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HomeMy WebLinkAboutMINUTES - 01242023 - BOS Min PktCALENDAR FOR THE BOARD OF SUPERVISORS CONTRA COSTA COUNTY AND FOR SPECIAL DISTRICTS, AGENCIES, AND AUTHORITIES GOVERNED BY THE BOARD BOARD CHAMBERS, ADMINISTRATION BUILDING, 1025 ESCOBAR STREET MARTINEZ, CALIFORNIA 94553-1229 JOHN GIOIA, Chair 1ST DISTRICT FEDERAL D. GLOVER, VICE CHAIR, 5TH DISTRICT CANDACE ANDERSEN, 2ND DISTRICT DIANE BURGIS, 3RD DISTRICT KEN CARLSON, 4TH DISTRICT MONICA NINO, CLERK OF THE BOARD AND COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR, (925) 655-2075 PERSONS WHO WISH TO ADDRESS THE BOARD DURING PUBLIC COMMENT OR WITH RESPECT TO AN ITEM THAT IS ON THE AGENDA, MAY BE LIMITED TO TWO (2) MINUTES. A LUNCH BREAK MAY BE CALLED AT THE DISCRETION OF THE BOARD CHAIR. The Board meeting will be accessible in-person, via television, and via live-streaming to all members of the public. Board meetings are televised live on Comcast Cable 27, ATT/U-Verse Channel 99, and WAVE Channel 32, and can be seen live online at www.contracosta.ca.gov. Persons who wish to address the board during public comment or with respect to an item on the agenda may comment in person or may call in during the meeting by dialing 888-278-0254 followed by the access code 843298#. A caller should indicate they wish to speak on an agenda item, by pushing "#2" on their phone. Access via Zoom is also available using the following link: https://cccounty-us.zoom.us/j/87344719204. Those participating via Zoom should indicate they wish to speak on an agenda item by using the “raise your hand” feature in the Zoom app. To provide contact information, please contact Clerk of the Board at clerkoftheboard@cob.cccounty.us or call 925-655-2000. Meetings of the Board are closed-captioned in real time. Public comment generally will be limited to two minutes. Your patience is appreciated. A Spanish language interpreter is available to assist Spanish-speaking callers. A lunch break or closed session may be called at the discretion of the Board Chair. Staff reports related to open session items on the agenda are also accessible online at www.contracosta.ca.gov. ANNOTATED AGENDA & MINUTES January 24, 2023            8:30 A.M. Breakfast and coffee. 9:00 A.M. Convene and call to order, and opening ceremonies. (Chair, John Gioia) Present: District I Supervisor John Gioia; District II Supervisor Candace Andersen; District III Supervisor Diane Burgis; District IV Supervisor Ken Carlson; District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover Staff Present:Monica Nino, County Administrator Inspirational Thought: "A goal without a plan is just a wish." ~Antoine de Saint-Exupery, French writer, poet, journalist and pioneering aviator.   D.1 ACCEPT report "Navigating the Stimulus Hangover; Focus on Contra Costa County" prepared by Beacon Economics. (Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Beacon Economics)       Board voted 5-0 to accept updated slide presentation. Public Comments: Mariana, Roxanne, Caller 6770    AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor Diane Burgis, District IV Supervisor Ken Carlson, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover D.2 ACCEPT report on budget and key issues for FY23-24 and beyond. (Monica Nino, County Administrator, Adam Nguyen, County Finance Director, and Tim Ewell, Chief Assistant County Administrator) and RECEIVE presentation from the Contra Costa Budget Justice Coalition. (Sarah Gurdian, Program Director, Budget Justice Coalition and Ryan Fukumori, Policy Link Senior Associate)       Public comments: John, Mariana, Roxanne, Dan, Caller 6770, Jan, Liz, Rachel, Ruth.    AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor Diane Burgis, District IV Supervisor Ken Carlson, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover D.3 ACCEPT report on Capital Projects. (Eric Angstadt, Chief Assistant County Administrator)       No comments.    AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor Diane Burgis, District IV Supervisor Ken Carlson, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover 12:00 P.M. Break for lunch   Closed Session Agenda Closed Session Agenda A. CONFERENCE WITH LABOR NEGOTIATORS (Gov. Code § 54957.6) 1. Agency Negotiators: Monica Nino. Employee Organizations: Public Employees Union, Local 1; AFSCME Locals 512 and 2700; California Nurses Assn.; SEIU Locals 1021 and 2015; District Attorney Investigators’ Assn.; Deputy Sheriffs Assn.; United Prof. Firefighters I.A.F.F., Local 1230; Physicians’ & Dentists’ Org. of Contra Costa; Western Council of Engineers; United Chief Officers Assn.; Contra Costa County Defenders Assn.; Contra Costa County Deputy District Attorneys’ Assn.; Prof. & Tech. Engineers IFPTE, Local 21; and Teamsters Local 856. 2. Agency Negotiators: Monica Nino. Unrepresented Employees: All unrepresented employees. B. PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT (Gov. Code, § 54957) Title: Veterans Services Officer   1:00 P.M. Resume Open Session   Public Comment (2 minutes)    Public comments: Caller 6770   D.4 ACCEPT report from the Health Services Department. (Anna Roth, Health Services Director)       Public comment: Caller 6770    AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor Diane Burgis, District IV Supervisor Ken Carlson, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover D.5 CONSIDER potential updates to Board Operating Procedures and Communications and provide direction to staff. (Chair, John Gioia)       Public comments: John, Caller 6770.    AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor Diane Burgis, District IV Supervisor Ken Carlson, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover Wrap-up and closing comments (Chair, John Gioia)   ADJOURN   GENERAL INFORMATION The Board meets in all its capacities pursuant to Ordinance Code Section 24-2.402, including as the Housing Authority and the Successor Agency to the Redevelopment Agency. Persons who wish to address the Board should complete the form provided for that purpose and furnish a copy of any written statement to the Clerk. Any disclosable public records related to an open session item on a regular meeting agenda and distributed by the Clerk of the Board to a majority of the members of the Board of Supervisors less than 96 hours prior to that meeting are available for public inspection at 1025 Escobar Street, First Floor, Martinez, CA 94553, during normal business hours. All matters listed under CONSENT ITEMS are considered by the Board to be routine and will be enacted by one motion. There will be no separate discussion of these items unless requested by a member of the Board before the Board votes on the motion to adopt. Persons who wish to speak on matters set for PUBLIC HEARINGS will be heard when the Chair calls for comments from those persons who are in support thereof or in opposition thereto. After persons have spoken, the hearing is closed and the matter is subject to discussion and action by the Board. Comments on matters listed on the agenda or otherwise within the purview of the Board of Supervisors can be submitted to the office of the Clerk of the Board via mail: Board of Supervisors, 1025 Escobar Street, First Floor, Martinez, CA 94553 or to clerkoftheboard@cob.cccounty.us. The County will provide reasonable accommodations for persons with disabilities planning to attend Board meetings who contact the Clerk of the Board at least 24 hours before the meeting, at (925) 655-2000. Anyone desiring to submit an inspirational thought nomination for inclusion on the Board Agenda may contact the Office of the County Administrator or Office of the Clerk of the Board, 1025 Escobar Street, Martinez, California. Subscribe to receive to the weekly Board Agenda by calling the Office of the Clerk of the Board, (925) 655-2000 or using the County's on line subscription feature at the County’s Internet Web Page, where agendas and supporting information may also be viewed: www.contracosta.ca.gov DISCLOSURE OF CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS Pursuant to Government Code section 84308, members of the Board of Supervisors are disqualified and not able to participate in any agenda item involving contracts (other than competitively bid, labor, or personal employment contracts), franchises, discretionary land use permits and other entitlements if the Board member received, since January 1, 2023, more than $250 in campaign contributions from the applicant or contractor, an agent of the applicant or contractor, or any financially interested participant who actively supports or opposes the County’s decision on the agenda item. Members of the Board of Supervisors who have received, and applicants, contractors or their agents who have made, campaign contributions totaling more than $250 to a Board member since January 1, 2023, are required to disclose that fact for the official record of the subject proceeding. Disclosures must include the amount of the campaign contribution and identify the recipient Board member, and may be made either in writing to the Clerk of the Board of Supervisors before the subject hearing or by verbal disclosure at the time of the hearing. STANDING COMMITTEES The Airport Committee (Supervisors Karen Mitchoff and Diane Burgis) meets quarterly on the second Wednesday of the month at 11:00 a.m. at the Director of Airports Office, 550 Sally Ride Drive, Concord. The Family and Human Services Committee (Supervisors John Gioia and Candace Andersen) meets on the fourth Monday of the month at 9:00 a.m. in Room 110, County Administration Building, 1025 Escobar Street, Martinez. The Finance Committee (Supervisors John Gioia and Karen Mitchoff) meets on the first Monday of the month at 9:00 a.m. in Room 110, County Administration Building, 1025 Escobar Street, Martinez. The Hiring Outreach Oversight Committee (Supervisors Federal D. Glover and John Gioia) meets quarterly on the first Monday of the month at 10:30 a.m.. in Room 110, County Administration Building, 1025 Escobar Street, Martinez. The Internal Operations Committee (Supervisors Candace Andersen and Diane Burgis) meets on the second Monday of the month at 10:30 a.m. in Room 110, County Administration Building, 1025 Escobar Street, Martinez. The Legislation Committee (Supervisors Karen Mitchoff and Diane Burgis) meets on the second Monday of the month at 1:00 p.m. in Room 110, County Administration Building, 1025 Street, Martinez. The Public Protection Committee (Supervisors Andersen and Federal D. Glover) meets on the fourth Monday of the month at 10:30 a.m. in Room 110, County Administration Building, 1025 Escobar Street, Martinez. The Sustainability Committee (Supervisors Federal D. Glover and John Gioia) meets on the fourth Monday of every other month at 1:00 p.m. in Room 110, County Administration Building, 1025 Escobar Street, Martinez. The Transportation, Water & Infrastructure Committee (Supervisors Candace Andersen and Karen Mitchoff) meets on the second Monday of the month at 9:00 a.m. in Room 110, County Administration Building, 1025 Escobar Street, Martinez. AGENDA DEADLINE: Thursday, 12 noon, 12 days before the Tuesday Board meetings. Glossary of Acronyms, Abbreviations, and other Terms (in alphabetical order): Contra Costa County has a policy of making limited use of acronyms, abbreviations, and industry-specific language in its Board of Supervisors meetings and written materials. Following is a list of commonly used language that may appear in oral presentations and written materials associated with Board meetings: AB Assembly Bill ABAG Association of Bay Area Governments ACA Assembly Constitutional Amendment ADA Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 AFSCME American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees AICP American Institute of Certified Planners AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ALUC Airport Land Use Commission AOD Alcohol and Other Drugs ARRA American Recovery & Reinvestment Act of 2009 BAAQMD Bay Area Air Quality Management District BART Bay Area Rapid Transit District BayRICS Bay Area Regional Interoperable Communications System BCDC Bay Conservation & Development Commission BGO Better Government Ordinance BOS Board of Supervisors CALTRANS California Department of Transportation CalWIN California Works Information Network CalWORKS California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids CAER Community Awareness Emergency Response CAO County Administrative Officer or Office CCCPFD (ConFire) Contra Costa County Fire Protection District CCHP Contra Costa Health Plan CCTA Contra Costa Transportation Authority CCRMC Contra Costa Regional Medical Center CCWD Contra Costa Water District CDBG Community Development Block Grant CFDA Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance CEQA California Environmental Quality Act CIO Chief Information Officer COLA Cost of living adjustment ConFire (CCCFPD) Contra Costa County Fire Protection District CPA Certified Public Accountant CPI Consumer Price Index CSA County Service Area CSAC California State Association of Counties CTC California Transportation Commission dba doing business as DSRIP Delivery System Reform Incentive Program EBMUD East Bay Municipal Utility District ECCFPD East Contra Costa Fire Protection District EIR Environmental Impact Report EIS Environmental Impact Statement EMCC Emergency Medical Care Committee EMS Emergency Medical Services EPSDT Early State Periodic Screening, Diagnosis and Treatment Program (Mental Health) et al. et alii (and others) FAA Federal Aviation Administration FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency F&HS Family and Human Services Committee First 5 First Five Children and Families Commission (Proposition 10) FTE Full Time Equivalent FY Fiscal Year GHAD Geologic Hazard Abatement District GIS Geographic Information System HCD (State Dept of) Housing & Community Development HHS (State Dept of ) Health and Human Services HIPAA Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act HIV Human Immunodeficiency Syndrome HOV High Occupancy Vehicle HR Human Resources HUD United States Department of Housing and Urban Development IHSS In-Home Supportive Services Inc. Incorporated IOC Internal Operations Committee ISO Industrial Safety Ordinance JPA Joint (exercise of) Powers Authority or Agreement Lamorinda Lafayette-Moraga-Orinda Area LAFCo Local Agency Formation Commission LLC Limited Liability Company LLP Limited Liability Partnership Local 1 Public Employees Union Local 1 LVN Licensed Vocational Nurse MAC Municipal Advisory Council MBE Minority Business Enterprise M.D. Medical Doctor M.F.T. Marriage and Family Therapist MIS Management Information System MOE Maintenance of Effort MOU Memorandum of Understanding MTC Metropolitan Transportation Commission NACo National Association of Counties NEPA National Environmental Policy Act OB-GYN Obstetrics and Gynecology O.D. Doctor of Optometry OES-EOC Office of Emergency Services-Emergency Operations Center OPEB Other Post Employment Benefits OSHA Occupational Safety and Health Administration PARS Public Agencies Retirement Services PEPRA Public Employees Pension Reform Act Psy.D. Doctor of Psychology RDA Redevelopment Agency RFI Request For Information RFP Request For Proposal RFQ Request For Qualifications RN Registered Nurse SB Senate Bill SBE Small Business Enterprise SEIU Service Employees International Union SUASI Super Urban Area Security Initiative SWAT Southwest Area Transportation Committee TRANSPAC Transportation Partnership & Cooperation (Central) TRANSPLAN Transportation Planning Committee (East County) TRE or TTE Trustee TWIC Transportation, Water and Infrastructure Committee UASI Urban Area Security Initiative VA Department of Veterans Affairs vs . versus (against) WAN Wide Area Network WBE Women Business Enterprise WCCTAC West Contra Costa Transportation Advisory Committee Beacon Economics | beaconecon.com Christopher Thornberg, PhD Founding Partner, Beacon Economics Director, UCR SoBA Center for Economic Forecasting and Development January 2023 Navigating the Stimulus Hangover Focus on the Contra Costa County Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics RECESSION!!! Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Mixed Economic Signals in ‘22 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Real GDP Growth U of M Consumer Sentiment Index10 Year / 3 Month Yield Curve Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics The US is clearly not in a recession 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 105.0 110.0 Mar-96Oct-97May-99Dec-00Jul-02Feb-04Sep-05Apr-07Nov-08Jun-10Jan-12Aug-13Mar-15Oct-16May-18Dec-19Jul-21US Industrial Production 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 Jan-98Jun-99Nov-00Apr-02Sep-03Feb-05Jul-06Dec-07May-09Oct-10Mar-12Aug-13Jan-15Jun-16Nov-17Apr-19Sep-20Feb-22Unemployment Rate Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics The Narrative: A recession is nigh! —Economy already in crisis due to inequality, tax rates, regulations, global warming, (pick your fav boogie man) —Inflation is crushing consumers —Rates are crushing real estate The Reality: Highly unlikely we will see a recession in the next 2 years —No major imbalances in the real economy —Inflation and rising rates have never caused a recession —They are the consequences of the excessive use of pandemic stimulus What to expect in ‘23 —Consumers / biz investment will offset weakness in real estate —Asset prices will continue to slowly deflate —Rates will likely stabilize as long as the Fed sits on its hands The real worries —Collapse in filtering will intensify housing shortages —Labor shortages are a real problem —Public deficit challenges —The ongoing gap between the narrative and the reality So where are we heading? Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics How did we get here? The U or V debate… Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 55.0%2005Q12006Q12007Q12008Q12009Q12010Q12011Q12012Q12013Q12014Q12015Q12016Q12017Q12018Q12019Q12020Q12021Q12022Q1Federal Expenditures as a Share of GDP Federal Fiscal (Over)reaction $6.5 trillion in 2 years Actual Lost GDP: $1.15 trillion 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 TrillionsFederal Reserve Balance Sheet Holdings of Government Debt Bernanke $3.5T 08-14 Powell $5T 20-21 Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics What war was Jerome fighting? 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 03:Q104:Q105:Q106:Q107:Q108:Q109:Q110:Q111:Q112:Q113:Q114:Q115:Q116:Q117:Q118:Q119:Q120:Q121:Q122:Q1Share Consumer Debt 90+ Days Delinquent MORTGAGE HELOC AUTO CC 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1997:01:001998:02:001999:03:002000:04:002002:01:002003:02:002004:03:002005:04:002007:01:002008:02:002009:03:002010:04:002012:01:002013:02:002014:03:002015:04:002017:01:002018:02:002019:03:002020:04:002022:01:00Bank Delinquencies CommercialRE C&I TotalL&L Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics QE and Money: Then vs Now 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%Jan-67Sep-68May-70Jan-72Sep-73May-75Jan-77Sep-78May-80Jan-82Sep-83May-85Jan-87Sep-88May-90Jan-92Sep-93May-95Jan-97Sep-98May-00Jan-02Sep-03May-05Jan-07Sep-08May-10Jan-12Sep-13May-15Jan-17Sep-18May-20Jan-22Money Supply (M2) 3 Year Growth Rates 1 Year Growth 3 Year Growth Bernanke QE $3.5T 08-14 Powell QE $5T 20-211970’s inflation driver: M1 growth Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics QE and Money: Then vs Now The Problem of Excess Money Short run: Money illusion Falling interest rates Asset price bubbles form Spending and investment binge ensues Long run: The Hangover SR: Inflation and rates rise SR: Asset markets sag LR: Sharp transfers of real wealth LR: Investments risk rises Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 1995-011996-091998-052000-012001-092003-052005-012006-092008-052010-012011-092013-052015-012016-092018-052020-012021-09Wealth Level in bottom 50% of Household, $Billion US asset bubbles and the wealth effect. -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%1985-011987-011989-011991-011993-011995-011997-011999-012001-012003-012005-012007-012009-012011-012013-012015-012017-012019-012021-01US Household Net Worth grew by $30 trillion from 2020-2022 3 Yr Growth % Dot.com (Equity) Sub-prime Jerome’s (QE) Sub-prime (Debt) Dot.com (Equity) Jerome’s QE Sub-prime (Debt) Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Inflation nation… -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Jan-14Jul-14Jan-15Jul-15Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Inflation (YoY) CPI PCE Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics The Inflation Conversation ⏤Supply chain issues ⏤The federal deficit ⏤Greedy corporations and profiteering ⏤Not enough manufacturing jobs in the US ⏤Biden’s bad green energy policies ⏤Putin’s fault! ⏤Saturn is aligned with Jupiter ⏤Kim shouldn’t have dumped Kanye ⏤The Lakers horrible perimeter defense “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” Milton Friedman Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics How much farther can inflation go? 10% to 20% increase in P to offset M2 (with little real growth) 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95 19591961196419661969197119741976197919811984198619891991199419961999200120042006200920112014201620192021Unit Money Supply: M2 / (P * RGDP) M2 32.5% Real Output 4.1% Inflation to date 12.7% Remainder 15.5% Growth Q419 to Q322 Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics The Fed Response 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 13000 14000 15000 16000 17000 18000 19000 20000 21000 22000 23000 M2 and the Fed’s Balance Sheet M2 (Left axis) Fed Balance Sheet (right axis) ~1.50.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 Aug-96Aug-98Aug-00Aug-02Aug-04Aug-06Aug-08Aug-10Aug-12Aug-14Aug-16Aug-18Aug-20Aug-22Federal Funds Rate Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics The Rate Response… 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 Treasury Rates 10 Yr Treas 1 Yr Treas -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00%Jan-85Mar-87May-89Jul-91Sep-93Nov-95Jan-98Mar-00May-02Jul-04Sep-06Nov-08Jan-11Mar-13May-15Jul-17Sep-19Nov-21Inflation Expectations Year 1 Year 2 5 Year: 2.31% Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Shiller’s CAPE Price E10 Ratio 27.4 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 S&P 500 Gravity still works… 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 Deals (000s)Capital ($, Billions)Capital Invested and Number of Deals, Capital Invested ($B)Deal Count Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Recent Real GDP Growth Contributions to Real GDP Growth 2019 2020 2021 2022 Gross domestic product 2.58 1.18 5.75 0.13 Final Demand 2.56 1.18 5.54 0.69 Personal consumption 1.45 0.39 4.74 1.09 Durable goods 0.40 1.40 0.59 0.11 Nondurable goods 0.32 0.81 1.04 -0.41 Services 0.74 -1.82 3.11 1.39 Fixed investment 0.42 0.51 0.67 -0.33 Structures 0.20 -0.50 -0.14 -0.29 Equipment -0.18 0.06 0.28 0.33 Intellectual property 0.33 0.22 0.56 0.45 Residential 0.08 0.74 -0.02 -0.82 Change inventories -0.38 0.79 0.93 -0.82 Net exports 0.40 -0.79 -0.72 0.27 Exports 0.11 -0.83 0.70 0.87 Imports 0.29 0.03 -1.41 -0.60 Government 0.69 0.29 0.12 -0.09 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 Real Change SAAR GDP Final Demand' Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Bad News? 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 Jan-05Sep-05May-06Jan-07Sep-07May-08Jan-09Sep-09May-10Jan-11Sep-11May-12Jan-13Sep-13May-14Jan-15Sep-15May-16Jan-17Sep-17May-18Jan-19Sep-19May-20Jan-21Sep-21May-22Nominal Retail Sales to December Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Still Pent-Up Consumer Demand 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0 17.0 19.0 21.0 23.0 1995-09-011997-03-011998-09-012000-03-012001-09-012003-03-012004-09-012006-03-012007-09-012009-03-012010-09-012012-03-012013-09-012015-03-012016-09-012018-03-012019-09-012021-03-01New Auto Sales SAAR (Mil Units) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Jan-93Oct-94Jul-96Apr-98Jan-00Oct-01Jul-03Apr-05Jan-07Oct-08Jul-10Apr-12Jan-14Oct-15Jul-17Apr-19Jan-21Inventories of Autos for Sale US Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics A shift back to consumer services… 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 Jan-18May-18Sep-18Jan-19May-19Sep-19Jan-20May-20Sep-20Jan-21May-21Sep-21Jan-22May-22Retail Sales on Food Restaurants Groceries $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $, MillionsClark County Gaming Revenue Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Travel Source: VisitCalifornia 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Aug-19Oct-19Dec-19Feb-20Apr-20Jun-20Aug-20Oct-20Dec-20Feb-21Apr-21Jun-21Aug-21Oct-21Dec-21Feb-22Apr-22Jun-22Aug-22Indexed Air Passengers OAK SFO SJC Region ADR Occupancy Rate Q3-22 3-Yr Dif Q3-22 3-Yr Dif US Total $141.7 $14.5 67.4 2.3 East Bay $144.5 -$8.5 77.2 0.7 Inland Empire $120.5 $11.3 72.1 -0.2 San Francisco $240.0 $27.5 80.7 -1.5 LA (MD)$178.8 $19.7 75.1 -5.3 Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Business Activity -Contra Costa County Source: CDTFA, HdL 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Taxable Sales (SA, $, Billions)Taxable Sales *YTD through Q3 Category Q3-22 Sales Tax Receipts ($, Mil.) 1-YR % Growth Contra Costa CA Total 57.1 5.3 8.0 Fuel and Service Stations 5.8 23.7 21.8 Business and Industry 6.4 12.4 9.7 Restaurants and Hotels 6.2 7.4 10.1 County & State Pool 12.1 4.8 7.3 General Consumer Goods 10.2 3.6 2.9 Food and Drugs 3.3 -1.1 0.3 Autos and Transportation 8.3 -1.5 6.0 Building and Construction 0.0 -99.1 7.9 Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Can the consumer survive? Context… 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%Jan-69Jan-72Jan-75Jan-78Jan-81Jan-84Jan-87Jan-90Jan-93Jan-96Jan-99Jan-02Jan-05Jan-08Jan-11Jan-14Jan-17Jan-205 Year Cumulative Inflation (PCE Basis) 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 1980-01-011982-04-011984-07-011986-10-011989-01-011991-04-011993-07-011995-10-011998-01-012000-04-012002-07-012004-10-012007-01-012009-04-012011-07-012013-10-012016-01-012018-04-012020-07-01US Financial Obligations Ratio (% of DPI) Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics The Income Issue 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0%Jan-97Jun-98Nov-99Apr-01Sep-02Feb-04Jul-05Dec-06May-08Oct-09Mar-11Aug-12Jan-14Jun-15Nov-16Apr-18Sep-19Feb-21Jul-22US Savings Rate 13000.0 14000.0 15000.0 16000.0 17000.0 18000.0 19000.0 20000.0 2017-04-012017-08-012017-12-012018-04-012018-08-012018-12-012019-04-012019-08-012019-12-012020-04-012020-08-012020-12-012021-04-012021-08-012021-12-012022-04-012022-08-01US Real Disposable Income Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Income vs Wealth 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 3000000 3500000 4000000 4500000 5000000 1996-011997-081999-032000-102002-052003-122005-072007-022008-092010-042011-112013-062015-012016-082018-032019-102021-05Households: Checkable Deposits and Currency ($Mil) 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2011-012011-092012-052013-012013-092014-052015-012015-092016-052017-012017-092018-052019-012019-092020-052021-012021-092022-05Real HH Net Worth ($tril) to Q3 3 years: +13%, up $14 trillion 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Indexed Balance of Checkable Deposits and Currency by Income Level 50th to 90th 90th to 99th Bottom 50 Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Contradictory Efforts -4500000 -4000000 -3500000 -3000000 -2500000 -2000000 -1500000 -1000000 -500000 0 500000 Dec-81Sep-84Jun-87Mar-90Dec-92Sep-95Jun-98Mar-01Dec-03Sep-06Jun-09Mar-12Dec-14Sep-17Jun-20Federal Deficit 12 month rolling sum Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Business is managing as well… 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1993-10-011995-04-011996-10-011998-04-011999-10-012001-04-012002-10-012004-04-012005-10-012007-04-012008-10-012010-04-012011-10-012013-04-012014-10-012016-04-012017-10-012019-04-012020-10-012022-04-01Non-Financial Corporate Debt to Equity 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2006Q12007Q12008Q12009Q12010Q12011Q12012Q12013Q12014Q12015Q12016Q12017Q12018Q12019Q12020Q12021Q12022Q1Business Profits Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Business’s real issue… Source: VisitCalifornia Job Openings Rate by Sector Jul-19 Jul-22 Total private 4.2 7.7 Health care 2.8 9.3 Leisure hospitality 6.7 9.3 Professional 5.4 9.0 Logistics 3.9 8.0 Other services 3.7 7.5 Financial activities 2.6 7.0 Information 3.9 7.0 Retail trade 4.9 6.5 Manufacturing 2.5 6.2 Education 2.6 6.0 Mining and logging 3.7 5.7 Government 1.5 5.2 Wholesale trade 2.8 4.9 Local education 1.6 4.7 Construction 5.1 4.7 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Jan-01Feb-02Mar-03Apr-04May-05Jun-06Jul-07Aug-08Sep-09Oct-10Nov-11Dec-12Jan-14Feb-15Mar-16Apr-17May-18Jun-19Jul-20Aug-21Sep-22US Job Opening Rate Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics The Era of Labor Shortages is Here -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 19601966197219781984199019962002200820142020202620322038204420502056Prime Working Years Population Growth (Census) Population 25-54 Growth -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 1949195319571961196519691973197719811985198919931997200120052009201320172021YoY Growth US Labor Force Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Business Investment 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 Oct-96May-98Dec-99Jul-01Feb-03Sep-04Apr-06Nov-07Jun-09Jan-11Aug-12Mar-14Oct-15May-17Dec-18Jul-20Feb-22New Orders Non-Defense Capital GoodsReal Business Investment 2019 2022 Q3 Q3 Private fixed investment 3437.0 3550.5 3.3% Software 471.3 653.5 38.7% Information processing eq 486.6 582.3 19.7% Research and development 459.5 540.3 17.6% Entertainment, literary 85.0 94.8 11.5% Industrial equipment 248.7 258.9 4.1% Manufacturing 63.3 59.8 -5.5% Transportation equipment 270.8 249.1 -8.0% Commercial and health care 172.0 136.5 -20.6% Mining exploration 132.0 100.2 -24.1% Power and communication 123.2 79.9 -35.1% Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics A 2 -edged sword… 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1/1/994/1/007/1/0110/1/021/1/044/1/057/1/0610/1/071/1/094/1/107/1/1110/1/121/1/144/1/157/1/1610/1/171/1/194/1/207/1/21Growth in Worker Earnings by Quartile 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Location Aug-19 Aug-22 Fresno 796 987 24.0% Las Vegas 818 978 19.6% San Diego 1034 1234 19.3% Sacramento 960 1134 18.1% Orange County 1110 1294 16.6% Inland Empire 854 992 16.2% Los Angeles 1101 1277 16.0% Portland 1050 1213 15.5% Phoenix 989 1126 13.9% San Francisco 1543 1756 13.8% Santa Barbara 931 1002 7.6% Bakersfield 1006 1074 6.7% San Jose 1631 1717 5.2% East Bay 1227 1275 3.9% Seattle 1453 1450 -0.2% Average Weekly Earnings Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Regionally? Who is Ahead? Behind? Payrolls Gr 14-22 Gr 19-22 1 Idaho 825.4 26.1%8.2% 2 Utah 1676.3 26.0%7.3% 3 Florida 9460.5 20.4%5.3% 4 Arizona 3088.7 20.0%4.6% 5 Nevada 1462.0 19.7%3.0% 6 Texas 13539.1 16.3%5.3% 7 Colorado 2874.2 16.2%2.6% 8 North Carolina 4804.3 15.8%4.6% 9 Georgia 4821.8 15.8%4.2% 10 Washington 3522.5 14.8%1.3% 11 Tennessee 3247.0 14.6%3.8% 12 South Carolina 2238.7 14.5%1.9% 13 Oregon 1974.7 14.0%0.8% 14 California 17650.9 13.0%1.1% 15 Montana 506.0 11.2%4.1% Payroll Job Gains 14 to 22Alaska10.1 4.1 South Carolina 7.4 2.5 Nebraska 6.6 1.9 Kentucky 7.9 3.4 Iowa 6.9 2.4 Arizona 7.1 1.7 Georgia 7.9 3.1 Oklahoma 7.2 2.4 Wisconsin 6.7 1.7 Tennessee 7.6 2.9 Maine 7.0 2.4 Pennsylvania 5.9 1.6 Illinois 6.9 2.9 Hawaii 7.1 2.4 Florida 6.2 1.6 Massachusetts 7.2 2.8 Alabama 6.8 2.3 Utah 6.4 1.5 Delaware 7.3 2.8 Vermont 7.4 2.3 Indiana 6.5 1.5 Mississippi 7.3 2.7 Michigan 6.9 2.3 Arkansas 6.7 1.5 Montana 8.3 2.7 California 6.5 2.2 North Dakota 7.0 1.5 Louisiana 7.5 2.7 New Hampshire 6.7 2.2 New Jersey 5.7 1.4 Wyoming 8.4 2.7 Rhode Island 6.9 2.2 Kansas 6.4 1.4 Connecticut 6.5 2.7 South Dakota 7.1 2.1 New Mexico 7.4 1.3 Virginia 7.9 2.7 Maryland 7.0 2.1 Missouri 6.4 1.3 Minnesota 7.1 2.6 Colorado 7.4 2.1 Oregon 6.5 1.3 Texas 7.2 2.6 Ohio 6.8 2.1 New York 5.4 1.2 Nevada 6.8 2.6 Idaho 7.2 2.0 Washington 6.1 1.2 West Virginia 8.3 2.6 District of Columbia 5.9 1.9 North Carolina 7.0 1.1 Current State Job Opening Rate, with change 19-22 Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Regional Outcomes 0 50 100 150 200 250 % (SA)Indexed Job Openings California Oregon Washington 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Jan-07May-08Sep-09Jan-11May-12Sep-13Jan-15May-16Sep-17Jan-19May-20Sep-21Unemployment Rate Washington Oregon California 95 100 105 110 115 120 Index LF (SA)Indexed Labor Force California Oregon Washington Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics The Real California Story 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Mar-88Mar-90Mar-92Mar-94Mar-96Mar-98Mar-00Mar-02Mar-04Mar-06Mar-08Mar-10Mar-12Mar-14Mar-16Mar-18Mar-20Mar-22Private Housing Permits California Texas -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%201120132015201720192021202320252027202920312033203520372039204120432045California Population Forecasts by Age (CA DoF est.) 15-64 65+ Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Vacancies and Housing Costs Source: REIS 2018 2021 2018 2021 California 29.4%29.6%45.4%46.4% Los Angeles 34.3%35.2%47.8%49.6% Riverside 31.9%31.1%51.6%48.8% San Bernardino 27.7%28.6%48.2%46.8% Sacramento 24.4%24.2%45.8%46.0% Fresno 24.5%25.5%46.9%44.9% Santa Clara 25.5%25.3%36.4%34.7% Share Households > 35% Housing Cost to Income 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020122014201620182020California Housing Vacancy Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics The State Employment Situation Unemployment Payrolls Labor Force Unemployment Rate Jul-19 Jul-22 Jul-22 Ch 19-22 Jul-22 Ch 19-22 California 4.0 3.9 17,618 1.1%19,327 -0.4% Inland Empire 3.9 3.3 1,667 7.2%2,184 5.0% Stockton 5.7 4.5 263 6.6%335 2.5% Sacramento 3.5 2.8 1,055 3.0%1,122 1.5% Fresno 7.1 5.3 377 4.3%456 1.5% Bakersfield 7.9 5.9 279 2.9%386 0.8% San Jose 2.5 1.8 1,168 1.9%1,086 0.0% San Diego 3.1 2.6 1,519 1.0%1,585 -0.3% Santa Barbara 3.4 2.6 195 1.1%221 -0.8% Modesto 6.0 4.5 184 1.5%241 -0.9% San Francisco (MD)2.0 1.7 1,178 -0.8%1,034 -1.0% Orange County (MD)2.6 2.2 1,676 -0.1%1,605 -1.2% Oakland (MD)2.9 2.4 1,181 -0.6%1,385 -1.7% Ventura 3.4 2.7 308 -1.3%411 -3.0% Los Angeles (MD)4.4 4.9 4,532 -0.6%5,022 -3.1% Santa Rosa 2.6 2.2 204 -2.6%250 -3.4% Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Labor Markets Source: REIS 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 %Unemployment Rate East Bay San Francisco San Jose 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 IndexedLabor Force East Bay San Francisco San Jose Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Employment –East Bay Source: California EDD, QCEW 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 Employment (000s, SA)Total Employment Industry Q4-22 Emp (000s) 3-Yr Chg (000s) 3-Yr % Growth Total Nonfarm 1185.3 -10.6 -0.9 Manufacturing 115.3 13.7 13.5 Education/Health 208.9 8.4 4.2 Trade,Transport,Util.203.2 2.8 1.4 Prof Sci and Tech 104.9 2.4 2.4 Retail Trade 109.3 -1.9 -1.7 Information 25.1 -2.2 -8.1 Construction 73.8 -2.6 -3.4 Wholesale Trade 42.2 -2.7 -6.1 Admin Support 65.3 -3.6 -5.2 Financial Activities 51.4 -4.3 -7.7 Government 164.2 -10.9 -6.2 Leisure and Hospitality 107.8 -12.9 -10.7 Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Contra Costa Employment 290000 300000 310000 320000 330000 340000 350000 360000 370000 380000 Q1-13Q4-13Q3-14Q2-15Q1-16Q4-16Q3-17Q2-18Q1-19Q4-19Q3-20Q2-21Q1-22Payroll Employment 400,000 420,000 440,000 460,000 480,000 500,000 520,000 540,000 560,000 Jan-12Mar-13May-14Jul-15Sep-16Nov-17Jan-19Mar-20May-21Jul-22Household Employment 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%Jan-10Apr-11Jul-12Oct-13Jan-15Apr-16Jul-17Oct-18Jan-20Apr-21Jul-22Unemployment Rate Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics CCC Employment 2019 Dec 2021 Dec Ch Total, All Industries 380,000 368,400 -11,600 Health Care & Social Assistance 65,200 68,500 3,300 Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 12,600 14,300 1,700 Professional, Scientific & Technical Services 25,300 26,000 700 Administrative & Support & Waste Services 24,300 24,600 300 Retail Trade 43,300 43,300 0 Educational Services 7,800 7,100 -700 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 6,500 5,800 -700 Wholesale Trade 8,900 8,100 -800 Information 7,000 5,800 -1,200 Management of Companies & Enterprises 8,600 7,300 -1,300 Other Services 13,600 12,300 -1,300 Mining, Logging and Construction 26,200 24,500 -1,700 Manufacturing 15,700 14,000 -1,700 Financial Activities 26,900 24,600 -2,300 Accommodation & Food Services 36,000 33,300 -2,700 Government 51,600 48,300 -3,300 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 30000 32000 34000 36000 38000 2006-012007-022008-032009-042010-052011-062012-072013-082014-092015-102016-112017-122019-012020-022021-032022-04Private Sector Establishments Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Income Dynamics Source: Equifax, US Federal Housing Finance Agency 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 Percent of Total PopSubprime Credit Population, Contra Costa County 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021Inequality CC AL SC 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 199720002003200620092012201520182021Poverty Rate Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Earnings Growth 17-21 (ACS) Contra Costa Antioch city Concord city Pittsburg city Richmond city Median earnings (dollars) for full-time, year- round workers with earnings 78453 17.6%64250 40.0%70820 14.6%51200 21.1%64008 47.2% Mean earnings (dollars) for full-time, year- round workers with earnings 112783 20.3%78333 35.5%89721 22.6%62498 5.4%84187 46.7% MEDIAN EARNINGS BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Less than high school graduate 32357 23.2%35298 41.2%30781 13.5%30179 14.6%31883 18.6% High school graduate (includes equivalency)44787 27.1%40873 30.9%47740 28.1%44455 79.2%36045 -11.3% Some college or associate's degree 51527 22.7%52393 27.7%54137 35.2%47640 30.9%42831 28.1% Bachelor's degree 83427 11.8%70804 27.0%75384 13.4%62376 3.1%76428 27.7% Graduate or professional degree 103589 8.2%79861 52.3%90577 12.2%87824 63.3%80109 -1.1% Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Population Source: California DOF -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Components of Change (Thousands)Population (Millions)Contra Costa Population Population Net Migration Select Cities 2022 Population 1-Yr % Growth County Total 1,156,555 -0.4 Oakley 44,533 2.1 Brentwood 64,342 0.2 Danville 43,352 0.0 Antioch 115,074 -0.1 El Cerrito 25,650 -0.1 Richmond 114,489 -0.1 Orinda 19,478 -0.1 Incorporated 979,614 -0.4 San Ramon 83,820 -0.5 Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Contra Costa Labor Force 470000 480000 490000 500000 510000 520000 530000 540000 550000 560000 570000 Jan-04Feb-05Mar-06Apr-07May-08Jun-09Jul-10Aug-11Sep-12Oct-13Nov-14Dec-15Jan-17Feb-18Mar-19Apr-20May-21Jun-22Labor Force 2021 Ch 15-21 % Ch 15- 21 Population 25 to 64 years 500008 25954 5.5% Less than high school 43594 1115 2.6% High school graduate 83726 5003 6.4% Some college or associate's degree 127953 -19114 -13.0% Bachelor's degree or higher 244561 38965 19.0% Age < 30 124197 -1905 -1.5% Age 30-54 333119 15656 4.9% Age 55+151624 21972 16.9% Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Solutions —Extensive: Increasing labor force through immigration (SR) or birthrates (LR) —Intensive: Raising participation rates among the existing population —Productivity enhancements: capital investments / skill training Labor Shortage Solutions Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics How About Residential Markets? 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0 3500.0 4000.0 4500.0 5000.0 5500.0 6000.0 6500.0 7000.0 Jan-97Jun-99Nov-01Apr-04Sep-06Feb-09Jul-11Dec-13May-16Oct-18Mar-21Existing Homes Sales (000’s. SAAR) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Jan-88Mar-91May-94Jul-97Sep-00Nov-03Jan-07Mar-10May-13Jul-16Sep-19Months Supply New Homes For sale 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Jan-88Dec-90Nov-93Oct-96Sep-99Aug-02Jul-05Jun-08May-11Apr-14Mar-17Feb-20Single Family Housing Starts Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Housing Market Source: CoreLogic 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Home Sales (000s)Median Home Price ($, 000s)Contra Costa Home Prices and Sales Median Price Home Sales County Median Prices Home Sales Q2-22 ($) 1-Yr % Gr Q2-22 1-Yr % Gr Alameda 1,309,808 17.1 2,956 -23 Ventura 885,635 12.5 1,748 -22.5 Monterey 832,955 6.2 682 -21.0 San Francisco 1,776,255 5.7 776 -12.6 Contra Costa 885,830 3.4 2,952 -22.2 Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Sticker Shock $10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000 $30,000 1971-04-011975-04-011979-04-011983-04-011987-04-011991-04-011995-04-011999-04-012003-04-012007-04-012011-04-012015-04-012019-04-01New Home Cost (Annual payment 100% LTV)Tampa 64.0%Los Angeles 37.9% Phoenix 62.0%San Francisco 35.1% Miami 61.4%New York 34.9% Dallas 54.2%Boston 34.6% Charlotte 49.5%Portland 33.6% Las Vegas 49.2%Cleveland 30.9% San Diego 49.1%Detroit 29.4% Atlanta 45.8%Chicago 27.4% Seattle 43.9%DC 26.0% Denver 40.3%Minneapolis 24.6% Case Shiller HPA July 20 –July 22 Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Market Collapse? Not a chance… Northeast Midwest South West Vacant Year Round 2022 7.6%7.4%9.6%6.6% For Sale / Rent 2.0%2.4%2.7%2.0% Vacant Year Round 2012 8.9%9.9%12.6%9.0% For Sale / Rent 3.3%4.0%4.7%3.5% Vacant Year Round 2008 8.6%9.8%12.3%8.4% For Sale / Rent 3.6%4.9%5.3%3.6% Overall Housing Vacancy 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Jan-90Dec-91Nov-93Oct-95Sep-97Aug-99Jul-01Jun-03May-05Apr-07Mar-09Feb-11Jan-13Dec-14Nov-16Oct-18Sep-20Months Supply of Existing Homes Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Market Collapse? Not a chance… 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 195919621966196919731976198019841987199119941998200220052009201220162019Real Equity in US Real Estate (Households, $Bil 1-4 family) 45.0% 50.0% 55.0% 60.0% 65.0% 70.0% 75.0% 80.0% 85.0% 90.0%03:Q104:Q105:Q106:Q107:Q108:Q109:Q110:Q111:Q112:Q113:Q114:Q115:Q116:Q117:Q118:Q119:Q120:Q121:Q122:Q1Share Mortgage Debt > 720 FICO Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Recent Numbers 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 2016-072016-122017-052017-102018-032018-082019-012019-062019-112020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-10Active Listings California 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 2016-072016-122017-052017-102018-032018-082019-012019-062019-112020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-10Listing Price: California Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics The Local Situation: CC County 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 1000000 2016-072016-112017-032017-072017-112018-032018-072018-112019-032019-072019-112020-032020-072020-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-11Asking Price 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2016-072016-122017-052017-102018-032018-082019-012019-062019-112020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-052022-10Listings Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Market Driver: Housing Demand 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 Q1-03Q2-04Q3-05Q4-06Q1-08Q2-09Q3-10Q4-11Q1-13Q2-14Q3-15Q4-16Q1-18Q2-19Q3-20Q4-21US Apartment Markets Rent Vacancy 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Jan-89Apr-91Jul-93Oct-95Jan-98Apr-00Jul-02Oct-04Jan-07Apr-09Jul-11Oct-13Jan-16Apr-18Jul-20Starts 5+ Unit Buildings Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Apartments Source: REIS 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Rent ($)Cost of Rent East Contra Costa West Contra Costa San Francsico San Jose 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 %Vacancy Rates East Contra Costa West Contra Costa San Francisco San Jose Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Household Income Source: ACS 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 Percent of IncomeMedian Rent as % of HH Income Alameda Contra Costa Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Residential Permits –Bay Area Source: CIRB County Single-family Permits Multifamily Permits 2022* 1-Yr Abs. Chg 2022* 1-Yr Abs. Chg San Francisco 266 131 3,380 564 Monterey 404 -59 451 155 Santa Clara 1,299 -475 4,378 1,237 Alameda 1,011 -517 2,438 -1,641 Contra Costa 1,337 -870 548 -1,153 Sacramento 3,160 -1,019 4,100 1,834 *YTD through Q3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Permits (000s)Number of Permits, Total Bay Multifamily Single-Family Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Non-Residential Markets 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 Jan-94Nov-95Sep-97Jul-99May-01Mar-03Jan-05Nov-06Sep-08Jul-10May-12Mar-14Jan-16Nov-17Sep-19Jul-21Non-Residential Construction Spending Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Nonresidential Rents and Vacancies Source: REIS Office Cost of Rent Vacancy Rates Q3-22 ($/sf)1-Yr % Gr Q3-22 (%)1-Yr Abs. Chg North I-680 30.1 -0.1 12.2 -0.5 North Contra Costa 33.2 -0.3 20.1 2.3 West Contra Costa 31.7 -0.6 21.4 0.9 Retail Central Contra Costa 35.5 0.1 8.2 0.0 East Contra Costa 24.8 0.1 9.9 0.3 West Contra Costa 35.2 0.1 9.7 0.0 Warehousing/Distribution Concord/Pittsburg 7.1 20.4 1.0 -5.7 Berkeley, Richmond, and Martinez 8.7 17.5 3.5 -2.5 Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Nonres Real Estate –Contra Costa County Source: CIRB 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Permit Valuations ($, Millions)Permit Values Commercial Alterations Permit Type 2022* Permit Value ($, Mil) Abs. Change vs. 2021* ($, Mil) Hotel 14.5 14.5 Alterations 226.6 83.4 Commercial 30.4 -82.7 Retail 15.7 -48.8 Office 0.1 -29.7 *YTD through Q3 Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Office Space 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 Q1-02Q1-03Q1-04Q1-05Q1-06Q1-07Q1-08Q1-09Q1-10Q1-11Q1-12Q1-13Q1-14Q1-15Q1-16Q1-17Q1-18Q1-19Q1-20Q1-21Q1-22National Trends Rent Vacancy Rate -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 0 1 2 3 4 5 6Change Vacancy 19-22Log Size of Market (SF) Mixed Results SF Seattle Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Work -from-home Trends Source: ACS, SWAA, Barrero, Bloom, and Davis (2021) 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Days WFH / weekWFH: Employer Plans vs Worker Desires Employer Plans Worker Desires 0 5 10 15 20 25 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 California (21.4%)Los Angeles (20.9%) Orange (22.2%)Riverside (13.7%) San Bernardino (13.6%)San Diego (22.1%) Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics The Fiscal Situation 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1980Q1Q4Q3Q21987Q1Q4Q3Q21994Q1Q4Q3Q22001Q1Q4Q3Q22008Q1Q4Q3Q22015Q1Q4Q3Q22022Q1Federal Debt % GDP Federal Debt % GDP -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%1980Q1Q4Q3Q21987Q1Q4Q3Q21994Q1Q4Q3Q22001Q1Q4Q3Q22008Q1Q4Q3Q22015Q1Q4Q3Q22022Q1Federal Flows % GDP Deficit CBO Forecast Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Are Global Bond Markets Afraid? 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 2006-01-012006-07-012007-01-012007-07-012008-01-012008-07-012009-01-012009-07-012010-01-012010-07-012011-01-012011-07-012012-01-012012-07-012013-01-012013-07-012014-01-012014-07-012015-01-012015-07-012016-01-012016-07-012017-01-012017-07-012018-01-012018-07-012019-01-012019-07-012020-01-012020-07-012021-01-012021-07-012022-01-012022-07-01Real Value of $US Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics Growing Pressures 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%1980Q11982Q11984Q11986Q11988Q11990Q11992Q11994Q11996Q11998Q12000Q12002Q12004Q12006Q12008Q12010Q12012Q12014Q12016Q12018Q12020Q12022Q1Federal Interest Payments as % of GDP Interest Payments Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics The Local Risks 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%2003Q12004Q12005Q12006Q12007Q12008Q12009Q12010Q12011Q12012Q12013Q12014Q12015Q12016Q12017Q12018Q12019Q12020Q12021Q12022Q1Federal Support for S&L Gov Spending State Local Intergovernmental revenue From Federal Government 26.7%3.4% From State government1 27.5% General revenue from own sources 57.6%58.6% Taxes 41.9%37.6% Property 0.7%27.0% Sales and gross receipts 19.5%6.7% Individual income 15.8%1.8% Corporate income 2.3%0.4% Motor vehicle license 1.1%0.1% Current charges 9.5%15.9% Miscellaneous general revenue 6.2%5.1% Beacon EconomicsBeacon Economics •Bay Area •Not quite the dystopian place often portrayed •Region saw enormous expansion pre-Covid, some settling to be expected •Cooling in VC will only help other sectors •Overall demand for tech to remain strong •Housing in short supply— convert old office space? •Governance matters A bumpy path ahead… •Potential Scenarios •What will the Fed do? Raise it til they break it? •Wild cards: Long run fiscal situation, US terms of trade •Global situation: China is swooning •Gap between economic reality and political narratives still dangerously wide •Expansion to Continue •Asset values to fall, liquidity drying up •Construction to be cold •Inflation will continue to be hot •Wealth and income will drive consumer spending •Underlying asset quality to remain strong •Economy is brittle—small shocks can have big consequences Thank You Chris@BeaconEcon.com | beaconecon.com RECOMMENDATION(S): ACCEPT the report from Beacon Economics: "Navigating the Stimulus Hangover; Focus on Contra Costa County." FISCAL IMPACT: This report is for informational purposes and has no specific fiscal impact. BACKGROUND: Attached is the Beacon Economics report: "Navigating the Stimulus Hangover; Focus on Contra Costa County." APPROVE OTHER RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD COMMITTEE Action of Board On: 01/24/2023 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER Clerks Notes: VOTE OF SUPERVISORS AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor Diane Burgis, District III Supervisor Ken Carlson, District IV Supervisor Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor Contact: Adam Nguyen, (925) 665-2048 I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown. ATTESTED: January 24, 2023 Monica Nino, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors By: , Deputy cc: D.1 To:Board of Supervisors From:Monica Nino, County Administrator Date:January 24, 2023 Contra Costa County Subject:Report from Beacon Economics CLERK'S ADDENDUM Board voted 5-0 to accept updated slide presentation. Public Comments: Mariana, Roxanne, Caller 6770 ATTACHMENTS Navigating the Stimulus Hangover; Focus on Contra Costa County (Updated) January 24, 2023 to the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors by Ryan Fukumori, Ph.D., Senior Associate, PolicyLink Summarizing the State of EquityinContra Costa County How do we measure community health and wellbeing from an equity perspective? •Data snapshots from US Census & American Community Survey •Excerpts from our analytical reports and data tools (Bay Area Equity Atlas and National Equity Atlas) •Testimonials from Contra Costa County community members MAIN DATA SOURCES •Offer a high-level summary of equity concerns in Contra Costa County to inform Supervisors’ considerations re: budget allocation •Support government and community efforts to operationalize the county’s Office of Racial Equity and Social Justice in 2023 TODAY’S GOALS Bay Area Equity Atlas (bayareaequityatlas.org) A comprehensive data support system to track the state of equity across the region and equip community leaders with data to inform solutions for inclusive prosperity. •23 equity indicators for 272 geographies (cities, counties, Census tracts, etc.) •Policy solutions •Original demographic & socioeconomic research/analysis •Training •Data support for advocacy campaigns THREE KEY TRENDS #1 : THE ENDURING LEGACY of RACIAL EXCLUSIONDespite a more diverse population, significant racial disparities in housing have persisted in the County despite the enactment of fair housing laws in the 1960s. #2 : THE INEQUITABLE LANDSCAPE BEFORE COVID-19Existing housing, employment, and health disparities in Contra Costa County led to residents of color facing higher financial and health risks during, and after, the shelter-in-place order. #3 : ONGOING DISPARITIES IN COVID-19 RECOVERYResidents of color have been slower to financially recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, reinforcing if not worsening these longstanding inequities. TREND #1 : THE ENDURING LEGACY of RACIAL EXCLUSIONSince the 1960s, Contra Costa County has become more racially diverse. Percent of White Residents by Census Tract, 1960 –2020 (includes Hispanic/Latino residents who identify as white) Source: 1970 US Census & 2016-2020 American Community Survey Data, mapped on Social Explorer TREND #1 : THE ENDURING LEGACY of RACIAL EXCLUSIONHowever,major racial inequities have persisted in Contra Costa County since the Civil Rights Era. Source: 1970 US Census & 2016-2020 American Community Survey Data, via Social Explorer and IPUMS In 2020, 45%of all county residents living in families met HUD standards for low-income or very low-income status, vs. 59% of Black and 60% of Latino family household members. 40% 50% 60% 70% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Homeownership Rate in CCC by Decade All Residents Black Latino 0% 10% 20% 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Poverty Rate in CCC by Decade All Residents Black Latino TREND #1 : THE ENDURING LEGACY of RACIAL EXCLUSIONContra Costa County is home to 5 of the 20 most segregated wealthy, white Census tracts* in the 9-County Bay Area, per a recent Bay Area Equity Atlas study. Source: Bay Area Equity Atlas, “One in 10 Bay Area Neighborhoods are Segregated Areas of White Wealth” (2022) *These neighborhoods make up parts of Orinda, Lafayette, and Alamo. TREND #2 : THE INEQUITABLE LANDSCAPE BEFORE COVID-19In the decades leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, renters in Contra Costa County faced growing challenges with housing affordability. ALL MONETARY FIGURES WERE INFLATION ADJUSTED TO 2021 DOLLAR VALUES. Source: 2000 US Census & 2016-2020 American Community Survey Data, via Social Explorer •Between 2000 and 2020: o The county’s median rent increased by 42%, while the median household income for renters increased by just 11%. o The share of rent-burdened households* grew by 9 percentage points (41% to 50%). •Compared to white households, Black households were twice as likely to be overcrowded in 2020. Latino households were 8 times as likely to be overcrowded.** * Defined as spending more than 30% of income on rent and utilities.** Defined as more than one occupant per room in the unit, minus kitchens and bathrooms. It’s not fair that working people have to [struggle] for a roof over their head that is literally crumbling. EDITH PASTRANO, ALLIANCE of CALIFORNIANS for COMMUNITY EMPOWERMENT, to the EAST BAYTIMES(2022) TREND #2 : THE INEQUITABLE LANDSCAPE BEFORE COVID-19Income inequality in Contra Costa County has worsened over the past two generations. Since 1980, pay for the highest-wage workers has increased, while earned income has decreased for those with thelowest paying jobs. Source: ReWork the Bay Data Dashboards for Contra Costa County Earned Income Growth for Full-Time Workers inContraCostaCounty, 1980 -2019 TREND #2 : THE INEQUITABLE LANDSCAPE BEFORE COVID-19Prior to COVID-19, local residents of color were disproportionately represented in occupations that predisposed workers to COVID-19 risk. Contra Costa County Residents by Race/Ethnicity (2020 Data)% of Workforce in Service, Manufacturing, & Transportation % of Workforce in Business, Finance, STEM, and Arts Non-Hispanic White 18%55% Asian American 22%55% ALL RESIDENTS 26%46% Black 32%37% Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander 37%26% Latino 41%25% American Indian/Alaskan Native 41%26% Source: 2016-2020 American Community Survey Data, via Social Explorer TREND #2 : THE INEQUITABLE LANDSCAPE BEFORE COVID-19Residents of color are concentrated in areas adjacent to the refineries, which elevate asthma rates. These respiratory disabilities can make COVID-19 more dangerous. Source: 2016-2020 American Community Survey Data, mapped on Social Explorer; Reina Rau, “Asthma rates near oil refineries and terminals in Contra Costa County” (2017) Percent of Nonwhite Residents by Census Tract, 2020 Pollution Burden by Census Tract, 2017 A few people in my family have respiratory issues. The elderly people in my family, my mom and my auntie –they can’t breathe and they’re always sick. BRANDY KHANSOUVONG, ASIAN PACIFIC ENVIRONMENTAL NETWORK & RICHMOND RESIDENT, to THE GUARDIAN (2022) TREND #3 : ONGOING DISPARITIES IN COVID-19 RECOVERYBlack and Latino residents in Contra Costa County died from COVID-19 at elevated rates before vaccines became widely accessible. Increased spread of the disease can also lead to increased levels of long COVID, which threatens to remove people from the workforce and imperil households dependent on the incomes of newly disabled family members. COVID-19 Cases and Deaths Relative to White Residents, Contra Costa County (Through December 2020) TREND #3 : ONGOING DISPARITIES IN COVID-19 RECOVERYThousandsofresidentsinContraCosta County still face rental debts incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic and eviction moratorium. Source: National Equity Atlas, ”Rent Debt in America” interactive dashboard (orig. 2021, updated Dec. 2022) We estimate that, as of December 2022: •There are 11,700 households in Contra Costa County that are behind on rent. •The cumulative rental debt totals $51.2 million,or an averageof$4,400 per household. •Roughly 6,600 children live in these households behind on their rent. For these families (and many others), surging inflation and the looming threat of a recession can only compound their ongoing financial burdens. Since tenants didn’t have lawyers, [landlord] stories became over-simplified, morally and legally, in ways that forced families from their homes. REV. MILLIE PHILLIPS, FAITH ALLIANCE for a MORAL ECONOMY, RECOUNTING THEIR EXPERIENCE AS AN EVICTION COURT OBSERVER IN CONTRA COSTA COUNTY (2022) TREND #3 : ONGOING DISPARITIES IN COVID-19 RECOVERYAcross the Bay Area, residents of color have been slower to recover financial losses from the pandemic, and still are likelier to struggle with meeting basic needs. Source: Bay Area Equity Atlas, ”Bay Area Recovery Tracker” interactive dashboard (2022) Percent of Bay Area Households Reporting Employment Income Loss (L) and Experiencing Food Insecurity (R), Aug. 2020 to Oct. 2 022 THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS Antidiscrimination and equal opportunity policies alone have not flattened the racial and class disparities present over the past 60 years. Advancing racial equity requires long-term commitment and explicit attention to the legacies of historical injury. Without equitable recovery efforts, the COVID-19 pandemic threatens to worsen generations-old racial wealth gaps. The pandemic must be a lesson about how future crises (earthquakes, fires, floods) could also exacerbate long-term inequities. Building equity demands robust data collection and tracking, including the sustainedinputofresidentswho have lived experiences navigating the systems, structures, and institutions we seek to make more equitable. Explore more data about our region on the Bay Area Equity Atlas at: http://bayareaequityatlas.org Questions? Contact me at: ryan@bayareaequityatlas.org Thank you! Contra Costa BOS Budget Retreat 2023 Who We Are Our Mission ●The Contra Costa Budget Justice Coalition advocates for community engagement in the Contra Costa County budgeting process and for a set of values-based budgeting principles. ●We educate, advocate and engage with communities across Contra Costa County on budget issues. ●Our Coalition is composed of 35 local organizations. Our Members ●350 Contra Costa ●AFSCME Local 2700 ●Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment (ACCE) Contra Costa ●Asian Pacific Environmental Network ●Bay Area Community Services ●Choice in Aging ●Community Clinics Consortium ●Contra Costa Labor Council ●Contra Costa Office of Education ●East Bay Alliance for a Sustainable Economy ●East Contra Costa Community Alliance ●Ensuring Opportunity Campaign ●First 5 Contra Costa/Family Economic Security Partnership ●Food Bank of Contra Costa ●Great Richmond Interfaith Program ●Healthy Richmond/Local Initiatives Support Corporation ●Human Services Alliance of Contra Costa ●IFPTE Local 21 ●League of Women Voters Diablo Valley ●Local Initiatives Support Corporation ●Meals on Wheels Senior Outreach ●Monument Impact ●Multi-Faith Action Coalition ●Planned Parenthood of Northern California ●Racial Justice Coalition of Contra Costa ●Richmond Community Foundation (RCF Connects) ●Richmond LAND ●Rubicon Programs ●Safe Return Project ●SEIU Local 1021 ●SURJ Contra Costa ●United Latino Voices ●And many residents of Contra Costa Dealing with the budget during uncertain times The Budget is a moral document. A set of values and principles that guide decision-making. A key to considering how those most impacted by the budget are affected by our choices. Given the Economic Uncertainty… The County may be faced with some tough budget decisions. But we MUST REMEMBER that low-income people face even greater challenges, and community needs will only increase. Contra Costa County’s Commitment to Equity Contra Costa County has committed to addressing equity in communities across the County. What should that mean in terms of the budget process? ➔Engage Identify opportunities to inform and engage the community at key decision points, in ways that are equitable and inclusive. ➔Invest Show our communities you CARE, as expressed by investment amounts an priorities. ➔Be Bold Unprecedented times present opportunities in to explore new concepts and work together in new ways. Embed Equity Goals in the Budget Measure Assess results Map Map goals to budget items Define Spell out equity goals Prioritize Establish equity priorities An Opportunity: American Rescue Plan Act Examples: guaranteed income pilot, ORESJ participatory budgeting, African American Wellness Center and others ARPA provides maximum flexibility on how to spend funds Workshop to get community input on priority projects There are $37.5 million dollars left unallocated Thank You! Questions? sara@budgetjusticecc.org County Administrator’s Office January 24, 2023 County Budget Development Key Drivers and Considerations Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Agenda 2 1.County financial updates 2.COVID Cost Recovery 3.Budgeting concerns 4.FY23-24 budget hearings 5.Recommendations Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Bay Area Unemployment Rates November 2022 The Bay Area’s and County’s unemployment levels have rebounded strongly from the highs experienced during the COVID pandemic. Alameda 2.9% Contra Costa 3.2% Marin 2.2% Napa 2.7% San Francisco 2.1% San Mateo 2.0% Santa Clara 2.2% Solano 3.9% Sonoma 2.6% Bay Average 2.6% (3.9% Last Year) 3 Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Unemployment Rates 1990-2022 4 6.5 2.9 4.0 11.3% 3.0 3.2 9.2 12.1% 9.0 3.8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Contra Costa CA AlamedaSource: CA Employment Development Department Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Labor contracts Filled Contract Positions End Date AFSCME Local 512, Professional and Technical Employees 225 6/30/2026 AFSCME Local 2700, United Clerical, Technical and Specialized Employees 1,425 6/30/2026 California Nurses Association 1,144 9/30/2025 CCC Defenders Association 93 6/30/2022 CCC Deputy District Attorneys’ Association 91 6/30/2026 Deputy Sheriffs Association, Mgmt Unit and Rank and File Unit 794 6/30/2023 Deputy Sheriffs Association, Probation Peace Officers Association 242 6/30/2023 District Attorney Investigator’s Association 26 6/30/2026 IAFF Local 1230 408 6/30/2023 Physicians and Dentists of Contra Costa 289 12/31/2022 Professional & Technical Engineers –Local 21, AFL-CIO 1,168 6/30/2026 Public Employees Union, Local One & FACS Site Supervisor Unit 487 6/30/2026 SEIU Local 1021, Rank and File and Service Line Supervisors Units 861 6/30/2026 Teamsters, Local 856 1,798 6/30/2026 United Chief Officers' Association 17 6/30/2023 Western Council of Engineers 23 6/30/2026 Management Classified & Exempt & Management Project 848 N/A 9,939 5 Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Contra Costa County -Assessed Value Fiscal Years 00/01 -21/22 6 $85B $256B 11.7% -7.0% -3.0% -0.4% 8.9% 7.8% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% (200) (150) (100) (50) - 50 100 150 200 250 300 FY00-01 FY05-06 FY10-11 FY15-16 FY20-21Billions Net Assessed Value Year on Year Change (%)Source: CA BOE Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Property Tax Revenues Fiscal Years 2006-2022 7 $293M $263M $456M -6.5% 8.1% 4.4% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% -$250M -$150M -$50M $50M $150M $250M $350M $450M $550M 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 County County YOY %Δ Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Property Tax Revenues Fiscal Years 2006-2022 8 $293M $263M $456M $88M $79M $147M -6.5% 8.1% -8.4% 12.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% $(250) $(150) $(50) $50 $150 $250 $350 $450 $550 2006-07 2011-12 2016-17 2021-22 County Fire Protection District County YOY %Δ Fire YOY %Δ Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat General Fund reserves 1.For FY 2021-22, total General Fund revenues were $1.94 billion, and the total fund balance was $710.2 million, or 36.5% of total General Fund revenue 2.Of the $710.2 million: a.$389.9 million was unassigned –20.0% of total General Fund Revenues b.$320.3 million was assigned, committed, restricted or nonspendable 9 7.2% 9.4% 11.0% 13.2% 16.5%17.9%16.6% 20.1%20.5%21.2%20.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% FY11-12 FY12-13 FY13-14 FY14-15 FY15-16 FY16-17 FY17-18 FY18-19 FY19-20 FY20-21 FY21-22 Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Pension funding County Net Pension Liability as of 12/31/2021 was $854.6 million, down from $859.3M the prior year CCCERA lowered its investment earnings assumption from 7.00% to 6.75% in calendar year 2022 Final Pension Obligation Bond payment was made June,2022 10 Actuarial Valuation Date Total CCCERA Net Liability Funded Ratio County Net Liability Fire Protection District Net Liability 2009 $1,024,673 83.8%$727,578 $68,294 2010 1,312,215 80.3%918,919 104,750 2011 1,488,593 78.5%1,037,535 130,737 2012 2,279,059 70.6% 1,591,610 228,950 2013 1,823,681 76.4%1,260,363 180,209 2014 1,469,942 81.7%1,003,749 151,686 2015 1,311,823 84.5%879,610 154,708 2016 1,187,437 86.5%776,396 143,193 2017 1,059,356 88.5%689,426 131,765 2018 1,031,966 89.3%677,735 123,353 2019 947,054 90.6%607,938 132,554 2020 859,345 91.8%557,373 121,270 2021 854,561 92.4%588,842 147,987 Contra Costa County Employees Retirement Association Pension Funding Status (Thousands) Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Other Post Employment Benefits (OPEB) Trust Pre-funding Status 1.The County established an OPEB Trust in 2008 and began pre-funding benefits that same year 2.The funded ratio is at 49.7% as of the most recent valuation date (6/30/2022) and exceeds the minimum goal of 44% 11 Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Mid-year budget status 12 Mid-Year 22-23 Mid-Year 21-22 Mid-Year 20-21 Mid-Year 19-20 Mid-Year 18-19 ALL FUNDS Budget Actual Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Expenditures $4,706,263,454 $1,882,453,578 40%38%44%41%41% Revenues $4,415,542,569 $1,850,442,319 42%43%45%39%44% GENERAL FUND Budget Actual Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent Expenditures $2,240,207,659 $913,174,826 41%37%43%41%41% Revenues $2,056,865,073 $1,013,194,744 49%45%46%37%41% Wages & Benefits $1,078,093,738 $480,481,668 45%45%45%46%46% Services & Supplies $811,948,932 $284,697,055 35%35%43%37%39% Other Charges $339,923,000 $168,717,661 50%33%46%40%44% Fixed Assets $148,782,110 $19,628,031 13%10%25%24%23% Inter-departmental Charges ($149,535,121)($40,350,283)27%42%44%41%46% Contingencies $10,995,000 $694 Total Expenses $2,240,207,659 $913,174,826 41%37%41%41%41% Taxes $607,400,000 $433,419,918 71%61%62%64%64% License, Permits, Franchises $12,164,000 $3,433,702 28%28%23%30%32% Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties $23,943,000 $1,809,946 8%9%5%8%11% Use of Money & Property $9,578,000 $10,246,234 107%31%42%29%83% Federal/State Assistance $810,962,073 $410,176,089 51%44%50%28%37% Charges for Current Services $190,085,000 $78,866,569 41%48%44%32%38% Other Revenue $402,733,000 $75,242,286 19%20%23%27%23% Total Revenues $2,056,865,073 $1,013,194,744 49%45%46%37%41% Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Measure X financials 13 Revenue projections through FY22-23 Budget Actuals/Projection FY20-21 24,078,616$ 27,659,018$ FY21-22 104,000,000$ 117,721,524$ FY22-23 107,000,000$ 120,155,659$ Total 235,078,616$ 265,536,201$ Measure X allocations through FY23-24 with COLA Reserve 20,000,000$ One-time 136,895,200$ FY22-23 78,150,000$ FY23-24 112,312,500$ 347,357,700$ Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Contra Costa Fire Protection District 1.District consolidations a.Annexed East Contra Costa Fire Protection District effective 7/1/22. Service expansion through the construction of Fire Station 51 (Brentwood) and construction/staffing of Fire Station 54 (Brentwood). b.Established fire protection services contract with City of Pinole effective 1/1/23, with services beginning and Fire Station 74 reopening 3/1/23 2.Fire Station Construction a.Fire Station 86 (Bay Point) opened in August 2022 b.Fire Stations 9 (Pacheco), 51 (Brentwood), and 54 (Downtown Brentwood) are in the planning/pre-construction phase 3.CCCFPD Measure X ongoing funding a.$3.65 million to staff a second unit at Fire Station 81 (downtown Antioch). b.$3.65 million to staff Fire Station 54 (Downtown Brentwood) c.Wildland Fire Mitigation and Fuel Reduction –$2.6 million annually for a year-round hand crew program; $2.1 million annually for Fuels Reduction Projects throughout high fire hazard zones countywide. d.$2.1 million to staff an additional fire station in the City of Pinole. 14 Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Contra Costa Regional Medical Center •Contra Costa Regional Medical Center (CCRMC) is a 164-bed acute care public hospital owned and operated by the County. It includes 10 geographically dispersed Federally Qualified Health care centers, which are licensed as outpatient departments of the hospital, and provide over 500,000 physician visits per year. •CCRMC is financially supported primarily with Fee for Service and Health Plan Medi-Cal revenues, with the County General Fund subsidizing approximately 15% of CCRMC’s budget. •The County General Fund Subsidy has been $73.2 million since FY20-21 and remains consistent for FY23-24. •No change in the General Fund Subsidy is anticipated for the next three fiscal years. •Measure X funding will provide $42 million in annual program support. •Pandemic costs have been offset with one-time Federal funding such as CARES, ARPA and FEMA. 15 Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat COVID-19 Major Funding Sources 16 Revenue Program Allocation Coronavirus Relief Fund $227,827,652 ARPA Fiscal Recovery Fund 224,058,903 Emergency Rental Assistance Program 220,174,579 FEMA Public Assistance Program (Estimate)77,964,320 Total $750,025,454 Key Takeaways: •Four revenue drivers impact vast majority the County’s cost recovery •Contra Costa receiving significant Federal assistance, including the cities! •County responsible for pandemic response, including associated costs •All COVID-19 revenue sources are one-time only funds! Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat COVID-19 FEMA Cost Recovery Update 17 Claim Category Estimate Claimed Obligated Received Non-Congregate Shelter $32,414,836 $32,414,836 $0 $0 COVID-19 Testing 20,728,141 20,728,141 0 0 Incremental Cleaning 12,688,588 12,688,588 0 0 Great Plates 6,415,043 6,415,043 6,415,043 6,415,043 General Materials (PPE, Other)3,579,956 3,579,956 0 0 Consultant (Ernst & Young)*1,500,000 0 0 0 Vaccination (Fire Mutual Aid)637,756 637,756 0 0 Total $77,964,320 $76,464,320 $6,415,043 $6,415,043 What’s it mean?: •FEMA reimbursement process cumbersome and could take years before reimbursement is received (typically 24-36 months, but likely longer); •The County General Fund is advancing the vast majority of the $78 million in FEMA eligible costs until reimbursement is received -this figure has stabilized with all COVID related claims submitted through June 30, 2022; •ARPA CSLFRF funds eligible to backfill any reduced claim amounts determined by FEMA. * Consultant costs are claimed at conclusion of cost recovery period established by FEMA Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Significant FEMA Cost Recovery Issue Non-Congregate Sheltering –“Project Roomkey” 18 FEMA Region IX pursuing a definition change of “asymptomatic”, requiring that an “asymptomatic, high risk” individual receiving NCS shelter services must have been COVID-19 positive Proposed change results in close to 90% of County claimable costs becoming ineligible -$29 million for Contra Costa County What are we doing about it? •Board Chair sent letter to FEMA Administrator Criswell on 12/21/22; •Contra Costa establishing a coalition of impacted counties to oppose the change; •Providing leadership to industry groups such as CACE, CSAC, NACo and GFOA about the issue. Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat American Rescue Plan Act Update 19 ARPA -CSLFRF Allocation Projected Expenditures, thru 6/30/24 FY 2021/22 FY 2022/23 FY 2023/24 Total Funding Sources:$ 112,029,452 $ 112,029,452 $0 $224,058,903 Funding Uses: Health Services (COVID-19)79,214,397 60,000,000 23,000,000 162,214,397 Pandemic Service Relief Payment 0 24,300,111 0 24,300,111 Total Claimed $ 79,214,397 $ 84,300,111 $ 23,000,000 $186,514,508 Fund Balance $ 37,544,395 What’s it mean?: •Projected FY 2022/23 expenditures are $84.3 million, including $60 million to HSD and $24.3 million to County departments for PSRP payments; •Based on current allocations authorized by the Board through June 30, 2024, $37.5 million remains unallocated. Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat American Rescue Plan Act Options for Board Consideration 20 The FEMA Non-Congregate Shelter (NCS) definition change issue will likely take significant time and effort to resolve; The County’s maximum exposure to NCS claims is $32.4 million and $37.5 million of ARPA CSLFRF funding remains unallocated; Based on this information, the Board should consider the following options for remaining ARPA CSLFRF funds: •Continue to reserve the remaining $37.5 million of ARPA CSLFRF funding until the issues around FEMA NCS claims are clarified; or •Allocate up to $5 million of ARPA CSLFRF funding and continue to reserve approximately $32.5 million of ARPA CSLFRF funding until the issues around FEMA NCS claims are clarified; Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Reasons for continuing concern 1.Budgeted expenditures are growing faster than revenues a.Negotiated employee wage increases of 5% or more over multiple years b.Persistent high inflation increasing the costs of goods and services c.State budget deficit d.Higher interest rates are reducing real estate transactions and associated property tax revenue growth e.Workers Compensation Trust Fund f.General Liability and Insurance Costs 2.Risk of recession and further slowing of the economy 3.Needed capital investments for aging facilities 4.Obsolete Technology a.Significant needs countywide for new hardware and cybersecurity b.Finance System replacement in process, and Tax System replacement still needed 5.Increasing costs for County Hospital, Clinics, and Health Plan 21 Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat FY23-24 Budget Hearings 1.Hearing dates 1.Recommended Budget –April 25, 2023 2.Budget Adoption –May 23, 2023 2.Format 1.County Administrator –Budget overview 2.Department Presentations 3.Public Comment 4.Board Discussion / Action 22 Board of Supervisors –2023 Retreat Budget Development -Recommendations 1.ACCEPT report on Budget and Key Issues for FY23-24 and beyond; 2.PROVIDE DIRECTION on a reserve policy for unallocated ARPA CSLFRF funds pending further information related to the County’s FEMA NCS claims from options below: •Continue to reserve the remaining $37.5 million of ARPA CSLFRF funding until the issues around FEMA NCS claims are clarified; OR •Allocate up to $5 million of ARPA CSLFRF funding and continue to reserve approximately $32.5 million of ARPA CSLFRF funding until the issues around FEMA NCS claims are clarified. 23 RECOMMENDATION(S): ACCEPT report on budget development key drivers and considerations for FY23-24 and beyond. FISCAL IMPACT: This report is for informational purposes only. No fiscal impact. BACKGROUND: Attached is the report on County Budget Development - Key Drivers and Considerations. APPROVE OTHER RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD COMMITTEE Action of Board On: 01/24/2023 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER Clerks Notes: VOTE OF SUPERVISORS AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor Diane Burgis, District III Supervisor Ken Carlson, District IV Supervisor Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor Contact: Adam Nguyen, County Finance Director (925) 665-2048 I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown. ATTESTED: January 24, 2023 Monica Nino, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors By: , Deputy cc: D.2 To:Board of Supervisors From:Monica Nino, County Administrator Date:January 24, 2023 Contra Costa County Subject:Budget and Key Issues for FY23-24 and beyond CLERK'S ADDENDUM Public comments: John, Mariana, Roxanne, Dan, Caller 6770, Jan, Liz, Rachel, Ruth. ATTACHMENTS CAO Budget Development presentation Budget Justice Coalition Presentation Bay Area Equity Atlas Presentation Board of Supervisors Annual Retreat 2023 January 24, 2023 1 Agenda•Major Projects completed 2022 •Mod M/C mental health and ADA upgrades •20 Year Capital Facilities Master Plan (CFMP) •Major Projects continuing 2023 •ADR Project •WRTH Project •CFMP first 5 year Implementation Plan •Changes to Surplus Lands Act 2 Major Projects Completed in 2022 3 Modules M and C in Martinez Detention Facility Module M •5 Mental Health Beds •24 Special Services Beds Module C •Complete plumbing retro fit •Create 4 ADA compliant cells/1 ADA compliant shower Module M before/during 4 Module M Now 5 20 Year Capital Facilities Master Plan (CFMP) 6 Highlights •Complete Facilities Condition Assessment of 273 facilities and 3.75 million Gross Square Feet (GSF) •20 Year plan and forecast of both rehabilitation and new construction needed •Plan for 4 new centralized locations for service hubs across the county •Consolidation into new hubs will allow for potential housing opportunities Major Projects Underway in 2023 7 Administration Demolition and Redevelopment (ADR) •Demolition of 651 Pine Street complex –Completed •3 Story County Building -parking on ground floor with 2 floors office above •Public plaza area •City of Martinez will vacate Pine Street between Main and Escobar •Expected occupancy April 2024 West County Reentry, Treatment and Housing Facility (WRTH) •288 general population beds –96 of which are medical/mental health treatment beds •Full medical clinic in the facility •Expected occupancy January 2025 ADR demo in 2022 8 Major Projects Update 9 West County Reentry, Treatment and Housing (WRTH) •Project underway •Begin construction by May, 2023 •Project completion expected January, 2025 5-Year Implementation Overview The first five years will be focused on creating a new East County Service Center, densifying existing facilities for anticipated headcount growth, and renovating buildings in the worst condition. 17% of the County’s capital expenses will be incurred between Years 1-5. 10 Key Actions » Construct new East County Service Center (est $60 million) » Construct central County storage facility at Waterbird complex (est $10 million) »Initiate FCI-related improvements to facilities with FCI scores of 0.5+. » Begin tenant improvements to existing facilities that will be maintained in the portfolio for 20+ years, since most facilities haven’t undergone recent improvements. » Refresh existing facilities that will be disposed in 6-20 years. Historically we have budgeted approximately $15 million per year for the last three items Capital Budget Fiscal Year (FY) 23-24 11 •Capital requests from Departments •Evaluated and prioritized against long term planning in CFMP•Total requested amount to be determined once requests are received later in budget development •Capital spending from CFMP •Targeted towards facilities to be retained in CFMP•Targeted toward facilities with poor facilities condition scores•Historical amount approximately $15 million annually•Planning and development for new construction from CFMP •Due diligence/initial site planning for East County Service Hub site •Suitability analysis for Delta Fair, Antioch & Technology Way, Brentwood alternatives•Site search/acquisition for West County Service Hub•Estimate $1.5 million for this work this Fiscal Year Surplus Lands Act AB1486 key changes •The California Surplus Lands Act requires local agencies disposing of surplus land to prioritize affordable housing, open space and school use. The State’s oversight body is the Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD). •Prior to taking any action to dispose of County land, the Board must declare, based on written findings, the land to be “surplus land” or “exempt surplus land.” •If land is declared “exempt surplus land,” the County must send HCD a copy of the written determination at least 30 days before disposing of the land (per HCD guidelines). •If land is declared “surplus land,” the County must send a “notice of availability” to HCD, as well as specified public agencies and nonprofits, giving recipients 60 days to respond with their interest. 12 Surplus Lands Act AB1486 key changes •If any interest expressed, the County must engage in good faith negotiations for not less than 90 days. •In the selection process, priority is to be given to affordable housing development and the number of affordable units. •A post negotiation report must be sent to HCD. •Deed restriction required on sale, if 10 plus units developed 15% must be affordable •Penalties if improper disposal-30% purchase price 1st time, 50% thereafter –60 day cure and correct period 13 Questions 14 RECOMMENDATION(S): ACCEPT report on Capital Projects. FISCAL IMPACT: There is no fiscal impact. The report is for information only. BACKGROUND: See attached report. APPROVE OTHER RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD COMMITTEE Action of Board On: 01/24/2023 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER Clerks Notes: VOTE OF SUPERVISORS AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor Diane Burgis, District III Supervisor Ken Carlson, District IV Supervisor Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor Contact: Eric Angstadt; 925-655-2042 I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown. ATTESTED: January 24, 2023 Monica Nino, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors By: , Deputy cc: D.3 To:Board of Supervisors From:Monica Nino, County Administrator Date:January 24, 2023 Contra Costa County Subject:Capitol Projects Report CLERK'S ADDENDUM No comments. ATTACHMENTS Capital Projects Updates Presentation Anna Roth, CEO Contra Costa Health January 24, 2023 Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors 2023 Annual Retreat 2023 will be a year of sweeping change in health care Reforms in both payment and care delivery models will transform almost every aspect of our system Our uniquely integrated system is well positioned to navigate the challenges ahead 3 2023 PRIORITY AREAS OF FOCUS •COVID Transition •California Advancing and Innovating Medi-Cal (CalAIM) •Single Plan Model (Medi-Cal) •Health Delivery System •Housing/Homelessness •Equity 4 COVID TRANSITION Embed COVID response into day -to -day operations of Contra Costa Health 5 COVID TRANSITION Opportunities Challenges •Integrate lessons learned and transition plan into daily operations •Laser focus on equity •Partner with all health systems to ensure ongoing access •Continued unpredictability - new variants, surges in disease •Maintain infrastructure and needed response as funding decreases 6 ​California Advancing and​Innovating Medi-Cal (CalAIM) The transformation of our health system to be more responsive, equitable and outcome focused by matching the right patients to the right services at the right time 7 CalAIM Opportunities Challenges •Expands Medi-Cal scope of services •Addresses and integrates social needs, behavioral health and physical health •Focused on those with the most complex needs o People with Medicare/Medi-Cal o Justice-involved o Behavioral health o Foster youth o Medically complex o Elders/long-term care o Unhoused •Requires significant transformation •Managed care •Delivery system •Care coordination •Payment structures •Involves entire health system as well as social services •Workforce •Transferring financial risk to local plan •IT infrastructure 8 CCHP- Single Plan Model for Medi-Cal Managed Care Contra Costa County will transition from a Medi-Cal two plan model to a single plan model working with those most vulnerable in the community 9 SINGLE PLAN MODEL Opportunities Challenges •Only County that owns and operates a Local Initiative Medi-Cal Health Plan •CCHP will be the county’s primary/single Medi-Cal provider as of January 2024 •Expansion of members and services –approx. 240 K and anticipated growth in 2024 •Managed care for all Medi-Cal members •Behavioral Health has always been a single plan model •Highly regulated, rigid operational environment •Expansion requires broader network and stronger infrastructure o Providers including long term care o Auxiliary workforce expansion o Recruitment & retention o Population health management and accountability 10 DELIVERY SYSTEM Provide high quality, equitable, accessible, comprehensive and timely health care 11 DELIVERY SYSTEM Opportunities Challenges •Integration of behavioral health and physical health care •Telehealth expansion •Capital projects –CCRMC and BH and Housing and Detention •Expansion of providers –CBOs, other health systems, social services •Continuum -prevention, outpatient/inpatient, re-entry into the community •Workforce •Transforming infrastructure •Ensuring sustainability •Because of highly integrated and contracted nature of our system, difficult to understand county involvement (accountable for all care provided) 12 HOUSING AND HOMELESS SERVICES Work across the region to ensure our growing homeless populations have the services,support and opportunities needed to thrive and secure stable housing 13 Homeless Services Opportunities Challenges •Convene government partners across the region to align strategies, policies and funding •Multi-sector call to action •Increased revenue •Services –CARE Court, CORE, street medicine and clinics •Disproportionate growth in the East Bay •Disconnected funding and planning •Complex network, funding & policies •Affordability 14 EQUITY Without equity, there can be no sustainable health Embed equity in everything we do, every program we launch & every interaction we have with our community and partners 15 EQUITY Opportunities Challenges •Support the Office for Racial Equity and Social Justice •A3 •PRIDE initiative •Women's health •Historical discrimination of groups and now focus •Massive, complex & broad •Lack of common nomenclature •Nascent infrastructure •No agreed upon metrics 16 •Central themes across our 2023 priorities •Equity •Quality •Integration •We will advance equity, improve health outcomes and enhance quality of life 17 Discussion •Anna Roth,Contra Costa Health CEO •Lavonna Martin, Deputy Health Director •Sharron Mackey, CCHP CEO •Suzanne Tavano, Behavioral Health Director •Samir Shah, CCRMC CEO RECOMMENDATION(S): ACCEPT report from the Health Services Department. FISCAL IMPACT: No fiscal impact. The report is for informational purposes only. BACKGROUND: See attached report. APPROVE OTHER RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD COMMITTEE Action of Board On: 01/24/2023 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER Clerks Notes: VOTE OF SUPERVISORS AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor Diane Burgis, District III Supervisor Ken Carlson, District IV Supervisor Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor Contact: Adam Nguyen, County Finance Director (925) 665-2047 I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown. ATTESTED: January 24, 2023 Monica Nino, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors By: , Deputy cc: D.4 To:Board of Supervisors From:Monica Nino, County Administrator Date:January 24, 2023 Contra Costa County Subject:Health Services update CLERK'S ADDENDUM Public comment: Caller 6770 ATTACHMENTS Health Services Department updates D.9 THE BOARD OF SUPERVISORS OF CONTRA COSTA COUNTY, CALIFORNIA and for Special Districts, Agencies and Authorities Governed by the .Board Adopted this Resolution on 09/24/2019 by the following vote: AYE: John Gioia Candace Andersen EJ Diane Burgis Karen Mitchoff Federal D. Glover NO: [[] ABSENT: [LJ ABSTAIN:[Lj RECUSE: [ZJ ~~·.,, ::. -. ·.:-l ~ .-::; ' ,.,, · .. ''"" .: .. ,, ...... -/ Resolution No. 2019/500 IN THE MATTER OF UPDATING THE RULES OF PROCEDURES FOR BOARD OF SUPERVISORS MEETINGS TO PERMIT EARLIER ELECTION OF NEW YEAR OFFICERS WHEREAS the Board of Supervisors, each calendar year, reorganizes, electing a chairperson and vice chairperson, approving committee assignments, and defining its goals for the next 12 months; and WHEREAS, the annual reorganization requires many weeks of advance planning; and WHEREAS, the early selection of officers of the Board of Supervisors would facilitate a seamless transition of leadership at the time of reorganization; and ' WHEREAS it has at times been necessary for a board member to participate in a board meeting from a remote location; and WHEREAS certain rules of conduct are necessary to preserve the orderly conduct of board meetings; NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED THAT: 1. Rule 3 of the Rules of Procedures for Board . of Supervisors Meetings is hereby modified to read, "The Organization Meeting of the Board shall be held on its first regular meeting in January of each year, at which time the new year chair and vice chair will assume their offic(!s." 2. Rule 6.2 of the Rules of Procedures for Board of Supervisors Meetings is hereby modified to read, "The election of officers of the Board of Supervisors shall occur on or about the last meeting in September for the ensuing year beginning on January 1. Officers shall serve until December 31 or until the selection of their successors, whichever occurs later." Rule 6.3 is deleted and Rule 6.4 is renumbered to 6.3. 3. New Rule 14 regarding Participation of Supervisors by Teleconference is added. 4. Old Rule 14 is renumbered to Rule 15 -Disruption of Meeting. Rule 15 is hereby modified to read, "For the purpose of insuring the orderly conduct of the Board of Supervisors meeting, no whistles, horns, drums, noise makers, megaphones, air horns, bullhorns, or other amplified devices are allowed inside the County Administration Building while the meeting is in session. If any meeting is willfully interrupted by a group or groups of persons so that the orderly conduct . of the meeting becomes infeasible and order cannot be restored by the removal of individuals who are willfully interrupting the meeting, the Chair may order the meeting room cleared, as authorized by law (Gov. Code,§ 54957.9), recess the meeting, adjourn the meeting." 5. The updated Rules of Procedures for Board of Supervisors Meetings is adopted as in Attachment A. 6. This Resolution supersedes and replaces Resolution No. 2019/81 adopted on March 12, 2019. Contact: Supervisor John Gioia (510) 231-8686 I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown. 1 RESOLUTION NO. 2019/500 RULES OF PROCEDURES FOR BOARD OF SUPERVISORS MEETINGS POLICY It is the policy of the Board of Supervisors to hold public meetings in accordance with the requirements of the Ralph M. Brown Act and all other applicable governing legislation. The Board strives to govern and work together in an effective, efficient, ethical and courteous manner in the highest tradition of public service and in the best interests of the County of Contra Costa and its residents. This resolution supersedes Resolution No. 2015/55. PROCEDURE GENERAL PROVISIONS Rule 1. Applicability of Rules 1.1 These Rules of Procedure (“Rules”) are adopted pursuant to Government Code Section 25003. The rules apply to the Board of Supervisors of the County of Contra Costa whether sitting as the Board of Supervisors of the County or as the governing body of any other district, authority, or board. 1.2 The Rules are deemed to be procedural only. Except as otherwise provided by law, the failure to strictly observe application of the Rules shall not affect the jurisdiction of the Board or invalidate any action taken at a meeting that is otherwise held in conformity with law. 1.3 Except as otherwise provided by law, these Rules, or any one of them, may be suspended by order of the Chair and will be deemed suspended by actions taken by or with the consent of the Chair or a majority of the Board members. Rule 2. Definitions 2.1 “Board” means the Board of Supervisors of the County of Contra Costa, whether sitting as the Board of Supervisors of the County or as the governing body of any other district, authority or board; 2.2 “Chair” and “Vice Chair” mean the Board members elected to those respective offices. “Chair” also means the presiding officer acting in the absence of the elected Chair. 2.3 “Clerk” means the Clerk of the Board or a Deputy Clerk of the Board; 2.4 “County Counsel” means the Board’s attorney, appointed pursuant to Ordinance Code section 24-12.002. 2 RESOLUTION NO. 2019/500 MEETINGS Rule 3. Organization Meeting The Organization Meeting of the Board shall be held on its first regular meeting in January of each year, at which time the new year chair and vice chair will assume their offices. Rule 4. Regular Meetings 4.1 All regular meetings shall be held by the Board, in all its capacities, in its chambers in the Contra Costa County Administration Building, at 651 Pine Street, Martinez, California. Regular meetings shall commence at 9:00 a.m., or as otherwise prescribed by the Chair. Regular meetings generally shall be held on every Tuesday of the month. However, the Board of Supervisors shall not be required to hold a regular meeting (1) on any Tuesday that is the fifth Tuesday of a calendar month, (2) on any Tuesday following a Monday holiday; (3) that is canceled pursuant to the annual calendar adopted by the Board or (4) that is canceled by the Chair when no quorum is expected to be present. 4.2 Holidays, fifth Tuesdays, and periodic breaks, which result in a canceled meeting, will be determined by the Board and posted annually. Rule 5. Absence of a Quorum, Adjournment 5.1 In the absence of a quorum, the remaining members or (if no member is present) the Clerk may adjourn the meeting to another date and time in accordance with Government Code Section 54955 and shall post a Notice of Adjournment. 5.2 In the event a Supervisor leaves the hearing room, momentarily causing a lack of quorum, he or she should notify the Chair of his or her intended absence, and the Chair may call a recess. ELECTION, POWERS AND DUTIES OF CHAIR AND VICE CHAIR Rule 6. Annual Selection of Chair and Vice Chair, and Committee Assignments 6.1 On or before December 1 of each year, on a form provided by the Clerk of the Board, each Board member will submit to the Clerk of the Board their individual preference for appointment to committees, boards and commissions. During the month of December, the Clerk of the Board will ask the Board to acknowledge receipt of the preference forms as a Board action item on a public agenda. 6.2 The election of officers of the Board of Supervisors shall occur on or about the last meeting in September for the ensuing year beginning on January 1. Officers shall serve until December 31 or until the selection of their successors, whichever occurs later." 3 RESOLUTION NO. 2019/500 6.3 At its Organization Meeting, or thereafter, the incoming/new Chair of the Board will submit for approval by the full Board, the Chair’s final recommendations for Board assignments to the local, regional and statewide committees, boards and commissions, in accordance with the Board’s March 21, 2000 policy on Board Member Committee Assignments, as may be amended from time to time. Rule 7. Powers and Duties of Chair The Chair shall serve as presiding officer of the Board, rule on questions of procedure, nominate for Board approval representatives to Board committees whose appointment is not otherwise provided for, sign resolutions, ordinances, contracts, leases and other official documents approved by the Board, preserve order and decorum, and decide all questions of order. The Chair may consult with County Counsel in making such rulings. Decisions of the Chair may be overruled by a majority vote of the Board of Supervisors. Rule 8. Powers and Duties of the Vice-Chair The Vice-Chair shall have and exercise all powers and duties of the Chair at the meetings at which the Chair is absent. Rule 9. Selection of a Chair Pro Tempore If neither the Chair nor the Vice-Chair is present at a Board meeting, the Board members present shall select one of their members to act as the Chair Pro Tempore. The Chair Pro Tempore shall have and exercise all the powers and duties of the Chair for that particular meeting only. ORDER AND CONDUCT OF BUSINESS Rule 10. Order of Business The order of business at each regular meeting, except for such times as may be set apart for consideration of special items (or as otherwise prescribed by the Chair), shall be as follows: 10.1 Call to Order. The presiding officer initiates the proceedings by bringing the meeting to order. 10.2 Roll Call. The Clerk calls the roll and records by name all members present or absent. During the course of the meeting the Clerk records the arrival of any member listed as absent and the departure of any member listed as present. 10.3 Inspirational Thought. The Board hears an inspirational thought as set forth on the agenda. 10.4 Pledge of Allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America. The Chair designates a person to lead those present in reciting the Pledge. 4 RESOLUTION NO. 2019/500 10.5 Agenda Review. The Chair inquires whether Board members or the County Administrator wish to make any agenda revisions or request any items to be continued or removed from the Consent agenda. 10.6 Added Items. The Board may take action on items of business not appearing on the posted agenda under any of the following circumstances: 10.6.1 Upon a determination by a majority vote that an emergency situation exists, as defined in Government Code Section 54956.5; 10.6.2 Upon a determination by a two-thirds vote, or, if fewer than two-thirds of the members are present, by unanimous vote of those members present, that there is a need to take immediate action and that the need for action came to the attention of the County subsequent to the agenda being posted; 10.6.3 The item was posted for a prior meeting of the Board occurring not more than five calendar days prior to the date action is taken on the item, and at the prior meeting the item was continued to the meeting at which action is being taken. 10.7 Consent Agenda Items. Consent agenda items are routine in nature and do not require individual consideration. All consent items are approved by a single vote as recommended without discussion unless an item is removed and continued or considered during the regular agenda for separate action at the request of a Board member, staff member, or a member of the public. 10.8 Presentations. Each presentation will last no more than five minutes, unless this time is extended by the Chair. A maximum of three presentations may be scheduled at each meeting except that the Chair may authorize an additional presentation(s). The subject of the presentations should be of countywide interest and significance. 10.9 Public Comment. Public Comment is that period of time set aside for members of the public to address the Board on items of County business not listed on the agenda (“off-agenda”). The Public Comment item shall be deemed to constitute the opportunity for members of the public to address the Board in compliance with Government Code Section 54954.3. See Rule 11.1 and 11.2. 10.10 Discussion Items. Discussion items include items previously removed from the consent calendar. 10.11 Closed Session. Closed session discussion items are intended to be heard at the specified time(s) but may be heard earlier or later, in the discretion of the Chair. 10.12 Adjournment. Any Board member may request that the meeting be adjourned in 5 RESOLUTION NO. 2019/500 memory of a recently deceased person. Rule 11. Conduct of Meetings 11.1 Addressing the Board—General 11.1.1 Before the meeting, or during the meeting before the agenda item to be addressed, a person wishing to address the Board should fill out a yellow speaker card and deposit it in the box near the podium. 11.1.2 When called upon, the person should come to the podium, state his or her name for the record, and, if speaking for an organization or other group, identify the organization or group represented. 11.1.3 All remarks should be addressed to the Board as a whole, not to individual members, to the staff, or to the audience. Each person speaking from the floor shall obtain permission from the Chair. 11.1.4 Questions, if any, should be addressed to the Chair, who will determine whether or by whom an answer will be provided. 11.1.5 Each speaker will have three minutes. This time may be extended or reduced, in the discretion of the Chair. 11.1.6 All speakers, especially those who anticipate making oral presentations or comments exceeding three minutes, are encouraged to submit comments in writing, in advance, to the Clerk for distribution to the Board and other interested parties at the earliest feasible time before the meeting, but no later than 8:00 a.m. on the day of the meeting. Written comments may be submitted either by mail or via email: clerkoftheboard@cob.cccounty.us. The Board requests that a person providing written materials to the Board during a meeting submit an original and 10 copies. Such written comments will be distributed to members of the Board and staff. 11.1.7 In order to maintain a public meeting environment conducive to receiving public testimony from all sides of any issue, it is the Board’s policy that the audience will be discouraged from engaging in audible or emotional displays of support or opposition to testimony provided. Behavior such as clapping, booing, hissing, and cheering can create an intimidating environment for people interested in giving public testimony and can unnecessarily lengthen Board meetings. Consequently, such behavior is discouraged. 11.1.8 Speakers should not present the same or substantially the same items or argument to the Board as presented by earlier speakers, or be profane in presenting their oral comments. 11.1.9 In order to expedite matters and to avoid repetitious presentations, 6 RESOLUTION NO. 2019/500 whenever any group of persons wishes to address the Board on the same subject matter, the Chair may request that a spokesperson be chosen by the group to comment on its behalf. 11.1.10 To minimize distractions during public meetings, all personal communication devices, such as mobile phones and pagers, will be turned off or put in a non-audible mode during Board meetings. 11.1.11 Any of the foregoing rules may be waived by the Chair or by a majority vote of the Board members present when it is deemed that there is good cause to do so, based upon the particular facts and circumstances involved. 11.1.12 The rules set forth above are not exclusive and do not limit the inherent power and general legal authority of the Board, or of its presiding officer, to govern the conduct of Board meetings as may be considered appropriate from time to time or in particular circumstances for purposes of orderly and effective conduct of the affairs of the County. 11.2 Addressing the Board—Public Comment Comments under Public Comment are limited to subjects within the subject matter jurisdiction of the County but not on the agenda. Such comments are limited to no more than three minutes per speaker. If numerous persons wish to make comments, the Chair may limit the Public Comment period to a specific amount of time, e.g. 30 minutes total for all speakers, and/or may reduce the time limit per speaker, e.g. 2 minutes per speaker. Speakers are encouraged to submit written comments, either by mail or via email: clerkoftheboard@cob.cccounty.us. Written comments must be received by the Clerk of the Board before 8:00 a.m. on the day of the meeting in order to be considered at the meeting. 11.3 Addressing the Board—Items Removed from Consent Calendar Members of the public addressing the Board in connection with more than one item that has been removed from consent calendar at a single meeting are limited to a cumulative total of not to exceed 12 minutes for all of their oral presentations at such meeting, unless otherwise allowed by the Chair. The purpose of this provision is to ensure that all members of the public who wish to speak during a meeting have an opportunity to do so and to permit the effective and orderly conduct of the County’s business. 11.4 Addressing the Board―Public Hearings 11.4.1 Any member of the public wishing to address the Board orally on a public hearing on the Board agenda may do so before or during the hearing, or as otherwise specified by the Chair. 11.4.2 Any person desiring to have a hearing transcribed by a stenographic 7 RESOLUTION NO. 2019/500 reporter at his or her own expense may do so, provided that he or she consults the Clerk to arrange facilities for such reporting prior to commencement of the hearing and advises the Clerk of the full name, business address, and telephone number of the reporter being used. 11.5 Use of Acronyms The Board discourages the use of acronyms, abbreviations, and industry-specific language in its meetings and written materials. Rule 12. Public Hearings for Planning and Zoning Matters―(Land Use Matters) 12.1 Order of Procedure Unless the Chair in his or her discretion directs otherwise, the order for presentation of testimony on particular land use items shall be as follows: 12.1.1 Presentation by staff. 12.1.2 Documents. The Chair acknowledges receipt of any documents offered as evidence and filed with the Clerk before the hearing. 12.1.3 First Presentation. If the item is presented for Board approval (e.g., rezoning, development plan), the first presentation is by the project applicant, followed by public testimony. If the item is an appeal from a decision of a lower body (e.g., subdivision, land use permit), the first presentation is by the appellant, followed by the presentation by the project applicant. This presentation (or each presentation, if the item is an appeal) shall not exceed 10 minutes or the approximate length of the staff presentation, whichever is greater. 12.1.4 Public testimony. Each speaker shall have no more than three minutes. 12.1.5 Rebuttal. A rebuttal not exceeding five minutes may be made by the person making the first presentation. 12.1.6 Closing comments by staff. 12.1.7 Board discussion and decision. 12.2 Conduct of Hearings 12.2.1 Witnesses’ Testimony. Witnesses will not be sworn. 12.2.2 Rules of Evidence. The hearing will not be conducted according to technical judicial rules of evidence. Any relevant evidence may be considered if it is the sort of evidence on which responsible persons are accustomed to rely in the 8 RESOLUTION NO. 2019/500 conduct of serious affairs. The Chair may exclude irrelevant or redundant testimony and may make such other rulings as may be necessary for the orderly conduct of the proceedings ensuring basic fairness and a full airing of the issues involved. 12.3 Exhibits. 12.3.1 Subject to paragraph 12.3.2, all exhibits, including documentary materials such as photographs, drawings, maps, charts, letters, petitions and other physical evidence, presented at a land use hearing shall be retained in the Board of Supervisors files as part of the record of the hearing. 12.3.2 Any staff exhibit (e.g., a general plan or area map) that has been or will be used in other land use hearings will be preserved by the Community Development Department for future reference. A notation indicating its location shall be made in the case file in any matter in which it has been used. 12.4 Questioning of Speakers and Staff. Any person desiring to direct a question to a speaker or staff member shall submit the question to the Chair, who shall determine whether the question is relevant to the subject of the hearing and whether or not it need be answered by the speaker or staff member. 12.5 Overriding Fairness. Notwithstanding the provisions of paragraph 12.1, the Board is committed to provide an applicant, appellant, or other person or entity with a substantial, direct property interest in an item, a full and fair hearing, based on the facts and circumstances of the particular matter, the nature and complexity of the particular issue, the number of persons wishing to be heard, and similar due process considerations. Toward this end, the Chair, in his or her discretion, may extend the time limits set forth in paragraph 12.1 and consider other procedural mechanisms. 12.6 Absent From Hearing. A Supervisor who was absent from all or part of a hearing may vote on the matter if the Supervisor states for the record that he or she has reviewed all evidence received during the absence and also states that he or she has either: (1) listened to the Clerk’s recording, (2) watched the video, or (3) read a complete transcript of the proceedings that occurred during his or her absence. 9 RESOLUTION NO. 2019/500 Rule 13. Nuisance Abatement Hearings A hearing on an appeal from the County Abatement Officer’s Notice and Order to Abate shall be held in accordance with the provisions of County Ordinance Code section 14-6.418, as well as with these Procedures. In the event of a conflict, the provisions of County Ordinance Code section 14- 6.418 shall prevail. Rule 14. Rules for Participating by Teleconference The Brown Act permits members of the Board of Supervisors to participate in Board meetings by teleconference, but only when certain legal requirements are met. (Gov. Code, § 53953 (b).) If these requirements are not met, then the Supervisor calling in cannot be counted as part of the quorum for the meeting, can only listen to the meeting, and cannot discuss any item or vote. If a Supervisor wishes to be able to discuss items and vote by telephone, then, in addition to the usual agenda posting requirements, the following must occur in advance of the meeting: 14.1. Quorum Required. The County Administrator must ensure that during the teleconference meeting, at least a quorum of the Board will participate from locations in the County. 14.2 Agenda Requirement - All Locations Must be Listed. Each telephone conference location and the meeting location must be shown on the agenda for the meeting. In addition, the agenda must provide an opportunity for members of the public to give public comment from each teleconference location. So, for example, if a Supervisor is participating at a Board Committee from his or her District Office, then the location for the meeting shown on the agenda would be, for example: 651 Pine Street Room 101, Martinez, CA, AND the address of the Supervisor's District Office. The Supervisor's Office would be considered a meeting location, and the public would be entitled to attend the meeting at that location. See Item 14.4 below. 14.3 Agenda Requirement - Posting. In addition to the usual posting agenda locations and County website, an agenda will be posted at each teleconference location 96 hours in advance of the meeting. The Supervisor participating from his/her District office shall post the Agenda at his/her office 96 hours in advance of the Board meeting. 14.4 Public Participation at Remote Location. Each teleconference location must be open and accessible to members of the public. Thus, if a Supervisor’s District Office is a teleconference location, it must be open to the public during the meeting. The Supervisor would need to have a speaker phone so that members of the public would be able to hear the meeting and address the Board directly by speaker phone from his/her office. 14.5 Roll Call Vote. All votes taken during a teleconference meeting must be by roll call. Rule 15. Disruption of Meeting For the purpose of insuring the orderly conduct of the Board of Supervisors meeting, no whistles, horns, drums, noise makers, megaphones, air horns, bullhorns, or other amplified devices are allowed inside the County Administration Building while the meeting is in session. If any meeting is willfully interrupted by a group or groups of persons so that the orderly conduct of the meeting 10 RESOLUTION NO. 2019/500 becomes infeasible and order cannot be restored by the removal of individuals who are willfully interrupting the meeting, the Chair may order the meeting room cleared, as authorized by law (Gov. Code, § 54957.9), recess the meeting, or adjourn the meeting RECOMMENDATION(S): Discuss potential updates to Board Operating Procedures. FISCAL IMPACT: No fiscal impact. BACKGROUND: See attached County Policy and Operating Procedures. APPROVE OTHER RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD COMMITTEE Action of Board On: 01/24/2023 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER Clerks Notes: VOTE OF SUPERVISORS AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor Diane Burgis, District III Supervisor Ken Carlson, District IV Supervisor Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor Contact: Adam Nguyen, County Finance Director (925) 665-2047 I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown. ATTESTED: January 24, 2023 Monica Nino, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors By: , Deputy cc: D.5 To:Board of Supervisors From:Monica Nino, County Administrator Date:January 24, 2023 Contra Costa County Subject:Policy and Procedures for meetings CLERK'S ADDENDUM Public comments: John, Caller 6770. ATTACHMENTS BOS Policy and Procedures Resolution No. 2019-500