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HomeMy WebLinkAboutMINUTES - 08122014 - D.3RECOMMENDATION(S): RECEIVE presentation from the Contra Costa Transportation Authority (Authority) on the 2014 Countywide Transportation Plan (CTP) update, PROVIDE preliminary comment to Authority staff on the process and CTP, and DIRECT County staff to work with the Transportation, Water and Infrastructure Committee (TWIC) to develop detailed comments for subsequent consideration by the Board of Supervisors. FISCAL IMPACT: No Impact. BACKGROUND: At the June 5, 2014 Transportation, Water, and Infrastructure Committee (TWI) meeting staff provided a report on the Authority's 2014 update to the Countywide Transportation Plan (CTP). The CTP is the primary planning document for the development of the transportation system over the next 30 years. This long range plan is comprised of projects, programs, policies and associated funding needs relative to the development and maintenance of the transportation system. The TWI Committee directed County staff to coordinate with the Authority to bring a presentation to the full Board of Supervisors on: APPROVE OTHER RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD COMMITTEE Action of Board On: 08/12/2014 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER Clerks Notes: VOTE OF SUPERVISORS AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor Mary N. Piepho, District III Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District IV Supervisor Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor Contact: John Cunningham, (925) 674-7833 I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown. ATTESTED: August 12, 2014 David Twa, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors By: June McHuen, Deputy cc: Julie Bueren, John Kopchik, Wendel Brunner D. 3 To:Board of Supervisors From:TRANSPORTATION, WATER & INFRASTRUCTURE COMMITTEE Date:August 12, 2014 Contra Costa County Subject:Presentation by the Contra Costa Transportation Authority on the 2014 Countywide Transportation Plan and Related Research BACKGROUND: (CONT'D) 1) The status of the CTP update, and 2) The research (interviews, telephone poll, etc.) that has been conducted in support of the CTP update and potential ballot measure. This discussion item responds to that direction. Subsequent to the June TWI Committee meeting, the Authority approved the release of the CTP 2014 Draft for review and comment (See Exhibit 1 – CTP Release.pdf). Comments are due by September 30, 2014. Authority staff will be present at the August 12, 2014 Board of Supervisors meeting to give a presentation on the CTP (See Exhibit 6 - CTP Presentation August 12.2014_BOS.pdf) and to respond to questions. Next Steps For the Board of Supervisors County staff will be discussing our internal review and comment process at the August 7, 2014 TWI Committee meeting. Staff recommendation will include formal County comments on the CTP being discussed at the September TWI Committee meeting and brought to the full Board of Supervisors for consideration in late September. Background on 2014 Countywide Transportation Plan The CTP is separated in to three volumes: Volume 1 - Draft 2014 Countywide Transportation Plan Executive Summary Attached (See Exhibit 2 – CTP ExecSumm.pdf) Full Document available here: http://ccta.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=1&clip_id=63&meta_id=4579 Volume 2 - Draft Action Plans from the five subregions All Action Plans compiled for viewing in one file: http://ccta.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=1&clip_id=63&meta_id=4580 Actions Plans separated out by subregions are available at the following links: West County - WCCTAC http://ccta.net/about/download/532b67db9e137.pdf Central County - TRANSPAC http://ccta.net/about/download/532b6766c5b4c.pdf East County - TRANSPLAN http://ccta.net/about/download/532b678f2ad2c.pdf South County - SWAT (Lamorinda) http://ccta.net/about/download/532b67a7a8c06.pdf South County - SWAT (Tri-Valley) http://ccta.net/about/download/52978d54a5750.pdf Volume 3 - Draft Comprehensive Transportation Project and Programs Listing Available for viewing here: http://ccta.granicus.com/MetaViewer.php?view_id=1&clip_id=63&meta_id=4581 Voter Research The Authority retained EMC Research who completed two separate research efforts in support of the CTP development. EMC staff will be present at the August 12 Board of Supervisors meeting to present those results. The presentations are attached: Contra Costa County Voter Research CCTA Board Meeting – 2/19/14 (Exhibit 3 CCTA Report - Board presentation 2-19-14.pdf) Contra Costa County Voter Research 2014 Survey 2 CCTA Board – March 19, 2014 (Exhibit 4 CCTA Report - Board Presentation 3-19-14.pdf) CTP Development Context The update of the CTP was initiated in 2012. The Issues and Opportunities document was prepared in late 2013/early 2014 and distributed by the Authority in the Spring to guide the development of the CTP. That document is attached (See Exhibit 5 - 2014 CTP Update I&O.pdf) and contains background information used in the CTP development such as commute patterns, relevant policies, demographic information, etc. A summary of the guidance in the Issues and Opportunities document is below: CCTA Vision Strive to preserve and enhance the quality of life of local communities by promoting a healthy environment and a strong economy to benefit all people and areas of Contra Costa, through 1) a balanced, safe, and efficient transportation network; 2) cooperative planning; and 3) growth management. The transportation network should integrate all modes of transportation to meet the diverse needs of Contra Costa. CCTA GOALS Support the efficient and reliable movement of people and goods using all available travel modes Manage growth to sustain Contra Costa’s economy, preserve its environment and support its communities Expand safe, convenient and affordable alternatives to the single occupant vehicle Maintain the transportation system Continue to invest wisely to maximize the benefits of available funding Strategies for Achieving Our Goals Support the Efficient and Reliable Movement of People and Goods Manage Growth to Sustain Contra Costa's Economy and Preserve its Environment Expand Safe, Convenient and Affordable Alternatives to the Single-Occupant Vehicle Maintain the Transportation System Key Considerations for the 2014 CTP Update Funding Improving Mobility for the Next Generation Using Transportation Technology Managing the Effects of Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Emissions on Our Climate Implementing Plan Bay Area CONSEQUENCE OF NEGATIVE ACTION: Without taking action, the Board of Supervisors will forgo an opportunity to communicate the position of the Board to the Authority on the update to the Countywide Transportation Plan. CHILDREN'S IMPACT STATEMENT: Not Applicable. ATTACHMENTS Exhibit 1 - CTP Release Exhibit 2 - CTP ExecSumm.pdf Exhibit 3 CCTA Report - Board presentation 2-19-14 Exhibit 4 CCTA Report - Board Presentation 3-19-14.pdf Exhibit 5 - 2014 CTP Update I&O.pdf Exhibit 6 - CTP Presentation_August 12.2014_BOS.pdf 2014 Countywide Comprehensive Transportation Plan Volume 1 Prelim i n a r y Draft f o r Planni n g Commit t e e r eview July 2, 2014 Attachment A Executive Summary 4.B.8-8 Cover  photo  by  Noah  Berger  |  CCTA   Commissioners   Kevin  Romick,  Chair,  East  County,      City  of  Oakley   Julie  Pierce,  Vice  Chair,  East  County,    City  of  Clayton   Janet  Abelson,  Mayor,  West  County,    City  of  El  Cerrito   Newell  Arnerich,  Southwest      County,    Town  of  Danville   Tom  Butt,  West  County,      City  of  Richmond   David  Durant,  Central  County,      City  of  Pleasant  Hill   Federal  Glover,      County  Board  of  Supervisors   Dave  Hudson,  Southwest  County,      City  of  San  Ramon   Mike  Metcalf,  Southwest  County,      Town  of  Moraga                                 Karen  Mitchoff,      County  Board  of  Supervisors   Robert  Taylor,  Mayor,  West  County,    City  of  Brentwood   Ex-­‐‑Officio  Members   Amy  Worth,  City  of  Orinda   Myrna  De  Vera,  Mayor,  City  of      Hercules   Gail  Murray,  Director,  BART  Board      of    Directors     Executive  Director   Randell  H.  Iwasaki,  P.E.   4.B.8-9                         The  preparation  of  this  report  has  been  financed  through  a  grant  from  the  U.S.   Department  of  Transportation  and  the  Federal  Highway  Administration.  The   content  of  this  report  does  not  necessarily  reflect  the  official  views  or  policy  of   the  U.S.  Department  of  Transportation.   4.B.8-10 Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review    I-i Volume  1     Table  of  Contents   Executive Summary ................................................................................. I-1   1  Introduction ............................................................................................ I-19   About the Comprehensive Transportation Plan ..................................................... I-18     Contra Costa by the Numbers: Context and Implications for Travel ............... I-29   The Regional Transportation Planning Committees ............................................... I-22   Plan Bay Area: What does it mean for Contra Costa? .......................................... I-33     Contents of the Comprehensive Transportation Plan ........................................... I-41   Review and Approval Process ...................................................................................... I-41   2  Visions, Goals and Strategies ................................................................ I-43   Vision ................................................................................................................................. I-43   Goals and Strategies for the 2014 Update ................................................................ I-44   3  The Transportation System ................................................................. I-49   Roadways .......................................................................................................................... I-50   Transit, including Buses, Rail, Paratransit, and Ferries .......................................... I-53   High Occupancy Vehicle Lanes .................................................................................... I-60   Trails in Contra Costa of Countywide or Regional Importance ......................... I-66   Pedestrian and Bicycle Facilities ................................................................................... I-65   Facilities for Goods Movement .................................................................................... I-75   Revenues Available and New Funding Needed ........................................................ I-78   4  Cooperative Planning: Action Plans and Growth Management ........................................................................................... I-81   Components Of The Action Plans .............................................................................. I-85   Action Plan Summaries .................................................................................................. I-85   West County ................................................................................................................... I-86   Central County ................................................................................................................ I-92   East County ...................................................................................................................... I-98   4.B.8-11 2014  Countywide  Comprehensive  Transportation  Plan:  Volume  1   Preliminary  Draft   I-ii Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review   Lamorinda ....................................................................................................................... I-104   Tri-Valley ......................................................................................................................... I-110   Growth Management Program .................................................................................. I-114   5  Implementation ................................................................................... I-119   Funding the Plan ............................................................................................................. I-120   Detailed Implementation Tasks ................................................................................. I-121   Appendix A: Routes of Regional Significance ............................................... I-129   Appendix B: Glossary ...................................................................................... I-135   Volume 2: Action Plans for Routes of Regional Significance Volume 3: Comprehensive Transportation Project List       4.B.8-12 Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review    I-1 Executive  Summary   OVERVIEW The  Contra  Costa  Countywide  Transportation  Plan,  or  CTP,  is   the  blueprint  for  Contra  Costa’s  transportation  system  over  the   next  30  years.  This  long-­‐‑range  vision  for  transportation  identifies   the   projects,   programs,   and   policies   that   the   Authority   Board   hopes  to  pursue  over  the  lifetime  of  the  Plan.  The  CTP  identifies   goals  for  bringing  together  all  modes  of  travel,  networks  and  op-­‐‑ erators,  to  meet  the  diverse  needs  of  Contra  Costa.   By  improving  the  transportation  system,  we  can  help  to  address   the  challenges  that  a  growing  population,  more  jobs,  and  more   traffic  will  bring.  The  Plan  lays  out  a  vision  for  our  transporta-­‐‑ tion  future,  the  goals  and  strategies  for  achieving  that  vision,  and   the  future  transportation  investments  needed  to  promote  a  grow-­‐‑ ing   economy,  advance  technological   changes,   protect   the   envi-­‐‑ ronment,  and  improve  our  quality  of  life.       4.B.8-13 2014  Countywide  Comprehensive  Transportation  Plan:  Volume  1   Preliminary  Draft   I-2 Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review   CHALLENGES AHEAD Census  data  shows  that  the  population  of  Contra  Costa  grew  from  804,000  in   1990  to  just  over  one  million  residents  in  2010,  an  increase  of  30  percent  over   twenty  years.  New  forecasts  for  the  region  indicate  that,  while  yearly  population   growth  is  slowing  slightly,  Contra  Costa  will  still  add  another  270,000  residents   by  2040,  a  27  percent  increase  over  the  next  thirty  years.   Unlike  population,  job  growth  is  expected  to  speed  up.  Between  1990  and  2010,   the  number  of  jobs  in  Contra  Costa  grew  only  17  percent.  We’re  expecting  the   rate  of  job  growth  to  more  than  double  to  35  percent,  resulting  in  nearly  half  a   million  jobs  by  2040.   While  both  jobs  and  population  will  increase,  some  areas  of  the  county  will  grow   faster  than  others.  Population  growth  in  West  County,  Central  County  and  East   County  is  expected  to  be  the  highest,  at  29  percent  each,  followed  by  Lamorinda   and  the  Tri-­‐‑Valley,  at  16  percent  each  by  2040.  Job  growth  in  East  County  and   Central  County  is  expected  to  outpace  other  areas  with  increases  of  40  percent   and  37  percent,  respectively,  with  the  slowest  rate  of  job  growth  found  in  Lamor-­‐‑ inda,  with  an  expected  increase  of  25  percent  by  2040.   How We Get to Work Commuters  have  a  variety  of  options  for  getting  to  work:  driving  alone,  carpool-­‐‑ ing,  taking  transit,  walking,  or  biking.  Alternatively,  in  recent  years  many  com-­‐‑ panies  have  begun  to  allow  employees  to  telecommute  from  home.   Since  1980,  the  percentage  of  commuters  who  drive  alone  has  remained  steady  at   about  70  percent.  Similarly,  transit  ridership  has  also  held  steady,  at  approxi-­‐‑ mately  9  percent.  What  has  changed  most  dramatically  over  the  30  years  between   1980  and  2010  is  the  number  of  people  who  now  indicate  they  work  from  home:   the  percentage  of  people  who  work  from  home  has  more  than  doubled,  from  1.9   percent  in  1980  to  5.6  percent  in  2010,  as  shown  in  Figure  E-­‐‑1.  Will  that  percent-­‐‑ age  continue  to  increase  through  2040?  And  if  so,  could  telecommuting  reach   levels  of  10  to  20  percent?  That  would  be  a  major  balm  to  congestion.     4.B.8-14 Executive  Summary   Preliminary  Draft   Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review  I-3   Figure E-1: Work From Home, Share of Commute Trips, 1980-2010 Source: CCTA, 2013.   The  economy  is  also  recovering  from  the  recent  recession.  As  shown  in  Figure  E-­‐‑ 2  below,   unemployment   levels   have   been   steadily   dropping   towards   pre-­‐‑ recession  levels  since  2010.   4.B.8-15 2014  Countywide  Comprehensive  Transportation  Plan:  Volume  1   Preliminary  Draft   I-4 Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review   Figure E-2: Unemployment Rate, 2007-2013 Source: CCTA, 2013. What does this mean for traffic? The  end  of  the  Great  Recession  comes  as  welcome  news  for  the  economy  and  res-­‐‑ idents  of  the  Bay  Area.  This  may  mean,  however,  more  people  on  the  road  and   on  BART  and  buses,  making  for  heavier  traffic  and  more  crowded  commutes.   Although  more  residents  may  work  from  home  to  avoid  the  commute,  traffic   congestion  will  remain  a  growing  problem.  People  will  continue  to  travel  from   home  to  work,  school,  and  other  destinations.  As  a  result,  we  can  expect  past   trends  (shown  in  Figure  E-­‐‑3)  to  continue,  with  further  increases  in  roadway  traf-­‐‑ fic,  and  more  hours  spent  on  congested  roadways.   4.B.8-16 Executive  Summary   Preliminary  Draft   Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review  I-5   Figure E-3: Average Daily Hours of Congestion, 1986-2012 Source: 1986-2008 Hi-Comp Report; 2009-2012 Mobility Performance Report.   According  to  our  forecasts,  by  2040,  traffic  between  East  County  and  Central   County  will  increase  by  70  percent.  Other  corridors  will  experience  significant   traffic  growth  as  well.   The  good  news  is  that  we  also  expect  more  people  to  take  transit  such  as  BART   or  a  bus,  or  switch  to  walking  or  bicycling.  The  number  of  hours  per  person  that   vehicles  are  driven  has  been  dropping  over  the  last  decade,  a  trend  that  pre-­‐‑dates   the  Great  Recession.  And  there  is  more  good  news.  California  has  always  been  a   front-­‐‑runner   in   low-­‐‑emissions   vehicle   technology.   As   progress   continues,   and   more  hybrid  and  electric  cars  join  the  fleet,  harmful  emissions  from  tomorrow’s   vehicles  will  be  reduced  to  a  small  fraction  of  what  they  are  today.   We  also  need  to  look  no  farther  than  our  own  backyard  to  see  what  further  inno-­‐‑ vations  lie  ahead.  In  Mountain  View,  the  autonomous  Google®  car  is  being  per-­‐‑ fected,  and  here  in  Contra  Costa  we  have  volunteered  to  have  our  streets  and   4.B.8-17 2014  Countywide  Comprehensive  Transportation  Plan:  Volume  1   Preliminary  Draft   I-6 Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review   roads  serve  as  a  test-­‐‑bed  for  a  federally-­‐‑funded  pilot  program  intended  to  accel-­‐‑ erate  the  deployment  of  connected-­‐‑autonomous  vehicles  (CAVs).   CCTA’S GOALS AND STRATEGIES The  Authority  has  identified  five  goals  and  corresponding  strategies  for  the  2014   CTP.     Goals 1. Support  the  efficient,  safe,  and  reliable  movement  of  people  and  goods   using  all  available  travel  modes;   2. Manage   growth   to   sustain   Contra   Costa’s   economy,  preserve   its   envi-­‐‑ ronment  and  support  its  communities;   3. Expand   safe,   convenient   and   affordable   alternatives  to  the   single-­‐‑ occupant  vehicle;     4. Maintain  the  transportation  system;  and   5. Continue  to  invest  wisely  to  maximize  the  benefits  of  available  funding.   Issues & Opportunities The  goal  of  the  2014  CTP  is  to  identify  and  implement  specific  actions  and  strate-­‐‑ gies   that  support   our   shared   goal   of   safe,   strong,   and   efficient   transportation   networks  that  improve  the  quality  of  life  of  Contra  Costa  residents.  As  we  work   together  to  develop  solutions  for  our  county,  we  also  need  to  be  mindful  of  new   challenges  and  opportunities  that  may  affect  the  CTP’s  goals.   Funding Funding  is  critical  to  meeting  the  stated  goals  of  the  CTP  and  helping  Contra   Costa  remain  one  of  the  most  desirable  places  to  live  and  work  in  the  Bay  Area.   In  addition  to  examining  how  we  can  most  responsibly  and  efficiently  use  exist-­‐‑ ing  funding  sources  -­‐‑  such  as  traditional  State  and  federal  funds,  Cap  and  Trade   funds,  OneBayArea  Grants,  and  voter-­‐‑approved  Measure  J  funds  -­‐‑  we  also  need   to   consider  new  sources   of   revenue.  Open   road   tolling,  congestion   pricing  at   gateways  or  in  central  business  districts,  and  pricing  based  on  parking  demand   are  a  few  potential  sources.   4.B.8-18 Executive  Summary   Preliminary  Draft   Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review  I-7   Changing Travel Choices As  noted  earlier,  the  number  of  vehicle  miles  traveled  (VMT)  per  capita  has  been   decreasing  over  the  last  decade.  This  drop  is  driven  primarily  by  the  changing   habits  of  the  “millennials”,  the  generation  born  after  1982.  This  group  is  driving,   and  even  getting  a  license  to  drive,  less  frequently.  Partly,  this  results  from  the   high  cost  of  owning  and  operating  a  vehicle,  especially  with  the  significant  stu-­‐‑ dent  debt  many  millennials  carry.  And  partly  it  results  from  changes  in  where   millennials  –  and  many  retiring  Baby  Boomers  –  are  choosing  to  live,  namely  in   close-­‐‑in,  walkable  neighborhoods.  This  change  does  not,  however,  seem  related   to  unemployment.  Both  states  with  higher  and  lower  unemployment  rates  have   seen  drops  in  VMT. If  this  recent  trend  continues,  it  would  mean  that  forecasts  of  increased  conges-­‐‑ tion  may  be  excessively  dire.  But  even  so,  we  expect  that,  in  many  locations,  we   will  see  more  delays  on  our  roads,  especially  where  people  must  go  further  to  get   to  work.   Improving Mobility for the Next Generation The  Authority  has  long  been  concerned  with  how  we  can  continue  to  maintain   and  improve  our  roads,  freeways,  transit,  and  pedestrian  and  bicycle  facilities  in   ways  that  sustain  our  economy,  our  environment  and  our  quality  of  life.   Making  new  improvements,  while  maintaining  what  we  have,  is  a  prominent   issue  for  the  2014  CTP  as  the  Authority  addresses  new  State  legislation  such  as   SB  375.  This  legislation,  and  the  Sustainable  Communities  Strategies  required  by   it,  supports  the  development  of  job  centers  and  neighborhoods  that  are  easier  to   get  to  by  transit  and  safe  and  convenient  to  walk  or  bicycle  in,  changes  that  will   reduce  the  need  for  long  commutes  to  work,  shopping  and  other  destinations.   We  also  need  to  ensure  that  our  roads  and  transit  systems  are  resilient:  can  we   continue   to   get   around   following   an   earthquake?   Will   increased   frequency   of   storm  surges  harm  our  rail  lines  and  roadways?   Using Transportation Technology Throughout  our  history,  people  have  used  technology  to  address  problems.  Over   the  last  two  centuries,  technology  has  revolutionized  how  we  move  people  and   goods.  Instead  of  horse-­‐‑drawn  carriages  and  wind-­‐‑driven  ships,  we  now  rely  on   trains,  planes,  buses  and  cars.  These  new  technologies  haven’t  been  without  their   downsides.  For  example,  the  engines  propelling  our  ships,  trains,  planes,  and   4.B.8-19 2014  Countywide  Comprehensive  Transportation  Plan:  Volume  1   Preliminary  Draft   I-8 Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review   vehicles  are  a  major  contributor  to  greenhouse  gas  emissions.  And  the  increased   speeds  these  technologies  allow  have  contributed  to  the  sprawling  character  of   many  of  our  communities.       As  technology  advances,  it  is  shifting  the  ways  that  people  use  and  access  the  transportation  system;  for  example,  real-­‐‑time   ridesharing  is  facilitated  in  Contra  Costa  County  by  companies  such  as  Carma,  pictured  above.     Source:  Noah  Berger,  CCTA.       Technology  can  also  help  address  the  negative  effects  of  our  modern  transporta-­‐‑ tion  network.  The  increased  use  of  electric  (or  partially  electric)  vehicles  will  re-­‐‑ duce  greenhouse  gas  emissions  in  our  urban  areas  (though  this  may  be  offset  by   the  need  to  increase  electricity  generation),  and  the  increased  use  of  electric  vehi-­‐‑ cles  will  increase  the  need  for  charging  infrastructure.  While  autonomous  vehi-­‐‑ cles  may  make  more  efficient  use  of  our  roadways  and  may  reduce  the  number   of  collisions,  they  could  also  require  dramatic  changes  in  how  we  design  our   roadways.   Other  technologies  focus   on   the  roadway   itself.  Intelligent   transportation   sy s-­‐‑ tems,  or  ITS,  can  benefit  our  transportation  network  by  improving  safety  and  ef-­‐‑ ficiency.  This  benefits  the  environment  by  limiting  the  waste  of  fuel  and  reducing   greenhouse   gas   emissions.   ITS   encompasses   many   techniques,   including   elec-­‐‑ tronic  toll  collection  (such  as  FasTrak  in  the  Bay  Area),  ramp  metering,  traffic   4.B.8-20 Executive  Summary   Preliminary  Draft   Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review  I-9   signal  coordination,  and  traveler  information  systems,  for  freeways,  arterials  and   transit  systems.   The  2014  plan  considers  how  this  evolving  transportation  technology  should  be   incorporated  into  our  transportation  system.   Technology   advancements   sometimes   require   changes   to   our   infrastructure;   for   example,   as   electric   vehicles   are   increasingly  used  across  Contra  Costa,  more  electric  vehicle  charging  stations  are  needed  to  support  them.     Source:  Noah  Berger,  CCTA.   Managing the Effects of Greenhouse Gases Climate  change  will  have  to  be  considered  in  our  growth  management  plan  due   to  the  California  Governor’s  order  mandating  an  80  percent  reduction  of  green-­‐‑ house  gases  below  1990  levels  by  2050,  as  shown  in  Figure  E-­‐‑4.  Any  efforts  to  in-­‐‑ crease  the  resiliency  of  the  our  transportation  system  in  light  of  future  sea  level   rise  will  also  need  to  take  into  account  future  vulnerabilities,  such  as  bay-­‐‑lands   and  access  points  near  San  Francisco  Bay  and  the  implications  for  infrastructure   and  land  use.   4.B.8-21 2014  Countywide  Comprehensive  Transportation  Plan:  Volume  1   Preliminary  Draft   I-10 Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review   Figure E-4: Reaching Statewide AB 32 GHG Reduction Targets   Constrained Core Concentration Initial Vision/Core Concentration Focused Growth Outward Growth Current Regional Plans 9.4% 9.1% 8.2% 7.9% 7.0% SCS Regional Contribution*** Scenarios IMPROVED FUEL EFFICIENCY (PAVLEY I & II) LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS REGIONAL LAND USE & TRANSPORTATION (SCS)Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent15% 0% 50 1990 2000 2010 100 250 300 350 150 200 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 2020 2030 2040 2050 Projected Land Use & Transportation Emissions Reductions 80% 427 4 3 2 1 610 1 2 3 4 5 Science and Technology Report, 2011 NON-TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS REDUCTION ACTUAL/PROJECTED EMISSIONS ***MTC’s regional contribution ampli ed to re ect the contributions of all California MPOs FIGURE 3: Regional Land Use and Transportation SCS ACHIEVING ST ATEWIDE AB 32 GHG REDUCTION TAR GET S Source: Plan Bay Area ACHIEVING THE GOVERNOR’S DIRECTIVE: REACHING STATEWIDE AB 32 GHG REDUCTION TARGETS 800 *Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent **Estimate based on California Council on Science and Technology Report, 2011 427427 85 Target 2050 Emissions (20% of 1990 Emissions): 85 Tons* Required to meet Governor’s Executive Order S-3-05 Forecast 2050 Emissions** 507 4.B.8-22 Executive  Summary   Preliminary  Draft   Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review  I-11   COOPERATIVE PLANNING The  2014  CTP  relies  on  collaboration  with  and  between  our  partners,  both  at  the   countywide   and   regional   levels.  As   a   critical  component   of   the   countywide   transportation  planning  process,  each  of  the  county’s  five  Regional  Transporta-­‐‑ tion   Planning   Committees   (RTPCs)   creates   an  Action   Plan,   which  identifies   a   complete  list  of  Actions  to  be  completed  as  a  result  of  the  Action  Plan.  The  2014   Action  Plans  are  unique  in  the  sense  that  they  focus  on  additional  consideration   of   multimodal   transit   options   including   pedestrian   and   bicycling   facility   im-­‐‑ provements  and  changes.     The  2014  updates  of  the  plans  also  demonstrate  an  increased  concern  for  intra-­‐‑ regional   routes   and   impact   of   traffic   diverting   from   inter-­‐‑regional   routes,   in-­‐‑ creased   support   for   freeway   management   strategies,   and   the   recognition   of   BART   and   freeway   management   as   important   inter-­‐‑regional   strategies.  The   Growth  Management  Program  (GMP),  which  is  Contra  Costa’s  program  to  en-­‐‑ force   collaborative  transportation   and   land   use   planning,  began   a   new   stage   when  Measure  J  passed  in  2009.  With  the  implementation  of  Measure  J,  the  GMP   remains  in  effect  through  2034.   Role of Action Plans in Identifying and Evaluating New Projects As  part  of  the  Action  Plan  planning  process,  each  RTPC  identified  projects  and   programs  in  the  form  of  Actions  to  be  included  in  the  Action  Plan  for  the  Routes   of  Regional  Significance.  The  2014  Action  Plans  used  the  2009  Action  Plans  as  a   base,  with  new  Actions  and  Regional  Routes  of  Significance  identified  through   discussion,  collaboration,  and  reviewing  by  each  committee.  Each  Action  Plan   states  its  vision,  goals,  and  policies;  designates  Routes  of  Regional  Significance;   sets  objectives  for  these  routes;  and  presents  specific  Actions  to  achieve  these  ob-­‐‑ jectives.  The  Actions  are  listed  on  both  a  route-­‐‑by-­‐‑route  and  a  regional  scale  and   aim  to  support  the  transportation  objectives  as  specified  by  each  RTPC’s  respec-­‐‑ tive  committee(s).  Figure  E-­‐‑6  shows  the  Action  Plan  approval  process.       The Growth Management Program (GMP) The  GMP  will  continue  to  provide  cooperative  planning  on  a  countywide  basis,   as  mandated  by  Measure  J.  So  far,  the  GMP  has  vastly  improved  interjurisdic-­‐‑ tional  communications  regarding  transportation  and  land  use  issues.  By  working   with  the  cities  and  towns  to  manage  growth,  the  Authority  has  facilitated  crea-­‐‑ tion  of  a  regional  mitigation  program  that  has  generated  more  than  $250  million   in  new  revenues  for  regional  transportation  projects.  The  GMP  will  continue  to   4.B.8-23 2014  Countywide  Comprehensive  Transportation  Plan:  Volume  1   Preliminary  Draft   I-12 Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review   be  implemented  in  accordance  with  the  requirements  of  Measure  J  through  2034.   As  shown  in  Figure  E-­‐‑5,  the  Measure  J  GMP  has  seven  components  that  local  ju-­‐‑ risdictions  must  implement  to  maintain  compliance  with  the  GMP,  and  receive   funding  for  local  streets  and  roads  in  return.     Figure E-5: The Measure J Growth Management Program     Implementing Plan Bay Area Adopted  last  year,  Plan  Bay  Area  is   the   Bay   Area’s   long -­‐‑term  transportation,   land  use,  and  housing  strategy  through  the  year  2040.  It  includes  the  Bay  Area’s   Regional  Transportation  Plan  and  Sustainable  Communities  Strategy.  Plan  Bay   Area  was  created  by  the  Metropolitan  Transportation  Commission  (MTC)  and   the  Association  of  Bay  Area  Governments  (ABAG)  in  response  to  State  legisla-­‐‑ tion  (SB  375).  Plan  Bay  Area  envisioned  that  implementation  details  would  be   taken  up  in  partnership  with  transportation  planning  agencies  and  local  jurisdic-­‐‑ tions.  As  such,  the  2014  CTP  addresses  how  elements  included  in  Plan  Bay  Area   fit  into  our  vision  for  Contra  Costa.       Growth Management Program To receive Measure J local street funds, a jurisdiction must: Adopt a Growth Management Program Adopt an Urban Limit Line Develop a local and regional transportation mitigation program Show progress on providing housing options and consider bicycle, pedestrian and traf c access in new developments Participate in cooperative, multi-jurisdiction planning Adopt a transportation demand management program Develop a ve-year capital improvement program 4.B.8-24 RTPCsAction Plan Process Update CCTA RTPCs REVISE Action Plan Goals & Objectives IDENTIFY new/rened MTSOs & Actions consistent with revised goals COMPILE updated Action Plan for circulation & review RTPCs RECEIVE Comments from the Public RTPCs INCORPORATE comments AND APPROVE Final Action Plans CCTA CERTIFIES Final EIR & Adopts Final CTP with Final Action PLans RTPCs ADOPTS Final Action Plans FORWARD updated Action Plan to CCTA CCTA ISSUES Draft CTP and Draft EIR Public Review REVIEW status of Action Plans and Existing MTSOs Figure E-6: Action Plan Development and Approval Process 4.B.8-25 2014  Countywide  Comprehensive  Transportation  Plan:  Volume  1   Preliminary  Draft   I-14 Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review   Elements  of  Plan  Bay  Area  that  are  reflected  in  this  plan  include:    Priority  Development  Areas  (PDAs);      Use  of  California  Cap  and  Trade  funds;      Other   initiatives,   including   those   for   freeway   performance,   carpooling   and  vanpooling,  smart  driving  strategies,  streamlining  the  environmental   review  process,  goods  movement,  and  industrial  lands  inventories;    MTC’s  Regional  Prosperity  Plan,  which  removes  barriers  for  the  disad-­‐‑ vantaged  and  discusses  the  unresolved  regional  issues  of  mobility  and   equity;      Complete   Streets,   which   serve   all   modes,   and   reasonable   accommod a-­‐‑ tions  for  all  modes;  and      How   and   when   to   incorporate  Plan   Bay   Area’s  land   use   forecasts   for   transportation  into  model  updates.   IMPLEMENTING THE PLAN The  2014  CTP  will  play  an  important  role  in  shaping  our  transportation  policy   and  investment  decisions.  But  how  will  the  Plan  be  carried  out?  The  Authority   will  need  to  work  with  many  agencies  to  fund  and  prioritize  the  programs  and   projects  that  will  work  towards  achieving  its  goals.  The  CTP  outlines  the  strate-­‐‑ gies,  the  partnerships  and  the  guidelines  essential  for  a  smooth  transition  from   concept  to  reality,  building  on  lessons  learned  since  the  first  CTP  was  prepared   in  1995.   Detailed  implementation  tasks  fall  under  the  following  seven  broad  categories:    Implement  Measure  J  funding  programs    Plan  for  Contra  Costa’s  transportation  future    Support  growth  management    Develop  transportation  improvements    Improve  system  management   4.B.8-26 Executive  Summary   Preliminary  Draft   Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review  I-15    Build  and  maintain  partnerships    Fund  transportation  improvements   The  2014  CTP  represents  the  Authority’s  long-­‐‑term  plan  for  achieving  a  healthy   environment  and  a  strong  economy  that  benefits  the  people  and  areas  of  Contra   Costa  through   investment   in   our   transportation   system,   cooperative   planning   and  growth  management.  Working  with  its  partner  agencies,  the  Authority  will   apply  these  strategies  outlined  in  the  2014  CTP  to  achieve  the  vision  for  Contra   Costa’s  future.     FUNDING OVERVIEW Over  the  life  of  Measure  J,  the  Authority  anticipates  total  revenues  of  $2.7  billion   (escalated  dollars)  from  the  one-­‐‑half  percent  sales  tax.  Of  these,  about  58  percent,   or  $1.56  billion,  is  dedicated  to  programs  such  as  local  streets  and  roads,  bus  op-­‐‑ erations,  and  Transportation  for  Livable  Communities.  The  remaining  42  percent,   or  $1.14  billion,  goes  to  specific  transportation  projects.     Measure  C  (1988-­‐‑2004)  had  a  different  project/program  split.  Of  the  $1.1  billion   generated  by  Measure  C,  specific  transportation  projects  received  60  percent  of   total  revenues,  while  programs  received  40  percent.   Measures  C  and  J  have  made  a  substantial  dent  in  funding  needed  for  projects   and  programs,  not  only  from  the  revenues  they  generated,  but  also  the  funding   they  attracted  from  other  sources.  As  shown  in  the  table  below,  total  past  and   future   project   expenditures,   including   state   and   federal   funds   leveraged   by   Measures  C  and  J,  total  $6.5  billion.   4.B.8-27 2014  Countywide  Comprehensive  Transportation  Plan:  Volume  1   Preliminary  Draft   I-16 Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review   TABLE E-1: MEASURES C AND J PAST AND FUTURE PROJECT EXPENDITURES MEASURE C AND MEASURE J (X $1,000) PAST UPCOMING TOTAL Roadway (highways, arterials and maintenance) $754,989 $1,030,733 $1,785,722 Transit (bus, ferry, express bus, paratransit, commute alternatives) $433,548 $737,643 $1,171,192 Pedestrian & Bicycle (TLC, trails, safe transport for children, subregional needs) $11,152 $322,812 $333,964 Other $143,915 $372,998 $516,913 Subtotal $1,343,605 $2,464,187 $3,807,792 Leveraged funds on Measure C & J projects $1,721,000 $970,000 $2,691,000 TOTAL FUNDS $2,064,605 $3,434,187 $6,498,792   The  CTP  contains  a  detailed  listing  of  projects  covering  all  modes  of  transport.   As  shown  in  the  table  below,  the  total  cost  of  proposed  future  projects  is  estimat-­‐‑ ed  at  nearly  $11.7  billion,  of  which  only  $4.8  billion  is  funded  through  local,  re-­‐‑ gional,  state,  and  federal  sources   TABLE E-2: TOTAL COSTS OF PROPOSED FUTURE PROJECTS PROJECT TYPE TOTAL COST ($1,000) SHARE OF TOTAL Arterial/Roadway $1,954,075 16.8% Bicycle/Pedestrian/SR2S/TLC $579,159 5.0% Transit $5,072,089 43.5% Freeway/Expressway/Interchanges $3,875,997 33.3% Intermodal/Park-and-Ride $131,854 1.1% Studies $38,035 1.3% TOTAL COST $11,651,209 100.0%   In  addition  to  the  projects,  there  are  a  number  of  transportation  programs  that   are  needed  to  preserve,  protect,  and  operate  our  investments  and  to  serve  our   travellers.  The  CTP  estimates  that  approximately  $14  billion  would  be  required   to  carry  these  programs  through  to  2040.  Of  this,  only  $11.4  billion  is  funded.  The   following  table  summarizes  the  cost  by  program  type.     4.B.8-28 Executive  Summary   Preliminary  Draft   Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review  I-17       A  major  challenge  facing  the  Authority  is  to  prioritize  this  $26  billion  in  projects   and   programs,   and   determine   which   should   receive   highest   priority   over   the   next  30  years.  In  addition,  the  Authority  must  seek  new  sources  of  funding  to   bridge  an  approximate  $10  billion  funding  gap.  Through  renewal  of  the  sales  tax   measure,  and  by  keeping  a  close  eye  on  other  funding  opportunities  that  may   present  themselves,  the  Authority  will  continue  working  diligently  to  achieve   Contra  Costa’s  transportation  vision  for  2040.       TABLE E-3: TOTAL COSTS OF PROPOSED PROGRAMS PROGRAM TYPE TOTAL COST (X $1,000) SHARE OF TOTAL Arterial/Roadway $5,977,720 41.1% Bicycle/Pedestrian $231,599 1.6% Bus $1,419,053 9.8% Freeway/Expressway/Interchanges $935,440 6.4% Green Programs $500,000 3.4% Innovation $100,000 0.7% Paratransit $113,500 0.8% Rail/Rapid Transit $5,229,000 35.9% Safe Routes to Schools $23,013 0.2% TDM $26,600 0.2% TOTAL COST $14,556,726 100.0% 4.B.8-29 2014  Countywide  Comprehensive  Transportation  Plan:  Volume  1   Preliminary  Draft   I-18 Preliminary  Draft  for  Planning  Committee  Review   This  page  intentionally  blank       4.B.8-30 Contra Costa Transportation Authority Contra Costa County Voter Research CCTA Board Meeting – 2/19/14 EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 2 1. Meet with Authority Staff and Consultants 2. Review existing available relevant opinion research 3. Meet with appropriate commission members/ committees 4.Conduct Qualitative Research (focus Groups) 5. Analyze Qualitative Research 6. Conduct Quantitative Research (telephone poll) EMC’s Research Process EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 3 Region Subgroups 21% 23% 32% 16% 8% Focus Groups EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 5 Focus Group Methodology •Eight focus groups with Contra Costa County voters, two in each planning region: –East county (held in Antioch) – September 24, 2013 –Central county (held in Walnut Creek) – September 25, 2013 –South county/Lamorinda (held in Walnut Creek) – September 26, 2013 –West county (held in Richmond) – October 3, 2013 •One group of women and one of men held in each location •All groups recruited for a mix of age, ethnicity, party registration, residence city, and regular modes of transportation used EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 6 Summary of Focus Group Findings •The importance of traffic and transportation as high-profile problems is returning with the resurgence of the economy •While the road/highway network is catching up with population growth in the area, BART and public transit remain inadequate –They can see the promise of public transit through their experiences with BART and MUNI •The CCTA doesn’t exist, the transportation sales tax doesn’t exist, and county-level transportation planning is underappreciated •They think current highway improvement projects are the result of state and federal funding and Caltrans management –They like what’s been done, but they don’t know what role Contra Costa residents have played in it EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 7 Summary of Focus Group Findings (continued) •The public wants the CCTA to be more aspirational •Their world doesn’t end at the county line; the plan needs to look farther •Many improvements are unpopular before they are built, but they prove their worth once they have been experienced •Many of the planned improvements will be popular once people understand what they are •Use plain language Telephone Survey EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 9 Please note that due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to exactly 100%. Telephone survey of registered voters in Contra Costa County, with oversamples in key regions Interviewing conducted January 21 - February 4, 2014 814 total interviews countywide; Margin of Error = + 3.4 points Weighted to reflect overall countywide likely November 2014 voter population using key demographics Interviewing started trained, professional interviewers Methodology Region Number of Interviews (Unweighted n) Margin of Error (+/-) Unweighted % Weighted % West 168 n 7.6 pts 21% 21% Central 224 6.5 28 32 San Ramon Valley 131 8.6 16 16 Lamorinda 104 9.6 13 8 East 187 7.2 23 23 EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 10 Demographics by Region Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Dem 50% 67% 47% 34% 43% 54% Rep 26% 11% 28% 39% 33% 25% DTS/Oth 24% 22% 25% 26% 23% 21% Male 46% 43% 46% 48% 47% 46% Female 54% 57% 54% 52% 53% 54% 18-49 42% 44% 39% 43% 39% 46% 50-64 34% 32% 34% 35% 36% 34% 65+ 24% 24% 27% 22% 25% 20% Commutes to Work/School with any mode frequently 50% 48% 50% 53% 50% 51% Less frequently 50% 52% 50% 47% 50% 49% EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 11 Bay Area: Right Direction/Wrong Track About half of Contra Costa voters think things in the Bay area are heading in the right direction. This sentiment is especially strong among San Ramon and Lamorinda voters. 49% 48% 47% 61% 60% 41% 20% 19% 28% 10% 15% 21% 31% 33% 26% 29% 24% 38% + 19% + 16% + 21% + 32% + 36% + 3% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Right Direction Don't know Wrong Track Net R/D Q4. Do you think things in the Bay Area are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 12 Contra Costa: Right Direction/Wrong Track A majority of voters believe things are going in the right direction for Contra Costa, in particular. Voters in Contra Costa’s East region are comparatively split. 54% 51% 57% 64% 60% 45% 19% 17% 18% 13% 16% 16% 27% 32% 25% 23% 23% 39% + 26% + 19% + 32% + 42% + 37% + 6% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Right Direction Don't know Wrong Track Net R/D Q5. Do you think things in Contra Costa County are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 13 Contra Costa: Right Direction/Wrong Track 57% 45% 47% 36% 54% 20% 12% 15% 21% 16% 23% 43% 38% 43% 29% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Right Direction Don't know Wrong Track Q5. Do you think things in Contra Costa County are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Since dropping in 2010, voters’ right direction sentiment has rebounded to near-2001 levels. EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 14 Most Important Problem by Region Q6. What is the most important problem facing Contra Costa County today? Transportation is among the most important problems in the County. Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Unemployment/jobs/Economy 17% 22% 19% 14% 10% 14% Traffic/transportation/roads/highways/ infrastructure 15% 8% 15% 17% 21% 18% Schools/education/teacher layoffs/school budget 11% 18% 9% 12% 11% 5% Violence/crime/drugs 11% 12% 6% 4% 6% 21% Water/water supply/shortage/drought 9% 5% 14% 8% 8% 5% Housing/cost of housing/lack of affordable housing 4% 3% 4% 5% 5% 4% Budget/financial issues/too much spending 4% 4% 5% 5% 1% 3% Police/Fire fighter layoffs/public safety budget 3% 3% 2% 2% 0% 7% Homeless/Poverty 2% 0% 4% 2% 2% 2% Taxes 2% 1% 2% 7% 2% 0% None/Nothing/Don't Know 14% 14% 14% 14% 21% 11% EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 15 Breakout of “Transportation” Response by Region Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Traffic/transportation/roads/highways/ infrastructure 15% 8% 15% 17% 21% 18% Traffic/Parking 8% 4% 8% 11% 11% 9% Transportation system 3% 1% 4% 3% 4% 5% Roads/Highways/Bridges 3% 2% 1% 3% 6% 4% Infrastructure 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% Traffic is the top transportation-related response. Q6. What is the most important problem facing Contra Costa County today? Local Funding EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 17 Local Funding Support – Overall Just over two-thirds of voters support a sales tax increase to fund transportation improvements within Contra Costa. Q20. [Sales Tax Vote – Full text above] 68% 3% 29% Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject All Countywide Voters The following measure may be on a future ballot in Contra Costa County: Shall voters authorize implementing the Contra Costa County twenty-five year Transportation Expenditure Plan to: •Expand BART in Contra Costa County; •Improve transit connections to jobs and schools; •Fix roads, improve highways and increase bicycle and pedestrian safety; •Reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality; •Enhance transit services for seniors and people with disabilities? Approval increases by half a cent and extends the existing County sales tax, with independent oversight and audits. All money spent will benefit Contra Costa County residents. If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 18 Sales Tax Support – by Region While two-thirds of countywide voters support the transportation tax, support is strongest in East and West Contra Costa; it is just below two-thirds in San Ramon and Lamorinda. Q20. [Sales Tax Vote] If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? 68% 75% 70% 66% 63% 61% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 29% 21% 26% 31% 33% 36% + 39% + 54% + 43% + 34% + 30% + 25% 0%33%67%100% Overall East West Central Lamorinda San Ramon Valley Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject Net EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 19 Sales Tax Support – by Vote History Support is stronger among less-frequent voters but opposition increases with vote propensity. Q20. [Sales Tax Vote] If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? 68% 74% 67% 61% 3% 4% 1% 5% 29% 22% 32% 34% + 39% + 51% + 35% + 27% 0%33%67%100% Overall Low (voted 0-3/6) Medium (voted 4-5/6) High (voted 6/6) Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject Net EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 20 Need for Transportation Funding Q16. Would you say that there is a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funding for Contra Costa County’s transportation network? A supermajority of voters believe there is at least some need for additional transportation funding in Contra Costa. Just under a third consider it a ‘great’ need. 30% 37% 24% 20% 20% 40% 42% 38% 45% 47% 46% 37% 72% 75% 70% 67% 66% 77% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Great need Some need EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 21 Need for Transportation Funding Q16. Would you say that there is a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funding for Contra Costa County’s transportation network? Though it remains high, voters’ perception of need for funding has decreased slightly since 2010. 30% (-7) 37% 42% (+3) 39% 72% (-4) 76% 2014 2010 Great need Some need Attitudes EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 23 Attitudes About Transportation – Top Q21-33. I’d like to read to you a few statements. For each of the statements, please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the statement. 75% 59% 58% 59% 53% 51% 18% 30% 30% 26% 30% 32% 93% 88% 87% 85% 83% 83% Q33. We need to attract more good jobs to Contra Costa County so people don't have to commute as far Q26. CC needs to actively manage impacts of growth to sustain our economy & preserve our environment Q28. We must have long term planning in our area that accommodates drivers Q31. There should be a plan that addresses transp. needs all across the entire Bay Area, not county by county Q25. We need to enhance transit services for seniors and persons with disabilities Q24. It is important to improve BART and other public transportation to prepare for an aging population Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Total Agree EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 24 Attitudes About Transportation – Bottom Q21-33. I’d like to read to you a few statements. For each of the statements, please tell me if you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree with the statement. 49% 34% 31% 31% 31% 30% 22% 36% 36% 35% 32% 29% 71% 70% 67% 66% 62% 59% Q21. Taking public transportation is not a practical option for me most of the time Q23. Contra Costa's transportation network needs to be more resilient Q22. Technology can reduce traffic congestion in my area Q32. It is crucial to have high quality roads and public transit, even if it means raising taxes Q29. Fixing potholes and maintaining roads should be our highest transp. priority Q27. We need to drastically reduce our reliance on cars in our area, even if doing so is difficult for us today Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Total Agree Priorities EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 26 Q35-42: Priority Ratings on a 7-point scale (1 - Very low priority; 7 - Very high priority) 34% 37% 37% 31% 28% 30% 26% 24% 23% 21% 18% 19% 20% 18% 16% 13% 22% 19% 22% 22% 23% 22% 21% 24% 78% 77% 77% 72% 70% 70% 63% 61% Q38. Smoothing traffic flow on major roads by synchronizing lights & adding turn lanes Q35. BART extensions and new passenger rail services Q41. Repairing potholes and road surfaces on local streets & roads Q36. A more reliable, comfortable, and convenient bus network Q37. Completing our highway system and network of carpool lanes Q42. Better use of technology to reduce congestion and give people real-time info Q39. Creation of a safe and accessible network of bike lanes and paths Q40. Improvements to sidewalks, crosswalks, and paths 7 - Very high priority 6 5 Total 5-7 Concept Category Ratings (Independent) Q35-42. I am going to read you a brief description of several different types of projects and programs being considered to include in the Contra Costa Countywide Transportation Plan. For each one, please tell me how high a priority you think that should be for transportation planners as they consider how to spend our limited resources. EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 27 Modified Pairwise Comparison Testing Each respondent was read a series of lists of four transportation items of the eight at right. For each list, the respondent was asked to pick their one highest priority from the list. Combining the answers to this series of questions, results in a robust understanding of how survey respondents rank the importance of the entire set of items. This technique enables a full comparison of all eight items while significantly reducing respondent burden. Question Text: Now I am going to read you some lists of items that transportation planners could spend more money on in Contra Costa County. For EACH SET of four items I read you, please tell me which ONE ITEM would be YOUR highest priority to increase funding for in Contra Costa County. You may hear some items repeated as we progress through this section and you are free to choose those items each time, but for EACH particular SET of four items I read you, you may only choose one. Each question: One, <<insert item>>, two, <<insert item>>, three, <<insert item>>, or four, <<insert item>>. (As needed: Of the four things I just read you, which one would be your highest priority to increase funding for in Contra Costa County?) Priority Items 1. BART 2. Buses 3. Highways 4. Traffic smoothing on major roads 5. Bike lanes and paths 6. Sidewalks and crosswalks 7. Pothole repair 8. Technology EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 28 Modified Pairwise Comparison Methodology Every respondent was read the same fourteen lists of four items. For each list of four services, the respondents were asked to choose the one most important item from that list. –14 questions total –Each item appeared 7 times –Both question order, and the order of items within each question were randomized This enabled a comparison of all eight items, while significantly reducing respondent burden by not asking 36 separate questions comparing only two items at a time. Question number (RANDOMIZE Q43- Q56) Item 1 Item 2 Item 3 Item 4 43 1 2 3 5 44 2 3 4 8 45 2 4 5 6 46 1 3 7 8 47 1 3 4 6 48 4 6 7 8 49 1 2 4 7 50 3 5 6 8 51 1 4 5 8 52 2 3 6 7 53 1 5 6 7 54 2 5 7 8 55 3 4 5 7 56 1 2 6 8 EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 29 Modified Pairwise Comparison Results Question number (RANDOMIZED) Item 1 Item 2 Item 3 Item 4 43 BART (37%) Buses (15%) Highways (34%) Bike lanes and paths (14%) 44 Buses (20%) Highways (27%) Traffic smoothing on major roads (36%) Technology (18%) 45 Buses (23%) Traffic smoothing on major roads (47%) Bike lanes and paths (13%) Sidewalks and crosswalks (17%) 46 BART (34%) Highways (23%) Pothole repair (30%) Technology (14%) 47 BART (33%) Highways (22%) Traffic smoothing on major roads (31%) Sidewalks and crosswalks (14%) 48 Traffic smoothing on major roads (39%) Sidewalks and crosswalks (12%) Pothole repair (33%) Technology (16%) 49 BART (27%) Buses (15%) Traffic smoothing on major roads (30%) Pothole repair (28%) 50 Highways (45%) Bike lanes and paths (16%) Sidewalks and crosswalks (15%) Technology (24%) 51 BART (33%) Traffic smoothing on major roads (40%) Bike lanes and paths (13%) Technology (14%) 52 Buses (18%) Highways (36%) Sidewalks and crosswalks (12%) Pothole repair (34%) 53 BART (39%) Bike lanes and paths (9%) Sidewalks and crosswalks (12%) Pothole repair (40%) 54 Buses (21%) Bike lanes and paths (12%) Pothole repair (45%) Technology (21%) 55 Highways (27%) Traffic smoothing on major roads (29%) Bike lanes and paths (11%) Pothole repair (33%) 56 BART (40%) Buses (18%) Sidewalks and crosswalks (19%) Technology (23%) EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 30 Priority Scores (The scores are calculated using the percentage of times each item was chosen. They range from 0 to 100 where 0 means nobody chose that item and 100 means everyone chose that item in every instance) 36 35 35 27 19 19 14 11 Traffic smoothing on major roads Pothole repair BART Highways Technology Buses Sidewalks and crosswalks Bike lanes and paths Priority Ranking Scores - Overall Q43-46. Of the four things I just read you, which one would be your highest priority to increase funding for in Contra Costa County? EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 31 Priority Ranking Scores – Regional Comparison Voters prioritize traffic smoothing, BART and pothole repair in all regions. Highways are a top priority among San Ramon and East Contra Costa voters. Q43-46. Of the four things I just read you, which one would be your highest priority to increase funding for in Contra Costa County? Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Traffic smoothing on major roads 36 30 39 41 29 36 Pothole repair 35 38 33 34 33 35 BART 35 34 33 36 44 33 Highways 27 23 24 33 24 33 Buses 19 24 20 14 18 15 Technology 19 19 17 21 23 17 Bike lanes and paths 11 10 12 9 12 11 Sidewalks and crosswalks 14 17 17 7 13 14 EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 32 Q43-56: Total number of times each item was chosen (7 is the maximum number of times each item could be chosen) 10 15 14 5 5 4 21 16 16 14 8 7 6 4 30 25 26 33 18 22 19 14 20 16 14 21 19 19 18 17 4.97 4.38 4.10 4.40 3.63 3.53 3.11 2.78 Traffic smoothing on major roads Pothole repair BART Highways Buses Technology Sidewalks and crosswalks Bike lanes and paths 6 to 7 4 to 5 2 to 3 1 Mean Priority Ranking Frequency Q43-46. Of the four things I just read you, which one would be your highest priority to increase funding for in Contra Costa County? EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 33 Q43-56: Percentage not choosing each item (6 is the maximum number of times each item could be chosen) 64% 55% 49% 48% 30% 28% 27% 19% Bike lanes and paths Sidewalks and crosswalks Buses Technology BART Pothole repair Highways Traffic smoothing on major roads % Never choose item Priority Ranking Frequency Q43-46. Of the four things I just read you, which one would be your highest priority to increase funding for in Contra Costa County? EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 34 Q57-93. Now I’d like to read you some of the specific projects and programs being considered for inclusion in the Contra Costa Countywide Transportation Plan. For each one, please tell me how important you think it is to include in the plan… 57% 57% 49% 49% 48% 48% 45% 40% 38% 37% 32% 30% 34% 37% 34% 30% 31% 33% 42% 40% 88% 87% 83% 86% 83% 79% 77% 73% 80% 77% Q85-89. Synchronize traffic lights along major roads (region-specific) Q67. Improve safety in BART stations and parking lots Q73. Better coordinate BART and bus schedules to make connections easier with less waiting Q83. Use technology to improve traffic flow on major roads when there is an accident on the freeway Q61. Increase parking at all BART stations in Contra Costa County Q58. Extend BART to Brentwood in East Contra Costa County Q77. Improve the intersection of Highways 4 & 680 Q59. Create a new BART line that connects Dublin to Walnut Creek with stops in Danville and at Bishop… Q90. Extend freeway on-ramp lanes to the next off- ramp to reduce accidents & make traffic flow more… Q68. Replace BART's forty year old rail cars Very Important Somewhat Important Total Improvement Priorities – Top Items Overall EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 35 57% 48% 48% 40% 37% 35% 30% 27% 30% 34% 30% 33% 40% 37% 35% 38% 87% 83% 79% 73% 77% 71% 66% 64% Q67. Improve safety in BART stations and parking lots Q61. Increase parking at all BART stations in Contra Costa County Q58. Extend BART to Brentwood in East Contra Costa County Q59. Create a new BART line that connects Dublin to Walnut Creek with stops in Danville and at Bishop… Q68. Replace BART's forty year old rail cars Q60. More frequent BART trains at stations in Contra Costa County Q57. Extend BART up the I-80 Corridor between Richmond and Hercules. Q66. Mobile apps and electronic signs to help me quickly find parking at BART Very Important Somewhat Important Total Improvement Priorities – BART Q57-93. Now I’d like to read you some of the specific projects and programs being considered for inclusion in the Contra Costa Countywide Transportation Plan. For each one, please tell me how important you think it is to include in the plan… EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 36 47% 49% 48% 49% 47% 45% 47% 52% 51% 58% 36% 32% 32% 31% 36% 31% 34% 17% 36% 28% 82% 81% 80% 80% 83% 76% 81% 69% 87% 86% WEST Q61. [West] Increase parking at all BART stations in CCC Q65. …at Richmond, Del Norte & El Cerrito Plaza BART CENTRAL Q61. [Central] Increase parking at all BART stations in CCC Q63. …at WC, PH, Concord & N Concord BART SAN RAMON Q61. [San Ramon] Increase parking at all BART stations in CCC Q62. …at Orinda, Lafayette & WC BART LAMORINDA Q61. [Lamorinda] Increase parking at all BART stations in CCC Q62. …at Orinda, Lafayette & WC BART EAST Q61. [East] Increase parking at all BART stations in CCC Q64. …at Pittsburg/Bay Point, N Concord & Concord BART Very Important Somewhat Important Total BART Parking – Local vs. Countywide Q57-93. Now I’d like to read you some of the specific projects and programs being considered for inclusion in the Contra Costa Countywide Transportation Plan. For each one, please tell me how important you think it is to include in the plan… EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 37 Q57. How important it is to include in the plan: Extend BART up the I-80 Corridor between Richmond and Hercules. 30% 52% 30% 18% 24% 22% 35% 33% 37% 27% 32% 41% 66% 85% 67% 45% 56% 64% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total BART Extension: I-80 Corridor EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 38 Q58. How important it is to include in the plan: Extend BART to Brentwood in East Contra Costa County. 48% 39% 48% 32% 39% 71% 30% 34% 33% 36% 35% 18% 79% 73% 81% 68% 74% 89% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total BART Extension: To Brentwood EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 39 Q59. How important it is to include in the plan: Create a new BART line that connects Dublin to Walnut Creek with stops in Danville and at Bishop Ranch in San Ramon 40% 28% 50% 43% 37% 36% 33% 47% 28% 19% 40% 34% 73% 75% 78% 63% 77% 70% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total BART Extension: Dublin-Walnut Creek EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 40 49% 35% 34% 32% 21% 34% 41% 42% 38% 32% 83% 77% 76% 69% 53% Q73. Better coordinate BART and bus schedules to make connections easier with less waiting Q70. Use smaller buses on routes with fewer riders Q71. Mobile apps that make riding the bus easier and more convenient, like real-time bus arrival times and stop notifications Q69. More frequent buses Q72. Create dedicated bus-only lanes along major commute corridors, like I-80 and I-680 Very Important Somewhat Important Total Improvement Priorities – Bus Q57-93. Now I’d like to read you some of the specific projects and programs being considered for inclusion in the Contra Costa Countywide Transportation Plan. For each one, please tell me how important you think it is to include in the plan… EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 41 Q72. How important it is to include in the plan: Create dedicated bus-only lanes along major commute corridors, like I-80 and I-680. 21% 30% 19% 8% 13% 29% 32% 29% 34% 25% 29% 39% 53% 59% 52% 33% 42% 68% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total Bus-Only Lanes EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 42 45% 34% 33% 26% 20% 18% 31% 33% 29% 34% 31% 35% 77% 67% 62% 60% 51% 53% Q77. Improve the intersection of Highways 4 & 680 Q74. Widen and improve Highway 4 in East Contra Costa County Q76. Widen and improve Vasco Rd. between Brentwood and Livermore Q79. Improve the intersection of Highway 80 & San Pablo Dam Rd. Q75. Create a new highway that connects Brentwood and Tracy Q78. Improvements along the Richmond Parkway Very Important Somewhat Important Total Improvement Priorities – Highway Q57-93. Now I’d like to read you some of the specific projects and programs being considered for inclusion in the Contra Costa Countywide Transportation Plan. For each one, please tell me how important you think it is to include in the plan… EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 43 Q77. How important it is to include in the plan: Improve the intersection of Highways 4 and 680. 45% 40% 46% 26% 22% 70% 31% 33% 35% 36% 34% 21% 77% 73% 80% 62% 56% 92% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total Highway 4 & 680 Intersection EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 44 Q74. How important it is to include in the plan: Widen and improve Highway 4 in East Contra Costa County from Discovery Bay to Highway 5 near Stockton. 34% 34% 30% 18% 18% 55% 33% 29% 38% 30% 38% 28% 67% 63% 69% 48% 57% 83% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total Widen & Improve Highway 4 EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 45 Q76. How important it is to include in the plan: Widen and improve Vasco Rd. between Brentwood and Livermore. 33% 19% 28% 31% 27% 55% 29% 28% 33% 28% 21% 29% 62% 47% 61% 59% 48% 84% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total Vasco Road Improvements EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 46 Q79. How important it is to include in the plan: Improve the intersection of Highway 80 and San Pablo Dam Rd. 26% 50% 18% 13% 28% 23% 34% 29% 38% 32% 31% 38% 60% 79% 56% 44% 59% 61% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total I-80 & San Pablo Dam Rd. Intersection EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 47 Q75. How important it is to include in the plan: Create a new highway that connects Brentwood and Tracy. 20% 17% 17% 10% 9% 39% 31% 27% 36% 25% 25% 32% 51% 45% 52% 35% 34% 71% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total New Highway: Brentwood-Tracy EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 48 Q78. How important it is to include in the plan: Improvements along the Richmond Parkway, including a new overpass at San Pablo Ave. and new on and off ramps at Highway 580. 18% 26% 16% 8% 8% 24% 35% 44% 33% 28% 42% 34% 53% 70% 49% 36% 50% 58% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total Richmond Parkway Improvements EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 49 57% 49% 38% 30% 21% 27% 32% 37% 42% 42% 39% 31% 88% 86% 80% 72% 60% 58% Q85-89. Synchronize traffic lights along major roads (region-specific) Q83. Use technology to improve traffic flow on major roads when there is an accident on the freeway Q90. Extend freeway on-ramp lanes to the next off- ramp to reduce accidents & make traffic flow more freely Q81. Use metering lights on freeway on-ramps to reduce accidents and make traffic flow more freely Q82. Create ramps that go directly from carpool lanes on the freeways to major job centers Q84. Turn carpool lanes into Express Lanes that solo drivers can pay to use while remaining free for carpools Very Important Somewhat Important Total Improvement Priorities – Traffic Flow Q57-93. Now I’d like to read you some of the specific projects and programs being considered for inclusion in the Contra Costa Countywide Transportation Plan. For each one, please tell me how important you think it is to include in the plan… EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 50 57% 62% 56% 56% 54% 52% 32% 29% 35% 31% 33% 34% 88% 90% 91% 87% 86% 86% Q85-89. [All regions combined] Synchronize traffic lights along major roads Q87. [Central] Synchronize traffic lights along major roads, including Ygnacio Valley Rd., Taylor Blvd., Treat Blvd. and Clayton Rd. Q89. [West] Synchronize traffic lights along major roads, including San Pablo Ave., San Pablo Dam Rd. and Pinole Valley Rd. Q86. [Lamorinda] Synchronize traffic lights along major roads, including Mt. Diablo Blvd., Pleasant Hill Rd. and North and South Main Q85. [San Ramon] Synchronize traffic lights along major roads, including Crow Canyon Rd., Camino Tassajara and Alcosta Blvd. Q88. [East] Synchronize traffic lights along major roads, including Willow Pass, Kirker Pass and Buchanan Roads Very Important Somewhat Important Total Synchronize Traffic Lights – Local vs. Countywide Q57-93. Now I’d like to read you some of the specific projects and programs being considered for inclusion in the Contra Costa Countywide Transportation Plan. For each one, please tell me how important you think it is to include in the plan… EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 51 Q82. How important it is to include in the plan: Create ramps that go directly from carpool lanes on the freeways to major job centers, like Bishop Ranch. 21% 23% 20% 16% 11% 26% 39% 42% 37% 30% 44% 44% 60% 65% 57% 47% 55% 70% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total Carpool Lane Ramps EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 52 36% 33% 28% 24% 40% 38% 34% 38% 76% 71% 62% 62% Q91. Make it easier for people to access real-time traffic info on their mobile devices Q80. Lighting and safety improvements in the three older bores of the Caldecott Tunnel Q93. Expanded ferry service to San Francisco Q92. Improve major biking & walking routes Very Important Somewhat Important Total Improvement Priorities – Safety & Other Q57-93. Now I’d like to read you some of the specific projects and programs being considered for inclusion in the Contra Costa Countywide Transportation Plan. For each one, please tell me how important you think it is to include in the plan… EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 53 Q80. How important it is to include in the plan: Lighting and safety improvements in the three older bores of the Caldecott Tunnel. 33% 31% 34% 18% 27% 47% 38% 39% 41% 43% 33% 32% 71% 69% 75% 61% 60% 79% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total Caldecott Tunnel Improvements EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 54 Q93. How important it is to include in the plan: Expanded ferry service to San Francisco. 28% 42% 25% 17% 21% 31% 34% 27% 37% 31% 28% 40% 62% 69% 62% 48% 49% 71% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Very Important Somewhat Important Total Ferry Service to San Francisco Brand Ratings EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 56 Agency Favorability Nearly half of Contra Costa voters either haven’t heard or can’t rate CCTA. Of those who rate the agency, over 3 out of 4 are favorable of CCTA. 72% 61% 38% 5% 15% 50% 23% 24% 12% 3.14 2.51 3.29 Q17. Bay Area Rapid Transit System, or BART Q19. California Department of Transportation, or Caltrans Q18. Contra Costa Transportation Authority, or CCTA Favorable Can't Rate/Never Heard Unfavorable Favorability Ratio Q17-19. I'm going to read you a list of organizations and I'd like you to tell me if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or strongly unfavorable opinion of each one… EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 57 CCTA Favorability – Benefits Message 94. (SAMPLE A) The Contra Costa Transportation Authority is responsible for maintaining and improving Contra Costa’s transportation system. They plan, fund, and deliver critical transportation infrastructure projects and programs that connect our communities, foster a strong economy, reduce congestion, and safely and efficiently keep Contra Costa moving. The Authority manages the funds generated by a voter-approved transportation sales tax and serves as the county's Congestion Management Agency. Having heard this, would you now say you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or strongly unfavorable opinion of the Contra Costa Transportation Authority? Now I’m going to read you a description of the Contra Costa Transportation Authority…. 73% 7% 20% Favorable Don't know Unfavorable Positioning Statement A EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 58 CCTA Favorability – Funding Message Now I’m going to read you a description of the Contra Costa Transportation Authority…. 94. (SAMPLE B) The Contra Costa Transportation Authority is responsible for maintaining and improving Contra Costa’s transportation system. They get you where you need to go by providing critical funding for local street repair, highway improvements, BART, AC Transit, and major transportation projects like the Caldecott Tunnel. As the county's Congestion Management Agency, they fund innovative programs to reduce congestion and promote alternative transportation. The Authority manages the funds generated by a voter-approved transportation sales tax. Having heard this, would you now say you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or strongly unfavorable opinion of the Contra Costa Transportation Authority? 74% 8% 17% Favorable Don't know Unfavorable Positioning Statement B EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 59 CCTA Favorability– Pre & Post-Positioning Now I’m going to read you a description of the Contra Costa Transportation Authority. 39% 73% 38% 74% 49% 7% 51% 8% 12% 20% 11% 17% + 26% + 30% Q18. CCTA initial rating Q94A. CCTA [after A statement] Q18. CCTA initial rating Q94B. CCTA [after B statement] Favorable Don't know Unfavorable Net Change Sample A Sample B EMC 13-4993 & 13-5035 CCTA Research | 60 The mood of the public, particularly in East County, is improving along with the economy Most Contra Costans want traffic smoothing, road repair, and more/better BART –Other projects and programs have narrower, but still passionate, audiences An augmentation and extension of the Contra Costa County Transportation Sales Tax may be feasible in even a moderate- turnout election –Traffic smoothing, road repair, and BART should be central features –Technology is a tool for improvements, not an end in itself –Each region of the county has locally-specific interests, and communications should be tailored Conclusions Contra Costa Transportation Authority Contra Costa County Voter Research 2014 Survey 2 CCTA Board – March 19, 2014 EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 2 Region Subgroups 21% 23% 32% 16% 8% EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 3 Please note that due to rounding, some percentages may not add up to exactly 100%. Telephone survey of registered voters in Contra Costa County Interviewing conducted March 3-10, 2014 606 total interviews countywide; Margin of Error = + 3.98 points Weighted to reflect overall countywide likely November 2016 voter population using key demographics Interviewing started trained, professional interviewers Where applicable, results compared with survey conducted January 21st – February 5th, 2014 (n=814; MoE: + 5.6 % points) Methodology Region Number of Interviews (Unweighted n) Margin of Error (+/-) Unweighted % Weighted % West 114 n 9.2 pts 19% 17% Central 174 7.4 29 33 San Ramon Valley 97 10.0 16 16 Lamorinda 79 11.0 13 10 East 142 8.2 23 25 Summary EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 5 Key Findings 1.The results of the March survey match the January survey About 2/3rds of Contra Costa voters are willing to augment the current transportation measure In both surveys, 68% say they would vote yes on a county transportation measure 2.Voters are more supportive of a measure that continues the work of the current measure than they are of one that appears to be new 3.The survey shows a vote ceiling near 70% and a floor near 60% Information about possible projects and programs does little to improve support from the initial vote Information that is critical of the measure drops support below the two -thirds level 4.Lower propensity voters are most supportive of a transportation measure Modeling for 2014 shows a net decrease of four (4) points as compared to 2016 EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 6 Sales Tax Increase & Extension (Sample A) Over two-thirds of voters support an increase and extension of the existing County sales tax. Q8. [Sales Tax Increase/Extension Vote – Full text above] 68% 6% 26% Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject All Countywide Voters The following measure may be on a future ballot in Contra Costa County: Shall voters authorize implementing the Contra Costa County twenty-five year Transportation Expenditure Plan to: •Expand BART in Contra Costa County; •Improve transit connections to jobs and schools; •Fix roads, improve highways and increase bicycle and pedestrian safety; •Reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality; •Enhance transit services for seniors and people with disabilities? Approval increases by half a cent and extends the existing County sales tax, with independent oversight and audits. All money spent will benefit Contra Costa County residents. If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 7 Measure Support – January and March Surveys Support for an increase and extension is unchanged since the January survey. Q8-Q9. [Sales Tax Vote – Sample A & Sample B] 68% 68% 3% 6% 29% 26% January '14*March '14 Increase/Extension (Sample A) Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject *January 2014 ballot language was the same as Sample A ballot language EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 8 New Sales Tax (Sample B) Nearly two-thirds of voters support authorizing a half cent sales tax. Q9. [New Sales Tax Vote – Full text above] 65% 7% 29% Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject All Countywide Voters The following measure may be on a future ballot in Contra Costa County: Shall voters authorize implementing the Contra Costa County twenty-five year Transportation Expenditure Plan to: •Expand BART in Contra Costa County; •Improve transit connections to jobs and schools; •Fix roads, improve highways and increase bicycle and pedestrian safety; •Reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality; •Enhance transit services for seniors and people with disabilities? Approval authorizes a half cent sales tax, with independent oversight and audits. All money spent will benefit Contra Costa County residents. If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 9 Measure Support – Overall There is higher support for a measure that indicates a sales tax already exists. Q8-Q9. [Sales Tax Vote – Sample A & Sample B] 68% 68% 65% 3% 6% 7% 29% 26% 29% January '14*March '14 Increase/Extension (Sample A) March '14 Augmentation (Sample B) Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject *January 2014 ballot language was the same as Sample A ballot language EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 10 Local Funding Support – Vote After All Information Information that is critical of the measure drops support below 2/3rds. Q64. [Sales Tax Vote – After All Information] 68% 69% 69% 60% 6% 6% 6% 6% 26% 25% 25% 34% Initial Vote Elements Positives Negatives Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject 65% 68% 67% 62% 7% 6% 6% 6% 29% 25% 27% 32% Initial Vote Elements Positives Negatives Support for Sales Tax Increase & Extension (Sample A) Support for Augmentation (Sample B) EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 11 Vote arcs (Contra Costa & Alameda) 68% 69% 69% 60% 72% 75% 62% 69% 77% 79% 71% 77% 75% 73% 81% 84% 84% 75% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Initial vote After elements After positives After negatives CCTA 2014 (Increase + Extend)CCTA 2004 ACTC 2011 ACTC 2013 ACTA 2000 Initial vote questions have been highly predictive. 2012 Measure B3: 66.6% 2004 Measure J: 71% 2000 Measure B: 81.5% EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 12 68% 75% 63% 59% 6% 6% 6% 7% 26% 19% 31% 34% + 41% + 57% + 32% + 25% 0%33%67%100% Overall Low (voted 0-3/6) Medium (voted 4-5/6) High (voted 6/6) Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject Net Sales Tax Increase & Extension – by Vote History (Sample A) Support for an increase and extension is highest among low propensity voters. Q8. [Sales Tax Increase/Extension Vote] If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 13 68% 66% 65% 64% 6% 6% 7% 7% 26% 28% 29% 30% + 42% + 38% + 36% + 34% 0%33%67%100% November 2016 November 2014 November 2016 November 2014 Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject Net 2016 & 2014 Election Models 2014 modeling shows a net four (4) point drop. Increase & Extension (Sample A) Augmentation (Sample B) Q8-Q9. [Sales Tax Vote – Sample A & Sample B] Low propensity Medium propensity High propensity Nov. 2016 46% 29% 25% Nov. 2014 32% 40% 28% Full Report EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 15 Demographics by Region Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Dem 50% 64% 51% 37% 47% 48% Rep 26% 11% 27% 43% 27% 23% DTS/Oth 24% 25% 21% 20% 25% 29% Male 45% 43% 44% 47% 47% 44% Female 55% 57% 56% 53% 53% 56% 18-49 38% 37% 34% 45% 31% 44% 50-64 34% 34% 34% 31% 38% 36% 65+ 27% 30% 32% 24% 31% 20% Voted 6/6 (perfect voter) 25% 30% 25% 26% 34% 18% Voted 4-5 / 6 29% 27% 32% 32% 27% 28% Voted 0-3 / 6 46% 43% 43% 43% 39% 54% Revenue Measure EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 17 Sales Tax Increase & Extension (Sample A) Over two-thirds of voters support an increase and extension of the existing County sales tax. Q8. [Sales Tax Increase/Extension Vote – Full text above] 68% 6% 26% Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject All Countywide Voters The following measure may be on a future ballot in Contra Costa County: Shall voters authorize implementing the Contra Costa County twenty-five year Transportation Expenditure Plan to: •Expand BART in Contra Costa County; •Improve transit connections to jobs and schools; •Fix roads, improve highways and increase bicycle and pedestrian safety; •Reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality; •Enhance transit services for seniors and people with disabilities? Approval increases by half a cent and extends the existing County sales tax, with independent oversight and audits. All money spent will benefit Contra Costa County residents. If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 18 Measure Support – January and March Surveys Support for an increase and extension is unchanged since the January survey. Q8-Q9. [Sales Tax Vote – Sample A & Sample B] 68% 68% 3% 6% 29% 26% January '14*March '14 Increase/Extension (Sample A) Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject *January 2014 ballot language was the same as Sample A ballot language EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 19 New Sales Tax (Sample B) Nearly two-thirds of voters support authorizing a half cent sales tax. Q9. [New Sales Tax Vote – Full text above] 65% 7% 29% Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject All Countywide Voters The following measure may be on a future ballot in Contra Costa County: Shall voters authorize implementing the Contra Costa County twenty-five year Transportation Expenditure Plan to: •Expand BART in Contra Costa County; •Improve transit connections to jobs and schools; •Fix roads, improve highways and increase bicycle and pedestrian safety; •Reduce traffic congestion and improve air quality; •Enhance transit services for seniors and people with disabilities? Approval authorizes a half cent sales tax, with independent oversight and audits. All money spent will benefit Contra Costa County residents. If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 20 Measure Support – Overall There is higher support for a measure that indicates a sales tax already exists. Q8-Q9. [Sales Tax Vote – Sample A & Sample B] 68% 68% 65% 3% 6% 7% 29% 26% 29% January '14*March '14 Increase/Extension (Sample A) March '14 Augmentation (Sample B) Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject *January 2014 ballot language was the same as Sample A ballot language EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 21 Local Funding Support – Vote After All Information Information that is critical of the measure drops support below 2/3rds. Q64. [Sales Tax Vote – After All Information] 68% 69% 69% 60% 6% 6% 6% 6% 26% 25% 25% 34% Initial Vote Elements Positives Negatives Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject 65% 68% 67% 62% 7% 6% 6% 6% 29% 25% 27% 32% Initial Vote Elements Positives Negatives Support for Sales Tax Increase & Extension (Sample A) Support for Augmentation (Sample B) EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 22 Vote arcs (Contra Costa & Alameda) 68% 69% 69% 60% 72% 75% 62% 69% 77% 79% 71% 77% 75% 73% 81% 84% 84% 75% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% Initial vote After elements After positives After negatives CCTA 2014 (Increase + Extend)CCTA 2004 ACTC 2011 ACTC 2013 ACTA 2000 Initial vote questions have been highly predictive. 2012 Measure B3: 66.6% 2004 Measure J: 71% 2000 Measure B: 81.5% EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 23 Sales Tax Increase & Extension – by Region (Sample A) Support for an increase and extension is highest in Central and Lamorinda. Q8. [Sales Tax Increase/Extension Vote] If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? 68% 72% 71% 68% 66% 60% 6% 3% 8% 8% 1% 10% 26% 25% 21% 24% 33% 30% + 41% + 47% + 50% + 44% + 33% + 30% 0%33%67%100% Overall Lamorinda Central West East San Ramon Valley Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject Net EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 24 65% 75% 65% 64% 61% 52% 7% 4% 6% 8% 9% 6% 29% 22% 28% 28% 30% 41% + 36% + 53% + 37% + 36% + 31% + 11% 0%33%67%100% Overall West East Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject Net Augmentation – by Region (Sample B) Support for augmentation is highest in the West. Q9. [Augmentation Vote] If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 25 68% 72% 71% 68% 66% 60% 65% 52% 64% 75% 65% 61% Overall Lamorinda Central West East San Ramon Valley Measure Support by Region % Yes - Increase & Extend (A) % Yes - Augment (B) Sales Tax Increase & Extension by Region – Samples A & B The drop off is most pronounced in Lamorinda. Q8. [Sales Tax Votes] If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 26 68% 75% 70% 66% 63% 61% 68% 66% 68% 71% 72% 60% 68% 71% 69% 68% 68% 61% Overall East West Central Lamorinda San Ramon Valley Averaged Support for Measure over Two Surveys % Yes - Survey 1 % Yes - Survey 2 % Yes - Average Sales Tax Increase & Extension by Region – Averaged Support Accounting for the margin of error (by averaging), still shows strong support in the East & West. Q8. [Sales Tax Increase/Extension Vote] If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 27 68% 75% 63% 59% 6% 6% 6% 7% 26% 19% 31% 34% + 41% + 57% + 32% + 25% 0%33%67%100% Overall Low (voted 0-3/6) Medium (voted 4-5/6) High (voted 6/6) Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject Net Sales Tax Increase & Extension – by Vote History (Sample A) Support for an increase and extension is highest among low propensity voters. Q8. [Sales Tax Increase/Extension Vote] If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 28 65% 68% 62% 62% 7% 8% 8% 3% 29% 24% 30% 36% + 36% + 44% + 32% + 26% 0%33%67%100% Overall Low (voted 0-3/6) Medium (voted 4-5/6) High (voted 6/6) Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject Net Augmentation – by Vote History (Sample B) Support for a new tax is also highest among low propensity voters. Q9. [Augmentation Vote] If this measure were on the ballot today, are you likely to vote yes to approve it, or no to reject it? EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 29 68% 66% 65% 64% 6% 6% 7% 7% 26% 28% 29% 30% + 42% + 38% + 36% + 34% 0%33%67%100% November 2016 November 2014 November 2016 November 2014 Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject Net 2016 & 2014 Election Models 2014 modeling shows a net four (4) point drop. Increase & Extension (Sample A) Augmentation (Sample B) Q8-Q9. [Sales Tax Vote – Sample A & Sample B] Low propensity Medium propensity High propensity Nov. 2016 46% 29% 25% Nov. 2014 32% 40% 28% EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 30 Measure Elements Focusing exclusively on the tax still brings majority support, but not 2/3rds. Q10-Q41. Now I'm going to read you some of the specific elements of the ballot measure. After each please tell me if you support or oppose that particular element. 72% 49% 51% 30% 28% 29% 24% 24% 16% 28% 24% 27% 28% 26% 27% 27% 88% 78% 76% 58% 56% 54% 51% 51% Q28. Include a detailed plan that shows exactly how all of the money will be spent Q26. Include independent oversight and audits Q27. Benefit Contra Costa County residents Q22. (SAMPLE A ONLY) Increase the existing 1/2 cent county transportation sales tax by 1/2 cent Q24. (SAMPLE B ONLY) Authorize a new 1/2 cent county transportation sales tax that would expire in 2039 Q25. Authorize a one cent sales tax for transportation in Contra Costa County Q21. Authorize a 25 year Transportation Sales Tax for Contra Costa County Q23. (SAMPLE A ONLY) Extend the county transportation sales tax until 2039 Strongly Support Somewhat Support Total Support Projects and Programs EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 32 Projects/Programs - Top Repairing of potholes is strongly supported by 2/3rds of voters. Q10-Q41. Now I'm going to read you some of the specific elements of the ballot measure. After each please tell me if you support or oppose that particular element. 68% 62% 59% 60% 55% 55% 52% 19% 24% 26% 24% 26% 26% 28% 87% 86% 86% 84% 81% 81% 81% Q18. Repair potholes and road surfaces Q20. Enhance transit services for seniors and people with disabilities Q39. Better maintain the roads and services we already have Q12. Fix roads Q13. Improve highways Q29. Better coordinate BART and bus schedules to make connections easier with less waiting Q35. Smooth traffic flow on major roads by synchronizing lights and adding turn lanes Strongly Support Somewhat Support Total Support EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 33 Projects/Programs, cont. Many projects and programs have support well in excess of 2/3rds. Q10-Q41. Now I'm going to read you some of the specific elements of the ballot measure. After each please tell me if you support or oppose that particular element. 56% 56% 53% 51% 54% 54% 52% 24% 24% 27% 29% 26% 25% 27% 80% 80% 80% 80% 79% 79% 79% Q15. Reduce traffic congestion Q16. Improve air quality Q14. Increase bicycle and pedestrian safety Q17. Smooth traffic flow on highways, streets, and roads Q37. Improve major freeway intersections to smooth traffic and reduce bottlenecks Q11. Improve transit connections to jobs and schools Q19. Improve parking and safety for BART riders Strongly Support Somewhat Support Total Support EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 34 Projects/Programs, cont. Many projects and programs have support well in excess of 2/3rds. Q10-Q41. Now I'm going to read you some of the specific elements of the ballot measure. After each please tell me if you support or oppose that particular element. 52% 47% 45% 51% 49% 46% 45% 44% 35% 36% 23% 30% 31% 23% 27% 29% 28% 28% 31% 24% 76% 76% 76% 75% 75% 75% 73% 73% 66% 60% Q36. Install technology that keeps traffic flowing smoothly on major roads when there is an accident on the freeway Q30. Increase parking at Contra Costa County BART stations Q41. Improve and complete bike paths and sidewalks throughout the county Q10. Expand BART in Contra Costa County Q38. Use technology to make real-time travel information more easily available… Q33. Improve BART stations to allow BART to accommodate more riders and more frequent trains through the stations Q31. Replace BART’s 40 year old rail cars Q32. Allow more frequent BART trains to reduce waiting time on BART platforms Q40. Support new ferry service from points in Contra Costa County to San Francisco Q34. Support building housing near BART or transit stations to encourage neighborhoods where people aren’t as … Strongly Support Somewhat Support Total Support EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 35 Local Funding Support – Vote After Projects/Programs Measure elements, including clarification on the tax amount, equalizes the two approaches. Q42. [Sales Tax Vote – After Measure Elements] 68% 69% 6% 6% 26% 25% Initial Vote Vote 2 Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject 65% 68% 7% 6% 29% 25% Initial Vote Vote 2 Support for Sales Tax Increase & Extension (Sample A) Support for Augmentation (Sample B) Impact of Information EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 37 Measure Information - Top No argument moves more than 2/3rds of voters to yes. Q49-Q56. Now I’m going to read you some things people might say about the transportation sales tax ballot measure. After each statement, please tell me if it would make you less likely or more likely to support this measure, on a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 means much less likely to support it and 7 means much more likely to support it. 30% 33% 31% 31% 18% 15% 12% 16% 19% 18% 22% 19% 5.16 5.15 5.10 5.07 Q56. Measure allows us to continue improving local transportation systems, like Caldecott, Hwy 4, and BART extensions, all only possible because of local transportation measure Q49. All money raised by this measure will be spent to improve transportation for the people who live in Contra Costa County Q53. This measure will make it easier for people in Contra Costa County to get where they need to go Q52. The improvements that will be made if this measure passes will attract new businesses and jobs to Contra Costa County so that people who live here could work here too 7- Much more likely to support 6 5 Mean EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 38 Measure Information - Bottom No argument moves more than 2/3rds of voters to yes. Q49-Q56. Now I’m going to read you some things people might say about the transportation sales tax ballot measure. After each statement, please tell me if it would make you less likely or more likely to support this measure, on a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 means much less likely to support it and 7 means much more likely to support it. 30% 29% 27% 24% 16% 15% 17% 15% 17% 19% 17% 19% 5.07 5.03 4.93 4.83 Q55. With local sales tax, CC able to get funding from state/fed govt at a rate of about 3 to 1 - every dollar raised locally, we get 3 towards transportation projects Q51. If this measure passes, every community in Contra Costa County will benefit with improvements to local roads, highways, BART, buses, and bike and pedestrian routes Q50. This measure makes improvements to BART so that it can serve more parts of the county with more trains running more often and be a more reliable system for all of us Q54. This measure gives CCC cutting-edge 21st century transportation system by installing modern road and transit technology and making real-time information accessible to all 7- Much more likely to support 6 5 Mean EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 39 Local Funding Support – Vote After Information No positive movement after positive information. Q57. [Sales Tax Vote – After Messages] 68% 69% 69% 6% 6% 6% 26% 25% 25% Initial Vote Vote 2 Vote 3 Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject 65% 68% 67% 7% 6% 6% 29% 25% 27% Initial Vote Vote 2 Vote 3 Support for Sales Tax Increase & Extension (Sample A) Support for Augmentation (Sample B) EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 40 Measure Negatives There is some concern about the sales tax rate. Q58-Q63. Now I’m going to read you a few more things people might say about the transportation sales tax ballot measure. After each statement, please tell me if it would make you less likely or more likely to support this measure, on a scale from 1 to 7, where 1 means much less likely to support it and 7 means much more likely to support it. 32% 22% 16% 13% 15% 13% 7% 6% 6% 8% 7% 6% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 10% 3.29 3.99 4.24 4.26 4.35 4.38 Q61. If measure passes, will increase the sales tax rate in some parts of CCC to 10%, highest in state Q63. This measure would double the county transportation sales tax to a whole cent, while extending it to 2039. Too much of an increase for CCC to bear Q59. With the economy just starting to show signs of improvement, now is not the right time to raise taxes Q62. Transportation improvements should be paid for by state and federal governments, not by our local government Q60. We just can’t trust the government to spend our tax dollars wisely Q58. There are more important things, like education, police & fire services, & securing water system, this is not the time for a new tax 1- Much less likely to support 2 3 Mean EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 41 Local Funding Support – Vote After Negatives Information that is critical of the measure drops support below 2/3rds. Q64. [Sales Tax Vote – After More Messages] 68% 69% 69% 60% 6% 6% 6% 6% 26% 25% 25% 34% Initial Vote Vote 2 Vote 3 Vote 4 Yes, Approve Undecided No, Reject 65% 68% 67% 62% 7% 6% 6% 6% 29% 25% 27% 32% Initial Vote Vote 2 Vote 3 Vote 4 Support for Sales Tax Increase & Extension (Sample A) Support for Augmentation (Sample B) Issue Environment EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 43 Bay Area: Right Direction/Wrong Track Half of Contra Costa voters think things in the Bay area are heading in the right direction. This sentiment is especially strong among Lamorinda voters. 51% 55% 53% 54% 61% 39% 20% 22% 20% 18% 10% 24% 29% 23% 27% 28% 30% 37% + 21% + 32% + 26% + 27% + 31% + 2% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Right Direction Don't know Wrong Track Net R/D Q5. Do you think things in the Bay Area are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 44 Contra Costa: Right Direction/Wrong Track A majority of voters believe things are going in the right direction for Contra Costa, in particular. 56% 53% 57% 65% 65% 46% 19% 23% 22% 14% 14% 17% 25% 23% 21% 22% 21% 37% + 30% + 30% + 37% + 43% + 44% + 9% Overall West Central San Ramon Valley Lamorinda East Right Direction Don't know Wrong Track Net R/D Q6. Do you think things in Contra Costa County are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 45 Contra Costa: Right Direction/Wrong Track 57% 45% 47% 36% 54% 56% 20% 12% 15% 21% 16% 19% 23% 43% 38% 43% 29% 25% 2001 2003 2004 2010 Jan. 2014 Mar. 2014 Right Direction Don't know Wrong Track Q6. Do you think things in Contra Costa County are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel that things are pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Since dropping in 2010, voters’ right direction sentiment has rebounded to near-2001 levels. EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 46 Need for Transportation Funding Q7. Would you say that there is a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funding for Contra Costa County’s transportation network? The vast majority of voters believe there is at least some need for additional transportation funding in Contra Costa County. 34% 36% 35% 42% 29% 25% 41% 42% 41% 33% 45% 48% 76% 78% 76% 75% 75% 73% Overall Central Lamorinda East West San Ramon Valley Great need Some need Total EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 47 Need for Transportation Funding Q7. Would you say that there is a great need for additional funding, some need, a little need, or no real need for additional funding for Contra Costa County’s transportation network? Voters’ perception of need for funding is over 2/3rds. 34% 30% 37% 41% 42% 39% 76% 72% 76% March 2014 Jan. 2014 2010 Great need Some need EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 48 Attitudes About Transportation Strong agreement for fix it first. Q43-Q48. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements? 37% 36% 31% 32% 31% 14% 31% 29% 33% 25% 19% 28% 68% 65% 65% 56% 50% 41% Q48. We should focus on repairing and maintaining the transportation systems we have, including our roads, highways, BART, and buses, instead of thinking about… Q46. Extending BART should be a top priority for the Bay Area Q45. It is crucial to have high quality roads and public transit, even if it means raising taxes Q47. Fixing potholes and maintaining roads should be our highest transportation priority, even if it means putting off other transportation projects and improvements Q44. Taxes are already high enough; I’ll vote against any increase in taxes Q43. I trust our local elected officials to properly manage our tax dollars. Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Total Agree EMC 14-5170 CCTA Research | 49 Contacts Alex Evans alex@emcresearch.com 510.550.8920 Sara LaBatt sara@emcresearch.com 510.550.8924 Jenny Regas jenny@emcresearch.com 510.550.8929 2014 Update Contra Costa Countywide Transportation Plan Issues and Opportunities March 2014 Commissioners Kevin Romick, Chair Council Member, City of Oakley Julie Pierce, Vice-Chair Mayor, City of Clayton Janet Abelson Mayor, City of El Cerrito Newell Arnerich Council Member, Town of Danville Tom Butt Council Member, City of Richmond David Durant Council Member, City of Pleasant Hill Federal Glover Board of Supervisors, District 5 Dave Hudson Council Member, City of San Ramon Mike Metcalf Council Member, Town of Moraga Karen Mitchoff Board of Supervisors, District 4 Robert Taylor Mayor, City of Brentwood Ex-Officio Members Amy Worth, MTC Joel Keller, BART Myrna de Vera, Bus Operators Randell H. Iwasaki, Executive Director 2999 Oak Road, Suite 100 Walnut Creek, CA 94597 925-256-4700 www.ccta.net A Message to Contra Costa Residents As our agency embarks on its 25th year, we are eager to build on the success and legacy of Measure J, the half-cent transportation sales tax approved by Contra Costa voters in 2004. Measure J has helped fund the Caldecott Tunnel’s fourth bore, improvements on I-680 and State Route 4, the I-80 Integrated Corridor Manage- ment project, expanded transit service, new bikeways and trails, and maintaining your local streets and roads. As we plan for the future, we want you to continue to share your opinions and stay involved in shaping our county’s transportation future. Every five years, the Contra Costa Transportation Authority (CCTA) evaluates and updates its Countywide Transportation Plan, or CTP, our 30-year blueprint for the county’s transportation future. With feedback from stakeholders throughout the county, updating the CTP helps ensure that we accurately plan, fund, and imple- ment your transportation vision for Contra Costa. The pages that follow describe the factors that may affect our net- work of roads, freeways, transit, sidewalks and trails over the next 30 years, as well as the vision and goals identified the last time we engaged you in this process. You will also find highlights of in- vestment projects we’ve accomplished through the CTP and funds from Measure C and Measure J. This brochure is our starting point for a 2014 update of the CTP. Your input is crucial for informing whether the path we’re on is the right one, or whether we need to chart a new course in addressing the issues and challenges facing our current transportation network. I encourage you to become involved in the 2014 CTP process and help us decide which projects are important and how we should spend any future revenue. The last page of this brochure describes how you can become involved in the 2014 CTP process. You can also email your comments directly to us at: 2014CTP@ccta.net. I look forward to working with you to create this new vision for Contra Costa’s transportation future. Sincerely, Randell H. Iwasaki, Executive Director Cover Photo: Caldecott Tunnel at night (by Karl Nielsen/Metropolitan Transportation Commission) Caldecott Tunnel (Photo by Karl Nielsen/Metropolitan Transportation Commission) Transit Oriented DevelopmentWalnut Creek BART Station Transportation Investments Made Through Measures C and J All of Contra Costa has benefitted from the trans- portation improvements funded by Measure J and  Measure C. The Caldecott Tunnel Fourth Bore, the widening of State Route 4, BART exten- sions in East County, new BART parking in West County, high occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, the I-80 Integrated Corridor Management project, railroad grade separations, and the Martinez multi- modal center were all funded. The measures also helped fund local street maintenance, transit and paratransit operations, school bus service, commute alternative programs, express buses, and transporta- tion for livable communities programs. Over the life of Measure J, transportation programs should receive about $1.56 billion or 58 percent of the estimated $2.7 billion in revenues expected. The remaining 42 percent, or $1.14 million, would go to specific transportation projects. Out of the $1.1 billion generated by Measure C, transporta- tion programs got about $344 million (one-third of the total), while the remaining $700 million went to projects, bond financing, and program/project management. All of the funding from the two measures goes to fund transportation projects and programs. SUMMARY OF SALES TAX EXPENDITURES (Rounded to Nearest $Million) PROJECT CATEGORIES PAST FUTURE TOTAL Roadways — highways, arterials & maintenance $755 $1,031 $1,786 Transit — rail, bus, express bus, ferry, paratransit, commute alternatives $434 $738 $1,172 Pedestrian & Bike — bicycle and pedestrian, Safe Routes to School $11 $323 $334 Other — financing costs and operations $144 $373 $517 Sum $1,344 $2,465 $3,809 TOTAL MEASURE J AND MEASURE C EXPENDITURES Leveraged Funds on Measure C/J Projects $1,721 $970 $2,691 Total Funds $6,500 1 Planning for Our Future: Contra Costa by the Numbers 2010–2040 As more people choose to live and work in the Bay Area, every county in our region will experience growth. Contra Costa’s expected growth — in the form of population, jobs, households, and residents — will strain our current transportation resources and increase travel and commute time within the transportation network. To minimize these impacts, it is vital that our roads and highways and our transit and bike facilities can meet the challenges of a growing population. Contra Costa County Population Growth, 2010-2040 by Region - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 Central (TRANSPAC) East (TRANSPLAN) Lamorinda (LPMC) TriValley (TVTC) West (WCCTAC) Contra Costa County Population Growth, 2010-2040 by Region 2040 Population 2010 Population - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Central (TRANSPAC) East (TRANSPLAN) Lamorinda (LPMC) TriValley (TVTC) West (WCCTAC) Contra Costa County Job Growth, 2010-2040 by Region 2040 Jobs 2010 Jobs Contra Costa County Job Growth, 2010-2040 by Region Vehicle miles traveled in Contra Costa will increase 18 percent by 2040 2 Challenges Ahead Population in Contra Costa has grown continually over the past several decades. Census data shows that our population grew from 804,000 in 1990 to just over one million residents in 2010. New fore- casts for the region indicate that, while growth is slowing slightly, Contra Costa is estimated to add another 270,000 residents between 2010 and 2040, an increase of about 27 percent. Job growth, however, is expected to speed up. Be- tween 1990 and 2010, Contra Costa added about 50,000 jobs, a 17 percent increase. We’re expecting to add over 122,000 jobs, a 36 percent increase, by 2040, raising the total to half a million jobs. While both jobs and population will increase into 2040, some areas of the county will grow faster than others. The chart on the previous page shows the expected countywide population growth by sub-region. Population growth in East County is expected to be the highest, at 41 percent, followed by the Tri-Valley, at 33 percent. Additionally, the Lamorinda and Central areas are expected to ex- perience less growth, at 13 and 20 percent, respec- tively. How We Get to Work Commuters in Contra Costa have a variety of op- tions for their daily commute: drive alone, carpool, use transit, walk, or bike. More recently, many companies have begun to allow employees to “tele- commute” or work from home. What has changed most dramatically over the 30 years between 1980 and 2010 are the number of people who now indicate they work from home and the number of people who commute togeth- er. As shown above, the percentage of people who work from home has more than doubled, from 1.9 percent in 1980 to 5.6 percent in 2010. The economy is also recovering from the recent recession. As shown in the chart on the next page, unemployment levels are expected to continue dropping towards pre-recession levels. Highway 4 widening construction Treat Boulevard pedestrian overcrossingInterstate 680 improvements Title:  Work  From  Home:  Share  of  Commute  Trips  in  Contra  Costa        Title:  Carpools:  Share  of  Commute  Trips  in  Contra  Costa       0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1980 1990 2000 2010 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 1980 1990 2000 2010 Work From Home: Share of Commute Trips in Contra Costa 3 HOV lanes on I-680 will increase traffic carrying capacity Mount Diablo and other open space, protected by urban limit linesBike lockers at Pleasant Hill BART Station Unemployment Rate, 2007-2103What Does this Mean for Traffic? The worst days of the Great Recession seem to be ending, welcome news for the economy and resi- dents of the Bay Area. This also means, however, more people on the road and on BART, making for heavier traffic and crowded commutes. While more residents will work from home and avoid the commute, traffic congestion will remain a growing problem. People will continue to travel from home to work, school, and other destinations. As a result, we can expect past trends to continue, roadway traffic to increase, and more hours spent on congested roadways. (See the chart on the lower right.) According to our forecasts, by 2040, traf- fic between East County and Central County will increase by 70 percent. Other corridors will experi- ence significant traffic growth as well. The good news is that we also expect more people to take transit such as BART or a bus, or switch to walking or bicycling. And there is more good news. California has always been a front-runner in low-emissions vehicle technology. As progress con- tinues, and more hybrid and electric cars join the fleet, harmful emissions from tomorrow’s vehicles will be reduced to a small fraction of what they are today. Average Daily Hours of Congestion, 1986-2012 Contra Costa County Data Sources: 1986-2008 Hi-Comp Report; 2009-2012 Mobility Performance Report Average Daily Hours of Congestion 10,000 5,000 0 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 198619881990199219941996199820002002200420062008201020124 What is the Countywide Transportation Plan? The Countywide Transportation Plan (CTP) is our 30-year blueprint for maintaining and improving the county’s roads, freeways, transit, and bicycle and pedestrian facilities. The CTP lays out a vision for the county’s transportation future, the goals and strategies for achieving that vision, and future trans- portation priorities for program and project fund- ing. Delivering a coordinated approach that creates a balanced, functional transportation system, while strengthening links between land use decisions and transportation, is no small feat. Especially since the CTP must also consider and reflect Contra Costa’s cultural, geographic, and economic diversity. The CTP is intended to carry out the Authority’s five major goals, while responding to changes in the area’s population and the ways in which resi- dents understand and use the transportation system. In many areas of Contra Costa, transportation de- mand will rise faster than increases in roadway ca- pacity, largely because we’re running out of room to expand roads. As the cost of expansion continues to rise, the Authority must identify realistic ways to keep both people and goods moving. 5 Electric vehicle charging stations support increased use of electric vehicles VISION Strive to preserve and enhance the quality of life of local communities by promoting a healthy environment and a strong economy to benefit all people and areas of Contra Costa, through 1) a balanced, safe, and efficient transportation network; 2) cooperative planning; and 3) growth management. The transportation network should integrate all modes of transportation to meet the diverse needs of Contra Costa. GOALS ƒSupport the efficient and reliable movement of people and goods using all available travel modes ƒManage growth to sustain Contra Costa’s economy, preserve its environment and support its communities ƒExpand safe, convenient and affordable alternatives to the single- occupant vehicle ƒMaintain the transportation system ƒContinue to invest wisely to maximize the benefits of available funding Map 6 Completed or Under Construction Additional Funding Needed MAJOR PROJECTS 0 2 4 6 MILES Major Projects Funded Through Measure C and Measure J Martinez Multi-modal Transit Center Capitol Corridor Train Station Hercules Richmond-San Rafael Bridge Seismic Retrofit Benicia-Martinez Bridge HOV & Class I Bike Path Caldecott Tunnel 4th Bore I-80/San Pablo Dam Rd Interchange: Reconstruct I-680: Auxiliary Lanes Sycamore Valley Road to Crow Canyon Road I-680/Alcosta Boulevard Modify Interchange Central County Crossover I-80 Integrated Corridor Mobility Project I-80: Eastbound HOV lanes Willow Road to Crockett Interchange State Route 4 Bypass: Westbound SR 4 Bypass to Northbound State Route 160 State Route 4 Bypass: Sand Creek Road Interchange State Route 4 Bypass: Balfour Road Interchange Vasco Road Safety Improvements State Route 4 Widening East County Rail Extension (eBART) CONTRA COSTA COUNTY SanRamon Danville Moraga Lafayette Orinda PleasantHill WalnutCreek Concord Clayton PittsburgMartinezHercules Pinole Richmond SanPablo ElCerrito Antioch Oakley Brentwood ALAMEDA COUNTY Richmond Transit Village BART Parking Structure Marina Bay Parkway Railroad Grade Separation I-80/Central Ave Interchange Modifications wBART extension to Hercules I-680/SR-4 Interchange Improvements Clayton Road On and Off Ramps Iron Horse Trail Overcrossing at Treat Blvd I-680 Direct Access Ramps eBART Extension to Brentwood eBART Railroad Ave Station I-680 Northbound HOV Extension I-680 Southbound HOV Extension Pacheco Transit Hub SOLANO COUNTY SACRAMENTO COUNTY SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY T r i -L i n k S t u d y Ar ea Map 7 Completed or Under Construction Additional Funding Needed MAJOR PROJECTS 0246 MILES Major Projects Funded Through Measure C and Measure J Martinez Multi-modal Transit Center Capitol Corridor Train Station Hercules Richmond-San Rafael Bridge Seismic Retrofit Benicia-Martinez Bridge HOV & Class I Bike Path Caldecott Tunnel 4th Bore I-80/San Pablo Dam Rd Interchange: Reconstruct I-680: Auxiliary Lanes Sycamore Valley Road to Crow Canyon Road I-680/Alcosta Boulevard Modify Interchange Central County Crossover I-80 Integrated Corridor Mobility Project I-80: Eastbound HOV lanes Willow Road to Crockett Interchange State Route 4 Bypass: Westbound SR 4 Bypass to Northbound State Route 160 State Route 4 Bypass: Sand Creek Road Interchange State Route 4 Bypass: Balfour Road Interchange Vasco Road Safety Improvements State Route 4 Widening East County Rail Extension (eBART) CONTRA COSTA COUNTY SanRamon Danville Moraga Lafayette Orinda PleasantHill WalnutCreek Concord Clayton PittsburgMartinezHercules Pinole Richmond SanPablo ElCerrito Antioch Oakley Brentwood ALAMEDA COUNTY Richmond Transit Village BART Parking Structure Marina Bay Parkway Railroad Grade Separation I-80/Central Ave Interchange Modifications wBART extension to Hercules I-680/SR-4 Interchange Improvements Clayton Road On and Off Ramps Iron Horse Trail Overcrossing at Treat Blvd I-680 Direct Access Ramps eBART Extension to Brentwood eBART Railroad Ave Station I-680 Northbound HOV Extension I-680 Southbound HOV Extension Pacheco Transit Hub SOLANO COUNTY SACRAMENTO COUNTY SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY T r i -L i n k S t u d y Ar ea Strategies for Achieving Our Goals 8 SUPPORT THE EFFICIENT AND RELIABLE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE AND GOODS MANAGE GROWTH TO SUSTAIN CONTRA COSTA’S ECONOMY AND PRESERVE ITS ENVIRONMENT Reduction in congestion can occur through a variety of strategies, including capital improvements to the roadway system itself, influencing the location and nature of new growth, increased traffic management, and expansion of multi-modal mobility, which has been a cornerstone of our planning. Examples of what’s been accomplished: ƒCaldecott Tunnel Fourth Bore: CCTA developed a new, two-lane tunnel that connects Orinda to Oakland, relieving congestion along this heavily-traveled segment of Highway 24. ƒHighway 4 Corridor Project: Considered one of the top ten worst commutes in America, CCTA is leading a $1.3 billion dollar transportation investment in East County to widen the highway, reduce congestion, and improve transit access for more than 250,000 residents. ƒI-80 Integrated Corridor Mobility Project: Optimizes the use of the existing infrastructure within the corridor to reduce congestion, reduce travel time, provide real time information to drivers and improve safety. New Caldecott Tunnel opened in 2013 Highway 4 Corridor project Achieving this goal involves: ƒStrengthening Partnerships ƒCooperative Planning ƒMore coordination of land use planning ƒSupporting the Urban Limit Line ƒPromoting infill development ƒRespect community character and the environment Examples of what’s been accomplished: ƒEstablishment of the Urban Limit Line: In local jurisdictions across the county, voters have approved Urban Limit Lines as part of the requirements of Measure J. ƒImplementation of the Growth Management Program: To meet the Measure J requirements, local jurisdictions throughout Contra Costa have updated the Growth Management Element of their General Plans to reflect the Authority’s model element. Downtown Pittsburg Richmond intermodal station 9 EXPAND SAFE, CONVENIENT AND AFFORDABLE ALTERNATIVES TO THE SINGLE-OCCUPANT VEHICLE MAINTAIN THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM WestCAT Bus Stop Pleasant Hill BART Station Ways of achieving this goal include expansion of BART and bus service, paratransit, pedestrian and bicycle routes, and carpools. Examples of what’s been accomplished: ƒ511 Contra Costa: CCTA provides funding that enables trip planning services for commuters and residents who need help planning bike routes, managing public transit options, or finding the best rideshare program. ƒBus Transit: CCTA provides funding for local bus services (5% of Measure J revenues), express bus services (4.3%), transportation service for seniors and the disabled (4%), and commute alternatives (1%), for a total expenditure of $10,725,000 annually. ƒReal-Time Ridesharing: CCTA is using new technology to enable local commuters to coordinate carpooling opportunities. Through the smart-phone app Car.ma, drivers and riders can find each other in advance or on the fly to plan a shared travel schedule or route. ƒPedestrian and Bicycle Improvements. Measure J funds have improved bicycle and pedestrian facilities across the county. This goal depends upon acquiring adequate, stable funding for transit operations and reducing the backlog of rehabilitation and maintenance needs. In the long term, the strategy is to increase preventative maintenance, which will promote the long-term health of the transportation system and help the economy. Examples of what’s been accomplished: ƒLocal Street Maintenance and Improvement Funds: Local street maintenance also is funded by the CCTA under Measure J. Each year, local jurisdictions receive 18% of gross sales tax proceeds (approximately $12.5 million) to use towards maintenance of local streets and roads. Receipt of funds is contingent upon compliance with the Measure J Growth Management Program. ƒMaintain and Improve East Bay Regional Park District Trails: Some of the funds available through Measure J go to maintain and improve paved regional trails in Contra Costa. These include the Contra Costa Canal Trail, the Delta-de Anza Trail, and the Bay Trail. Highway 4 widening Highway 4 construction Key Considerations for the 2014 CTP Update The goal of the 2014 CTP is to identify and imple- ment specific actions and strategies that support our shared goal of safe, strong, and efficient transporta- tion networks that improve the quality of life for Contra Costa residents. As we work together to de- velop solutions for our county, we also need to be mindful of new challenges and opportunities that may affect the CTP’s goals. Funding Funding is critical to meeting the stated goals of the CTP and helping Contra Costa remain one of the most desirable places to live and work in the Bay Area. In addition to examining how we can most responsibly and efficiently use existing funding sources such as traditional State and federal funds, Cap and Trade funds, OneBayArea Grants, and voter-approved Measure J funds, we also need to consider potential sources of new revenue like open road tolling and congestion pricing at gateways or in central business districts, as well as pricing based on parking demand. Improving Mobility for the Next Generation The Contra Costa Transportation Authority has long been concerned with how we can continue to maintain and improve our roads, freeways, transit, bicycle, and pedestrian facilities in ways that sustain our economy, our environment and our quality of life. Making new improvements, while maintaining what we have, will be a prominent issue for the 2014 CTP as CCTA addresses new State legislation such as SB 375. This legislation, and the Sustainable Communities Strategies required by it, supports the development of job centers and neighborhoods that are easier to access by transit and safe and conve- nient to walk or bicycle in, changes that will reduce the need for long commutes to work, shopping and other destinations. We also need to ensure that our roads and transit systems are resilient: can we continue to get around following an earthquake? Will increased frequency of storm surges harm our rail lines and roadways? $11 billion $4.8 billion Needed: $11 Billion Source: Plan Bay Area. Available Funding Under Measure J And Regional Transportation Plan (Including State And Federal Funds): $4.8 Billion 10 Contra Costa’s Funding Shortfall Using Transportation Technology Technology has radically changed the pace of inno- vation and the world of transportation. Throughout our history, people have used technology to address problems. Over the last two centuries, technology has revolutionized how we move people and goods. Instead of horse-drawn carriages and wind-driven ships, we now rely on trains, planes, buses and cars. These new technologies haven’t been without their downsides. For example, the engines propelling our ships, trains, planes and vehicles are a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. And the increased speeds these technologies allow have con- tributed to the sprawling character of many of our communities. Technology, however, can also help address the negative effects of our modern transportation net- work. The increased use of electric (or partially electric) vehicles will reduce greenhouse gas emis- sions in our urban areas (though this may be offset by the need to increase electricity generation), and the increased use of electric vehicles will increase the need for charging infrastructure. While auton- omous vehicles may make more efficient use of our roadways and may reduce the number of collisions, they could also require dramatic changes in how we design our roadways. Other technologies focus on the roadway itself. In- telligent transportation systems, or ITS, can benefit our transportation network by improving safety and efficiency. This benefits the environment by limiting the waste of fuel and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. ITS encompasses many techniques including electronic toll collection (such as FasTrak in the Bay Area), ramp metering, traffic signal co- ordination, and traveler information systems for freeways, arterials and transit systems. Our new plan needs to consider how this evolving transportation technology should be incorporated into our transportation system. Managing the Effects of Greenhouse Gases and Carbon Emissions on Our Climate Climate change will have to be considered in the CTP due to the California Governor’s Execu- tive Order mandating an 80 percent reduction of greenhouse gases below 1990 levels by 2050. Any efforts to increase the resiliency of the our trans- portation system will also need to take into account future vulnerabilities such as baylands and access points, near San Francisco Bay. Creating a resilient transportation system contributes to the long-term health and economy of Contra Costa. The CTP guides investments in Complete Streets, with multi-modal facilities and transit service Bus CarpoolClass II Bike Lane 11 Implementing Plan Bay Area Constrained Core Concentration Initial Vision/Core Concentration Focused Growth Outward Growth Current Regional Plans 9.4% 9.1% 8.2% 7.9% 7.0% SCS Regional Contribution*** Scenarios IMPROVED FUEL EFFICIENCY (PAVLEY I & II) LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS REGIONAL LAND USE & TRANSPORTATION (SCS)Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent15% 0% 50 1990 2000 2010 100 250 300 350 150 200 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 2020 2030 2040 2050 Projected Land Use & Transportation Emissions Reductions 80% 427 4 3 2 1 610 1 2 3 4 5 Science and Technology Report, 2011 NON-TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS REDUCTION ACTUAL/PROJECTED EMISSIONS ***MTC’s regional contribution amplied to reect the contributions of all California MPOs FIGURE 3: Regional Land Use and Transportation SCS ACHIEVING ST ATEWIDE AB 32 GHG REDUCTION TAR GET S Source: Plan Bay Area ACHIEVING THE GOVERNOR’S DIRECTIVE: REACHING STATEWIDE AB 32 GHG REDUCTION TARGETS 800 *Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent **Estimate based on California Council on Science and Technology Report, 2011 427427 85 Target 2050 Emissions (20% of 1990 Emissions): 85 Tons* Required to meet Governor’s Executive Order S-3-05 Forecast 2050 Emissions** 507 Achieving the Govenor’s Directive: Reaching Statewide AB 32 GHG Reduction Targets 12 The recently adopted Plan Bay Area, created by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), envisioned that implementation details would be taken up in partnership with transporta- tion planning agencies and local jurisdictions. As such, the CTP Update will need to address how elements included in Plan Bay Area fit into our vi- sion for Contra Costa. Elements of Plan Bay Area that will need to be con- sidered include: ƒPriority development areas (PDAs); ƒUse of Cap and Trade funds; ƒOther initiatives, including those for freeway performance, carpooling and vanpooling, smart driving strategies, streamlining the environ- mental review process, goods movement, and industrial lands inventories; ƒMTC’s Regional Prosperity Plan that removes barriers for the disadvantaged and discusses the unresolved regional issues of mobility and equity; ƒComplete Streets, which serve all modes, and reasonable accommodations for all modes; and ƒHow and when to incorporate Plan Bay Area’s land use forecasts for transportation into model updates. Be a Part of the Countywide Transportation Plan Process! What do you think is missing? What projects are important to you? How do you think we should spend any future revenue? Your input is critical to the 2014 Countywide Transportation Plan update. You can contribute your ideas and share your thoughts on the goals and priorities that will shape our shared transportation future through the various public engagement oppor- tunities detailed below. CTP Schedule for Completion Follow updates on our website! Visit our website to stay current on the 2014 CTP Update and discover additional opportunities to be part of the discussion at: www.ccta.net/funding/our_future Email Us Your Comments Email your comments directly to our staff at: 2014CTP@ccta.net Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Complete Action Plans  Complete Draft 2014 CTP and EIR  Public Outreach Adoption of 2014 CTP  13 2999 Oak Road, Suite 100 Walnut Creek, CA 94597 925-256-4700 www.ccta.net Revision 1, April 28, 2014 Countywide Transportation Plan –2014 UpdateJuly 16, 2014Page 1 HistoryƒVoters approved Measure C in 1988ƒEstablished half-percent sales tax to fund a variety of projects and programsƒIncluded a Growth Management ProgramƒVoters approved Measure J in 2004ƒSales tax generates $3 billionPage 2 Accomplishments Since 2009 (Projects)• Caldecott Tunnel Fourth Bore• Widening of State Route 4• New HOV and Auxiliary lanes on I-680• New BART parking in West County• New High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes• Intermodal transit centers• New pedestrian overcrossingsPage 3 Caldecott Tunnel Fourth BorePage 4 Widening of State Route 4Page 5 New HOV Lanes & Aux LanesPage 6 New BART Parking in West CountyPage 7 Intermodal Transit CentersPage 8 New Pedestrian OvercrossingsPage 9 Accomplishments Since 2009 (Programs)• Local Streets and Roads• Bus Service/Express• Transportation for Livable Communities• Safe Routes for Children• Pedestrian, Bicycle, and Trail Facilities• Transportation for People with Disabilities• Growth Management ProgramPage 10 Growth Management Program1. Assures that new growth paid its way 2. Creates a process for cooperatively managing growth in Contra Costa3. Establishes a Countywide ULL/support efficient infill4. Requires development and update of a CTP (1995, 2000, 2004, 2009) Page 11 CTP Building Blocks: Action Plans• Identify Regional Routes• Set performance measures: Multimodal Transportation Service Objectives (MTSO)• Adopt actions for achieving them• Establish procedures for review of GPAsPage 12 The ChallengesPage 13 We’re Still GrowingPage 14 Contra Costa Jobs: Projected Growth by 2040Page 15 Contra Costa County Traffic: Projected Increase by 2040Page 16 Where will traffic increase?Page 17 Must Reduce GHG Emissions to Comply with SB 375Page 18 Reaching GHG Emissions TargetsPage 19 We’re Taking ActionPage 20 Implementing the Growth Management ProgramPage 21 Growing Priority Development AreasPage 22 Supporting Clean Technology and Alternative Modes of TravelPage 23 Constructing ProjectsPage 24 eBART ExtensionPage 25 Funding ProgramsPage 26 Innovation is the KeyPage 27 What’s inside the CTP?Page 28 The CTP VisionStrive to preserve and enhance the quality of life of local communities by promoting a healthy environment and strong economy to benefit all people and areas of Contra Costa, through (1) a balanced, safe, and efficient transportation network, (2) cooperative planning, and (3) growth management. The transportation network should integrate all modes of transportation to meet the diverse needs of Contra Costa.Page 29 Goals and Strategies• Efficient, safe, and reliable movement of people and goods• Manage growth• Expand safe, convenient and affordable alternatives to the single-occupant vehicle • Maintain the transportation system• Invest wiselyPage 30 How We Build a CTPPage 31 Inside the CTPVolume I: CTP• Introduction• Visions, Goals, Strategies• The Transportation System• Cooperative Planning• ImplementationVolume 2: Action Plans• West County• Central County• East County• Lamorinda• Tri-ValleyVolume 3: CTPL•Projects• ProgramsPage 32 What We’ve Learned So FarPage 33 Projects Funded and UnfundedPage 34 Unfunded Projects• I-80 San Pablo Dam Road Interchange (Costs: $114 million, need $60 million)• I-680/Highway 4 Interchange (Costs: $226 million, no funding available for phases 1, 2, 4 & 5)• Highway 4 Operational Improvements (east of I-680/SR4) (Costs: $259 million, only $4.6 million available)Page 35 Unfunded Projectse-BART Phase 2 ($608 m)Page 36 Unfunded ProjectsTriLink SR-239 ($750 m)Page 37 $11.6 Billion in Proposed ProjectsTABLE E-2: TOTAL COSTS OF PROPOSED FUTURE PROJECTS PROJECT TYPE TOTAL COST ($1,000) SHARE OF TOTAL Arterial/Roadway $1,954,075 16.8% Bicycle/Pedestrian/SR2S/TLC $579,159 5.0% Transit $5,072,089 43.5% Freeway/Expressway/Interchanges $3,875,997 33.3% Intermodal/Park-and-Ride $131,854 1.1% Studies $38,035 1.3% TOTAL COST $11,651,209 100.0%  Page 38 Projects Funding Shortfall$4.7 billionidentified$6.8 billionstill neededTotal Funding Required = $11.6 billionPage 39 Did We Miss Anything?Page 40 Schedule12.17.14CCTA Board Adopts CTPAUG9.30.14Comment Period Ends8.01.14DRAFT CTPSEPOCTNOVDECPublic Review Workshops, On-line Engagement ToolCompile Public Comments, Finalize CTP DocumentJAN 2015Develop TEPPage 41 How Can You Participate?• Upcoming Community Meetings• Online tool• Other public forumsPage 42 Thank Youhttp://www.ccta.net/sources/detail/11/1 Page 43