,238 1987 438,718 1.033 1.046 458,899 1988 716,144 1.062 1.111 795,636 ' 1989 504,730 1.219 1.354 683,404 1990 713,387 1.339 1.813 1,293,371 1991 333,422 1.609 2.917 972,592 1992 155,420 1.903 5.551 862,734 1993 3,330 39.416 218.798 728,597 ' Total $15,025,842 $17,958,391 NOTES: 1. Columns (2) and (3) are the selected development factors in Exhibit 19. 2.ALAE is allocated loss adjustment expense. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 10 Page 1 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION ' INCURRED LOSSES County (As of June 30, 1993) ' Coverage Months of Development Year 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 1978 $420,149 $1,088,946 $1,287,080 $1,434,232 $1,717,184 $1,820,822 $1,822,072 $1,792,394 ' 1979 584,740 1,289,138 1,594,063 1,624,963 1,476,300 1,800,533 1,711,316 1,642,368 1980 721,873 1,166,915 1,075,147 1,560,217 1,412,993 1,600,764 1,605,985 1,559,037 1981 418,648 977,547 773,191 1,000,695 1,411,849 1,503,916 1,548,360 1,595,921 ' 1982 322,710 740,216 865,226 1,075,908 1,182,781 1,204,335 1,220,625 1,183,178 1983 390,520 967,530 1,660,907 1,523,897 1,641,772 1,781,521 1,824,311 1,732,103 1984 495,976 1,344,378 1,652,095 2,036,406 2,220,250 2,437,904 2,789,644 2,823,717 1985 572,302 1,742,372 2,253,429 3,068,070 4,035,423 4,184,425 4,400,411 4,151,341 1986 329,421 2,024,649 2,868,532 3,244,813 3,560,535 3,605,612 3,295,918 3,365,660 1987 875,346 2,828,318 3,524,721 3,904,556 4,916,217 3,786,151 3,744,486 3,741,430 ' 1988 1,361,118 3,507,215 4,005,588 4,235,832 4,359,841 4,293,023 4,332,664 4,322,236 1989 1,750,377 4,351,401 4,953,242 5,225,443 5,538,867 5,272,552 5,170,042 5,098,245 1990 1,921,309 3,384,632 4,718,854 4,964,772 5,357,134 5,739,556 6,122,568 6,082,198 1991 2,415,157 5,621,271 7,104,344 7,199,195 7,749,528 7,613,614 1992 3,278,963 7,724,670 10,659,202 9,746,455 .1993 2,863,938 6,822,569 Development Factors ' 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24 24 to 30 30 to 36 36 to 42 42 to 48 48 to 54 1978 2.592 1.182 1.114 1.197 1.060 1.001 0.984 0.894 1979 2.205 1.237 1.019 0.909 1.220 0.950 0.960 0.928 ' 1980 1.617 0.921 1.451 0.906 1.133 1.003 0.971 1.124 1981 2.335 0.791 1.294 1.411 1.065 1.030 1.031 1.003 1982 2.294 1.169 1.243 1.099 1.018 1.014 0.969 0.976 ' 1983 2.478 1.717 0.918 1.077 1.085 1.024 0.949 1.090 1984 2.711 1.229 1.233 1.090 1.098 1.144 1.012 1.022 1985 3.044 1.293 1.362 1.315 1.037 1.052 0.943 1.022 1986 6.146 1.417 1.131 1.097 1.013 0.914 1.021 1.045 1987 3.231 1.246 1.108 1.259 0.770 0.989 0.999 1.001 1988 2.577 1.142 1.057 1.029 0.985 1.009 0.998 0.993 1989 2.486 1.138 1.055 1.060 0.952 0.981 0.986 1.028 ' 1990 1.762 1.394 1.052 1.079 1.071 1.067 0.993 1991 2.327 1.264 1.013 1.076 0.982 1992 2.356 1.380 0.914 1993 2.382 Selected: 2.389 1.294 1.044 1.072 0.998 1.010 0.992 1.014 ' Cumulative: 3.526 1.476 1.141 1.093 1.020 1.022 1.012 1.020 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 5, page 3. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 10 Page 2 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION ' INCURRED LOSSES County (As of June 30, 1993) ' Coverage Months of Development Year 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 1978' $1,602,771 $1,589,232 $1,668,936 $1,867,947 $1,864,324 $1,857,087 $1,850,927 $1,838,650 1979 1,524,005 1,608,259 1,711,387 1,710,834 1,701,152 1,681,922 1,685,488 1,692,654 1980 1,752,324 1,819,183 1,831,703 1,830,734 1,796,998 1,731,283 1,723,964 1,709,396 1981 1,600,230 1,630,463 1,636,980 1,591,589 1,619,331 1,676,362 1,686,537 1,707,105 ' 1982 1,154,506 1,173,211 1,239,978 1,226,171 1,222,096 1,213,975 1,205,910 1,189,916 1983 1,888,330 1,974,124 1,943,262 2,142,142 2,096,028 2,006,627 2,007,961 2,010,636 1984 2,886,382 2,931,615 2,911,885 2,849,023 2,796,872 2,695,266 2,703,216 2,719,210 1985 4,243,020 4,184,242 4,174,270 4,154,366 4,100,866 3,995,768 3,978,227 3,943,323 1986 3,516,717 3,555,963 3,553,043 3,548,201 3,534,269 3,506,528 3,530,216 3,578,146 1987 3,744,374 3,879,255 3,862,562 3,829,341 3,852,621 3,899,679 ' 1988 4,292,585 4,380,413 4,351,829 4,295,136 1989 5,238,500 5,208,175 Development Factors 54 to 60 60 to 66 66 to 72 72 to 78 78 to 84 84 to 90 90 to 96 96 to 102 1978 0.992 1.050 1.119 0.998 0.996 0.997 0.993 0.987 1979 1.055 1.064 1.000 0.994 0.989 1.002 1.004 0.992 ' 1980 1.038 1.007 0.999 0.982 0.963 0.996 0.992 1.020 1981 1.019 1.004 0.972 1.017 1.035 1.006 1.012 0.982 1982 1.016 1.057 0.989 0.997 0.993 0.993 0.987 1.024 ' 1983 1.045 0.984 1.102 0.978 0.957 1.001 1.001 1.005 1984 1.016 0.993 0.978 0.982 0.964 1.003 1.006 0.996 1985 0.986 0.998 0.995 0.987 0.974 0.996 0.991 0.999 1986 1.011 0.999 0.999 0.996 0.992 1.007 1.014 1987 1.036 0.996 0.991 1.006 1.012 1988 1.020 0.993 0.987 ' 1989 0.994 Selected: 1.018 0.977 0.993 0.995 0.989 1.001 1.001 1.003 ' Cumulative: 1.006 0.988 1.011 1.018 1.023 1.034 1.033 1.032 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 5, page 3. ' MIUUMAN &ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 10 Page 3 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION 1 INCURRED LOSSES County (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 1978 $1,814,081 $1,765,851 $1,766,967 $1,769,204 $1,772,972 $1,772,972 $1,776,523 $1,783,657 1979 1,678,361 1,650,095 1,653,667 1,660,846 1,659,046 1,655,445 1,650,485 1,640,595 1980 1,743,411 1,813,591 1,800,066 1,773,278 1,820,252 1,918,118 1,918,118 1,918,118 1981 1,677,215 1,618,910 1,642,477 1,690,718 1,709,120 1,746,585 1,744,596 1,740,619 1982 1,218,864 1,278,983 1,310,407 1,375,690 1,385,165 1,404,340 1,394,490 1,374,967 1983 2,019,989 2,038,856 2,037,489 2,034,753 2,032,950 2,029,343 1984 2,707,637 2,684,603 2,678,496 2,666,305 1985 3,937,909 3,927,086 1986 Development Factors 102 to 108 108 to 114 114 to 120 120 to 126 126 to 132 132 to 138 138 to 144 144 to 150 1978 0.973 1.001 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.002 1.004 1.009 1979 0.983 1.002 1.004 0.999 0.998 0.997 0.994 0.999 1980 1.040 0.993 0.985 1.026 1.054 1.000 1.000 . 0.999 1981 0.965 1.015 1.029 1.011 1.022 0.999 0.998 1.001 1982 1.049 1.025 1.050 1.007 1.014 0.993 0.986 1983 1.009 0.999 0.999 0.999 0.998 1984 0.991 0.998 0.995 1985 0.997 Selected: 1.005 1.005 1.010 1.005 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.029 1.024 1.019 1.009 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 NOTE: ' 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 5, page 3. 1 ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 10 Page 4 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION ' INCURRED LOSSES County (As of June 30, 1993) ' Coverage Months of Development Year 150 156 162 168 174 180 186 192 1978 $1,798,829 $1,829,608 $1,829,792 $1,830,162 $1,830,561 $1,831,362 $1,827,701 $1,820,389 t 1979 1,638,223 1,633,483 1,630,160 1,623,524 1,624,621 1,626,818 1980 1,915,981 1,911,708 1,899,961 1,876,647 1981 1,741,795 1,744,152 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Development Factors 150 to 156 156 to 162 162 to 168 168 to 174 174 to 180 180 to 186 186 to 192 192 to Utt. ' 1978 1.017 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 0.996 1979 0.997 0.998 0.996 1.001 1.001 1980 0.998 0.994 0.988 1981 1.001 Selected: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 5, page 3. MMUMAN&e ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 11 Page 1 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES County (As of June 30, 1993 ' Coverage Months of Development Year 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 1978 $72,320 $326,222 $537,627 $631,757 $719,476 $825,563 $941,936 $1,050,131 1979 121,635 335,397 575,019 696,164 785,940 908,378 1,045,891 1,125,630 ' 1980 111,658 334,924 476,153 576,716 709,005 892,514 991,608 1,108,552 1981 65,811 271,279 449,223 586,069 729,507 917,967 1,051,809 1,167,256 ' 1982 69,987 241,722 365,014 498,952 650,473 759,915 847,898 912,818 1983 77,525 318,155 571,207 758,345 933,654 1,048,729 1,242,476 1,300,852 1984 136,363 451,460 818,688 1,103,728 1,423,175 1,620,863 1,823,993 1,975,369 1985 130,720 484,915 961,360 1,375,202 1,713,042 2,040,229 2,251,440 2,289,256 1986 55,605 417,200 832,087 1,199,821 1,537,554 1,769,690 2,147,896 2,340,433 1987 141,162 580,950 1,046,837 1,363,845 1,758,307 2,100,199 2,310,470 2,592,455 1988 152,319 707,946 1,138,887 1,680,329 1,990,436 2,397,415 2,631,759 2,881,706 1989 207,662 819,960 1,309,299 1,827,290 2,327,842 2,684,297 3,074,290 3,442,968 1990 223,823 985,858 1,720,811 2,409,236 2,950,580 3,556,584 3,962,987 4,276,154 1991 265,239 1,311,215 2,303,588 2,944,602 3,579,467 4,043,426 1992 386,659 1,734,412 3,361,134 4,248,305 1993 370,520 1,651,618 Development Factors 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24 24 to 30 30 to 36 36 to 42 42 to 48 48 to 54 1978 4.511 1.648 1.175 1.139 1.147 1.141 1.115 1.077 1979 2.757 1.714 1.211 1.129 1.156 1.151 1.076 1.063 1980 3.000 1.422 1.211 1.229 1.259 1.111 1.118 1.101 1981 4.122 1.656 1.305 1.245 1.258 1.146 1.110 1.059 1982 3.454 1.510 1.367 1.304 1.168 1.116 1.077 1.053 1983 4.104 1.795 1.328 1.231 1.123 1.185 1.047 1.064 1984 3.311 1.813 1.348 1.289 1.139 1.125 1.083 1.074 1985 3.710 1.983 1.430 1.246 1.191 1.104 1.017 1.132 1986 7.503 1.994 1.442 1.281 1.151 1.214 1.090 1.059 1987 4.115 1.802 1.303 1.289 1.194 1.100 1.122 1.052 1988 4.648 1.609 1.475 1.185 1.204 1.098 1.095 1.081 1989 3.949 1.597 1.396 1.274 1.153 1.145 1.120 1.083 1990 4.405 1.745 1.400 1.225 1.205 1.114 1.079 1991 4.944 1.757 1.278 1.216 1.130 1992 4.486 1.938 1.264 1993 4.458 Selected: 4.573 1.747 1.344 1.225 1.176 1.114 1.097 1.070 Cumulative: 26.811 5.863 3.356 2.497 2.038 1.733 1.556 1.418 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 5, page 4. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 11 Page 2 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES County (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 1978 $1,131,479 $1,175,652 $1,241,778 $1,385,625 $1,413,337 $1,470,522 $1,504,464 $1,574,823 1979 1,196,028 1,303,109 1,342,892 1,426,268 1,448,649 1,494,539 1,496,200 1,499,532 1980 1,220,279 1,338,233 1,394,005 1,512,805 1,498,940 1,471,548 1,509,181 1,587,480 1981 1,236,161 1,324,348 1,328,892 1,338,040 1,359,340 1,403,030 1,423,570 1,465,619 ' 1982 961,490 957 449 979 027 1 023 722 1,027 158 1,034,075 1 049 416 1,080 832 , , , , , , , , , 1983 1,383,661 1,474,603 1,503,818 1,564,089 1,585,712 1,629,925 1,694,141 1,830,476 1984 2,121,745 2,108,610 2,172,336 2,305,830 2,293,296 2,268,395 2,274,203 2,285,880 1985 2,591,363 2,763,399 2,832,675 2,976,703 3,029,927 3,139,415 3,181,854 3,268,594 ' 1986 2,478,817 2,615,893 2,657,103 2,741,607 2,768,805 2,824,095 2,860,630 2,935,237 1987 2,728,050 2,944,656 3,022,878 3,185,863 3,245,711 3,368,990 1988 3,116,266 3,230,206 3,278,833 3,378,446 ' 1989 3,729,611 3,878,157 Development Factors 54 to 60 60 to 66 66 to 72 72 to 78 78 to 84 84 to 90 90 to 96 96 to 102 1978 1.039 1.056 1.116 1.020 1.040 1.023 1.047 0.991 1979 1.090 1.031 1.062 1.016 1.032 1.001 1.002 1.005 1980 1.097 1.042 1.085 0.991 0.982 1.026 1.052 1.001 1981 1.071 1.003 1.007 1.016 1.032 1.015 1.030 1.000 1982 0.996 1.023 1.046 1.003 1.007 1.015 1.030 1.005 1983 1.066 1.020 1.040 1.014 1.028 1.039 1.080 1.008 1984 0.994 1.030 1.061 0.995 0.989 1.003 1.005 1.010 1985 1.066 1.025 1.051 1.018 1.036 1.014 1.027 1.011 1986 1.055 1.016 1.032 1.010 1.020 1.013 1.026 1987 1.079 1.027 1.054 1.019 1.038 1988 1.037 1.015 1.030 1989 1.040 Selected: 1.053 1.021 1.044 1.013 1.020 1.017 1.030 1.009 Cumulative: 1.325 1.258 1.232 1.180 1.165 1.142 1.123 1.090 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 5, page 4. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON, INC. ' Exhibit 11 Page 3 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES County (As of June 30, 1993) ' Coverage Months of Development Year 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 1978 $1,560,535 $1,532,306 $1,546,624 $1,575,708 $1,581,102 $1,591,961 $1,620,146 $1,678,111 1979 1,507,483 1,523,537 1,528,183 1,537,532 1,555,533 - 1,592,224 1,578,693 1,551,935 1980 1,588,604 1,590,859 1,598,024 1,612,474 1,641,558 1,701,399 1,703,218 1,706,867 1981 1,466,128 1,467,147 1,491,541 1,541,629 1,5441085 1,549,016 1,551,076 1,555,211 1982 1,086,558 1,098,119 1,111,026 1,137,337 1,148,035 1,169,766 1,175,478 1,187,005 1983 1,845,657 1,876,446 1,877,982 1,881,063 1,893,524 1,918,732 1984 2,309,166 2,356,524 2,367,606 2,389,960 1985 3,305,308 3,380,094 ' 1986 Development Factors 102 to 108 108 to 114 114 to 120 120 to 126 126 to 132 132 to 138 138 to 144 144 to 150 1978 0.982 1.009 1.019 1.003 1.007 1.018 1.036 0.989 1979 1.011 1.003 1.006 1.012 1.024 0.992 0.983 1.001 ' 1980 1.001 1.005 1.009 1.018 1.036 1.001 1.002 1.000 1981 1.001 1.017 1.034 1.002 1.003 1.001 1.003 1.002 1982 1.011 1.012 1.024 1.009 1.019 1.005 1.010 1983 1.017 1.001 1.002 1.007 1.013 ' 1984 1.021 1.005 1.009 1985 1.023 ' Selected: 1.018 1.008 1.014 1.009 1.018 1.002 1.003 1.001 Cumulative: 1.080 1.061 1.053 1.038 1.029 1.011 1.009 1.006 NOTE: ' 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 5, page 4. ' MIUJMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 11 Page 4 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES County ' (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 150 156 162 168 174 180 186 192 1978 $1,659,194 $1,621,942 $1,624,563 $1,629,826 $1,632,525 $1,637,945 $1,641,952 $1,650,007 ' 1979 1,554,051 1,558,298 1,558,972 1,560,325 1,562,911 1,568,103 1980 1,707,573 1,708,986 1,710,329 1,713,020 1981 1,558,844 1,566,146 1 Development Factors 1 150 to 156 156 to 162 162 to 168 168 to 174 174 to 180 180 to 186 186 to 192 192 to Ult. 1978 0.978 1.002 1.003 1.002 1.003 1.002 1.005 1979 1.003 1.000 1.001 1.002 1.003 1980 1.001 1.001 1.002 1981 1.005 1982 ' 1983 1984 1985 ' Selected: 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.001 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.005 1.004 1.003 1.002 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 NOTE: 1 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 5, page 4. MIUUMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 12 Page 1 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION ' INCURRED LOSSES Consolidated Fire ' (As of June 30, 1993) ' Coverage Months of Development Year 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 1978 $140,185 $191,941 $202,117 $273,365 $308,645 $306,582 $317,689 1979 $131,556 270,429 312,132 278,413 274,658 263,204 189,814 171,215 1980 90,976 167,247 174,392 220,052 203,218 215,172 202,960 207,599 ' 1981 82,047 213,783 204,891 200,702 293,671 289,467 305,375 287,065 1982 71,897 216,384 349,088 351,793 298,064 315,701 320,095 323,693 1983 48,157 162,401 229,484 290,278 258,002 254,667 255,361 319,357 1984 74,812 188,111 235,520 328,396 325,120 434,252 445,727 489,781 ' 1985 91,435 383,533 425,224 551,699 675,468 745,948 816,478 899,215 1986 94,699 332,282 335,639 306,168 372,816 391,636 396,368 382,973 1987 181,194 320,441 434,251 460,712 446,536 408,121 372,906 371,941 ' 1988 300,239 564,471 583,959 502,464 554,299 555,939 530,327 560,695 1989 124,253 598,781 719,420 903,089 910,248 920,063 860,129 879,010 1990 244,586 746,474 768,773 896,365 882,662 785,791 803,269 743,648 1991 231,275 636,225 668,083 697,056 703,300 694,093 ' 1992 463,787 833,863 1,238,971 1,367,642 1993 334,794 834,703 Development Factors 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24 24 to 30 30 to 36 36 to 42 42 to 48 48 to 54 1978 1.369 1.053 1.353 1.129 0.993 . 1.036 0.945 ' 1979 2.056 1.154 0.892 0.987 0.958 0.721 0.902 0.982 1980 1.838 1.043 1.262 0.923 1.059 0.943 1.023 1.179 1981 2.606 0.958 0.980 1.463 0.986 1.055 0.940 0.990 ' 1982 3.010 1.613 1.008 0.847 1.059 1.014 1.011 1.041 1983 3.372 1.413 1.265 0.889 0.987 1.003 1.251 1.057 1984 2.514 1.252 1.394 0.990 1.336 1.026 1.099 1.002 ' 1985 4.195 1.109 1.297 1.224 1.104 1.095 1.101 1.026 1986 3.509 1.010 0.912 1.218 1.050 1.012 0.966 1.133 1987 1.768 1.355 1.061 0.969 0.914 0.914 0.997 0.944 1988 1.880 1.035 0.860 1.103 1.003 0.954 1.057 0.994 ' 1989 4.819 1.201 1.255 1.008 1.011 0.935 1.022 1.004 1990 3.052 1.030 1.166 0.985 0.890 1.022 0.926 1991 2.751 1.050 1.043 1.009 0.987 1992 1.798 1.486 1.104 1993 2.493 Selected: 2.631 1.168 1.118 1.026 1.001 0.976 1.009 1.016 Cumulative: 3.62 1.376 1.178 1.054 1.027 1.026 1.051 1.042 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 6, page 3. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 12 Page 2 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION ' INCURRED LOSSES Consolidated Fire (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 1978 $300,078 $304,736 $342,873 $343,570 $318,512 $319,718 $314,455 $314,476 ' 1979 168,141 180,420 163,780 163,853 160,353 160,353 161,947 171,189 1980 244,733 244,733 217,789 205,165 213,733 --211,173 211,375 211,514 1981 284,126 302,091 303,369 290,287 289,078 289,230 289,230 301,469 1 1982 337,021 336,958 341,158 422,876 474,714 523,583 386,578 425,045 1983 337,422 300,837 298,120 289,145 307,315 287,859 281,751 269,904 1984 490,532 476,811 485,475 471,779 464,673 450,759 442,126 425,328 ' 1985 922,867 963,263 957,448 945,906 928,504 894,605 889,694 879,940 1986 433,956 435,656 450,482 481,712 483,129 485,979 482,201 474,720 1987 351,133 368,720 365,414 358,881 386,878 449,697 1988 557,270 556,538 562,973 576,088 1989 882,519 913,340 Development Factors ' 54 to 60 60 to 66 66 to 72 72 to 78 78 to 84 84 to 90 90 to 96 96 to 102 1978 1.016 1.125 1.002 0.927 1+.004 0.984 1.000 1.001 1979 1.073 0.908 1.000 0.979 1.000 1.010 1.057 1.000 1980 1.000 0.890 0.942 1.042 0.988 1.001 1.001 1.000 1981 1.063 1.004 0.957 0.996 1.001 1.000 1.042 0.976 1982 1.000 1.012 1.240 1.123 1.103 0.738 1.100 1.003 ' 1983 0.892 0.991 0.970 1.063 0.937 0.979 0.958 0.994 1984 0.972 1.018 0.972 0.985 0.970 0.981 0.962 1.000 1985 1.044 0.994 0.988 0.982 0.963 0.995 0.989 0.995 1986 1.004 1.034 1.069 1.003 1.006 0.992, 0.984 1987 1.050 0.991 0.982 1.078 1.162 1988 0.999 1.012 1.023 1 1989 1.035 Selected: 1.015 1.002 1.008 1.012 1.013 0.986 0.992 0.998 Cumulative: 1.026 1.011 1.009 1.001 0.989 0.976 0.990 0.998 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 6, page 3. ■ ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 12 Page 3 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION ' INCURRED LOSSES Consolidated Fire ' (As of June 30, 1993) ' Coverage Months of Development Year 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 1978 $314,862 $281,339 $283,782 $284,374 $284,833 $288,312 $317,795 $307,096 ' 1979 171,189 171,189 168,395 159,283 162,587 162,413 162,966 160,812 1980 211,552 213,081 210,771 206,220 209,060 214,866 213,656 211,254 1981 294,098 282,671 292,511 313,261 311,049 306,666 306,666 306,666 1982 426,352 439,464 438,362 436,164 434,030 . 429,785 429,785 429,785 1983 268,322 265,179 265,179 265,179 265,179 265,179 1984 425,462 425,728 423,422 418,840 ' 1985 875,438 866,488 Development Factors 102 to 108 108 to 114 114 to 120 120 to 126 126 to 132 132 to 138 138 to 144 144 to 150 1978 0.894 1.009 1.002 1.002 1.012 1.102 0.966 0.984 ' 1979 1.000 0.984 0.946 1.021 0.999 1.003 0.987 1.000 1980 1.007 0.989 0.978 1.014 1.028 0.994 0.989 1.000 1981 0.961 1.035 1.071 0.993 0.986 1.000 1.000 0.979 1982 1.031 0.997 0.995 0.995 0.990 1.000 1.000 1983 0.988 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1984 1.001 0.995 0.989 1985 0.990 Selected: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 ' Cumulative: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 ' NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 6, page 3. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 12 Page 4 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION ' INCURRED LOSSES Consolidated Fire ' (As of June 30, 1993) ' Coverage Months of Development Year 150 156 162 168 174 180 186 192 ' 1978 $302,293 $292,898 $302,240 $325,067 $325,067 $325,067 $319,384 $302,298 1979 160,812 160,812 162,724 166,622 168,889 173,523 1980 211,254 211,254 211,254 211,254 1981 300,264 287,838 ' Development Factors 150 to 156 156 to 162 162 to 168 168 to 174 174 to 180 180 to 186 186 to 192 192 to Ult. 1978 0.969 1.032 1.076 1.000 1.000 0.983 0.947 ' 1979 1.000 1.012 1.024 1.014 1.027 1980 1.000 1.000 1.000 1981 0.959 Selected: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 ' Cumulative: 1.000 1.000 1.000 " 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 ' NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 6, page 3. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 13 Page 1 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES Consolidated Fire ' (As of June 30, 1993) ' Coverage Months of Development Year 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 1978 $0 $25,549 $66,918 $85,094 $114,846 $142,698 $162,885 $185,070 ' 1979 10,750 39,790 67,714 78,692 86,081 100,444 125,357 126,843 1980 19,666 47,790 89,641 94,171 102,516 114,887 129,879 161,302 1981 11,569 53,144 88,832 110,270 129,585 150,779 191,854 200,473 ' 1982 19,394 71,783 101,014 124,496 160,032 173,890 203,379 212,487 1983 13,263 52,847 97,331 126,313 158,162 175,104 198,554 210,698 1984 24,862 79,292 143,046 181,852 204,558 244,399 252,457 284,476 1985 18,190 85,784 186,658 242,245 313,144 369,979 464,416 575,696 1986 22,017 96,576 129,904 138,960 155,525 166,432 46,012 95,845 1987 17,681 69,230 120,842 132,711 100,186 112,151 196,315 212,944 1988 36,751 119,816 141,997 191,938 247,493 286,105 330,549 351,187 ' 1989 14,310 134,001 257,160 355,307 466,395 495,397 514,688 542,643 1990 62,458 169,310 288,762 371,734 440,788 468,004 512,510 538,359 1991 36,576 155,335 270,283 375,158 416,181 437,806 1992 107,953 272,376 533,928 703,443 1993 112,196 296,969 Development Factors ' 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24 24 to 30 30 to 36 36 to 42 42 to 48 48 to 54 1978 2.619 1.272 1.350 1.243 1.141 1.136 1.057 1979 3.701 1.702 1.162 1.094 1.167 1.248 1.012 1.048 1980 2.430 1.876 1.051 1.089 1.121 1.130 1.242 1.129 1981 4.594 1.672 1.241 1.175 1.164 1.272 1.045 1.033 1982 3.701 1.407 1.232 1.285 1.087 1.170 1.045 1.063 ' 1983 3.985 1.842 1.298 1.252 1.107 1.134 1.061 1.165 1984 3.189 1.804 1.271 1.125 1.195 1.033 1.127 1.033 1985 4.716 2.176 1.298 1.293 1.181 1.255 1.240 0.862 1986 4.386 1.345 1.070 1.119 1.070 0.276 2.083 2.549 1987 3.916 1.746 1.098 0.755 1.119 1.750 1.085 1.036 1988 3.260 1.185 1.352 1.289 1.156 1.155 1.062 1.026 ' 1989 9.364 1.919 1.382 1.313 1.062 1.039 1.054 1.072 1990 2.711 1.706 1.287 1.186 1.062 1.095 1.050 1991 4.247 1.740 1.388 1.109 1.052 1992 2.523 1.960 1.317 ' 1993 2.647 Selected: 3.032 1.831 1.344 1.205 1.083 1.180 1.063 1.045 Cumulative: 18.871 6.224 3.399 2.529 2.099 1.938 1.642 1.545 NOTE: ' 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 6, page 4. ' MILLIMAN &ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 13 Page 2 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES Consolidated Fire ' (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 1978 $195,586 $209,892 $225,096 $254,659 $269,912 $273,181 $281,986 $283,353 1979 132,880 147,388 149,988 151,761 151,761 151,761 153,905 153,991 1980 182,166 186,474 190,659 191,879 198,023 196,107 196,776 197,024 1981 207,093 221,881 240,274 227,962 228,673 229,903 232,881 237,333 1982 225,896 232,977 250,312 256,918 316,014 326,741 106,862 141,107 1983 245,491 250,745 263,570 264,683 108,901 128,444 163,512 265,179 1984 293,921 316,306 129,188 102,754 253,641 352,059 354,908 360,685 1985 496,219 560,535 648,696 728,965 735,203 747,860 749,644 753,229 ' 1986 244,305 260,130 283,091 335,357 342,040 355,829 365,796 386,608 1987 220,638 240,755 246,176 257,404 284,058 346,034 1988 360,302 367,744 375,145 390,422 ' 1989 581,662 634,869 ' Development Factors 54 to 60 60 to 66 66 to 72 72 to 78 78 to 84 84 to 90 90 to 96 96 to 102 1978 1.073 1.072 1.131 1.060 1.012 1.032 1.005 1.004 1979 1.109 1.018 1.012 1.000 1.000 1.014 1.001 1.000 ' 1980 1.024 1.022 1.006 1.032 0.990 1.003 1.001 1.001 1981 1.071 1.083 0.949 1.003 1.005 1.013 1.019 0.413 1982 1.031 1.074 1.026 1.230 1.034 0.327 1.320 1.416 ' 1983 1.021 1.051 1.004 0.411 1.179 1.273 1.622 1.000 1984 1.076 0.408 0.795 2.468 1.388 1.008 1.016 1.005 1985 1.130 1.157 1.124 1.009 1.017 1.002 1.005 1.007 ' 1986 1.065 1.088 1.185 1.020 1.040 1.028 1.057 1987 1.091 1.023 1.046 1.104 1.218 1988 1.021 1.020 1.041 1989 1.091 Selected: 1.065 1.050 1.055 1.057 1.099 1.030 1.026 1.003 ' Cumulative: 1.478 1.388 1.322 1.253 1.185 1.078 1.047 1.020 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 6, page 4. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 13 Page 3 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES Consolidated Fire ' (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 1978 $284,451 $251,580 $254,015 $255,945 $257,614 $260,990 $211,602 $139,007 ' 1979 154,019 154,426 154,686 154,877 65,219 75,330 95,860 155,342 1980 197,212 197,518 83,573 96,411 122,611 198,694 198,831 199,106 1981 98,033 112,624 146,320 247,168 248,044 249,808 251,135 253,817 ' 1982 199,854 401,323 401,323 401,323 401,323 401,323 401,458 401,728 1983 265,179 265,179 265,179 265,179 265,179 265,179 1984 362,309 365,583 367,513 371,410 1985 758,532 769,267 ' 1986 Development Factors 102 to 108 108 to 114 114 to 120 120 to 126 126 to 132 132 to 138 138 to 144 144 to 150 1978 0.884 1.010 1.008 1.007 1.013 0.811 0.657 0.014 1979 1.003 1.002 1.001 0.421 1.155 1.273 1.621 0.013 1980 1.002 0.423 1.154 1.272 1.621 1.001 1.001 0.010 1981 1.149 1.299 1.689 1.004 1.007 1.005 1.011 0.008 1982 2.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.001 1983 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 t 1984 1.009 1.005 1.011 1985 1.014 ' Selected: 1.008 1.005 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.017 1.009 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 ' NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 6. page 4. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. tExhibit 13 Page 4 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES Consolidated Fire (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 150 156 162 168 174 180 186 192 1978 $173,098 $268,587 $279,641 $303,169 $303,205 $303,279 $303,279 $303,279 ' 1979 155,816 156,769 156,905 157,178 160,523 167,438 . 1980 199,185 199,342 199,433 199,616 1981 255,700 259,515 Development Factors 150 to 156 156 to 162 162 to 168 168 to 174 174 to 180 180 to 186 186 to 192 192 to Ult. 1978 1.552 1.041 1.084 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1979 1.006 1.001 1.002 1.021 1.043 1980 1.001 1.000 1.001 1981 1.015 ' Selected: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 6. page 4. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 14 Page 1 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION INCURRED LOSSES Riverview Fire (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 ' 1978 $0 $27,000 $29,630 $27,385 $28,385 $33,238 $38,838 $51,249 1979 27,900 69,081 42,968 68,347 63,107 33,607 33,608 25,680 1980 28,744 29,037 23,282 21,843 21,440 21,004 21,004 21,004 1981 20,525 43,698 24,569 25,505 24,905 23,117 24,217 26,685 1982 8,563 22,102 22,592 29,941 26,083 26,083 26,084 28,770 1983 12,539 41,655 99,143 96,853 97,153 196,436 197,741 193,442 1984 7,415 32,697 37,411 39,087 53,628 55,283 60,384 60,704 1985 19,601 61,548 51,524 76,888 58,151 68,716 88,334 87,793 1986 35,850 110,128 104,134 169,489 162,461 164,843 165,519 161,999 1987 82,109 80,884 99,835 127,420 129,420 115,670 98,119 98,119 1988 24,878 54,620 145,881 146,814 139,155 139,155 139,155 165,185 1989 67,251 183,637 219,718 236,189 247,587 247,587 247,587 290,587 1990 81,210 106,426 98,745 183,990 181,687 181,687 202,413 185,410 1991 257,943 424,440 422,598 414,779 420,818 513,005 1992 52,489 169,883 262,902 279,978 1993 150,737 463,889 Development Factors 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24 24 to 30 30 to 36 36 to 42 42 to 48 48 to 54 1 1978 1.097 0.924 1.037 1.171 1.168 1.320 1.088 1979 2.476 0.622 1.591 0.923 0.533 1.000 0.764 0.857 1980 1.010 0.802 0.938 0.982 0.980 1.000 1.000 1.000 1 1981 2.129 0.562 1.038 0.976 0.928 1.048 1.102 1.000 1982 2.581 1.022 1.325 0.871 1.000 1.000 1.103 1.000 1983 3.322 2.380 0.977 .1.003 2.022 1.007 0.978 1.000 1984 4.410 1.144 1.045 1.372 1.031 1.092 1.005 1.000 1985 3.140 0.837 1.492 0.756 1.182 1.285 0.994 1.000 1986 3.072 0.946 1.628 0.959 1.015 1.004 0.979 0.639 1987 0.985 1.234 1.276 1.016 0.894 0.848 1.000 0.994 1988 2.196 2.671 1.006 0.948 1.000 1.000 1.187 1.000 1989 2.731 1.196 1.075 1.048 1.000 1.000 1.174 0.986 1990 1.311 0.928 1.863 0.987 1.000 1.114 1 1991 1.645 0.996 0.981 1.015 1992 3.237 1.548 Selected: 2.395 1.174 1.214 0.998 1.043 1.013 1.056 0.952 Cumulative: 3.824 1.597 1.360 1.120 1.122 1.076 1.062 1.006 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 7, page 3. ' MILLIMAN &ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 14 Page 2 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION INCURRED LOSSES Riverview Fire (As of June 30, 1993} Coverage Months of Development Year 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 y 96 1978 $55,734 $47,344 $54,139 $47,795 $43,515 $45,217 $45,793 $45,793 1979 22,005 32,005 115,383 68,127 68,203 68,203 68,203 68,203 1980 21,004 21,004 17,570 17,570 17,570 17,570 17,570 17,570 1981 26,685 26,910 26,910 26,890 26,890 26,890 26,890 26,890 1982 28,770 28,770 28,770 28,770 28,770 28,770 27,730 27,708 1983 193,442 207,942 231,302 217,013 215,001 211,027 209,449 206,324 1984 60,704 60,704 58,500 57,234 58,427 60,700 57,159 50,675 1985. 87,793 86,779 86,779 86,779 86,779 86,779 86,779 86,779 1986 103,509 103,509 103,509 103,509 103,671 103,998 102,508 99,587 1987 97,569 102,034 104,619 109,996 115,992 129,003 1988 165,185 180,092 . 183,552 190,685 1989 286,647 286,647 Development Factor's 54 to 60 60 to 66 66 to 72 72 to 78 78 to 84 84 to 90 90 to 96 96 to 102 1978 0.849 1.144 0.883 0.910 1.039 1.013 1.000 1.016 1979 1.454 3.605 0.590 1.001 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1980 1.000 0.837 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1981 1.008 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.964 1982 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.964 0.999 1.013 1983 1.075 1.112 0.938 0.991 0.982 0.993 0.985 0.980 1984 1.000 0.964 0.978 1.021 1.039 0.942 0.887 1.000 1985 0.988 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1986 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.003 0.986 0.972 1987 1.046 1.025 1.051 1.055 1.112 1988 1.090 1.019 1.039 1989 1.000 Selected: 1.026 1.011 1.010 1.005 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.057 1.030 1.019 1.009 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 7, page 3. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON, INC. iExhibit 14 Page 3 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION ' INCURRED LOSSES Riverview Fire (As of June 30, 1993) ' Coverage Months of Development Year 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 ' 1978 $46,520 $46,520 $46,520 $46,520 $46,520 $46,520 $43,983 $44,459 1979 68,203 68,203 68,203 50,964 65,736 65,685 60,363 50,964 1980 17,570 17,570 16,935 16,921 17,134 17,570 16,217 13,811 1981 25,922 25,898 26,224 26,890 26,890 26,890 26,890 26,890 1982 28,057 28,770 28,770 28,770 28,770 28,770 28,770 28,770 1983 202,179 194,126 194,126 194,126 193,324 191,728 1984 50,675 50,675 50,675 50,675 1985 86,779 86,779 Development Factors 102 to 108 108 to 114 114 to 120 120 to 126 126 to 132 132 to 138 138 to 144 144 to 150 1978 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.945 1.011 1.015 1979 1.000 1.000 0.747 1.290 0.999 0.919 0.844 0.935 1980 1.000 0.964 0.999 1.013 1.025 0.923 0.852 1.000 1981 0.999 1.013 1.025 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1982 1.025 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1983 0.960 1.000 1.000 0.996 0.992 1984 1.000 1.000 1.000 1985 1.000 Selected: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 7, page 3. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 14 Page 4 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION INCURRED LOSSES Riverview Fire (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage _ Months of Development Year 150 156 162 168 174 180 186 192 1978 $45,148 $46,561 $45,987 $44,859 $44,859 $44,859 $44,859 $44,859 ' 1979 47,667 41,691 41,691 41,691 41,691 41,691 1980 13,811 13,811 13,811 13,811 1981 26,890 26,890 ' Development Factors 150 to 156 156 to 162 162 to 168 168 to 174 174 to 180 180 to 186 186 to 192 192 to Ult. 1978 1.031 .0.988 0.975 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1979 0.875 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1980 1.000 1.000 1.000 1981 1.000 Selected: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 7, page 3. 1 MILLIMAN &ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 15 Page 1 of 4 Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES Riverview Fire 1 (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 1978 $2,248 $5,066 $5,967 $9,729 $17,205 $21,142 $25,535 ' 1979 $3,441 6,957 12,947 15,148 15,193 15,193 15,193 15,193 1980 3,656 7,347 8,450 8,573 13,811 13,811 13,811 13,811 1981 7,171 15,123 20,081 22,801 22,801 23,117 23,117 25,625 1982 3,740 10,498 14,385 14,862 16,245 16,413 17,264 23,951 1983 5,256 13,057 36,023 50,601 58,732 89,696 104,853 122,399 1984 3,023 18,400 31,498 37,247 42,299 44,639 49,740 50,060 1985 7,121 11,845 14,734 29,768 57,610 68,175 78,847 79,648 ' 1986 8,875 26,539 45,907 63,346 67,203 67,723 68,233 68,523 1987 9,374 16,434 30,683 39,402 45,785 57,000 59,716 70,721 1988 2,513 14,512 42,299 56,485 65,769 69,743 74,313 78,431 1989 5,954 28,011 65,277 82,788 122,990 134,336 145,451 164,324 1990 7,282 25,777 60,711 73,227 78,285 81,910 90,148 98,981 1991 61,384 136,622 180,766 207,528 256,469 277,708 0 0 1992 9,149 41,762 117,292 150,586 0 0 0 0 1993 14,447 119,999 0 0 0 0 0 0 Development Factors 6 to 12 12 to 18 18 to 24 24 to 30 30 to 36 36 to 42 42 to 48 48 to 54 1978 2.254 1.178 1.630 1.768 1.229 1.208 1.449 ' 1979 2.022 1.861 1.170 1.003 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1980 2.010 1.150 1.015 1.611 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1981 2.109 1.328 1.135 1.000 1.014 1.000 1.108 1.003 1982 2.807 1.370 1.033 1.093 1.010 1.052 1.387 0.933 1983 2.484 2.759 1.405 1.161 1.527 1.169 1.167 1.082 1984 6.087 1.712 1.183 1.136 1.055 1.114 1.006 1.006 1985 1.663 1.244 2.020 1.935 1.183 1.157 1.010 1.001 1986 2.990 1.730 1.380 1.061 1.008 1.008 1.004 1.000 1987 1.753 1.867 1.284 1.162 1.245 1.048 1.184 1.018 1988 5.775 2.915 1.335 1.164 1.060 1.066 1.055 1.172 1989 4.705 2.330 1.268 1.486 1.092 1.083 1.130 1990 3.540 2.355 1.206 1.069 1.046 1991 2.226 1.323 1.148 1992 4.565 Selected: 4.042 2.066 1.238 1.238 1.100 1.074 1.103 1.073 Cumulative: 18.925 4.682 2.266 1.83 1.478 1.344 1.251 1.134 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 7, page 4. ' MIU IMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 15 Page 2 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES Riverview Fire ' (As of June 30, 1993) ' Coverage Months of Development Year 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 1978 $36,992 $39,557 $42,864 $43,515 $43,515 $43,515 $44,091 $44,091 ' 1979 15,193 15,412 19,081 38,367 38,938 40,239 40,589 41,623 1980 13,811 13,811 13,811 13,811 13,811 13,811 13,811 13,811 1981 25,690 25,915 25,915 26,890 26,890 26,890 26,890 26,890 1982 22,353 22,353 22,186' 22,409 22,409 22,490 23,407 23,241 1983 132,376 156,291 169,585 172,106 166,035 174,146 177,203 183,488 1984 50,346 50,679 52,884 53,765 53,554 50,675 50,675. 50,675 1985 79,738 79,919 82,539 80,259 80,762 81,779 81,954 82,305 1986 68,523 68,523 68,523 68,523 68,685 69,012 69,012 69,012 1987 71,995 77,745 79,302 82,513 84,834 89,681 1988 91,953 108,855 115,279 129,310 ' 1989 207,479 207,479 Development Factors 54 to 60 60 to 66 66 to 72 72 to 78 78 to 84 84 to 90. 90 to 96 96 to 102 1978 1.069 1.084 1.015 1.000 1.000 1.013 1.000 1.016 1979 1.014 1.238 2.011 1.015 1.033 1.009 1.025 1.000 1980 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1981 1.009 1.000 1.038 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.041 1982 1.000 0.993 1.010 1.000 1.004 1.041 0.993 0.989 1983 1.181 1.085 1.015 0.965 1.049 1.018 1.035 1.002 1984 1.007 1.044 1.017 0.996 0.946 1.000 1.000 1.000 1985 1.002 1.033 0.972 1.006 1.013 1.002 1.004 1.002 1986 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.002 1.005 1.000 1.000 ' 1987 1.080 1.020 1.040 1.028 1.057 1988 1.184 1.059 1.122 1989 1.000 Selected: 1.034 1.008 1.005 1.005 1.003 1.001 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.057 1.022 1.014 1.009 1.004 1.001 1.000 1.000 1 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 7, page 4. 1 MIUUMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 15 Page 3 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS'COMPENSATION ' CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES Riverview Fire (As of June 30, 1993) ' Coverage Months of Development Year 102 108 114 120 126 132 138 144 1978 $44,818 $44,818 $44,818 $44,818 $44,818 $44,818 $46,105 $46,168 1979 41,623 41,691 41,691 41,691 42,095 42,606 42,299 41,691 1980 13,811 13,811 14,476 14,345 14,165 13,811 13,811 13,811 1981 27,999 27,891 27,554 26,890 26,890 26,890 26,890 26,890 1982 22,988 22,490 22,490 22,490 22,490 22,490 22,490 22,490 ' 1983 183,915 184,775 184,968 185,357 185,295 187,068 1984 50,675 50,675 50,675 50,675 1985 82,437 82,703 1986 ' Development Factors 102 to 108 108 to 114 114 to 120 120 to 126 126 to 132 132 to Ult. 138 to 144 144 to Ult. 1978 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.029 1.001 0.990 1979 1.002 1.000 1.000 1.010 1.012 0.993 0.986 1.000 1980 1.000 1.048 0.991 0.987 0.975 1.000 1.000 1.000 1981 0.996 0.988 0.976 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1982 0.978 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 ' 1983 1.005 1.001 1.002 1.000 1.010 1984 1.000 1.000 1.000 1985 1.003 Selected: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 7, page 4. MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. iExhibit 15 Page 4 of 4 ' Contra Costa County WORKERS' COMPENSATION ' CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES Riverview Fire ' (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 150 156 162 168 174 180 186 192 1978 $45,728 $44,859 $44,859 $44,859 $44,859 $44,859 $44,859 $44,859 ' 1979 41,691 41,691 41,691 41,691 41,691 41,691 1980 13,811 13,811 13,811 13,811 1981 26,890 26,890 r Development Factors 150 to 156 156 to Ult. 162 to 168 168 to Ult. 174 to 180 180 to Ult. 186 to 192 192 to Ult. 1978 0.981 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1979 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1980 1.000 1.000 1.000 1981 1.000 Selected: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 7, page 4. ' MILLIMAN &ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 16 Page 1 of 2 Contra Costa County GENERAL LIABILITY INCURRED LOSSES (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage _ Months of Development Year 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 148 1976 $119,858 $119,858 1977 $1,756,956 2,113,617 2,221,197 1978 $845,572 827,522 821,764 813,708 1979 $473,911 497,372 491,614 472,001 462,357 1980 $893,513 891,460 843,446 763,809 776,652 776,652 1981 $483,348 $581,594 $694,105 687,740 755,970 824,186 757,347 741,922 741,922 1982 843,427 1,154,128 1,377,411 1,624,516 1,460,423 1,939,489 1,665,592 1,635,152 1,629,387 1983 1,280,065 1,756,536 2,830,294 3,341,594 3,492,943 4,230,286 4,017,416 4,001,135 3,990,362 1984 494,532 540,701 788,826 1,171,105 1,270,035 3,282,478 3,156,664 3,131,358 3,251,670 1985 1,007,067 1,253,348 1,655,492 2,014,143 2,175,952 2,188,836 2,122,837 3,692,007 3,599,827 1986 520,317 1,922,745 3,039,672 2,783,594 3,082,021 5,072,715 3,109,487 3,196,846 1987 751,357 1,759,665 2,277,838 2,631,784 1,722,873 1,583,400 1,989,471 1988 1,092,196 1,820,026 2,273,815 2,346,529 1,786,565 1,826,150 1989 1,158,900 1,671,133 2,027,536 1,732,172 2,333,190 1990 2,270,524 3,338,079 1,310,573 2,334,345 1991 1,053,968 3,482,608 3,589,119 1992 3,881,450 4,068,553 1993 2,435,634 Development Factors 12 to 24 24 to 36 36 to 48 48 to 60 60 to 72 72 to 84 84 to 96 96 to 108 108 to 120 1976 1.000 1.000 1977 1.203 1.051 1.000 1978 0.979 0.993 0.990 1.002 1979 1.050 0.988 0.960 0.980 1.001 1 1980 0.998 0.946 0.906 1.017 1.000 1.000 1981 1.203 1.193 0.991 1.099 1.090 0.919 0.980 1.000 1.000 1982 1.368 1.193 1.179 0.899 1.328 0.859 0.982 0.996 0.989 1983 1.372 1.611 1.181 1.045 1.211 0.950 0.996 0.997 0.662 1984 1.093 1.459 1.485 1.084 2.585 0.962 0.992 1.038 0.974 1985 1.245 1.321 1.217 1.080 1.006 0.970 1.739 0.975 1986 3.695 1.581 0.916 1.107 1.646 0.613 1.028 1987 2.342 1.294 1.155 0.655 0.919 1.256 1988 1.666 1.249 1.032 0.761 1.022 - 1989 1.442 1.213 0.854 1.347 1990 1.470 0.393 1.781 1991 3.304 1.031 1992 1.048 Selected: 1.764 1.135 1.111 1.010 1.175 0.956 1.024 1.001 1.000 Cumulative: 2.590 1.468 1.293 1.164 1.152 0.980 1.025 1.001 1.000 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 8, page 3 MILLIMAN&RBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 16 Page 2 of 2 ' Contra Costa County GENERAL LIABILITY ' INCIURRED LOSSES (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 ' 1976 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 1977 2,221,197 2,221,197 2,221,197 2,221,197 2,221,197 2,221,197 2,231,881 2,247,878 1978 815,322 815,322 815,322 8115,322 815,322 742,760 829,658 ' 1979 462,815 462,815 462,815 462,815 539,231- 502,622 1980 776,652 777,402 777,402 831,190 769,256 1981 741,922 741,922 780,745 838,375 ' 1982 1,610,806 1,752,614 1,709,689 1983 2,639,897 2,546,899 1984 3,166,057 ' 1985 Development Factors 120 to 132 132 to 144 144 to 156 156 to 168 168 to 180 180 to 192 192 to 204 204 to 216 216 to Ult. 1976 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1977 1.000 1.000 1..000 1.000 1.000 1.005 1.007 1978 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.911 1.117 ' 1979 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.165 0.932 1980 1.001 1.000 1.069 0.925 1981 1.000 1.052 1.074 ' 1982 1.088 0.976 1983 0.965 1984 ' Selected: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 ' NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 8, page 3 ' MILLIMAN &ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 17 Page 1 of 2 Contra Costa County GENERAL LIABILITY CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 12 24 36 48 60- 72 84 96 108 1976 $1,534 $24,050 $44,105 $74,107 $87,900 $109,831 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 1977 14,672 82,739, 100,107 147,538 382,581 397,166 486,956 488,617 2,221,197 1978 33,068 85,213 132,184 208,094 331,817 553,572 778,522 781,764 798,708 ' 1979 47,872 118,719 173,457 257,426 409,811 430,272 441,614 447,001 462,357 1980 39,215 167,675 378,984 508,288 654,710 729,946 733,809 776,652 776,652 1981 44,998 158,844 292,855 419,890 469,470 742,686 756,347 741,922 741,922 1982 81,227 211,828 484,911 700,516 1,004,423 1,532,989 . 1,595,592 1,610,152 1,610,387 1983 104,665 347,386 819,694 2,289,394 2,755,343 3,219,186 3,401,916 3,532,635 3,550,362 1984 97,607 253,651 433,976 785,605 862,785 3,033,478 3,131,664 3,131,358 3,251,670 1985 97,317 318,548 744,142 994,643 1,439,952 1,594,336 1,688,837 3,421,206 3,520,988 1986 116,967 456,695 872,222 1,243,094 1,523,521 1,765,215 3,034,487 3,034,833 1987 143,957 465,515 766,238 1,157,284 1,441,373 1,512,003 1,514,095 1988 96,413 528,426 1,673,315 1,816,029 1,764,514 1,772,164 ' 1989 190,984 577,383 891,036 1,026,013 1,205,990 1990 276,480 878,240 974,230 1,404,756 1991 84,588 1,193,774 2,464,069 1992 845,485 1,960,792 1993 163,528 Development Factors 12 to 24 24 to 36 36 to 48 48 to 60 60 to 72 72 to 84 84 to 96 96 to 108 108 to 120 1976 15.678 1.834 1.680 1.186 1.249 1.091 1.000 _ 1.000 1.000 ' 1977 5.639 1.210 1.474 2.593 1.038 1.226 1.003 4.546 _ 1.000 1978 2.577 1.551 1.574 1.595 1.668 1.406 1.004 1.022 1.021 1979 2.480 1.461 1.484 1.592 1.050 1.026 1.012 1.034 1.001 ' 1980 4.276 2.260 1.341 1.288 1.115 1.005 1.058 1.000 1.000 1981 3.530 1.844 1.434 1.118 1.582 1.018 0.981 1.000 1.000 1982 2.608 2.289 1.445 1.434 1.526 1.041 1.009 1.000 1.000 ' 1983 3.319 2.360 2.793 1.204 1.168 1.057 1.038 1.005 0.620 1984 2.599 1.711 1.810 1.098 3.516 1.032 1.000 1.038 1.000 1985 3.273 2.336 1.337 1.448 1.107 1.059 2.026 1.029 ' 1986 3.904 1.910 1.425 1.226 1.159 1.719 1.000 1987 3.234 1.646 1.510 1.245 1.049 1.001 1988 5.481 3.167 1.085 0.972 1.004 1989 3.023 1.543 1.151 1.175 1990 3.177 ,1.109 1.442 1991 14.113 2.064 1992 2.319 Selected: 5.078 1.933 1.325 1.148 1.080 1.138 1.014 1.018 1.000 Cumulative: 18.936 3.729 1.929 1.456 1.268 1.174 1.032 1.018 1.000 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 8, page 4. MILLIMAN &ROBERTSON,INC. Exhibit 17 Page 2 of 2 Contra Costa County GENERAL LIABILITY ' CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of development Year 120 122 144 156 168 180 192 224 216 1976 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 $119,858 1977 2,221,197 2,221,197 2,221,197 2,221,197 2,221,197 2,221,197 2,231,881 2,231,881 1978 815,322 815,322 815,322 815,322 815,322 740,760 741,191 1979 462,815 462,815 462,815 462,815 539,231 539,231 1980 776,652 777,402 777,402 831,190 831,190 1981 741,922 741,922 780,745 780,745 1982 1,610,806 1,752,614 1,752,614 1983 2,199,897 2,231,238 1984 3,251,670 Development Factors 120 to 132 132 to 144 144 to 156 156 to 168 168 to 180 180 to 192 192 to 204 204 to 216 216 to Ult. ' 1976 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1977 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.005 1.000 1978 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.909 1.001 1979 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.165 1.000 1980 1.001 1.000 1.069 1.000 1981 1.000 1.052 1.000 1982 1.088 1.000 1983 1.014 Selected: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.,000 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows,the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 8, page 4. ' MIUUMA,N&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 18 Page 1 of 2 ' Contra Costa County MEDICAL MALPRACTICE ' INCURRED LOSSES (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development Year 12 24 36 46 60 72 84 96 108 ' 1976 $432,945 $432,945 1977 $87,718 158,733 142,072 1978 $2,380,383 2,627,529 2,746,688 2,782,151 1979 $858,168 901,053 900,064 890,411 890,411 1980 $1,280,564 1,648,090 1,879,183 1,719,757 1,771,954 1,388,312 1981 $822,158 $932,831 $1,133,581 1,376,487 1,411,171 1,277,280 1,287,808 1,287,808 1,287,808 1982 416,023 1,141,370 1,335,989 2,098,074 2,854,697 2,852,762 2,728,697 2,735,193 2,735,193 1983 332,227 434,063 260,989 237,991 206,057 198,983 166,349 166,482 166,482 1984 502,535 911,513 1,591,165 2,182,784 1,534,789 1,421,620 1,438,746 1,457,822 1,533,259 1985 297,558 469,752 511,941 662,617 666,187 932,349 732,944 739,854 739,854 ' 1986 123,050 279,434 360,976 322,006 273,421 279,771 192,823 192,823 1987 463,944 776,827 695,855 768,906 940,218 683,526 675,350 1988 370,389 368,376 953,549 798,192 716,144 791,144 1989 486,884 319,354 755,804 891,529 803,780 1990 576,244 1,363,644 1,197,579 3,264,979 1991 129,506 608,222 653,379 ' 1992 325,932 1,869,029 1993 364,500 Development Factors ' 12 to 24 24 to 36 36 to 48 48 to 60 60 to 72 72 to 84 84 to 96 96 to 108 108 to 120 1976 1.000 1.000 1977 1.810 0.895 1.000 1978 1.104 1.045 1.013 1.049 1979 1.050 0.999 0.989 1.000 1.000 1980 1.287 1.140 0.915 1.030 0.783 1.000 ' 1981 1.135 1.215 1.214 1.025 0.905 1.008 1.000 1.000 1.000 1982 2.744 1.171 1.570 1.361 0.999 0.957 1.002 1.000 1.000 1983 1.307 0.601 0.912 0.866 0.966 0.836 1.001 1.000 0.881 ' 1984 1.814 1.746 1.372 0.703 0.926 1.012 1.013 1.052 1.000 1985 1.579 1.090 1.294 1.005 1.400 0.786 1.009 1.000 1986 2.271 1.292 0.892 0.849 1.023 0.689 1.000 ' 1987 1.674 0.896 1.105 1.223 0.727 0.988 1988 0.995 2.589 0.837 0.897 1.105 1989 0.656 2.367 1.180 0.902 1990 2.366 0.878 2.726 ' 1991 4.696 1.074 1992 5.734 'Selected: 2.758 1.517 1.192 1.013 1.010 1.005 1.003 1.001 1.000 Cumulative: 5.146 1.866 1.230 1.032 1.019 1.009 1.004 1.001 1.000 'NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 9, page 3. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 18 Page 2 of 2 ' Contra Costa County MEDICAL MALPRACTICE ' INCURRED LOSSES (As of June 30, 1993) ' Coverage Months of Development Year 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 ' 1976 $432,945 $432,945 $432,945 $432,945 $432,945 $432,945 $432,945 $427,082 $427,082 1977 142,072 142,072 142,072 142,072 142,072 142,072 156,846 156,846 1978 2,917,496 2,959,086 3,006,214 3,054,881 3,103,183 2,796,850 2,849,809 ' 1979 890,411 890,411 890,411 890,411 890,410 890,410 1980 1,388,395 1,388,312 1,387,724 1,608,485 1,608,485 1981 1,287,808 1,287,808 1,299,941 1,300,112 1982 2,735,193 2,734,834 2,734,834 1983 146,681 146,681 1984 1,533,259 ' Development Factors 120 to 132 132 to 144 144 to 156 156 to 168 168 to 180 180 to 192 192 to 204 204 to 216 216 to Ult. ' 1976 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.986 1.000 1977 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.104 1.000 1978 1.014 1.016 1.016 1.016 0.901 1.019 ' 1979 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1980 1.000 1.000 1.159 1.000 1981 1.000 1.009 1.000 ' 1982 1.000 1.000 1983 1.000 Selected: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 NOTE: ' 1. This exhibit shows the historical incurred loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 9, page 3. ' MIU IMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 19 Page 1 of 2 ' Contra Costa County MEDICAL MALPRACTICE ' CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development - Year 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 1976 $3,065 $6,133 $14,607 $422,351 $422,622 $422,622 $432,945 $432,945 $432,945 1977 807 10,964 17,362 22,163 31,165 51,646 59,218 108,733 142,072 ' 1978 2,679 23,738 70,359 2,040,892 2,187,582 2,317,883 2,500,029 2,544,188 2,582,151 1979 859 14,405 31,352 841,637 853,168 856,053 890,064 890,411 890,411 1980 3,934 29,795 695,439 882,564 1,145,090 1,509,183 1,559,757 1,611,954 1,388,312 1981 2,158 32,831 253,581 296,487 811,171 1,227,280 1,287,808 1,287,808 1,287,808 ' 1982 1,023 33,870 78,489 103,074 1,138,197 2,551,262 2,728,697 2,735,193 2,735,193 1983 1,227 94,063 120,989 126,991 146,057 148,983 166,349 166,482 166,482 1984 835 61,513 '181,165 822,784 1,164,789 1,318,620. 1,373,746 1,457,822 1,533,259 1985 4,058 44,652 101,941 202,617 331,187 457,349 692,944 739,854 739,854 1986 1,450 39,184 150,976 162,006 183,421 189,771 192,823 192,823 1987 8,694 36,827 135,855 219,906 438,718 673,526 675,350 1988 21,739 260,726 325,899 717,542 716,144 716,144 1989 131,734 149,354 370,804 409,555 504,730 1990 3,044 410,644 472,579 713,387 1991 2,506 122,279 333,422 1992 7,329 155,420 1993 3,330 ' Development Factors 12 to 24 24 to 36 36 to 48 48 to 60 60 to 72 72 to 84 84 to 96 96 to 108 108 to 120 1976 2.001 2.382 28.914 1.001 1.000 1.024 1.000 1.000 1.000 ' 1977 13.586 1.584 1.277 1.406 1.657 1.147 1.836 1.307 1.000 1978 8.861 2.964 29.007 1.072 1.060 1.079 1.018 1.015 1.014 1979 16.769 2.176 26.845 1.014 1.003 1.040 1.000 1.000 1.000 ' 1980 7.574 23.341 1.269 1.297 1.318 1.034 1.033 0.861 1.000 1981 15.214 7.724 1.169 2.736. 1.513 1.049 1.000 1.000 1.000 1982 33.109 2.317 1.313 11.043 2.241 1.070 1.002 1.000 1.000 ' 1983 76.661 1.286 1.050 1.150 1.020 1.117 1.001 1.000 0.881 1984 73.668 2.945 4.542 1.416 1.132 1.042 1.061 1.052 1.000 1985 11.003 2.283 1.988 1.635 1.381 1.515 1.068 1.000 1986 27.023 3.853 1.073 1.132 1.035 1.016 1.000 1987 4.236 3.689 1.619 1.995 1.535 1.003 1988 11.993 1.250 2.202 0.998 1.000 1989 1.134 2.483 1.105 1.232 ' 1990 134.903 1.151 1.510 1991 48.794 2.727 1992 21.205 Selected: 39.416 1.903 1.609 1.339 1.219 1.062 1.033 1.013 1.000 Cumulative: 218.798 5.551 2.917 1.813 1.354 1.111 1.046 1.013 1.000 'NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 9age 4. ' MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC. ' Exhibit 19 Page 2 of 2 ' Contra Costa County MEDICAL MALPRACTICE CUMULATIVE PAID LOSSES (As of June 30, 1993) Coverage Months of Development ' Year 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 1976 $432,945 $432,945 $432,945 $432,945 $432,945 $432,945 $432,945 $427,082 $427,082 1977 142,072 142,072 142,072 142,072 142,072 142,072 156,846 156,846 1978 2,617,496 2,659,086 2,706,214 2,754,881 2,803,183 2,796,850 2,849,809 1979 890,411 890,411 890,411 890,411 890,410 890,410 1980 1,388,312 1,388,312 1,387,724 1,608,485 1,608,485 ' 1981 1,287,808 1,287,808 1,299,941 1,300,112 1982 2,735,193 2,734,834 2,734,834 1983 146,681 146,681 ' 1984 1,533,259 Development Factors ' 120 to 132 132 to 144 144 to 156 156 to 168 168 to 180 180 to 192 192 to 204 204 to 216 216 to Ult. 1976 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 - 1.0100 0.986 1.000 1977 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.104 1.000. ' 1978 1.016 1.018 1.018 1.018 0.998 1.019 1979 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1980 1.000 1.000 1.159 1.000 ' 1981 1.000 1.009 1.000 1982 1.000 1.000 1983 1.000 Selected: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Cumulative: 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 , 1.000 NOTE: 1. This exhibit shows the historical paid loss development factors and the selected factors used to produce the estimates of ultimate losses shown in Exhibit 9, page 4. 1 MILLIMAN&ROBERTSON,INC.