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1025 ESCOBAR STREET
MARTINEZ, CA 94553CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
Legislation Details (With Text)
File #: Version:124-0271 Name:
Status:Type:Discussion Item Agenda Ready
File created:In control:1/23/2024 BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
On agenda:Final action:1/30/2024
Title:ACCEPT the report from Beacon Economics: "Social Narratives, Economic Realities, and the Outlook
for 2024." (Christopher Thornberg, Beacon Economics)
Attachments:1. Beacon Economics Presentation
Action ByDate Action ResultVer.Tally
To:Board of Supervisors
From:Monica Nino, County Administrator
Report Title:Report from Beacon Economics
☒Recommendation of the County Administrator ☐ Recommendation of Board Committee
RECOMMENDATIONS:
ACCEPT the report from Beacon Economics: "Social Narratives, Economic Realities, and the Outlook for
2024."
FISCAL IMPACT:
This report is for informational purposes and has no specific fiscal impact.
BACKGROUND:
Attached is the Beacon Economics report: "Social Narratives, Economic Realities, and the Outlook for 2024."
CONSEQUENCE OF NEGATIVE ACTION:
N/A
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Printed on 2/28/2024Page 1 of 2
powered by Legistar™
File #:24-0271,Version:1
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Printed on 2/28/2024Page 2 of 2
powered by Legistar™
Social Narratives, Economic
Realities, and the Outlook for ’24
Focus on Contra Costa County
January 2024
Christopher Thornberg, PhD
beaconecon.com
Founding Partner, Beacon Economics
There was no risk of a “hard landing”
•Excess demand causes inflation, not recessions
•Higher interest rates offset by high liquidity, low private sector debt
Outlook for 24—more of the same
•Consumer demand still strong, fiscal stimulus still a net positive
•Fed likely to moderate stance, albeit not as much as the market thinks
The California economy is fine
•Budget deficit is a function of a broken revenue system
•Housing supply constraints behind population loss
Economic reality checks
•Record federal deficits to keep long run rates high
•Asset prices remain frothily high
•Labor supply issues constrain overall US growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24
WSJ Recession Probability Forecast
Chance of US entering a recession in the next 12 months
Average Beacon
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Q4Q1Q22021Q3Q4Q1Q22022Q3Q4Q1Q22023Q3US Real Growth in Final Demand
Final Demand
2021 2022 2023
GDP 5.43 0.68 3.07
Final Demand 5.42 0.77 3.19
Personal consumption 4.76 0.78 1.93
Goods 1.48 -0.15 0.78
Services 3.28 0.93 1.15
Fixed investment 0.69 -0.15 0.53
Structures -0.03 0.03 0.43
Equipment 0.10 0.26 -0.01
IPP 0.60 0.43 0.16
Residential 0.02 -0.87 -0.05
Net exports -0.82 0.20 0.18
Exports 0.71 0.52 0.12
Imports -1.53 -0.32 0.07
Government -0.02 0.13 0.73
Federal 0.05 -0.02 0.26
State and local -0.06 0.15 0.46
Annual Avg Contributions to Real Growth
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Jul-12Mar-14Nov-15Jul-17Mar-19Nov-20Jul-22Retail: Restaurant and Bars
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
Jan-19Sep-19May-20Jan-21Sep-21May-22Jan-23Nevada Gaming
Revenues
38% higher
than pre-
pandemic
0
50
100
150
200
250
2016Q1Q4Q3Q22019Q1Q4Q3Q22022Q1Q4Q3Real Spending on Travel
Foreign Visitors to US
US Visitors Abroad
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
07:Q107:Q408:Q309:Q210:Q110:Q411:Q312:Q213:Q113:Q414:Q315:Q216:Q116:Q417:Q318:Q219:Q119:Q420:Q321:Q222:Q122:Q423:Q3Household Distress
(thousands / Quarter)
foreclosure bankruptcy
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
13:Q113:Q314:Q114:Q315:Q115:Q316:Q116:Q317:Q117:Q318:Q118:Q319:Q119:Q320:Q120:Q321:Q121:Q322:Q122:Q323:Q123:Q3% Debt 90+ Days Delinquent
MORTGAGE HELOC AUTO CC
300000
350000
400000
450000
500000
550000
600000
Jan-11Dec-11Nov-12Oct-13Sep-14Aug-15Jul-16Jun-17May-18Apr-19Mar-20Feb-21Jan-22Dec-22Nov-23Factory Orders (Nominal)
85.0
87.0
89.0
91.0
93.0
95.0
97.0
99.0
101.0
103.0
105.0
Apr-11Apr-12Apr-13Apr-14Apr-15Apr-16Apr-17Apr-18Apr-19Apr-20Apr-21Apr-22Apr-23US Industrial Production
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2015Q1Q4Q3Q22018Q1Q4Q3Q22021Q1Q4Q3Q2National Incomes (BEA)
Proprietors' income Corporate profits
US Real Fixed Investment 2023 Change Change
Q3 2022 2019
Private fixed investment 3964 0.8%5.7%
Residential 734 -7.8%-4.6%
Software 720.9 7.9%53.6%
Research and development 606.4 0.9%18.3%
Information processing equip 475.3 -8.1%10.5%
Transportation equipment 275.8 13.9%-8.1%
Industrial equipment 250.6 -0.3%-3.0%
Commercial and health care Str 169.3 2.0%-11.5%
Manufacturing Str 130.6 65.7%80.1%
Power and communication 103.7 3.0%-24.9%
Mining exploration and wells 102.5 -7.2%-21.2%
Entertainment, literary, and artistic 94.6 0.2%5.1%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Sep-02Apr-04Nov-05Jun-07Jan-09Aug-10Mar-12Oct-13May-15Dec-16Jul-18Feb-20Sep-21Apr-23Unemployment and Job Openings
Unemployment rate Job Opening rate
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-02Aug-03Mar-05Oct-06May-08Dec-09Jul-11Feb-13Sep-14Apr-16Nov-17Jun-19Jan-21Aug-22Real Wage Growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Nov-13Jul-14Mar-15Nov-15Jul-16Mar-17Nov-17Jul-18Mar-19Nov-19Jul-20Mar-21Nov-21Jul-22Mar-23Nov-23Unemployment Rate
Alameda County Contra Costa County
San Francisco County
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
Mar-16Sep-16Mar-17Sep-17Mar-18Sep-18Mar-19Sep-19Mar-20Sep-20Mar-21Sep-21Mar-22Sep-22Mar-23Contra Costa County Payrolls (000s)
Establishments Payroll Emp
Education
2022
Earnings
($)
1-Year
Chg. (%)
Chg.
Since
2017 (%)
Population 25 and older 67,425 7.6 30.4
Less than High School 33,840 4.6 28.8
High School Diploma 42,000 -6.2 19.2
Some College 54,635 6.0 30.1
Bachelor's Degree 93,010 11.5 24.6
Grad/Prof Degree 128,372 23.9 34.1
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Poverty Rate
Alameda Contra Costa
California San Francisco
Contra Costa Data Q4-22
Emp.
County
1-Year
Change
(%)
LQ
Total 366.8 3.0 1.0
Fin. Svcs. and Real Estate 24.6 -1.0 1.4
Health Care 67.9 3.8 1.3
Retail Trade 41.5 2.2 1.3
Other Svcs.12.4 4.5 1.1
Leisure and Hospitality 39.2 5.2 1.0
Prof, Sci, Tech, and Mgmt 33.2 0.8 1.0
NR/Construction 28.0 5.2 1.0
Admin Support 24.3 0.0 1.0
Education 7.3 3.3 1.0
Government 46.2 3.9 0.9
Transport/Warehouse/Util 14.3 7.7 0.8
Wholesale Trade 8.2 3.3 0.6
Manufacturing 13.9 1.3 0.5
Information 5.7 -3.1 0.5
Industry Employment for East Bay
Industry Dec-23 1 Yr Gr
Ch Pre-
Pand
Total Nonfarm 1206.5 1.9%5.5
Health Care 197.5 5.2%20.2
Manufacturing 114.2 0.8%12.7
Logistics 55.4 -1.6%10.7
NR/Construction 80.9 6.0%2.9
Prof Sci Tech 105.3 -2.5%2.5
Other Services 42.1 7.4%0.5
Education 23.9 2.6%-0.7
Management 24.4 0.0%-1
Financial Activities 51.8 0.2%-3.5
Wholesale Trade 40.4 -2.9%-4.3
Information 23.2 -5.7%-4.4
Leisure and Hospitality 116.5 5.4%-5.6
Retail Trade 105.6 0.6%-5.6
Admin Support 60.4 -4.9%-8.6
Government 165 3.7%-10.3
Metro Q3-23 ($)1-Yr Chg.
(%)
Chg.
Since
Q4-19 (%)
Average Daily Rate
East Bay 145.00 -3.9 -8.2
San Francisco (MD)218.61 -9.5 -0.7
San Jose 166.93 -1.1 -11.5
RevPAR
East Bay 94.10 -11.5 -21.4
San Francisco (MD)150.26 -19.0 -19.4
San Jose 112.69 2.3 -20.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Q3-13Q3-14Q3-15Q3-16Q3-17Q3-18Q3-19Q3-20Q3-21Q3-22Q3-23Occupancy Rates
East Bay San Francisco (MD)San Jose
Metro Cost of Rent
Q3-23 ($)
Cost of Rent
1-Yr Growth (%)
Vacancy Rate
Q3-23 (%)
Vacancy Rate
1-Yr Change (pp)
Office
East Bay 34.88 -0.5 18.0 0.4
San Francisco (MD)64.21 -1.0 17.3 2.6
San Jose 48.41 0.6 21.6 1.4
Stockton 18.47 -0.1 23.0 0.4
Retail
East Bay 32.07 0.7 8.7 -0.3
San Francisco (MD)41.17 0.4 6.1 1.1
San Jose 38.34 1.5 5.8 0.2
Stockton 20.66 0.1 7.6 -0.2
Year Firm Births Firm
Deaths
Total Net
Change
Total
Firms*
2018 1,020 532 +488 15,118
2019 980 494 +486 15,108
2020 869 469 +400 15,023
2021 845 712 +133 15,156
2022 1,403 427 +976 16,132
0 40,000 80,000 120,000
500 or More Employees
250 to 499 Employees
100 to 249 Employees
50 to 99 Employees
10 to 49 Employees
4 to 9 Employees
Less than 4 Employees
Employment by Establishment Size
*Establishments with 3 or more employees
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Q1-08Q1-09Q1-10Q1-11Q1-12Q1-13Q1-14Q1-15Q1-16Q1-17Q1-18Q1-19Q1-20Q1-21Q1-22Small Business Employment
Small Business 1-Year Growth
Industry Q4-22
Emp.
County
1-Year
Change
(%)
State
1-Year
Change
(%)
Share of
County
(%)
Total Private 94,665 2.4 2.8 29.5
Leisure and Hospitality 17,670 5.6 5.2 45.1
Health Care 14,325 3.1 3.8 21
NR/Construction 13,676 2.4 5.2 48.8
Prof, Sci, Tech, and Mgmt 10,198 -0.9 0.8 30.7
Admin Support 7,291 1.6 0 30
Other Svcs.6,858 2.9 4.5 55.2
Retail Trade 6,263 1.8 2.2 15.1
Fin. Svcs. and Real Estate 5,167 -1.9 -1 21
Manufacturing 3,723 1.2 1.3 26.7
Education 3,178 7.4 3.3 43.4
Wholesale Trade 3,091 1.3 3.3 37.8
Transport/Warehouse/Util 2,211 4.2 7.7 15.5
Information 1,014 -8.2 -3.1 17.8
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Q1-08Q1-09Q1-10Q1-11Q1-12Q1-13Q1-14Q1-15Q1-16Q1-17Q1-18Q1-19Q1-20Q1-21Q1-22Small Business Wages
Small Business Total
Industry
Q4-22
Avg.
Wage
County
1-Year
Change
(%)
State
1-Year
Change
(%)
Small
vs. Total
(%)
Total Private 66.1 0.9 -2.1 -17.2
Information 147.6 -1.8 -11.8 4.7
Prof, Sci, Tech, and Mgmt 110.8 1.2 -2.0 -17.8
Fin. Svcs. and Real Estate 110.7 0.5 -5.4 -7.8
Wholesale Trade 96.4 -2.1 1.6 -10.7
Manufacturing 85.5 10.4 2.3 -22.3
NR/Construction 79.7 2.3 2.8 -13.7
Transport/Warehouse/Util 65.8 3.0 -1.6 -37.3
Admin Support 60.0 3.0 -4.5 -7.7
Health Care 57.5 2.0 -1.3 -23.5
Retail Trade 51.6 2.7 -0.3 6.0
Other Svcs.49.0 0.9 -2.9 -0.2
Education 39.0 2.7 -1.1 -19.8
Leisure and Hospitality 29.0 2.7 1.3 -4.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
4,500.0
5,000.0
5,500.0
6,000.0
6,500.0
7,000.0
7,500.0
Jan-06Jul-08Jan-11Jul-13Jan-16Jul-18Jan-21US Existing Home Sales
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan-12Sep-13May-15Jan-17Sep-18May-20Jan-22Housing Starts SAAR
Single Family Multi-Family
$220.0
$240.0
$260.0
$280.0
$300.0
$320.0
$340.0
$360.0
$380.0
$400.0
$420.0
Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23US Median Home Prices
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Nov-13Nov-14Nov-15Nov-16Nov-17Nov-18Nov-19Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Nov-23Indexed Homes Sold
Contra Costa Alameda San Francisco
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
Nov-13Nov-14Nov-15Nov-16Nov-17Nov-18Nov-19Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Nov-23Indexed Home Prices
Contra Costa Alameda San Francisco
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Jan-88Mar-90May-92Jul-94Sep-96Nov-98Jan-01Mar-03May-05Jul-07Sep-09Nov-11Jan-14Mar-16May-18Jul-20Sep-22PCE Inflation Rate (YoY)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21Jun-22Dec-22Jun-23Dec-23Interest Rates
10 year T 30 Year FR 1 Year T
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Dec-14Dec-15Dec-16Dec-17Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22Dec-23SP500
Beacon Economics
Social Narratives Economic Reality
The Positive
Value of
Bitcoin
The
Unsustainable
Federal Deficit
Ticketmaster
fees are too
high
üNarratives skewing interpretations of economic news
üNarratives at the root of economic bubbles
üNarratives driving bad policy choices
“We need to incorporate the contagion of narratives into economic
theory. Otherwise, we remain blind to a very real … mechanism for
economic change..”
―R. Shiller, Narrative Economics
Beacon Economics
Beacon Economics
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%R - 4R - 2RecessionR + 2R + 4R + 6R + 8R + 10R + 12R + 14R + 16R + 18R + 20R + 22R + 24R + 26R + 28R + 30R + 32R + 34R + 36Quarters Around Recession Start
Output Gap (Real GDP - Potential GDP)
Great Recession Pandemic
Beacon Economics
Actual Lost GDP: $1.2 Trillion
Fiscal Stimulus: $6 Trillion
$50,000 in stimulus / household
$5 trillion in QE, 35% increase M2
Recreational goods / vehicles 67.5%
Furnishings and Appliances 19.6%
Clothing and footwear 19.2%
Motor vehicles and parts 10.8%
Food services / accommodations 9.7%
Health care 9.5%
Grocery etc 7.0%
Housing and utilities 6.8%
Recreation services 2.6%
Financial services and insurance 2.1%
Transportation services 1.0%
Gasoline other energy goods -2.6%
Growth in Real Spending
Q3 19- Q3 23
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%Oct-00May-02Dec-03Jul-05Feb-07Sep-08Apr-10Nov-11Jun-13Jan-15Aug-16Mar-18Oct-19May-21Dec-223 Year Growth
M2 HH Net Worth
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
Jan-61Jul-64Jan-68Jul-71Jan-75Jul-78Jan-82Jul-85Jan-89Jul-92Jan-96Jul-99Jan-03Jul-06Jan-10Jul-13Jan-17Jul-20Unit Money Supply (M2 / GDP)
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%Jan-65Oct-68Jul-72Apr-76Jan-80Oct-83Jul-87Apr-91Jan-95Oct-98Jul-02Apr-06Jan-10Oct-13Jul-17Apr-21M2 Growth (2 Year)
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Sep-22Jan-23May-23Sep-23Consumer Price Growth
Durables NonDurables Housing / Utilities
Dec
Sales YoY Gr
Retail & food services Total 709,890 4.8%
Food services & drinking places 94,559 11.1%
Electronics & appliance stores 7,679 10.4%
Nonstore retailers 120,496 9.7%
Motor vehicle & parts dealers 136,507 8.3%
Clothing & clothing accessories 26,611 2.9%
General merchandise stores 74,032 2.2%
Food & beverage stores 83,124 1.0%
Building material & garden eq 41,665 -2.3%
Furniture & home furn stores 10,783 -5.0%
Gasoline stations 53,169 -8.4%
Nominal Retail Sales
Category Q2-23
($, 000s)
1-Year
Chg. (%)
Chg.
Since
Q4-19
(%)
Total 55,754 -1.8 16.6
Business and Industry 6,935 9.4 46.9
Restaurants and Hotels 6,440 4.5 20.3
County & State Pool 11,611 2.6 22.0
Autos and Transportation 8,321 -0.2 10.8
Food and Drugs 3,273 -1.2 15.8
General Consumer Goods 9,712 -5.7 5.8
Building and Construction 4,724 -8.5 16.1
Fuel and Service Stations 4,954 -18.6 7.8
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Q2-13Q2-14Q2-15Q2-16Q2-17Q2-18Q2-19Q2-20Q2-21Q2-22Q2-23Indexed Tax Receipts
Alameda Contra Costa San Francisco
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
Jan-17Aug-17Mar-18Oct-18May-19Dec-19Jul-20Feb-21Sep-21Apr-22Nov-22TrillionsUS Household Net Worth
+ 35$T
+ 32%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
Jan-11Feb-12Mar-13Apr-14May-15Jun-16Jul-17Aug-18Sep-19Oct-20Nov-21Dec-22US Household Checkable Deposits
$Billions
2022 Real growth 13-22
Median Mean Median Mean
As Percentile of income
Less than 20 16.9 180.5 119%65%
20–39.9 55.4 199.3 94%39%
40–59.9 171.3 422.9 118%97%
60–79.9 299.0 597.1 48%41%
80–89.9 792.8 1,317.9 107%63%
90–100 2,650.5 6,518.2 84%55%
As Percentile of net worth
Less than 25 3.5 -5.3 n.a.n.a.
25–49.9 93.3 98.8 134%117%
50–74.9 356.3 373.7 67%65%
75–89.9 1,036.2 1,102.4 61%59%
90–100 3,794.6 7,810.5 59%52%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-02Nov-03Sep-05Jul-07May-09Mar-11Jan-13Nov-14Sep-16Jul-18May-20Mar-22Index of Total Net Worth by Wealth
Level
90-99 50-90 < 50
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%03:Q104:Q306:Q107:Q309:Q110:Q312:Q113:Q315:Q116:Q318:Q119:Q321:Q122:Q3Consumer Debt as % of DPI
HE Revolving Credit Card
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%07:Q108:Q310:Q111:Q313:Q114:Q316:Q117:Q319:Q120:Q322:Q1YoY Growth Consumer Credit
HE Revolving Credit Card
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
110.0%
120.0%
130.0%Jan-95Oct-96Jul-98Apr-00Jan-02Oct-03Jul-05Apr-07Jan-09Oct-10Jul-12Apr-14Jan-16Oct-17Jul-19Apr-21Jan-23Debt to GDP ratios
Households Feds (Net)
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Jul-97Feb-99Sep-00Apr-02Nov-03Jun-05Jan-07Aug-08Mar-10Oct-11May-13Dec-14Jul-16Feb-18Sep-19Apr-21Nov-22Household Debt Service Ration as %
DPI (Fed Est.)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%Jan-64Oct-67Jul-71Apr-75Jan-79Oct-82Jul-86Apr-90Jan-94Oct-97Jul-01Apr-05Jan-09Oct-12Jul-16Apr-205 Year Change in Consumer Prices
(PCE Basis)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan-82Jul-84Jan-87Jul-89Jan-92Jul-94Jan-97Jul-99Jan-02Jul-04Jan-07Jul-09Jan-12Jul-14Jan-17Jul-19Jan-2210 Year Treasury Real Interest Rate
Cleveland Fed Estimate
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
Jan-01Feb-03Mar-05Apr-07May-09Jun-11Jul-13Aug-15Sep-17Oct-19Nov-21Job Openings / Unemployed
Person
80.0
80.5
81.0
81.5
82.0
82.5
83.0
83.5
84.0
84.5
85.0
Jan-99Apr-01Jul-03Oct-05Jan-08Apr-10Jul-12Oct-14Jan-17Apr-19Jul-21Participation Rate Ages 25-54
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%1971197519791983198719911995199920032007201120152019Sources of New Population
Birth Rate Net Immigration Rate
12 8 4 0 4 8 12
>5
10 to 14
20 to 24
30 to 34
40 to 44
50 to 54
60 to 64
70 to 74
80 to 84
Population (Millions)
2022 US Population by Sex
Women Men
“People have two modes of thought: “System
1” is fast, instinctive and emotional; “System
2″ is slower, more deliberative, and more
logical.”
“System 1 is gullible and biased to believe,
System 2 is in charge of doubting and
unbelieving, but System 2 is sometimes busy,
and often lazy”
― D. Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow
Some Examples of
Cognitive Biases
Anchoring bias
Apophenia
Availability heuristic
Cognitive dissonance
Confirmation bias
Egocentric bias
Extension neglect
False priors
Framing effect
Logical fallacy
Prospect theory
Self-assessment
Truth judgment
Are the horizontal lines parallel?
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Gasoline Price Average Per Gallon130000
150000
170000
190000
210000
230000
250000
270000
290000
310000
2021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q2Real Consumption of Gasoline
+50%-1.5%
4
2
Rank
2023
Rank
2022
California 50 50
New York 49 49
Illinois 48 48
New Jersey 47 47
Oregon 46 45
Washington 45 46
Massachusetts 44 44
Hawaii 43 42
Connecticut 42 43
Alaska 41 36
Minnesota 40 41
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
$2,200
$2,400
$2,600
Apr-09Jun-10Aug-11Oct-12Dec-13Feb-15Apr-16Jun-17Aug-18Oct-19Dec-20Feb-22Apr-23Taxable Sales (SA, Millions)CA Taxable Sales
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
Jan-05Dec-06Nov-08Oct-10Sep-12Aug-14Jul-16Jun-18May-20Apr-22CA Business Applications
(High Propensity)
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%2019:Q12019:Q32020:Q12020:Q32021:Q12021:Q32022:Q12022:Q32023:Q1Real GDP Growth (YoY)
US CA
Change 2019 – 2023
US CA
Real GDP Growth 8.0%9.1%
Change in Payroll Jobs 3.6%3.8%
Nominal Per Capita Income Growth 23.3%25.5%
Average Annual Earnings Growth 4.5%4.9%
Home Price Appreciation 47.5%43.6%
Change in Unemployment Rate 0.3 0.8
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan-18Aug-18Mar-19Oct-19May-20Dec-20Jul-21Feb-22Sep-22Apr-23Indexes of Payroll
Employment
US CA
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Jan-02Mar-04May-06Jul-08Sep-10Nov-12Jan-15Mar-17May-19Jul-21Job Opening Rate
US CA
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Jan-07Sep-08May-10Jan-12Sep-13May-15Jan-17Sep-18May-20Jan-22Unemployment Rate
US CA
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
2021-01-02 2022-01-02 2023-01-02
CA Initial Claims for Unemployment
Insurance CA
500000
700000
900000
1100000
1300000
1500000
1700000
Jan-21Apr-21Jul-21Oct-21Jan-22Apr-22Jul-22Oct-22Jan-23Apr-23Jul-23Oct-23CA Unemployed Workers
Beacon Economics
National Income
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2016Q1Q32017Q1Q32018Q1Q32019Q1Q32020Q1Q32021Q1Q32022Q1Q32023Q1Q3Index of National Income by
Source
Employee Comp Proprietor Income
Corporate Profits
-$200
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
2015Q1Q4Q3Q22018Q1Q4Q3Q22021Q1Q4Q3Q2State and Local Gov Finances
$Billions SAAR
Current receipts Net Income
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
91-0193-0395-0597-0799-0901-1104-0106-0308-0510-0712-0914-1117-0119-0321-05TrillionsHH Net Worth and Growth
Level 3 Yr Growth %
Deficit!Deficit!
Deficit?
CA CG Income Tax Revenues
(LAO Estimate)
02-12 12-22 Rank
Utah 14.3%29.3%1
Idaho 12.6%23.1%2
Arizona 13.8%18.4%3
Colorado 12.3%16.4%4
Texas 17.7%16.0%5
Florida 16.0%15.3%6
Washington 11.9%15.0%7
Nevada 20.5%13.4%8
Nebraska 6.3%4.6%24
Minnesota 2.7%4.3%25
California 7.2%4.1%26
Hawaii 8.1%4.0%27
New Jersey 5.3%3.6%28
Vermont 3.1%-3.3%48
Maine 3.3%-3.7%49
Wyoming 12.7%-3.9%50
Mississippi 3.1%-6.0%51
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
Jan-89May-91Sep-93Jan-96May-98Sep-00Jan-03May-05Sep-07Jan-10May-12Sep-14Jan-17May-19Sep-21CA vs TX? Put ‘em up!
(Houses that is)
California Texas
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%Jan-97Dec-98Nov-00Oct-02Sep-04Aug-06Jul-08Jun-10May-12Apr-14Mar-16Feb-18Jan-20Dec-21Labor Force Growth (5 year)
California United States
Payrolls Unemployment Rate Labor Force
Aug-23
Ch from
Feb 20 Aug-23
Ch from
Feb 20 Aug-23
Ch from Feb
20
Stockton 278.8 10.2%5.9 -0.2 345.2 3.8%
Sacramento 1095.2 5.7%4.1 0.4 1132.5 2.3%
Inland Empire 1677.3 5.6%4.6 0.5 2154.9 2.5%
Fresno 388.6 4.8%7.1 -0.4 458.2 0.6%
Bakersfield 290.8 4.1%7.9 -0.4 394.4 0.5%
San Diego 1573.0 3.5%3.7 0.4 1597.3 0.6%
San Jose 1187.9 2.2%3.5 0.8 1082.6 -0.6%
Orange County (MD)1712.2 1.6%3.4 0.5 1600.5 -1.2%
San Francisco (MD)1214.3 1.0%3.0 0.7 1037.5 -1.2%
Modesto 184.9 0.8%6.4 0.2 240.2 -1.7%
Oakland (MD)1208.0 0.6%3.9 0.8 1386.9 -1.4%
Ventura 317.4 0.5%4.1 0.4 415.8 -1.8%
Los Angeles (MD)4648.4 0.3%5.0 0.0 5023.0 -4.3%
Santa Rosa 209.1 -0.7%3.5 0.7 249.1 -3.4%
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
20022004200620082010201220142016201820202022Net Change (thousands)Population (Mils)California- Population Change
Population Net Migration
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010201220142016201820202022CA Housing Vacancy Rates (HVS)
Rental Home
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
1000
1020
1040
1060
1080
1100
1120
1140
1160
1180
2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023Population and Households
Population Households
2.60
2.65
2.70
2.75
2.80
2.85
2.90
2.95
3.00
2011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023People per Household Average
CCC California
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Nov-13Nov-14Nov-15Nov-16Nov-17Nov-18Nov-19Nov-20Nov-21Nov-22Nov-23Months of Supply
California Contra Costa Alameda
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Q3-13Q3-14Q3-15Q3-16Q3-17Q3-18Q3-19Q3-20Q3-21Q3-22Q3-23Apartment Vacancy Rates
East Bay San Francisco (MD)San Jose
Location
Single-
Family
Units
Single-
Family 10-
Year
Change
Single-
Family 10-
Year
Change
(%)
Multi-
Family
Units
(000s)
Multi-
Family 10-
Year
Change
Multi-
Family 10-
Year
Change
(%)
Alameda County 378,348 22,137 6.2 255,850 33,424 15.0
Contra Costa
County 320,401 19,885 6.6 103,235 7,013 7.3
San Francisco County 128,471 3,055 2.4 289,091 36,343 14.4
San Joaquin County 206,702 23,426 12.8 47,677 3,614 8.2
Santa Clara County 430,335 21,989 5.4 252,879 40,832 19.3
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
20012003200520072009201120132015201720192021CC County Res Permits
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan-11Oct-11Jul-12Apr-13Jan-14Oct-14Jul-15Apr-16Jan-17Oct-17Jul-18Apr-19Jan-20Oct-20Jul-21Apr-22Jan-23Oct-23MSA Level Permits
SF / EB SF SF / EB MF
57
11.0%
11.5%
12.0%
12.5%
13.0%
13.5%
14.0%
14.5%
15.0%1997199920012003200520072009201120132015201720192021CA’s share of US
Labor Force Share GDP Share
Education AZ CA CO
Net
Migration 109,116 -71,099 109,061
Less Than HS -64,750 -185,830 -17,652
HS Grad 32,261 -39,856 -13,481
Some College -32,376 -352,870 -39,336
BA 101,014 166,445 120,066
Grad 72,967 341,012 59,464
Net Migration by Educational Attainment
(Total from 2019-2022)
Educational Attainment 2022 10-Year
Change
Population 25 to 64 years 495,136 7.5
Less than HS 46,098 5.8
HS Graduate 80,838 4.7
Some College 127,708 -10.9
Bachelor's or Higher 240,614 22.2
95
97
99
101
103
105
107
109
111
113
115
Nov-13Jun-14Jan-15Aug-15Mar-16Oct-16May-17Dec-17Jul-18Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23Oct-23Indexed Labor Force
Alameda County Contra Costa County
San Francisco County
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Median Household Income
Alameda Contra Costa
California San Francisco
Income
Contra
Costa
County
2022
1-Year
Chg. (%)
Chg.
Since
2019 (%)
Total Households 415,194 0.0 0.0
Less than $25,000 43,041 -0.2 0.2
$25,000 to $49,999 46,314 -0.8 -0.5
$50,000 to $99,999 85,730 -1.6 -4.1
$100,000 to $149,999 74,364 -0.3 -1.0
More than $150,000 165,745 2.8 5.4
Location 2017 2022
% Owners Cost Burdened
California 38.4%37.8%
Alameda 32.8%32.0%
Contra Costa 36.1%35.8%
San Francisco 36.6%34.3%
% Renters Cost Burdened
California 55.3%56.0%
Alameda 49.7%52.3%
Contra Costa 53.7%56.9%
San Francisco 37.1%37.6%
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Contra Costa County % Rent Burdened
Extensive: Increasing labor force
•Immigration reform
•In LA: Housing Supply is WF Development, not affordability
Intensive: Raising participation rates among
the existing population
•Seniors, childcare support, skill upgrading
Productivity enhancements: worker skill
training
•Vocational skills in short supply
•Not all college degrees are created equal
Productivity enhancements: capital
investments
•Capital improves productivity and this improves incomes
Rapid changes need an adaptive worker
•Teaching anti-fragility
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2022
CC Labor Force Participation by
Education
Less than High School
High School Diploma
Some College
Bachelor's Degree or Higher
We were never actually in the woods
•Household finances, consumer demand driving the economy
•Economic indicators remain solid, growth to continue
•Fed will likely back off some
Headwinds will intensify
•Inflation will stay above target
•LR Rates will stay higher longer
•Public deficits are unsustainable
•Asset prices too high
•Economic growth to slow—but no recession
The big issue: Narratives
•Labor supply not consumer demand
•Inflation is not a problem, the Fed is
•Government deficits are going to have to be dealt with
2024 Forecast Highlights
•GDP Growth 1.7%
•Unemployment Rate: 3.9%
•10 Year Treasury: 4.9%
•30 Year FR Mortgage: 8.1%
•HPI Forecast: 1.7%
•Housing Starts: 1.42m
“People can believe pretty much whatever they want to
believe about moral and political issues, as long as some
other people near them believe it, so you have to focus on
indirect methods to change what people want to believe.
― Jonathan Haidt, The Righteous Mind: Why Good People are Divided
by Politics and Religion
“Sapiens rule the world because only they can weave an
intersubjective web of meaning: a web of laws, forces, entities
and places that exist purely in their common imagination.
― Yuval Noah Harari, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1993-94 1996-97 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06 2008-09 2011-12 2014-15 2017-18 2020-21 2023-24 2026-27($, Mil)Contra Costa County AV Forecast
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1993-94 1996-97 1999-00 2002-03 2005-06 2008-09 2011-12 2014-15 2017-18 2020-21 2023-24 2026-27Growth (%)Contra Costa County AV Forecast
7,000,000
9,000,000
11,000,000
13,000,000
15,000,000
17,000,000
19,000,000
21,000,000
2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 2020-21 2022-23 2024-25 2026-27$Contra Costa County Sales and Use Tax
Forecast
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 2020-21 2022-23 2024-25 2026-27Growth (%)Contra Costa County Sales and Use Tax
Forecast
Thank You!
California EDD
HdL Companies
Redfin
REIS
California DOF
U.S. Census Bureau
Sources
Chris@BeaconEcon.com
beaconecon.com
•Economic Outlooks
•Revenue Forecasts
•Cost Projections
•Regional Development
•Housing Studies
•Impact Reports
•CEDS Analysis
•Policy Studies
•Industry Studies
•Labor Markets
Get In Touch With Us:
Kristen@beaconecon.com
Beaconecon.com
1025 ESCOBAR STREET
MARTINEZ, CA 94553CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
Legislation Details (With Text)
File #: Version:124-0272 Name:
Status:Type:Discussion Item Passed
File created:In control:1/23/2024 BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
On agenda:Final action:1/30/2024 1/30/2024
Title:ACCEPT report on budget development drivers and considerations for FY24-25 and beyond. (Monica
Nino, County Administrator, Adam Nguyen, County Finance Director, and Tim Ewell, Chief Assistant
County Administrator)
Attachments:1. County Administrator Presentation
Action ByDate Action ResultVer.Tally
approvedBOARD OF SUPERVISORS1/30/2024 1 Pass 5:0
To:Board of Supervisors
From:Monica Nino, County Administrator
Report Title:Budget Development Drivers and Considerations for FY24-25
☒Recommendation of the County Administrator ☐ Recommendation of Board Committee
RECOMMENDATIONS:
ACCEPT report on budget development key drivers and considerations for FY24-25 and beyond.
FISCAL IMPACT:
This report is for informational purposes only. No fiscal impact.
BACKGROUND:
Attached is the report on County Budget Development - Key Drivers and Considerations.
CONSEQUENCE OF NEGATIVE ACTION:
N/A
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Printed on 2/28/2024Page 1 of 2
powered by Legistar™
File #:24-0272,Version:1
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Printed on 2/28/2024Page 2 of 2
powered by Legistar™
County Administrator’s Office
January 30, 2024
County Budget Development
Key Drivers and Considerations
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Agenda
2
1.County financial updates
2.COVID Cost Recovery / ARPA
3.Budgeting concerns
4.FY24-25 budget hearing calendar
5.Recommendations
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Bay Area Counties Unemployment Rates
3
Nov-2023 Nov-2022
Alameda 4.5%3.2%
Contra Costa 4.5%3.4%
Marin 3.7%2.6%
Napa 3.7%3.2%
San Francisco 3.5%2.4%
San Mateo 3.3%2.3%
Santa Clara 3.8%2.5%
Solano 4.8%4.0%
Sonoma 3.7%3.0%
Bay Average 3.9%3.0%
Statewide 4.9%4.0%
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Unemployment Rates 1990 -2023
4
6.5
2.9
4.0
11.3
3.0 3.2
4.5
9.2
12.1
9.0
3.8 4.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Contra Costa CASource: CA Employment Development Department
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Labor Contracts
5
Filled
Positions
2023
Filled
Positions
2024
Contract
End Date
AFSCME Local 512, Professional and Technical Employees 226 239 6/30/2026
AFSCME Local 2700, United Clerical, Technical and Specialized Employees 1,417 1,489 6/30/2026
California Nurses Association 815 816 9/30/2025
CCC Defenders Association 93 104 6/30/2026
CCC Deputy District Attorneys’ Association 91 100 6/30/2026
Deputy Sheriffs Association, Mgt Unit and Rank and File Unit 779 816 6/30/2027
Deputy Sheriffs Association, Probation Peace Officers Association 212 205 6/30/2027
District Attorney Investigator’s Association 15 19 6/30/2026
IAFF Local 1230 405 453 6/30/2027
Physicians and Dentists of Contra Costa 243 252 10/31/2025
Professional & Technical Engineers –Local 21, AFL-CIO 1,162 1,282 6/30/2026
Public Employees Union, Local One & FACS Site Supervisor Unit 489 497 6/30/2026
SEIU Local 1021, Rank and File and Service Line Supervisors Units 853 831 6/30/2026
Teamsters, Local 856 1,803 1,879 6/30/2026
United Chief Officers' Association 15 17 6/30/2027
Western Council of Engineers 23 21 6/30/2026
Management Classified & Exempt & Management Project 430 461 N/A
9,071 9,481
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Contra Costa County -Assessed Value
Fiscal Years 2000 -2024
6
$85B
$267B $271B
11.7%
-7.0%
-3.0%
-0.4%
8.9%
7.8%
4.0%
1.5%
-7%
-2%
3%
8%
13%
18%
23%
(100)
(50)
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
FY00-01 FY05-06 FY10-11 FY15-16 FY20-21Billions
Net Assessed Value Year on Year Change (%)Sources: CA BOE, Beacon Economics
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Property Tax Revenues -County
Fiscal Years 2006-2023
7
$293M
$263M
$456M
$493M
12.0%
-6.5%
8.1%
4.4%
8.2%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
-$250M
-$150M
-$50M
$50M
$150M
$250M
$350M
$450M
$550M
2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22
County Property Tax Revenues County
YOY %ΔSource: County Financial System
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Property Tax Revenues –Fire District
Fiscal Years 2006-2023
8
$293M
$263M
$493M
$90M
$79M
$162M
12.0%
-6.5%
8.2%
14.0%
-8.4%
12.0%
10.1%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
-$250M
-$150M
-$50M
$50M
$150M
$250M
$350M
$450M
$550M
2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22
County Property Tax Revenues Fire Protection District County
YOY %Δ
Fire
YOY %Δ
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
General Fund reserves
1.For FY 2022-23, total General Fund revenues were $2.11 billion, and the total
fund balance was $880.2 million, or 41.7% of total General Fund revenue
2.Of the $880.2 million:
a.$444.3 million was unassigned –21.0%of total General Fund Revenues
b.$435.9 million was assigned, committed, restricted or nonspendable
9
7.2%
9.4%
11.0%
13.2%
16.5%17.9%16.6%
20.1%20.5%21.2%20.0%21.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
FY11-12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19 FY19-20 FY20-21 FY21-22 FY22-23
Unassigned General Fund Reserves
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Pension funding
Pension funded ratio is
91.2%
County Net Pension
Liability as of 12/31/2022
was $1.05B, up from
$854.6 million the prior
year due to increased
salary COLA’s and lower
investment returns
compared to assumptions
CCCERA investment
earnings assumption is
6.75%
Final Pension Obligation
Bond payment was made
June, 2022
10
Actuarial
Valuation
Date
Total CCCERA
Net Liability Funded Ratio County
Net Liability
Fire
Protection
District
Net Liability
2009 $1,024,673 83.8%$727,578 $68,294
2010 1,312,215 80.3%918,919 104,750
2011 1,488,593 78.5%1,037,535 130,737
2012 2,279,059 70.6% 1,591,610 228,950
2013 1,823,681 76.4%1,260,363 180,209
2014 1,469,942 81.7%1,003,749 151,686
2015 1,311,823 84.5%879,610 154,708
2016 1,187,437 86.5%776,396 143,193
2017 1,059,356 88.5%689,426 131,765
2018 1,031,966 89.3%677,735 123,353
2019 947,054 90.6%607,938 132,554
2020 859,345 91.8%557,373 121,270
2021 854,561 92.4%588,842 147,987
2022 1,050,406 91.2%736,081 166,180
Contra Costa County Employees Retirement Association
Pension Funding Status (Thousands)
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
FY23-24 County mid-year budget status
11
Mid-Year
23-24
Mid-Year
22-23
Mid-Year
21-22
Mid-Year
20-21
Mid-Year
19-20
ALL FUNDS Budget Actual Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent
Expenditures $5,000,652,632 $2,035,853,084 41%40%38%44%41%
Revenues $4,852,245,991 $2,440,927,777 50%42%43%45%39%
GENERAL FUND Budget Actual Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent
Expenditures $2,317,559,830 $940,663,222 41%41%37%43%41%
Revenues $2,241,801,431 $909,630,143 41%49%45%46%37%
Wages & Benefits $1,183,247,803 $508,720,756 43%45%45%45%46%
Services & Supplies $881,701,773 $297,440,526 34%35%35%43%37%
Other Charges $361,996,454 $154,459,968 43%50%33%46%40%
Fixed Assets $50,556,930 $37,061,223 73%13%10%25%24%
Inter-departmental Charges ($174,943,130)($57,019,852)33%27%42%44%41%
Contingencies $15,000,000 $600
Total Expenses $2,317,559,830 $940,663,222 41%41%37%41%41%
Taxes $646,551,506 $378,066,419 58%71%61%62%64%
License, Permits, Franchises $12,188,015 $2,865,002 24%28%28%23%30%
Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties $23,867,498 $2,301,180 10%8%9%5%8%
Use of Money & Property $31,718,241 $19,697,141 62%107%31%42%29%
Federal/State Assistance $898,159,941 $354,265,079 39%51%44%50%28%
Charges for Current Services $185,413,445 $79,460,567 43%41%48%44%32%
Other Revenue $443,902,785 $72,974,755 16%19%20%23%27%
Total Revenues $2,241,801,431 $909,630,143 41%49%45%46%37%
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Measure X financials
12
Measure X adopted allocations through FY23-24
Budget
Reserve 20,000,000$
One-time 136,895,200$
FY22-23 78,150,000$
FY23-24 122,689,500$
Returned (895,965)$
356,838,735$
Revenue budget and projection through FY23-24
Budget Actuals/Projection Difference
FY20-21 24,078,616$ 27,659,018$ (3,580,402)$
FY21-22 104,000,000$ 117,721,524$ (13,721,524)$
FY22-23 107,000,000$ 122,416,463$ (15,416,463)$
FY23-24 118,169,856$ 118,272,961$ (103,105)$
Total 353,248,472$ 386,069,967$ (32,821,495)$
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Measure X financials
1.$40.1M actual revenue collected through December 2023
for the current fiscal year, and $307.8M collected lifetime
2.Remaining revenue requirement of $48.9M to fund the
$356.8M total allocated expenditures through FY23-24
3.Projected potential one-time surplus of $29M by fiscal year
end (actual value will be known in September)
4.FY24-25 Measure X sales tax revenue projected to grow 1.6%
to $120.2M
5.FY24-25 base budget totals $117.4M, with a proposed 2.4%
($2.8M) cost of living adjustment (COLA) for ongoing
allocations to balance to the projected revenues of $120.2M
13
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Recap of COVID -19 Major Funding Sources
14
Revenue Program Allocation
Emergency Rental Assistance Program (Closed)$234,924,258
Coronavirus Relief Fund (Closed)227,827,652
ARPA Fiscal Recovery Fund 224,058,903
FEMA Public Assistance Program 82,470,577
Total $769,281,390
Key Takeaways:
•Four revenue drivers impact vast majority the County’s cost recovery
•2 of 4 Programs complete; No audit findings from Federal/State agencies or
County Single Audits
•FEMA Public Assistance program reflects funds the County must claim for
reimbursement for General Fund expenditures
•All COVID-19 revenue sources are one-time only funds!
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Status of COVID -19 FEMA Claims
15
Contra Costa County
FEMA Project Applications
Estimates Updated as of 1/24/2024
Project #Submitted Projects Estimated Claim Obligated Received
FEMA Submission
Date
146165 Great Plates Delivered - 5/1/2020 to 6/10/2020 144,796$ 144,796$ 144,796$ 1/27/2021
166257 Great Plates Delivered - 6/11/2020 to 7/9/2020 276,467 276,467 276,467 1/28/2021
166323 Great Plated Delivered - 7/10/2020 to 8/9/2020 380,374 380,374 380,374 1/28/2021
166334 Great Plates Delivered - 8/10/2020 to 9/9/2020 384,174 384,174 384,174 1/28/2021
166919 Great Plates Delivered - 9/10/2020 to 10/9/2020 417,331 417,331 417,331 1/28/2021
178653 Great Plates Delivered - 10/10/2020 to 2/6/2021 2,006,732 2,006,732 2,006,732 5/20/2021
243280 Great Plates Delivered - 2/6/2021 to 7/9/2021 2,805,170 2,805,170 2,805,170 9/10/2021
240224 Materials - PPE - 3/07/2020 to 5/20/2022 1,240,517 1,240,517 1,240,517 12/21/2022
240222 Incremental Cleaning Costs - 4/1/2020 to 6/30/2021 10,197,540 10,197,540 10,197,540 7/7/2022
680872 Cleaning Supplies - 3/04/2020 to 6/07/2022 555,062 555,062 555,062 12/21/2022
550487 COVID Testing Costs - 2/27/2020 to 6/3/2021 15,814,082 15,814,082 0 6/29/2022
685744 Incremental Cleaning Costs - 7/1/2021 to 6/30/2022 3,649,683 0 0 12/21/2022
719096 Incremental Cleaning Costs - 7/1/2022 to 4/1/2023 (90% of actuals)1,295,515 0 0 7/31/2023
156484 Non-Congregate Shelter - 3/19/2020 to 6/30/2020 4,012,966 0 0 7/26/2021
186200 Non Congregate Shelter - 7/1/2020 to 1/1/2021 13,886,851 0 0 10/18/2021
240223 Non Congregate Shelter - 1/1/2021 to 3/31/2022 14,515,020 0 0 11/3/2022
687414 COVID Testing Costs - 7/1/2021 to 6/30/2022 4,914,058 0 0 12/28/2022
719093 COVID Testing Costs Mobile Med - 07/01/2022 - 03/31/2023 (90% of actuals)979,848 0 0 6/5/2023
731586 COVID Testing Costs - 7/1/2022 to 05/11/2023 (90% of actuals)686,296 0 0 10/30/2023
680774 Vaccinations - 12/01/2020 to 05/31/2021 637,756 0 0 12/30/2022
698619 County Emergency Operations Center (EOC) - 03/23/2020 to 07/1/2022 1,620,297 0 0 12/30/2022
720803 Category Z Mgmt Reimbursement - Ernst & Young Costs*2,000,000 0 0 9/25/2023
733307 COVID-19 Coordination & Response Efforts - 7/22/2022 - 5/11/2023 50,042 0 0 10/30/2023
TOTAL 82,470,577$ 34,222,245$ 18,408,163$
as % of Total Estimated Claims 100%41.5%22.3%
Total Projects 23 11 10
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Obligation and Payment
Timeline of COVID -19 FEMA Claims
16
Key Takeaways:
•FEMA reimbursements are slow to be obligated as predicted
•Little activity by FEMA in CY2022, but picked up in 2023
•More complex claims take more time to obligate
•Time to receive payment after obligation has decreased since 2021
Contra Costa County
FEMA Project Applications
Estimates Updated as of 1/24/2024
Project #Submitted Projects Estimated Claim
FEMA Submission
Date
Obligation
Date Months
Payment
Date Months
146165 Great Plates Delivered - 5/1/2020 to 6/10/2020 144,796$ 1/27/2021 3/25/2021 1.9 9/3/2021 5.4
166257 Great Plates Delivered - 6/11/2020 to 7/9/2020 276,467 1/28/2021 6/23/2021 4.9 8/25/2021 2.1
166323 Great Plated Delivered - 7/10/2020 to 8/9/2020 380,374 1/28/2021 8/25/2021 7.0 11/10/2021 2.6
166334 Great Plates Delivered - 8/10/2020 to 9/9/2020 384,174 1/28/2021 5/6/2021 3.3 9/3/2021 4.0
166919 Great Plates Delivered - 9/10/2020 to 10/9/2020 417,331 1/28/2021 5/6/2021 3.3 9/3/2021 4.0
178653 Great Plates Delivered - 10/10/2020 to 2/6/2021 2,006,732 5/20/2021 7/13/2021 1.8 9/3/2021 1.7
243280 Great Plates Delivered - 2/6/2021 to 7/9/2021 2,805,170 9/10/2021 2/25/2022 5.6 3/23/2022 0.9
240224 Materials - PPE - 3/07/2020 to 5/20/2022 1,240,517 12/21/2022 2/10/2023 1.7 4/24/2023 2.4
240222 Incremental Cleaning Costs - 4/1/2020 to 6/30/2021 10,197,540 7/7/2022 6/26/2023 11.8 8/28/2023 2.1
680872 Cleaning Supplies - 3/04/2020 to 6/07/2022 555,062 12/21/2022 10/16/2023 10.0 11/30/2023 1.5
550487 COVID Testing Costs - 2/27/2020 to 6/3/2021 15,814,082 6/29/2022 11/7/2023 16.5
Obligation Metrics Payment Metrics
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Review Status
Timeline of Outstanding COVID -19 FEMA Claims
17
Key Takeaways:
•Non-Congregate Shelter (NCS) claims outstanding had been placed on hold statewide
pending FEMA Region IX policy review (completed on October 16, 2023)
•Remaining non-NCS claims outstanding for approximately 1 year or less
•Two claims are in “Final FEMA Review” status and should be obligated this quarter
Contra Costa County
FEMA Project Applications
Estimates Updated as of 1/24/2024
Submitted Projects Estimated Claim
FEMA
Submission
Date Today Months Years
Incremental Cleaning Costs - 7/1/2021 to 6/30/2022 3,649,683 12/21/2022 1/24/2024 13.3 1.1
Incremental Cleaning Costs - 7/1/2022 to 4/1/2023 (90% of actuals)1,295,515 7/31/2023 1/24/2024 5.9 0.5
Non-Congregate Shelter - 3/19/2020 to 6/30/2020 4,012,966 7/26/2021 1/24/2024 30.4 2.5
Non Congregate Shelter - 7/1/2020 to 1/1/2021 13,886,851 10/18/2021 1/24/2024 27.6 2.3
Non Congregate Shelter - 1/1/2021 to 3/31/2022 14,515,020 11/3/2022 1/24/2024 14.9 1.2
COVID Testing Costs - 7/1/2021 to 6/30/2022 4,914,058 12/28/2022 1/24/2024 13.1 1.1
COVID Testing Costs Mobile Med - 07/01/2022 - 03/31/2023 (90% of actuals)979,848 6/5/2023 1/24/2024 7.8 0.6
COVID Testing Costs - 7/1/2022 to 05/11/2023 (90% of actuals)686,296 10/30/2023 1/24/2024 2.9 0.2
Vaccinations - 12/01/2020 to 05/31/2021 637,756 12/30/2022 1/24/2024 13.0 1.1
County Emergency Operations Center (EOC) - 03/23/2020 to 07/1/2022 1,620,297 12/30/2022 1/24/2024 13.0 1.1
Category Z Mgmt Reimbursement - Ernst & Young Costs*2,000,000 9/25/2023 1/24/2024 4.0 0.3
COVID-19 Coordination & Response Efforts - 7/22/2022 - 5/11/2023 50,042 10/30/2023 1/24/2024 2.9 0.2
TOTAL 82,470,577$
Time from Submission
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
FEMA Region IX Policy Changes -NCS
1.Bad News:
•Retroactively caps the number of nights that
NCS clients are eligible to stay at motel/hotel
20 on June 11, 2022 and beyond
•Presumes that vacant rooms are not eligible for
reimbursement with some “…exceptions…for
reasonable pre-positioning of resources…on a
case-by-case basis”
2. Good News:
•FEMA dropped the issue of redefining
“asymptomatic” to require a COVID-19
diagnosis
•Potential financial exposure is significantly
reduced
18
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Updated Impacts & Course of Action
1.Potential exposure to NCS claims ($32 million claimed) significantly reduced
from up to $29 million to $6 -$9 million. Below is a breakdown of the current
exposure:
2.Staff continues to collaborate with statewide partners and position the County for
appeal should that be necessary. The following specific actions have been taken:
a.Participate in bi-weekly collaboration call with CalOES Recovery Division and local jurisdictions
across the state on NCS impacts and strategy for responding to FEMA Region IX
b.Board approved a contract with Baker Donelson law firm to assist with strategy and approach to
potential FEMA appeals. Baker Donelson has a practice area to focus specifically on disputes
with the FEMA Public Assistance program (Stafford Act)
19
Project Number Timeframe Percentage of Rooms
Unoccupied
Exposure Amount
Based on Unoccupied %
Number of Rooms
Over 20 Days3
Percentage
of Rooms over
20 Days
Exposure Amount
Based on Rooms
over 20 Days
Total Exposure4
Project 1: 156484 3/19/2020 - 6/30/2020 37%1,476,370.20$ N/A N/A -$ 1,476,370.20$
Project 2: 186200 7/1/2020 - 12/31/2020 7%914,193.38$ N/A N/A -$ 914,193.38$
Project 3: 240223 1/1/2021 - 3/31/2022 3%477,544.14$ 37,650 45%6,316,863.95$ 6,794,408.09$
9,184,971.67$
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Status of ARPA CSLFRF Program
1.As of September 30, 2023, the County has received the entire allocation of $224
million and spent $174.7 million (78%)
2.By the end of FY 2023/24, we continue to anticipate a remainder of $37.5 million
available for “obligation” by the Board. Below is a reconciliation of actual and
anticipated expenditures from inception to June 30, 2024:
20
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Proposed Treasury Policy Change –“Obligation”
1.On November 20, 2023, the U.S. Treasury
published an Interim Final Rule (IFR) in the
Federal register with proposed retroactive
amendments to the definition of “Obligation”
as it relates to the ARPA CSLFRF program.
Comments were due on December 20, 2023
for the final rule.
2.Currently, CSLFRF jurisdictions must “obligate”
all funds December 31, 2024 and spend all
funds by December 31, 2026.
3.The proposals in the IFR appear to restrict the
ability of local governments to:
a.Use CSLFRF funds for staffing during the spend
period (with the exception of reimbursement for
grant administration)
b.Reallocate obligated funds to different functions
during the “spend period”
21
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
What are we doing about it?
1.National professional organizations
and the County sent a joint comment
letter to Treasury citing operational
impacts of the new restrictive language,
including…
a.Inability to continue directing some
funding for staff COVID-19 response if
needed.
b.Inability to redirect obligated funds during
the “spend period” should the Board desire
to reprioritize allocations.
2.Senators Padilla (D-CA) and Cornyn (R-
TX) working on bi-partisan legislation to
address challenges in spending ARPA
funding, including…
a.Extending the ARPA obligation deadline to
December 31, 2025.
b.Defining “obligation” in statute rather than
through Treasury rulemaking.
22
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Reasons for continuing concern
1.Budgeted expenditures are growing faster than revenues
a.Negotiated employee wage increases of 5% or more over multiple years, leading to a currently
projected FY24-25 general fund cost increase of $81M
b.Prison Law Office Settlement
i.FY24-25 increased staffing costs ~$16M
ii.Detention ADA capital improvements
c.General Liability insurance premiums increasing 26% to $17M
d.Workers’ Compensation program charges increasing 26% to $43M
e.Higher interest rates are reducing real estate transactions and slowing associated property tax
revenue growth to a projected 1.5%
f.Sales tax growth projected to slow to 1.5% for the year
2.State budget deficit and unknown local budget impacts
3.FEMA recoveries
4.Needed capital investments for service improvements and aging facilities
5.Obsolete technology
a.Replace mainframe systems for Assessor’s Office and Treasurer / Tax Collector
b.Significant needs countywide for new hardware and cybersecurity
23
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
FY24-25 Budget Hearings
1.Hearing dates
1.Recommended Budget –April 23, 2024
2.Budget Adoption –May 21, 2024
2.Format
1.County Administrator –Budget overview
2.Department Presentations
3.Public Comment
4.Board Discussion / Action
24
Board of Supervisors –2024 Retreat
Budget Development -Recommendations
1.ACCEPT report on Budget and Key Issues for FY24-25 and beyond;
2.Measure X –PROVIDE DIRECTION on the
a.Proposed cost of living adjustment (COLA) of 2.4% to ongoing allocations for FY24 -25
b.Budgeting process for the potential Measure X year end revenue surplus of ~$29M
3.DIRECT the County Administrator to provide an update on the status of
ARPA CSLFRF rulemaking and COVID-19 FEMA Public Assistance claims
during the FY24-25 Budget Hearings, including scenarios for allocation of
funds to maximize cost recovery.
25
1025 ESCOBAR STREET
MARTINEZ, CA 94553CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
Legislation Details (With Text)
File #: Version:124-0273 Name:
Status:Type:Discussion Item Agenda Ready
File created:In control:1/23/2024 BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
On agenda:Final action:1/30/2024
Title:ACCEPT report on Capital Projects. (Eric Angstadt, Chief Assistant County Administrator)
Attachments:1. Capital Projects Updates Presentation
Action ByDate Action ResultVer.Tally
To:Board of Supervisors
From:Monica Nino, County Administrator
Report Title:Capital Projects Report
☒Recommendation of the County Administrator ☐ Recommendation of Board Committee
RECOMMENDATIONS:
ACCEPT report on Capital Projects.
FISCAL IMPACT:
There is no fiscal impact. The report is for information only.
BACKGROUND:
See attached report.
CONSEQUENCE OF NEGATIVE ACTION:
N/A
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Printed on 2/28/2024Page 1 of 2
powered by Legistar™
File #:24-0273,Version:1
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Printed on 2/28/2024Page 2 of 2
powered by Legistar™
Board of Supervisors
Annual Retreat 2024
January 30, 2024 1
Agenda
•Major Projects continuing 2024
•ADR Project –Completion June, 2024
•WRTH Project –Completion early 2025
•CFMP first 5 year Implementation Plan
•Central Storage Facility
•East County Facilities
•Pittsburg-Los Medanos Community Center
•Brentwood Service Hub
2
Major Projects Update
3
Admin Demo and Redevelopment (ADR)
•Project completion June 2024
Major Projects Update
4
West County Reentry, Treatment and Housing (WRTH)
•Project underway
•Project completion expected First Quarter, 2025
Capital Facilities Master Plan
First 5-year implementation
Central Storage Facility
3 options
Original CFMP 25,ooo square feet Est $20-22.5 million
Original plus Elections 35,000 square feet Est $28-31.5 million
Identified need + Elections 50,000 square feet Est $40-45 million
5
Capital Facilities Master Plan
First 5-year implementation
Central Storage Facility location
6
Capital Facilities Master Plan
First 5-year implementation
Central Storage Facility renderings
7
Capital Facilities Master Plan
First 5-year implementation
East County Facilities
Pittsburg-Los Medanos Community Center
Brentwood Service Hub
Antioch Delta Fair Service refresh
8
Capital Facilities Master Plan
First 5-year implementation
East County Facilities locations
9
Capital Facilities Master Plan
First 5-year implementation
Pittsburg-Los Medanos Community Center proposed location
10
Capital Facilities Master Plan
First 5-year implementation
Pittsburg Community Center
15-20,000 square foot youth center
5-6,000 behavioral/mental health counseling center
Estimated cost $16-26 million
11
Capital Facilities Master Plan
First 5-year implementation
Pittsburg-Los Medanos Community Center rendering
12
Capital Facilities Master Plan
First 5-year implementation
Brentwood Service Hub location
13
Capital Facilities Master Plan
First 5-year implementation
Brentwood Service Hub –Estimated Cost $75 million
60-70,000 square foot service delivery hub
Employment and Human Services
Probation
Clerk-Recorder
Public Defender
Child Support Services
Citizen Access Center
14
Capital Facilities Master Plan
First 5-year implementation
Next Steps
Central Storage Facility –Design-Build procurement process
Board action by end of 2024 on construction contract
Pittsburg-Los Medanos Community Center -Design-Build procurement process
Board action by end of 2024 on construction contract
East County Service Hub -Design-Build procurement process
Board action by June, 2025 on construction contract
15
Questions
16
1025 ESCOBAR STREET
MARTINEZ, CA 94553CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
Legislation Details (With Text)
File #: Version:124-0274 Name:
Status:Type:Discussion Item Agenda Ready
File created:In control:1/23/2024 BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
On agenda:Final action:1/30/2024
Title:RECEIVE presentation from the Contra Costa Budget Justice Coalition. (Sarah Gurdian, Program
Director, Budget Justice Coalition and Ryan Fukumori, Policy Link Senior Associate)
Attachments:1. Budget Justice Coalition Presentation, 2. Bay Area Equity Atlas Presentation, 3. Correspondence
Received.pdf
Action ByDate Action ResultVer.Tally
To:Board of Supervisors
From:Monica Nino, County Administrator
Report Title:Budget Justice Coalition Presentations
☐Recommendation of the County Administrator ☐ Recommendation of Board Committee
RECOMMENDATIONS:
RECEIVE presentations from the Contra Costa Budget Justice Coalition.
FISCAL IMPACT:
This presentations are for informational purposes only. No fiscal impact.
BACKGROUND:
Attached are the presentations.
CONSEQUENCE OF NEGATIVE ACTION:
N/A
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Printed on 2/28/2024Page 1 of 2
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File #:24-0274,Version:1
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Printed on 2/28/2024Page 2 of 2
powered by Legistar™
An
Equitable Budget
for Contra Costa
01
January 30th,
2024
02
Commitment To
Equity
Analysis of Budget Cycle 2022-
2023
Equity Campaign
The Contra Costa Budget Justice Coalition focused on two
elements of the budget process within six key departments
•Analyzed current equity measures and metrics that
reflect both internally and externally.
•Explored each department’s current process for
engaging with community members who are impacted
by the department’s services, and how their input
influences budgetary priorities.
03
Documented
internal and
external
budget
development
processes
Identified
gaps
Explored
equitable
budget
models &
engagement
tools
04
Key Findings
Process & Challenges
05
•During meetings with each County
Department we gained knowledge on
oBudget timelines
o key stakeholders
o Overall engagement with
community
o Current process for soliciting input
•Gaps Identified:
o Many departments lack a robust
community engagement process
o Limited capacity to track and analyze
equity metrics throughout programs
and overall departmental structure
o Resident or advisory body input may
or may not influence programmatic
priorities and budgetary decisions
05
Recommendation:
Equity Budget Tools
•Santa Clara County’s budget equity model promotes
equitable access, opportunity, and inclusion of
community members in County operations, policies,
and budget decisions. This is done through a set of
evaluation questions that can help identify and
strengthen equity metrics at the departmental level.
•County of San Diego Budget Equity Assessment Tool is
designed to help reduce disparities and advance equitable
outcomes for all by critically analyzing budget decisions
and processes to implement transformative and
sustainable change.
Equity &
Accountability
06
Recommendation:
Community Engagement Tool
The Spectrum of Community Engagement to Ownership : This framework charts a
pathway to strengthen and transform our local democracies. Thriving, diverse, equitable
communities are possible through deep participation, particularly by communities
commonly excluded from democratic voice & power.
07
Equity Goals & Next Steps
•Continue to engage with key department leaders and staff to implement
short term equity goals that can impact this year’s budget process.
•Develop a customizable version of a budget equity model
•Strengthen current community engagement processes that will help
departments understand and prioritize community needs
•Work collaboratively with the County Administrator to ensure that we
continue to advance the Board’s equity initiative in the budget process
•Partner with the new Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice to explore
meaningful models that drive toward a more inclusive, diverse, equitable
and accessible budget process.
08
Acknowledgements
We'd like to thank the Board for putting their shared commitment
to equity into action, and for providing time and space for the
Budget Justice Coalition and the Bay Area Equity Atlas to present
at today's budget retreat. Lastly, for empowering the Office of
Racial Equity and Social Justice to work with county departments
and in the community to identify our shared strengths and lift up
solutions that will elevate us all.
09SARA GURDIAN
Thank you.
January 30, 2024
Ryan Fukumori, PhD, Senior Associate, PolicyLink
Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors
Budget Retreat
Two trends:
●There is an enduring divide in wealth between different parts of the county.
●The Covid-19 pandemic was a wealth-stripping event for many residents countywide.
Between 2019-22, passive income earners fell in number…
Source: Bay Area Equity Atlas analysis of American Community Survey data, via data.census.gov.
Two trends:
●There is an enduring divide in wealth between different parts of the county.
●The Covid-19 pandemic was a wealth-stripping event for many residents countywide.
…as reliance on public assistance rose across the county.
Source: Bay Area Equity Atlas analysis of American Community Survey data, via data.census.gov.
A larger share of locals are struggling, even with an exodus of low-income residents.
●The county has a growing net loss of residents to other parts of the state & nation.
●“Departers” are far more likely to be economically distressed than “newcomers.”
Source: Bay Area Equity Atlas analysis of American Community Survey data, via IPUMS USA.
Year Departed CCC in
past 12 months
Moved to CCC in
past 12 months
Net gain from
residents moving
in past 12 months
Percent of residents w/ household income
below 200% of federal poverty limits
“Departers”“Newcomers”
2013 38,419 50,807 +12,388 22%8%
2016 55,978 64,721 +8,743 15%6%
2019 57,588 55,892 -1,696 13%4%
2022 75,597 55,552 -20,045 17%8%
Does not include moves between Contra Costa County and other parts of the world, as emigration data is not available.
Reliable, sustainable data infrastructures are a cornerstone of
equitable governance.
●You can’t change what you can’t measure!
●Integrating population-and market-level data with:
○Program-level data for county agencies
■Results-based planning & performance measures
■Track impact & lift up effective practices
○Community engagement & qualitative data
■Pursue alignment between resident needs & county priorities
■Less about scientific samples than commitment to engaging residents
Effectively addressing urgent disparities requires commitment
to the long haul of building equity.
●Support the groundwork that’s already been done (ORESJ, CAO, etc.) in
countywide systems change –impact requires investment
○Technical skill-building requires culture change
●Participatory planning/budgeting does not equal anarchy!
○See examples of: Vallejo, Seattle, Chicago, Phoenix, many more
●Please consider the Bay Area Equity Atlas a living resource for county
agencies & officials
http://bayareaequityatlas.org
ryan@policylink.org
1025 ESCOBAR STREET
MARTINEZ, CA 94553CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
Legislation Details (With Text)
File #: Version:124-0275 Name:
Status:Type:Discussion Item Agenda Ready
File created:In control:1/23/2024 BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
On agenda:Final action:1/30/2024
Title:RECEIVE update and PROVIDE DIRECTION on the Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice's 2024
priorities, including special projects, second phase hiring strategy and timeline, and the development
of the Lived Experience Advisory Board (Kendra Carr and Peter Kim, Co-Directors)
Attachments:1. ORESJ Presentation
Action ByDate Action ResultVer.Tally
To:Board of Supervisors
From:Equity Committee
Report Title:Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice 2024 Priorities
☐Recommendation of the County Administrator ☒ Recommendation of Board Committee
RECOMMENDATIONS:
ACCEPT the update and PROVIDE feedback on the 2024 priorities, hiring strategy and timeline, proposal for
the structure of the Lived Experience Advisory Board, and budget summary for the Office of Racial Equity and
Social Justice.
FISCAL IMPACT:
There is no fiscal impact from receiving the report.
BACKGROUND:
At the November 13, 2023 Equity Committee meeting, staff to the committee were directed to provide an
update on the hiring strategy and timeline for the next four staff members to join the Office of Racial Equity
and Social Justice (ORESJ). Staff were also directed to provide an update on the establishment of the Lived
Experience Advisory Board (LEAB). Staff provided updates at the December 18, 2023 and January 22, 2024
Equity Committee meetings, and were directed to provide those updates at the Board of Supervisors Retreat.
CONSEQUENCE OF NEGATIVE ACTION:
The Board of Supervisors would not receive the latest updates on the Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice.
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Printed on 2/28/2024Page 1 of 2
powered by Legistar™
File #:24-0275,Version:1
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY Printed on 2/28/2024Page 2 of 2
powered by Legistar™
Office of Racial Equity
and Social Justice
Dr. Kendra Carr, Co-Director
Peter Kim, Co-Director
Contra Costa County
2024 Board Retreat
January 30, 2024
Vision and Purpose
Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice's vision is for all Contra
Costa County residents to experience safety, peace, connection, economic wellbeing, health, liberation, freedom to be their full selves.
We aim to:
•Increase education, resources, and policies to address structural racism and its impact on community residents
•Assess, support, and coordinate the County’s equity work for those marginalized due to their race, ethnicity, gender identity, sexual orientation, immigration status, preferred
language, physical or mental abilities, experiences of trauma and violence.
Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice - FY24-25 Priorities (Board Retreat, 1.30.24)2
Land and Labor Acknowledgement
3Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice - FY24-25 Priorities (Board Retreat, 1.30.24)
Community
Needs &
Priorities
Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice - FY24-25 Priorities (Board Retreat, 1.30.24)4
System harms
Violence experienced
Community engagement
Advocacy
Priority Projects (Community focus)
•Landscape analysis of racial inequities experienced by County residents
•Feasibility study for African American Holistic Wellness and Resources Hub*
•Administration of $1 million Measure X for African American holistic wellness
resources*
•Organizational capacity building and technical assistance grants for emerging
grassroots organizations
•Community Healing mini-grants
•Assess and increase participation of community members with lived experience
on advisory boards and commissions
*Not in ORESJ Budget presently 5Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice - FY24-25 Priorities (Board Retreat, 1.30.24)
Priority Projects (System focus)
•Inventory of racial equity efforts across County departments
•Support development of department Budget Equity statements and
Racial Equity Action plans
•Adopt and implement countywide Language Equity Access plan
•Assess and strengthen Racial Equity (Implicit Bias) trainings for County
officials, departments,and contractors
6Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice - FY24-25 Priorities (Board Retreat, 1.30.24)
Office Operations & Infrastructure
Operational costs for central office space
•technology, furniture, overhead, interdepartmental fees
Data infrastructure, database, dashboard
•develop processes and infrastructure for data collection, analysis,
storage and dissemination
•includes a formal mechanism to receive community concerns
and complaints re: racial equity and social justice
Communications strategy and community engagement
•develop robust communications and engagement strategy
•conduct community outreach and engagement activities/events
7Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice - FY24-25 Priorities (Board Retreat, 1.30.24)
Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice - FY24-25 Priorities (Board Retreat, 1.30.24)8
9Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice - FY24-25 Priorities (Board Retreat, 1.30.24)
Lived
Experience
Advisory
Board
(LEAB)
Categories
of Harm and
Exposure to
Violence
10Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice - FY24-25 Priorities (Board Retreat, 1.30.24)
Note: figures represent percentage of survey
respondents (n=2655) who reported having
experienced that category of violence
*(from Recommendations for Contra Costa
County Office of Racial Equity and Social
Justice Report, October 2022)
38.7%
33.7%
28.4%
28.1%
27.7%
22.9%
21.7%
21.7%19.0%
18.2%
Budget Summary
•FY 23-24 ORESJ budget: $1,836,222 (includes
$576,222 FY 22-23 carry-forward)
•FY 24-25 ORESJ budget: $1,290,240 (100%
Measure X, includes COLA increase)
•Staffing of 6 FTEs and ongoing operational
costs covered by annual baseline budget
•Carry-forward of one -time funds will be used
to fund priority projects & office
infrastructure
Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice - FY24-25 Priorities (Board Retreat, 1.30.24)11
Expenditures FY 23-24 FY 24-25
Priority Projects (one-
time)$400,000 $380,000
Office Infrastructure (one-
time)$250,000 $50,000
Staffing $361,364 $1,208,366
Office Operations (on-
going)$50,000 $80,000
Total Expenditures $1,061,364 $1,718,366
ORESJ Budget $1,836,222 $1,290,240
Questions and Feedback?
Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice - FY24-25 Priorities (Board Retreat, 1.30.24)12
Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice - FY24-25 Priorities (Board Retreat, 1.30.24)13
Thank you!
Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice
1025 Escobar Street, Room 160
Martinez, CA 94553
Kendra Carr, Co-Director
•kendra.carr@oresj.cccounty.us
•(925) 655-2026 office
•(925) 387-9080 mobile
Peter Kim, Co-Director
•peter.kim@oresj.cccounty.us
•(925) 655-2025 office
•(925) 387-9266 mobile