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HomeMy WebLinkAboutMINUTES - 01302018 -CALENDAR FOR THE BOARD OF SUPERVISORS CONTRA COSTA COUNTY AND FOR SPECIAL DISTRICTS, AGENCIES, AND AUTHORITIES GOVERNED BY THE BOARD BOARD CHAMBERS ROOM 107, ADMINISTRATION BUILDING, 651 PINE STREET MARTINEZ, CALIFORNIA 94553-1229 FEDERAL D. GLOVER, CHAIR, 5TH DISTRICT KAREN MITCHOFF, VICE CHAIR, 4TH DISTRICT JOHN GIOIA, 1ST DISTRICT CANDACE ANDERSEN, 2ND DISTRICT DIANE BURGIS, 3RD DISTRICT DAVID J. TWA, CLERK OF THE BOARD AND COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR, (925) 335-1900 PERSONS WHO WISH TO ADDRESS THE BOARD DURING PUBLIC COMMENT OR WITH RESPECT TO AN ITEM THAT IS ON THE AGENDA, MAY BE LIMITED TO TWO (2) MINUTES. A LUNCH BREAK MAY BE CALLED AT THE DISCRETION OF THE BOARD CHAIR. The Board of Supervisors respects your time, and every attempt is made to accurately estimate when an item may be heard by the Board. All times specified for items on the Board of Supervisors agenda are approximate. Items may be heard later than indicated depending on the business of the day. Your patience is appreciated. ANNOTATED AGENDA & MINUTES January 30, 2018                 9:00 A.M. Convene and Call to Order (Chair, Karen Mitchoff) Present: District I Supervisor John Gioia; District II Supervisor Candace Andersen; District III Supervisor Diane Burgis; District IV Supervisor Karen Mitchoff; District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover Staff Present:David Twa, County Administrator Public Comment (2 minutes each)    Public speaker: Jerome Knott from Love a Child Missions; Sukhdev Singh, did not wish to speak, but left written commentary for the Board's consideration (attached).   Board Operating Procedures and Communications (Chair, Karen Mitchoff)    No commentary or changes at this time. January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 1   D.3 CONSIDER accepting report “The Economic Outlook: Focus on the Contra Costa Economy” prepared by Beacon Economics. (Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Beacon Economics)        AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor Diane Burgis, District IV Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover ---BREAK---   D.4 CONSIDER accepting report on budget and key issues for FY 2017/18 and beyond. (David Twa, County Administrator and Lisa Driscoll, County Finance Director)       Public Speakers: Mariana Moore and Cheryl Sudduth from the Budget Justice Coalition. DIRECTED staff to provide an update on the status of establishing the Countywide Redevelopment Oversight Board and process for selecting the two appointees, to leave a slot open for the Public Defender if she chooses to make a presentation at the budget hearing; and REQUESTED the Public Works Director to make a presentation at the budget hearing.     AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor Diane Burgis, District IV Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover D.5 CONSIDER accepting report on Capital Projects. (Eric Angstadt, Chief Assistant County Administrator)        AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor Diane Burgis, District IV Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover --- BREAK FOR LUNCH AND CLOSED SESSION---   January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 2 Closed Session Agenda A. CONFERENCE WITH LABOR NEGOTIATORS 1. Agency Negotiators: David Twa and Richard Bolanos. Employee Organizations : Contra Costa County Employees’ Assn., Local No. 1; Am. Fed., State, County, & Mun. Empl., Locals 512 and 2700; Calif. Nurses Assn.; Service Empl. Int’l Union, Local 1021; District Attorney’s Investigators Assn.; Deputy Sheriffs Assn.; United Prof. Firefighters, Local 1230; Physicians’ & Dentists’ Org. of Contra Costa; Western Council of Engineers; United Chief Officers Assn.; Service Employees International Union Local 2015; Contra Costa County Defenders Assn.; Probation Peace Officers Assn. of Contra Costa County; Contra Costa County Deputy District Attorneys’ Assn.; and Prof. & Tech. Engineers, Local 21, AFL-CIO; Teamsters Local 856. 2. Agency Negotiators: David Twa. Unrepresented Employees: All unrepresented employees. B. PUBLIC EMPLOYEE APPOINTMENT Title: Director of Health Services C. PUBLIC EMPLOYEE PERFORMANCE EVALUATION Title: County Administrator    Announcement from closed session that Anna Roth has been selected as the new Contra Costa County Health Services Director.   ---RESUME OPEN SESSION----   D.6 CONSIDER accepting report from the Office of Reentry & Justice on the County’s reentry and justice related programs, including the Government Alliance on Race and Equity (GARE). (Lara DeLaney, Acting Director of the Office of Reentry & Justice and Donte' Blue, Deputy Director of the Office of Reentry & Justice)       Dwayne March presentation attached. January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 3  Dwayne March presentation attached. Public Speaker: Debbie Toth from Choice in Aging.     AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor Diane Burgis, District IV Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover D.7 CONSIDER accepting report on Contra Costa's Homelessness Continuum of Care. (Lavonna Martin, Director - Health, Housing and Homeless Services)       Public Speaker: Jerome Knott from Love a Child Missions     AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor Diane Burgis, District IV Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover Wrap-up and Closing Comments (Chair, Karen Mitchoff)   ADJOURN   GENERAL INFORMATION The Board meets in all its capacities pursuant to Ordinance Code Section 24-2.402, including as the Housing Authority and the Successor Agency to the Redevelopment Agency. Persons who wish to address the Board should complete the form provided for that purpose and furnish a copy of any written statement to the Clerk. Any disclosable public records related to an open session item on a regular meeting agenda and distributed by the Clerk of the Board to a majority of the members of the Board of Supervisors less than 72 hours prior to that meeting are available for public inspection at 651 Pine Street, First Floor, Room 106, Martinez, CA 94553, during normal business hours. All matters listed under CONSENT ITEMS are considered by the Board to be January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 4 All matters listed under CONSENT ITEMS are considered by the Board to be routine and will be enacted by one motion. There will be no separate discussion of these items unless requested by a member of the Board or a member of the public prior to the time the Board votes on the motion to adopt. Persons who wish to speak on matters set for PUBLIC HEARINGS will be heard when the Chair calls for comments from those persons who are in support thereof or in opposition thereto. After persons have spoken, the hearing is closed and the matter is subject to discussion and action by the Board. Comments on matters listed on the agenda or otherwise within the purview of the Board of Supervisors can be submitted to the office of the Clerk of the Board via mail: Board of Supervisors, 651 Pine Street Room 106, Martinez, CA 94553; by fax: 925-335-1913. The County will provide reasonable accommodations for persons with disabilities planning to attend Board meetings who contact the Clerk of the Board at least 24 hours before the meeting, at (925) 335-1900; TDD (925) 335-1915. An assistive listening device is available from the Clerk, Room 106. Copies of recordings of all or portions of a Board meeting may be purchased from the Clerk of the Board. Please telephone the Office of the Clerk of the Board, (925) 335-1900, to make the necessary arrangements. Forms are available to anyone desiring to submit an inspirational thought nomination for inclusion on the Board Agenda. Forms may be obtained at the Office of the County Administrator or Office of the Clerk of the Board, 651 Pine Street, Martinez, California. Applications for personal subscriptions to the weekly Board Agenda may be obtained by calling the Office of the Clerk of the Board, (925) 335-1900. The weekly agenda may also be viewed on the County’s Internet Web Page: www.co.contra-costa.ca.us Glossary of Acronyms, Abbreviations, and other Terms (in alphabetical order): Contra Costa County has a policy of making limited use of acronyms,January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 5 Contra Costa County has a policy of making limited use of acronyms, abbreviations, and industry-specific language in its Board of Supervisors meetings and written materials. Following is a list of commonly used language that may appear in oral presentations and written materials associated with Board meetings: AB Assembly Bill ABAG Association of Bay Area Governments ACA Assembly Constitutional Amendment ADA Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 AFSCME American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees AICP American Institute of Certified Planners AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ALUC Airport Land Use Commission AOD Alcohol and Other Drugs ARRA American Recovery & Reinvestment Act of 2009 BAAQMD Bay Area Air Quality Management District BART Bay Area Rapid Transit District BayRICS Bay Area Regional Interoperable Communications System BCDC Bay Conservation & Development Commission BGO Better Government Ordinance BOS Board of Supervisors CALTRANS California Department of Transportation CalWIN California Works Information Network CalWORKS California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids CAER Community Awareness Emergency Response CAO County Administrative Officer or Office CCCPFD (ConFire) Contra Costa County Fire Protection District CCHP Contra Costa Health Plan CCTA Contra Costa Transportation Authority CCRMC Contra Costa Regional Medical Center CCWD Contra Costa Water District CDBG Community Development Block Grant CFDA Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance CEQA California Environmental Quality Act CIO Chief Information Officer COLA Cost of living adjustment ConFire (CCCFPD) Contra Costa County Fire Protection District January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 6 ConFire (CCCFPD) Contra Costa County Fire Protection District CPA Certified Public Accountant CPI Consumer Price Index CSA County Service Area CSAC California State Association of Counties CTC California Transportation Commission dba doing business as DSRIP Delivery System Reform Incentive Program EBMUD East Bay Municipal Utility District ECCFPD East Contra Costa Fire Protection District EIR Environmental Impact Report EIS Environmental Impact Statement EMCC Emergency Medical Care Committee EMS Emergency Medical Services EPSDT Early State Periodic Screening, Diagnosis and Treatment Program (Mental Health) et al. et alii (and others) FAA Federal Aviation Administration FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency F&HS Family and Human Services Committee First 5 First Five Children and Families Commission (Proposition 10) FTE Full Time Equivalent FY Fiscal Year GHAD Geologic Hazard Abatement District GIS Geographic Information System HCD (State Dept of) Housing & Community Development HHS (State Dept of ) Health and Human Services HIPAA Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act HIV Human Immunodeficiency Syndrome HOV High Occupancy Vehicle HR Human Resources HUD United States Department of Housing and Urban Development IHSS In-Home Supportive Services Inc. Incorporated IOC Internal Operations Committee ISO Industrial Safety Ordinance JPA Joint (exercise of) Powers Authority or Agreement Lamorinda Lafayette-Moraga-Orinda Area January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 7 Lamorinda Lafayette-Moraga-Orinda Area LAFCo Local Agency Formation Commission LLC Limited Liability Company LLP Limited Liability Partnership Local 1 Public Employees Union Local 1 LVN Licensed Vocational Nurse MAC Municipal Advisory Council MBE Minority Business Enterprise M.D. Medical Doctor M.F.T. Marriage and Family Therapist MIS Management Information System MOE Maintenance of Effort MOU Memorandum of Understanding MTC Metropolitan Transportation Commission NACo National Association of Counties NEPA National Environmental Policy Act OB-GYN Obstetrics and Gynecology O.D. Doctor of Optometry OES-EOC Office of Emergency Services-Emergency Operations Center OPEB Other Post Employment Benefits OSHA Occupational Safety and Health Administration PARS Public Agencies Retirement Services PEPRA Public Employees Pension Reform Act Psy.D. Doctor of Psychology RDA Redevelopment Agency RFI Request For Information RFP Request For Proposal RFQ Request For Qualifications RN Registered Nurse SB Senate Bill SBE Small Business Enterprise SEIU Service Employees International Union SUASI Super Urban Area Security Initiative SWAT Southwest Area Transportation Committee TRANSPAC Transportation Partnership & Cooperation (Central) TRANSPLAN Transportation Planning Committee (East County) TRE or TTE Trustee TWIC Transportation, Water and Infrastructure Committee January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 8 TWIC Transportation, Water and Infrastructure Committee UASI Urban Area Security Initiative VA Department of Veterans Affairs vs. versus (against) WAN Wide Area Network WBE Women Business Enterprise WCCTAC West Contra Costa Transportation Advisory Committee January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 9 RECOMMENDATION(S): ACCEPT report ‘The Economic Outlook: Focus on the Contra Costa Economy". FISCAL IMPACT: This report is for informational purposes and has no specific fiscal impact. BACKGROUND: Attached is Beacon Economics report entitled "The Economic Outlook: Focus on the Contra Costa Economy". APPROVE OTHER RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD COMMITTEE Action of Board On: 01/30/2018 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER Clerks Notes: VOTE OF SUPERVISORS AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor Diane Burgis, District III Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District IV Supervisor Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor Contact: Lisa Driscoll, County Finance Director (925) 335-1023 I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown. ATTESTED: January 30, 2018 David J. Twa, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors By: Jami Napier, Deputy cc: D.3 To:Board of Supervisors From:David Twa, County Administrator Date:January 30, 2018 Contra Costa County Subject:Annual Update on Economic Conditions in Contra Costa County January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 10 ATTACHMENTS The Economic Outlook (Beacon Economics) Dr. Christopher Thornberg Bio January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 11 Analysis. Answers. Analysis. Answers Beacon Economics, LLC The Economic Outlook Focus on the Contra Costa Economy January 2018 Christopher Thornberg Founding Partner, Beacon Economics Director, UC Riverside Center for Forecasting and Development January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 12 Analysis. Answers. It was an interesting year… 2 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 13 Analysis. Answers. The Victory of Miserabilism •The Good: Meet the new economy, same as the old economy –For all the sound and fury, very little actually happened (x taxes) –2017 solid year for growth: looked a lot like 2013-2016 –2018 likely to be better: the tax cut stimulus will boost the economy –Still a low chance of recession in next 24 months •The Bad: Economic Brakes and Growing Imbalances –Labor shortage Issues (particularly in California) –Consumer savings declines, another bubble forming –Aggressive Fed: rising rates, flattening yield curves •The Ugly: 2018 will be seen as a historic turning point –Little effort to deal with underinvestment in infrastructure, rising wealth and income inequality, healthcare cost inflation, housing –Sharp growth in entitlement spending and government deficits –Breakdown in basic norms of political leadership 3 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 14 Analysis. Answers. Optimism Abounds 4 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 100.0 Oct-01Apr-04Oct-06Apr-09Oct-11Apr-14Oct-16UM Consumer Sentiment 3 Month MA 40 45 50 55 60 65 Oct-01Aug-03Jun-05Apr-07Feb-09Dec-10Oct-12Aug-14Jun-16ISM Diffusion Indexes 3 Month MA Manufacturing Non-Manufacturing 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Jan-07Aug-08Mar-10Oct-11May-13Dec-14Jul-16S&P 500 Index January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 15 Analysis. Answers. GDP Growth: 2017 back to 3% 5 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%2011Q1Q32012Q1Q32013Q1Q32014Q1Q32015Q1Q32016Q1Q32017Q1Q3Y-o-Y Growth 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2017 Q3 Q4 GDP 2.68 2.73 2.00 1.85 2.73 3.20 2.60 FD 1.68 3.45 2.70 2.19 2.79 2.05 3.88 PCE 1.37 2.40 2.04 1.93 1.95 1.49 2.58 Fixed Inv 0.83 0.95 0.40 0.18 0.86 0.40 1.27 Struct 0.16 0.26 -0.28 0.10 0.07 -0.21 0.04 Equip 0.39 0.24 0.21 -0.22 0.52 0.58 0.62 IPP 0.09 0.26 0.13 0.21 0.20 0.21 0.18 Res 0.20 0.20 0.35 0.09 0.08 -0.18 0.42 Invent 0.62 -0.15 -0.02 -0.02 -0.11 0.79 -0.67 Net exports 0.38 -0.57 -0.68 -0.31 0.05 0.36 -1.13 Government -0.53 0.09 0.28 0.07 0.12 0.12 0.50 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 16 Analysis. Answers. Oil and Exports 6 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 US Exports (Real) 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Jan 12, 1996Jan 12, 1998Jan 12, 2000Jan 12, 2002Jan 12, 2004Jan 12, 2006Jan 12, 2008Jan 12, 2010Jan 12, 2012Jan 12, 2014Jan 12, 2016Weekly US Oil Production to December January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 17 Analysis. Answers. Industrial Stats: Meh. 7 -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%Oct-11Jun-12Feb-13Oct-13Jun-14Feb-15Oct-15Jun-16Feb-17Oct-17Industrial Production (Y-o-Y Growth) to Oct 65% 67% 69% 71% 73% 75% 77% 79% 81% 83% 85%Oct-05Feb-07Jun-08Oct-09Feb-11Jun-12Oct-13Feb-15Jun-16Oct-17Capacity Utilization January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 18 Analysis. Answers. Housing 8 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 4700 4900 5100 5300 Jan-14Jun-14Nov-14Apr-15Sep-15Feb-16Jul-16Dec-16May-17Oct-17Existing SF Homes Sales 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Oct-02Apr-04Oct-05Apr-07Oct-08Apr-10Oct-11Apr-13Oct-14Apr-16Oct-17Housing Starts SAAR January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 19 Analysis. Answers. Home Prices 9 2016 2017 2016 2017 WA -Seattle 10.6%12.7%NC-Charlotte 5.9%6.4% NV-Las Vegas 5.6%10.2%Composite-20 5.0%6.4% CA-San Diego 5.8%8.1%National-US 5.2%6.2% CA-San Francisco 5.6%7.7%AZ-Phoenix 5.1%6.0% CO-Denver 8.3%7.2%NY-New York 2.1%5.9% MI-Detroit 6.6%7.1%MN-Minneapolis 5.4%5.4% TX-Dallas 8.1%7.1%GA-Atlanta 5.8%5.0% OR-Portland 10.2%7.1%OH-Cleveland 4.0%4.7% MA-Boston 4.4%6.9%FL-Miami 6.4%4.4% FL-Tampa 7.8%6.9%IL-Chicago 2.9%4.1% CA-Los Angeles 5.5%6.5%DC-Washington 2.1%3.1% January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 20 Analysis. Answers. Ownership-Slight Up 10 59.0% 60.0% 61.0% 62.0% 63.0% 64.0% 65.0% 66.0% 67.0% 68.0% 69.0% 70.0%Q3-87Q3-89Q3-91Q3-93Q3-95Q3-97Q3-99Q3-01Q3-03Q3-05Q3-07Q3-09Q3-11Q3-13Q3-15Q3-17Home Ownership -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%04:Q105:Q206:Q307:Q409:Q110:Q211:Q312:Q414:Q115:Q216:Q3Growth Outstanding Mortgage Debt January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 21 Analysis. Answers. Retail Sales 11 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000 15000 16000 17000 18000 19000 Jan-11Aug-11Mar-12Oct-12May-13Dec-13Jul-14Feb-15Sep-15Apr-16Nov-16Jun-17Auto Sales SAAR 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%Dec-12May-13Oct-13Mar-14Aug-14Jan-15Jun-15Nov-15Apr-16Sep-16Feb-17Jul-17Dec-17Retail Sales (Y-o-Y to Dec) Online Brick & Mortor January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 22 Analysis. Answers. Consumer Spending 12 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%Sep-12Jan-13May-13Sep-13Jan-14May-14Sep-14Jan-15May-15Sep-15Jan-16May-16Sep-16Jan-17May-17Sep-17Real Consumer Spending (3 Month MA Growth) to September 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%2004Q12005Q12006Q12007Q12008Q12009Q12010Q12011Q12012Q12013Q12014Q12015Q12016Q12017Q1Consumer Savings Rate January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 23 Analysis. Answers. Wealth and Debt 13 14.0% 14.5% 15.0% 15.5% 16.0% 16.5% 17.0% 17.5% 18.0% 18.5%1980Q11982Q31985Q11987Q31990Q11992Q31995Q11997Q32000Q12002Q32005Q12007Q32010Q12012Q32015Q1Household Financial Obligation Ratio 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1990Q11992Q11994Q11996Q11998Q12000Q12002Q12004Q12006Q12008Q12010Q12012Q12014Q12016Q1Real Average Wealth per Household (FOF, Thous.) Home Equity Other Net Wealth January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 24 Analysis. Answers. California Debt 14 $20.0 $30.0 $40.0 $50.0 $60.0 $70.0 $80.0 $90.0 $100.0 03:Q104:Q105:Q106:Q107:Q108:Q109:Q110:Q111:Q112:Q113:Q114:Q115:Q116:Q117:Q1California Debt Per Capita (Thous) 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 03:Q104:Q105:Q106:Q107:Q108:Q109:Q110:Q111:Q112:Q113:Q114:Q115:Q116:Q117:Q1Share of Debt 90 days plus delinquent CA ALL January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 25 Analysis. Answers. Labor Markets 15 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%Jan-11Aug-11Mar-12Oct-12May-13Dec-13Jul-14Feb-15Sep-15Apr-16Nov-16Jun-17Growth Payroll Employment (Y-o-Y) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Net Change Payroll Jobs January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 26 Analysis. Answers. Why Slowing Job Growth? 16 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Oct-98Apr-00Oct-01Apr-03Oct-04Apr-06Oct-07Apr-09Oct-10Apr-12Oct-13Apr-15Oct-16Unemployment U6 U3 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 Dec-00Mar-02Jun-03Sep-04Dec-05Mar-07Jun-08Sep-09Dec-10Mar-12Jun-13Sep-14Dec-15Mar-17JOLT Job Openings Rate (% of Jobs) January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 27 Analysis. Answers. Consequences 17 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Jan-98Jun-99Nov-00Apr-02Sep-03Feb-05Jul-06Dec-07May-09Oct-10Mar-12Aug-13Jan-15Jun-16Real Wage Gains Median Real -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%Jan-80Jan-83Jan-86Jan-89Jan-92Jan-95Jan-98Jan-01Jan-04Jan-07Jan-10Jan-13Jan-16Labor Force Growth January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 28 Analysis. Answers. Demographic Limits 18 - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Under 5 years5 to 9 years10 to 14 years15 to 19 years20 to 24 years25 to 29 years30 to 34 years35 to 39 years40 to 44 years45 to 49 years50 to 54 years55 to 59 years60 to 64 years65 to 69 years70 to 74 years75 to 79 years80 to 84 years85 years and over2016 Population by Age by Nativity (Millions) Native Foreign 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%19751979198319871991199519992003200720112015US Population of 25-64 Year Olds Growth Share 50+ January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 29 Analysis. Answers. The Cure for Secular Stagnation 19 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 30 Analysis. Answers. Tax Reform vs Tax Cuts 20 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%1980IIII1985IIII1990IIII1995IIII2000IIII2005IIII2010IIII2015IUS Corporate Taxes as % Profit Federal State & Local A.Most corporations and households will pay less in taxes B.The plan will give a small short term boost to the economy C.The plan is regressive D.Will add $1.5 trillion to $3.5 trillion to the debt over 10 Years January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 31 Analysis. Answers. Implications 21 Real Average Net Worth by Bracket 1989 2001 2016 < 25 $(1)$0 $(12) 0%0%0% 25–49.9 $43 $60 $45 3%3%2% 50–74.9 $166 $227 $204 12%11%7% 75–89.9 $422 $612 $659 18%17%14% 90–100 $2,317 $3,748 $5,336 67%70%77% Top 1%$10,407 $17,772 $26,645 30%33%39% -1,600.0 -1,400.0 -1,200.0 -1,000.0 -800.0 -600.0 -400.0 -200.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 20002002200420062008201020122014201620182020202220242026CBO: Past and Projected Federal Budget Gap January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 32 Analysis. Answers. Fed Tightening 22 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2003-01-012003-10-082004-07-142005-04-202006-01-252006-11-012007-08-082008-05-142009-02-182009-11-252010-09-012011-06-082012-03-142012-12-192013-09-252014-07-022015-04-082016-01-132016-10-192017-07-26Interest Rates FFR 1 Yr Tr 10 Yr Tr -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 2003-01-012003-12-172004-12-012005-11-162006-11-012007-10-172008-10-012009-09-162010-09-012011-08-172012-08-012013-07-172014-07-022015-06-172016-06-012017-05-1710-1 Year Rate Spread January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 33 Analysis. Answers. Inflation: Slowing 23 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%Jan-98Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12Jan-14Jan-16CPI Core Inflation Rate 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%Sep-97Sep-99Sep-01Sep-03Sep-05Sep-07Sep-09Sep-11Sep-13Sep-15Sep-17M2 Growth Y-o-Y January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 34 Analysis. Answers. Frothy Equities 24 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Corporate Profits and Growth 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 Jan-86Jul-88Jan-91Jul-93Jan-96Jul-98Jan-01Jul-03Jan-06Jul-08Jan-11Jul-13Jan-16Shiller P/E Ratio January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 35 Analysis. Answers. Frothy? Crisis. Crisis? No. 25 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%Jan-80Aug-82Mar-85Oct-87May-90Dec-92Jul-95Feb-98Sep-00Apr-03Nov-05Jun-08Jan-11Aug-13Mar-16Nominal Stock Market Growth (S&P 500) Smoothed Annual % 10 Year Returns %0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 140.0%1988Q11990Q11992Q11994Q11996Q11998Q12000Q12002Q12004Q12006Q12008Q12010Q12012Q12014Q12016Q1Debt to GDP Ratios Financial Business January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 36 Analysis. Answers. Slowing Lending 26 -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%1/1/031/1/051/1/071/1/091/1/111/1/131/1/151/1/17Growth in Direct Bank Loans Net % Banks Responding Yes Demand Standards 2016Q4 2017Q4 2016Q4 2017Q4 auto loans 16.7 5.0 3.3 9.8 credit card loans 14.9 0.0 0.0 9.1 construction & land development 10.1 -10.0 27.5 2.9 commercial real estate 4.3 -5.6 18.8 4.2 multifamily residential structures 2.9 -18.1 42.0 22.2 C&I loans from large Firms -5.9 -11.3 1.5 -8.5 C&I loans from small firms -1.5 -2.9 -1.5 -8.8 QM jumbo mortgage loans 19.0 -10.9 -6.3 -6.2January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 37 Analysis. Answers. State Economic Performance 27 5 Year Change in Payroll Jobs by State New Jobs Ann Gr US Share Utah 226 3.5%1.8% Nevada 188 3.1%1.5% Florida 1,207 3.1%9.5% Idaho 96 3.0%0.8% Colorado 344 2.9%2.7% Oregon 228 2.7%1.8% Washington 401 2.7%3.2% California 2,038 2.7%16.1% Georgia 521 2.5%4.1% Texas 1,425 2.5%11.2% Arizona 298 2.3%2.3% South Carolina 220 2.3%1.7% Tennessee 314 2.3%2.5% North Carolina 421 2.1%3.3% Montana 40 1.8%0.3% - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 <35K 35-65K 65-100k 100K+ California: Change in Employment by Income (F.T.) 2012-2016 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 38 Analysis. Answers. Still Strong Indicators 28 $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 Q1-00Q3-01Q1-03Q3-04Q1-06Q3-07Q1-09Q3-10Q1-12Q3-13Q1-15Q3-16California Non Residential Permit Values -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%2006:Q12007:Q12008:Q12009:Q12010:Q12011:Q12012:Q12013:Q12014:Q12015:Q12016:Q12017:Q1Real GDP Growth (y-o-y) US CA January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 39 Analysis. Answers. Exports / Travel 29 $50,000 $70,000 $90,000 $110,000 $130,000 $150,000 $170,000 $190,000 $210,000 $230,000 200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017California Exports (Nominal) 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 Jan-07Nov-07Sep-08Jul-09May-10Mar-11Jan-12Nov-12Sep-13Jul-14May-15Mar-16Jan-17California Airport Activity (Arrivals / Departures) January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 40 Analysis. Answers. The Big Slowdown 30 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%Jan-11Aug-11Mar-12Oct-12May-13Dec-13Jul-14Feb-15Sep-15Apr-16Nov-16Jun-17State and National Job Growth Nov-17 14-15 15-16 16-17 Inland Empire 1,470,000 4.8%3.4%3.2% Ventura 309,700 1.5%1.5%2.2% Sacramento 978,700 3.5%3.1%2.1% San Francisco 1,125,700 4.9%3.3%2.0% Fresno 346,000 3.9%3.2%1.7% San Jose 1,102,100 3.9%2.8%1.7% Kern 260,400 -0.5%-0.5%1.6% San Diego 1,457,400 3.2%2.3%1.5% East Bay 1,162,400 3.5%2.9%1.4% Stockton 231,300 4.3%2.8%1.4% Sonoma 203,900 2.8%1.6%1.1% Orange 1,600,700 3.2%1.6%0.8% Los Angeles 4,465,200 2.8%2.3%0.8%January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 41 Analysis. Answers. Labor Supply Constraints 31 -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8%Jan-04Feb-05Mar-06Apr-07May-08Jun-09Jul-10Aug-11Sep-12Oct-13Nov-14Dec-15Jan-17California Labor Force Growth 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Jan-90Jan-92Jan-94Jan-96Jan-98Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12Jan-14Jan-16Unemployment Rate January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 42 Analysis. Answers. The Upside of Labor Shortages 32 Number (Mil) Median Income 2016 Change 13-16 Part Rate 2016 Change 13-16 Unemp 2016 Change 13-16 Total 20.96 40,005 10.2%77.1%0.2%5.5%-3.0% No High School 3.52 21,558 13.1%65.4%-0.5%8.2%-3.7% High School 4.26 30,231 10.9%72.6%-0.4%7.0%-4.0% Some College 6.14 36,985 3.1%77.4%0.1%5.5%-3.4% Bachelor 7.03 60,121 9.4%85.4%0.4%3.6%-1.6% Graduate 82,271 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 43 Analysis. Answers. Population Shifts 33 -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Net Migration (% of Pop) by region Northeast Region Midwest Region South Region West Region Florida 1.51%Ohio -0.05% Nevada 1.27%Penn -0.06% Colorado 1.10%Wisconsin -0.08% Oregon 1.08%Michigan -0.08% South Carolina 1.04%New Jersey -0.14% Washington 0.99%Vermont -0.19% Arizona 0.96%W Virginia -0.26% Texas 0.90%New York -0.27% North Dakota 0.79%Mississippi -0.28% Idaho 0.77%Kansas -0.30% Delaware 0.66%Connecticut -0.32% North Carolina 0.66%Wyoming -0.35% Montana 0.60%New Mexico -0.47% Georgia 0.54%Illinois -0.58% Tennessee 0.53%Alaska -0.73% Net Migration by State 14-16 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 44 Analysis. Answers. Don’t Go West, Young Man? 34 -0.50% -0.30% -0.10% 0.10% 0.30% 0.50% 0.70% 0.90% 1.10% 1.30% 1.50%19751978198119841987199019931996199920022005200820112014Net Migration as a % of Pop 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 1000.00 1200.00 1400.00 Jun-90Aug-92Oct-94Dec-96Feb-99Apr-01Jun-03Aug-05Oct-07Dec-09Feb-12Apr-14Jun-16Home Prices US CA LA SF January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 45 Analysis. Answers. New Housing Supply 35 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 Q1-95Q3-96Q1-98Q3-99Q1-01Q3-02Q1-04Q3-05Q1-07Q3-08Q1-10Q3-11Q1-13Q3-14Q1-16New Home Permits SF MF How Much Housing Needed? Housing Needed to maintain 2% State Job Growth Method 1 Total 722,022 Per Year 206,674 Current 106,185 Shortfall 100,489 Method 2 Total 911,001 Per Year 263,667 Current 106,185 Shortfall 157,482 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 46 Analysis. Answers. Employment Cont’d 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Dec-02Nov-03Oct-04Sep-05Aug-06Jul-07Jun-08May-09Apr-10Mar-11Feb-12Jan-13Dec-13Nov-14Oct-15Sep-16Aug-17Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate 36 1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 Dec-02Jan-04Feb-05Mar-06Apr-07May-08Jun-09Jul-10Aug-11Sep-12Oct-13Nov-14Dec-15Jan-17Household Employment (000s) January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 47 Analysis. Answers.37 East Bay Employment Industry 2017 Change (000s) Annual Growth (%) Total Nonfarm 1,155.6 20.7 1.8 Construction 71.3 3.8 5.6 Wholesale Trade 51.3 2.3 4.7 Education/Health 191.4 6.5 3.5 Real Estate 17.6 0.6 3.4 Prof Sci and Tech 98.8 3.1 3.2 Finance and Insurance 41.6 1.3 3.2 Leisure and Hospitality 114.0 2.6 2.3 Government 177.3 3.5 2.0 Other Services 39.9 0.7 1.8 Information 26.8 0.4 1.5 Management 22.7 0.3 1.4 NR/Mining 0.9 0.0 0.0 Manufacturing 89.7 -0.2 -0.2 Logistics 38.5 -0.2 -0.5 Retail Trade 112.5 -2.5 -2.2 Admin Support 61.4 -1.4 -2.2 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 Q3-00 Q4-04 Q1-09 Q2-13 Q3-17 Nonfarm Employment YoY (%) January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 48 Analysis. Answers. Employment 38 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 Unemployment Rate 440000 460000 480000 500000 520000 540000 560000 580000 Labor Force and Growth Rate January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 49 Analysis. Answers. Contra Costs Industry 39 Industry Q2-17 1 Yr Chg.5 Yr Chg.Location Quotient Total Employment 367.2 2.3 13.8 - Admin Support 23.3 15.3 25.6 1.0 Manufacturing 15.6 5.4 -10.9 0.6 Other Svcs.14.5 3.9 19.6 1.1 Education 7.3 3.3 10.6 1.1 Health Care 61 3.0 23.7 1.3 Wholesale Trade 10.6 2.8 28.5 0.7 Leisure and Hospitality 40.8 1.8 22.4 1.0 Government 47 1.0 4.6 0.4 Fin. Svcs. and Real Estate 27.2 1.0 7.2 1.5 Retail Trade 43.3 0.6 5.4 1.2 NR/Construction 25.3 -0.3 30 1.4 Information 8 -0.5 -5.5 0.7 Prof, Sci, Tech, and Mgmt 31.4 -0.9 6.5 1.0January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 50 Analysis. Answers. Taxable Sales & Receipts 40 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 $ Millions (SA)Taxable Sales Category ($Millions)% Change 1 yr 5 yr Total 41.6 2.7%20.9% General Consumer Goods 9.3 1.7%4.5% Autos and Transportation 7.3 1.5%46.3% Restaurants and hotels 4.8 3.1%39.9% Fuel and service stations 3.9 10.0%-10.0% Building and Construction 3.7 9.2%44.5% Business and Industry 3.5 -6.9%-0.1% Food and Drugs 2.7 3.9%13.9% January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 51 Analysis. Answers. Commercial Permitting 41 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 $ Thousands (SA)Commercial Permits 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 $ Thousands (SA)Value by Type Store Office Alterations IndustrialJanuary 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 52 Analysis. Answers. Office Market 42 10 12 14 16 18 20 % (SA)Submarket Vacancy Rates North Contra Costa North I-680 West Contra Costa 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 $ (SA)Submarket Rents North Contra Costa North I-680 West Contra CostaJanuary 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 53 Analysis. Answers. Retail Market 43 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 $ (SA)Submarket Rents Central Contra Costa E Contra Costa W Contra Costa 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 % (SA)Submarket Vacancy Rates Contra Costa E Contra Costa W Contra Costa January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 54 Analysis. Answers.44 Residential Real Estate 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Q1-00Q3-01Q1-03Q3-04Q1-06Q3-07Q1-09Q3-10Q1-12Q3-13Q1-15Q3-16ThousandsSingle-Family Homes Sales Median Price -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 San MateoSan FranciscoSanta ClaraAlamedaMarinOrangeLos AngelesSan DiegoSonomaSan Luis ObispoKingsNapaVenturaTulareContra CostaRiversideSolanoSan BenitoMontereySanta BarbaraSan BernardinoPercent Change from Previous Peak January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 55 Analysis. Answers. Residential Housing 45 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 Q1-00Q1-02Q1-04Q1-06Q1-08Q1-10Q1-12Q1-14Q1-16Sales (SA)Home Sales 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Q1-01Q1-03Q1-05Q1-07Q1-09Q1-11Q1-13Q1-15Q1-17$ Thousands (SA)Median Prices January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 56 Analysis. Answers. Supply is Limited 46 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 Jan-90Mar-92May-94Jul-96Sep-98Nov-00Jan-03Mar-05May-07Jul-09Sep-11Nov-13Jan-16Months of Supply Alameda Contra Costa 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016Housing Vacancy Rate January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 57 Analysis. Answers. Rental Markets 47 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Q3-02Q3-03Q3-04Q3-05Q3-06Q3-07Q3-08Q3-09Q3-10Q3-11Q3-12Q3-13Q3-14Q3-15Q3-16Q3-17Apartment Rent and Vacancy Rates Rent Vacancy Q3 -2017 Annual Change Submarket Rent Vacancy Rate Rent (%) Vacancy (p.p) Concord/Martinez 1,814 1.9 1.3%-0.2 East Alameda 2,394 4.9 1.1%2.0 East Contra Costa 1,777 3.6 7.6%1.2 Fremont/Newark/ Union City 2,216 2.5 0.0%0.0 North Alameda 2,486 5.2 0.3%-0.5 San Leandro/Hayward 2,030 2.3 4.3%0.8 San Ramon/Walnut Creek 2,386 2.6 2.5%0.1 West Contra Costa 1,978 3.4 2.1%0.0January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 58 Analysis. Answers.48 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Permits Issued (SA)CC Residential Building Permits Single Family Multi-Family Permits / Housing Alameda 599,780 40,076 7.2% Oakland city 167,027 2,984 1.8% Contra Costa 410,814 21,680 5.6% San Francisco 392,823 36,337 10.2% San Mateo 275,947 9,555 3.6% Santa Clara 665,098 55,311 9.1% San Jose city 333,355 31,777 10.5% 5 County 2,344,462 162,959 7.5% New Jobs 473529 Ratio 2.91 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 59 Analysis. Answers. Rent Burden and Housing Stock 49 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016%Median Rent as % of Income Single Family Location 2016 1 Year Change 5 Year Change Abs.%Abs.% Contra Costa 305,280 5,756 1.9%14,234 4.9% Concord 30,968 -243 -0.8%484 1.6% Antioch 29,850 -273 -0.9%1,503 5.3% Richmond 26,025 209 0.8%742 2.9% Multi-Family Location 2016 1 Year Change 5 Year Change Abs.%Abs.% Contra Costa 97,621 2,785 2.9%5,887 6.4% Concord 15,065 -314 -2.0%264 1.8% Antioch 6,219 1,053 20.4%257 4.3% Richmond 11,319 -3,596 -24.1%-3,018 -21.1%January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 60 Analysis. Answers. Don’t Just Focus on Affordable Rentals 50 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % Renters Spending >30% of Income on Housing CA 2014 2016 Change Less than $20k 92.7%92.5%-0.2% $20k to $35k 89.0%89.2%0.2% $35k to $50k 67.3%71.9%4.6% $50k to $75k 41.1%46.1%5.0% $75k+10.5%11.8%1.3% All 56.8%55.4%-1.4% January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 61 Analysis. Answers. Filtering Blockage 51 Renters by Income: Struture Built Before 1970 Metro Household Income Less than $35,000 Household Income $35,000 to $74,999 Household Income $75,000 or More San Francisco 26.5%22.2%51.2% East Bay 31.4%32.6%36.0% San Diego 35.0%33.5%31.5% Orange 32.4%36.3%31.3% Los Angeles 40.2%31.7%28.0% Houston 45.4%31.4%23.2% Inland Empire 47.5%30.7%21.8% Phoenix 50.3%28.2%21.5% Dallas 46.6%33.0%20.4%January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 62 Analysis. Answers. The Big Picture •Positives: It will be a good year –GDP Growth Outlook for 2018: 3% –State revenues will look positive –Labor markets to remain tight, constraining growth –Rising wages to put pressure on profits –Exports, business investment continue to pick up –California housing shortages will constrain growth locally •Negatives –Fed will continue to tighten, yield curve flattening –Markets looking frothy—watch debt levels –Consumer savings: entering dangerous waters –Federal deficit will widen sharply –Political uncertainty to dominate headlines 52 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 63 Analysis. Answers. The Great Disconnect What we are worried about What we should be worried about 53 The Number of Jobs The Number of Workers Who pays for Healthcare What are we paying for? Tax Levels Tax Structure Income Inequality Wealth Inequality Funded Govt. Liabilities Unfunded Govt. Liabilities Business Investment A Lack of Public Investment Inflation Slowing Lending The Cost of CA Housing The Supply of CA Housing January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 64 Analysis. Answers.54 Economic & Revenue Forecasting Regional Intelligence Reports Business & Market Analysis Real Estate Market Analysis Ports & Infrastructure Analysis Economic Impact Analysis Public Policy Analysis To view or download this presentation or for further information, visit: www.BeaconEcon.com Contact Christopher Thornberg Chris@BeaconEcon.com 310-571-3399 Our Services January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 65   Christopher  Thornberg     Christopher  Thornberg  is  Founding  Partner  of  Beacon  Economics,   LLC  and   widely   considered   to   be  one   of  the   nation’s  leading   economists.  He   is   also   Director   of   the   UC   Riverside   School   of   Business  Center  for  Economic  Forecasting  and  Development  and   an   Adjunct   Professor   at   the   School.  An   expert   in   economic   forecasting,  regional  economics,  labor  markets,  economic  policy,   and  real   estate  analysis,  he   was   one   of   the   earliest  and   most   adamant  predictors  of  the  subprime  mortgage  market  crash  that   began   in   2007,  and   of   the  global  economic   recession   that   followed.  Since  2006,  he  has  served  on  the  advisory  board  of  Wall   Street  hedge  fund,  Paulson  &  Co.  Inc.    In  2015,  he  was  named  to   California  State  Treasurer  John  Chiang’s  Council  of  Economic  Advisors,  the  body  that  advises   the  Treasurer  on  emerging  strengths  and  vulnerabilities  within  the  state’s  economy.  From  2008   to  2012,  he  served  as  economic  advisor  to  the  California  State  Controller’s  Office,  and  as  Chair   of  then  State  Controller  John  Chiang’s  Council  of  Economic  Advisors.     A   highly   sought   after   speaker,   Dr.   Thornberg   regularly   presents   to   leading   business,   government,  and  nonprofit  organizations  across  the  globe  including  Chevron,  The  New  Yorker,   City  National  Bank,  REOMAC,  the  California  State  Association  of  Counties,  Colliers  International,   State  Farm  Insurance,  the  City  of  Los  Angeles,  and  the  California  and  Nevada  Credit  Union   League,  among  many  others.  He  has  testified  before  the  U.S.  Congress  House  Committee  on   Financial   Ser vices   on   municipal   debt   issues,   and   before   the   California   State   Assembly   Committee  on  Revenue  and  Taxation  regarding  rule  changes  related  to  Proposition  13.     Dr.  Thornberg  has  been  involved  in  conducting  research  and  developing  analytic  products  for   international   clients   that   explore   the  trade   and   economic   connections   between   the   United   States   and   the   world.   This   has   included   analysis   and   speaking   presentations   regarding   the   impact   that   U.S.   trading   partners   have   on   U.S.   global   competitiveness   for   the   Centre   for   Investor  Education  in  Melbourne  Australia,  the  state  of  U.S.  and  U.K.  housing  markets  for  the   British  Chamber  of  Commerce  in  Hong  Kong,  and  U.S.  and  international  economic  outlooks  and       January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 66 -­‐2-­‐     their  effect  on  global  trade  activity  for  the  African  Cashew  Alliance  in  Cotonou,  Benin.    He  has   also  conducted  a  number  of  special  studies  measuring  the  effect  of  important  events  on  the   economy  including  the  NAFTA  treaty,  the  California  electricity  crisis,  port  security,  California’s   water  transfer  programs,  and  the  terrorist  attacks  of  September  11,  2001.         Dr.  Thornberg  serves  on  the  Residential  Real  Estate  Committee  at  the  University  of  San  Diego’s   Burnham-­‐Moores  Center  for  Residential  Real  Estate.  He  is  also  a  panel  member  of  the  National   Association   of   Business   Economists’   quarterly  “Outlook,”  a  contributor   to   the  “Economic   Consensus  Outlook”  published  by  the  Journal  of  Business  Forecasting,  and  a  contributor  to   monthly  economics  polls  published  by  Reuters.       Dr.   Thornberg  also  serves  on   the   boards   of   a   number   of   business,   civic,  and   nonprofit   organizations   including   on   the   Board   of   Directors   of   the   Los   Angeles   Area   Chamber   of   Commerce,  as  an  Executive  Member  of  the  Central  City  Association  (Los  Angeles),  as  a  Business   Leader   Member   of   America's   Edge,   a   nonprofit   organization   focused   on   strengthening   businesses  and  the  economy  through  public  investments  in  youth  and  education,  and  on  the   Advisory  Board  of  the  Asian  Real  Estate  Association  of  America.  He  is  also  a  member  of  the  Los   Angeles  Chapter  of  Lamda  Alpha  International,  the  honorary  society  for  the  advancement  of   land  economics,  and  serves  on  the  Advisory  Committee  of  United  Ways  of  California’s  coming   California  Financial  Stability  Report.     Prior   to   launching   Beacon  Economics  Dr.   Thornberg  was   a   senior   economist  with   UCLA’s   Anderson  Forecast  where  he  regularly  authored  economic  outlooks  for  California,  Los  Angeles,   the  East  Bay,  and  developed  specialized  forecasts  for  a  variety  of  public  and  private  entities.  He   previously   taught   in   the   MBA  program   at   UCLA’s   Anderson   School,   in   the   Rady   School   of   Business  at  UCSD,  and  at  Thammasat  University  in  Bangkok,  Thailand.  He  has  also  held  a  faculty   position  in  the  economics  department  at  Clemson  University.     A   well-­‐known   media   commentator,   Dr.   Thornberg   has   appeared   on   CNN   and   NPR   and   is   regularly  quoted  in  major  national  dailies  including  the  Wall  Street  Journal  and  New  York  Times.     Originally  from  upstate  New  York,  Dr.  Thornberg  holds  a  Ph.D  in  Business  Economics  from  The   Anderson   School   at   UCLA,   and   a   B.S.  degree  in   Business   Administration   from   the   State   University  of  New  York  at  Buffalo.     January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 67 RECOMMENDATION(S): ACCEPT report on Budget and Key Issues for FY 2017/18 and beyond. FISCAL IMPACT: No fiscal impact. This is an informational report only. BACKGROUND: Attached is the report on Budget and Key Issues. APPROVE OTHER RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD COMMITTEE Action of Board On: 01/30/2018 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER Clerks Notes: VOTE OF SUPERVISORS AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor Diane Burgis, District III Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District IV Supervisor Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor Contact: Lisa Driscoll, County Finance Director (925) 335-1023 I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown. ATTESTED: January 30, 2018 David J. Twa, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors By: Jami Napier , Deputy cc: Robert Campbell, County Auditor-Controller D.4 To:Board of Supervisors From:David Twa, County Administrator Date:January 30, 2018 Contra Costa County Subject:Board of Supervisors Annual Retreat Budget and Key Issues for FY 2017/18 and Beyond January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 68 CLERK'S ADDENDUM Public Speakers: Mariana Moore and Cheryl Sudduth from the Budget Justice Coalition. DIRECTED staff to provide an update on the status of establishing the Countywide Redevelopment Oversight Board and process for selecting the two appointees, to leave a slot open for the Public Defender if she chooses to make a presentation at the budget hearing; and REQUESTED the Public Works Director to make a presentation at the budget hearing. ATTACHMENTS Budget & Key Issues January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 69 Contra Costa County UpdateBudget & Key IssuesPresentation to Board of Supervisors January 30, 20181January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes70 2January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes71 Contra Costa CountyFamiliar Budget Drivers and Challenges for 2018 and Beyond•Economic Forecast•State & Federal Budgets•Labor Negotiations•Build Reserves•Fund Infrastructure Needs (Repair & Maintenance)•Fund System Infrastructure •Adequately Fund Public Safety Departments & Health Departments•Public Safety Realignment; AB 109 & Prop 473January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes72 Property Taxes•Median household income higher than statewide median•Less total tax revenue now than at our peak, after adjusting for population and inflation.4Per Capita and inflation adjusted (CSAC Report)January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes73 5Bay Area Unemployment RateNovember, 2017 (Unadjusted)•San Mateo 2.1%•Marin2.2%•San Francisco2.3%•Santa Clara2.6%•Sonoma2.8%•Alameda2.9%•Contra Costa3.1%•Napa3.3%•Solano3.9%•9 County Average 2.8% (3.7% Last Year)January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes74 2017/2018 Achievements•Hired New Department Head•District Attorney, Diana Becton•Budget structurally balanced for 7thyear in a row, built on assumption of 5% increase in assessed valuations, actual AV was 5.7%•Maintained our AAA bond rating from Standard & Poor’s, Contra Costa County “fundamentally sound, and had a stable outlook for the future”•Implemented a new countywide budgeting system, SHERPA, that was used successfully for the development of the $3.5 billion FY 2017-18 budget. The state-of-the-art application includes a robust budget preparation application that includes operating and capital budgeting, in-year budget management, smart database design, and the most comprehensive personnel forecasting engine on the market. Approximately 120 users from county departments were trained on the system.6January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes75 More 2017/2018 Achievements•$100 million lease revenue bond •$10 million for hospital and clinic system projects.•$90 million to refinance existing debt at historically low interest rates (2.33%, saving more than $9 million in today’s dollars)•$100 million lease revenue bond (15 year term at 2.387% interest rate)•$60 million for new County Administration facility, including a structure for additional parking •$40 million for new Emergency Operations Center•$70 million grant from the state to replace beds in the Martinez Detention Facility with a new high-security, 416-bed facility on the campus of the West County Detention Facility. •Facility will include seven high-security housing units, a reentry services complex, a child/parent contact visitation center and a medical/psychiatric services clinic•All of the resources will be available to both men and women7January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes76 •Property taxes declined by over 11% between 2009 and 2012. There were significant increases between 2014 and 2016. Now returning to a more normal increase of around 5% going into the next few years.•Actual Contra Costa County experience:•2009/10 (7.19% decline)•2010/11 (3.38 decline)•2011/12 (0.49% decline)•2012/13 0.86% increase•2013/14 3.45% increase•2014/15 9.09% increase•2015/16 7.53% increase•2016/17 6.01% increase•2017/18 5.78% increase •2018/19 5.00% increase projectedCounty Property Tax8January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes77 Contra Costa Fire District Property Tax•For fire, property taxes declined by over 13% between 2009 and 2013. These taxes then significantly increased between 2014 and 2016. Now returning to a more normal increase of around 5% going into the next few years.•Actual District experience:•2009-10 (7.8%)•2010-11 (2.4%)•2011-12 (1.9%)•2012-13 (1.2%)•2013-14 5.9%•2014-15 9.3%•2015-16 6.9%•2016-17 6.32%•2017-18 5.53%•2018-19 5.00% Increase projected9January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes78 Redevelopment Dissolution•Successor Agency Oversight Boards consolidate into one Countywide Oversight Board effective July 1, 2018•Countywide Oversight Board staffed by the Auditor-Controller via Conservation and Development Department•New Oversight Board Composition includes seven seats•1 member appointed by the county board of supervisors •1 member appointed by the city selection committee established pursuant to Section 50270 of the Government Code. (Contra Costa Mayor’s Conference)•1 member appointed by the independent special district selection committee established pursuant to Section 56332 of the Government Code (Contra Costa Special District’s Association)•1 member appointed by the county superintendent of education to represent schools if the superintendent is elected •1 member appointed by the Chancellor of the California Community Colleges to represent community college districts in the county. •1 member of the public appointed by the county board of supervisors•1 member appointed by the recognized employee organization representing the largest number of successor agency employees in the county. (DCD Conducting Survey of Current Successor Agencies)•Board will need to determine a process for making appointments •Any unfilled seats as of July 15, 2018 can be filled by the Governor10January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes79 Fiscal Year 2017-18General Fund Budgeted Revenue $1.562 Billion11Other Local, $507,851,293, 32%Federal, $282,299,051, 18%State, $337,327,920, 22%General Purpose, $435,035,000, 28%January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes80 FY 2017-18 General Fund Appropriations $1.56 Billion12Salaries and Benefits, 869,530,457, 49%Expenditure Transfers, -114,143,735, -6%Fixed Assets, 26,300,990, 1%Services and Supplies, 524,259,491, 29%Other Charges, 244,066,061, 14%Provisions for Contingencies, 10,000,000, 1%January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes81 FY 17-18 Distribution General Fund Appropriations13Health & Human Services, $851,553,131, 55%General Government, $285,968,650, 18%Law & Justice, $422,491,483, 27%January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes82 FY 2017/18 Mid-year Preliminary StatsBudget Performing As Expected 14Mid-Year 17-18 Mid-Year 16-17 Mid-Year 15-16 Mid-Year 14-15ALL FUNDS Budget Actual Percent Percent Percent PercentExpenditures 3,481,558,504 1,447,820,821 41.6%43.5%40.8%43.5%Revenues3,643,507,424 1,588,664,485 43.6%42.9%44.1%44.0%GENERAL FUNDBudget Actual PercentPercentPercentPercentExpenditures1,597,751,688 598,765,615 37.5%42.5%41.6%43.7%Revenues1,696,879,727 685,030,565 40.4%38.6%38.2%37.1%Wages & Benefits874,009,322 401,679,553 46.0%45.8%46.0%45.9%Services & Supplies580,570,786 222,178,717 38.3%40.3%38.5%41.3%Other Charges245,982,271 99,454,401 40.4%46.7%46.4%51.0%Fixed Assets102,327,058 14,730,620 14.4%14.1%8.5%15.1%Inter-departmental Charges(113,938,956) (53,012,837) 46.5%41.2%48.1%53.2%Contingencies7,929,245 111 0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Total Expenses $ 1,696,879,727 $ 685,030,565 40.4%42.5%41.6%43.7%Taxes386,935,000 230,920,844 59.7%63.4%63.7%65.5%Licenses, Permits, Franchises 10,819,467 3,380,656 31.2%21.2%28.0%27.0%Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties 24,643,179 1,880,529 7.6%8.5%7.8%7.0%Use of Money & Property5,282,645 2,576,446 48.8%621.1%10.3%59.9%Federal/State Assistance 578,862,326 191,098,646 33.0%31.9%28.3%29.3%Charges for Current Services253,397,192 98,314,255 38.8%41.8%40.9%31.6%Other Revenue315,311,879 70,594,240 22.4%20.4%28.4%26.7%Total Revenues $ 1,575,251,688 $ 598,765,615 38.0%38.6%38.2%37.1%January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes83 Contract Status15Total Number Contractof Permanent Employees 1Expiration DateBargaining UnitsAFSCME Local 2700, United Clerical, Technical and Specialized Employees 1,590 6/30/2019AFSCME Local 512, Professional and Technical Employees241 6/30/2019California Nurses Association1,067 1/31/20182CCC Defenders Association 73 6/30/2018CCC Deputy District Attorneys’ Association 91 6/30/2018Deputy Sheriff’s Association, Mgmt Unit and Rank and File Unit 839 6/30/2019Deputy Sheriff’s Association, Probation Peace Officers Association243 6/30/2018District Attorney Investigator’s Association 16 6/30/2019IAFF Local 1230300 6/30/2020IHSS SEIU - 20156/30/2018Physicians and Dentists of Contra Costa 275 2/28/20182Professional & Technical Engineers – Local 21, AFL-CIO1,065 6/30/2019Public Employees Union, Local One & FACS Site Supervisor Unit556 6/30/2019SEIU Local 1021, Rank and File and Service Line Supervisors Units886 6/30/2019Teamsters, Local 856 1,707 6/30/2019United Chief Officers' Association12 6/30/2020Western Council of Engineers 26 6/30/2019Management Classified & Exempt & Management Project421 n/aTotal9,408 1 Permanent number of filled Positions as of December 2017 (not FTE)2 Currently in NegotiationsJanuary 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes84 Contra Costa County Unemployment Rate2008 - 2017165.4%8.6%11.3%11.1%9.7%8.6%6.9%5.7%4.6%4.3%7.5%10.6%10.5%9.3%8.0%6.5%5.2%4.5%3.9%3.1%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017JanuaryDecemberJanuary 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes85 Infrastructure•Repair; Maintenance; and Development of New Buildings and Technology•In 2020/21 the new administration building and the new EOC will come on line and will reduce the current $272 million backlog by over $30 million•The west county jail reuse will also come on line in 2020/21 and will require new staffing levels, as well as additional mental health providers•To significantly reduce the remaining $242 million cannot be addressed at the current funding of $10 million per year•A 5 year Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) should concentrate on reducing the number of buildings currently owned by the County and consolidating as many of the remaining buildings as possible, including increasing the number of buildings leased as opposed to owned•In 2017 we completed the upgrade to our PeopleSoft system at a cost of $13.6 million (to date) •Over the next 5 years we will need to upgrade our Payroll, Finance and Tax systems at a cost of approximately $15 million for each system •Future of the County Hospital, Clinics, and Health Plan•It will become increasingly difficult to support a stand-alone County Hospital. We will need to look at alternatives17January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes86 Pension Cost Management•Following carefully•Monitoring changes by state and CCCERA board•New PEPRA tiers as of 1/1/2013•No extension of amortization•No change in 5-year smoothing•No change in pooling•Assumed rate of return 7.00%•Active payroll growth of 3.25% per annum •Updates:•FY 2017-18 Recommended Budget -$328 M •Chart includes the final year of debt service for county and fire pension obligation bonds, both of which pay off in FY 2021-2218Actual and Projected* Retirement ExpenseThe chart includes four years of actual data, straight-line projection of current year (based upon six months of actual data), and projection of future years based upon current year wages and actuarial data provided by CCCERA’s actuary (letter dated August 18, 2017) assuming that CCCERA achieves its assumed rate of return each of these years. This data will be updated in March for the FY 2018/19 budget based upon 12/31/2017 CCCERA market impacts.$272$309$282$282$306$308$312$317$314$256$200$220$240$260$280$300$320$340$360FY 13-14ActualFY 14-15ActualFY 15-16ActualFY 16-17ActualFY 17-18Proj.FY 18-19Proj.FY 19-20Proj.FY 20-21Proj.FY 21-22Proj.FY 22-23Proj.MillionsJanuary 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes87 Retirements19High numbers of vacant positions due to unprecedented numbers of retirements during calendar year 2011 and 2012 are beginning to recover. Historically March retirements are the highest. Retirement numbers appear to have returned to normal.01002003004005006007002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20171302211794133081412081741561458566105208815891406483Balance of YearMonth of MarchJanuary 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes88 Increase To Full-time-equivalent Positions•After several years of no growth – steady increase has begun•Increase of 1,580 FTE in last five years (8,329 to 9,877)20Note: Budgeted 2017-18 FTE figures are those authorized as of July 1, 2017 including vacanciesActual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Budgeted2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-18General Government 728 707 712 728 739 751 775Public Protection2,565 2,565 2,566 2,624 2,637 2,701 2,730Health and Sanitation2,876 2,866 3,014 3,259 3,693 3,855 3,855Public Assistance1,722 1,815 2,106 2,203 2,245 2,089 2,022Eduction175 175 175 178 180 194 194Public Ways and Facilities263263279281284287288Total 8,329 8,391 8,852 9,273 9,778 9,877 9,864January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes89 21Current Recruitments•2018 New Department Heads and Key Staff •Public Works Director•Economic Development Manager•Health Services Director•Chief Assistant County Administrator•Public Information Officer•Chief Information Officer•Assistant Information OfficerJanuary 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes90 Community Corrections Partnership•CCP passed a FY 18/19 Budget Recommendation of $27,462,512 in December 2017, an increase of 6% over the current year. PPC to consider in February 2018•CCP budget continues to rely on approximately $2.5 million in 18/19 of CCP fund balance (expenses exceed revenues)•Fund balance use includes year 2 of the annual $500k contribution to Stand Together CoCo, Immigration Rapid Response Program (3 year pilot-project)•Assuming just a 2% increase each year to expenditures over the next 5 years, the County would be required to draw $6.9 million from CCP fund balance to fund AB109 programs over that period•Assuming a FY 18/19 estimated fund balance of $21 million, fund balance would be reduced to $14.1 million at the close of FY 22/23•At $14.1 million, fund balance would be at 47% of FY 22/23 projected expenditures. Goal is 50% of expenditures (Approx. 6 months of operations)22January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes91 23Community Corrections PartnershipJanuary 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes92 Contra Costa Fire Protection District•Reasons For Optimism•Settled with Local 1230 and UCOA through 2021•Employer share of pension costs stable and decreasing in 18/19•“Alliance” ambulance program stable (for now)•Station 16 (Lafayette) and 70 (San Pablo) projects close to breaking ground•Reasons For Concern•Property Tax revenue increases slowing •Reducing 18/19 assumption to 5% growth from 6%•Cost of labor contracts •$8.7 million in 18/19 (total three year cost of $23.3 million)•Continued strain on operating fund•Scheduled debt service payments increasing approx. $700k/yr. through 2022•Additional engine company at Station 1 beginning in March 2018•Future staffing of Station 16 once constructed24January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes93 Contra Costas Fire – EMS Transport Fund•Reasons For Optimism•“Alliance” ambulance program stable•Operating revenues exceeding projections (for now)•Initial $3 million borrowing from District operating fund repaid in 17/18•Reasons For Concern•Future of healthcare funding continues to be uncertain•California single payer system?•Affordable Care Act repeal or defunding?•EMS Transport Fund reserve•Goal is 50% of annual cost of ambulance services - $21 million•First Ground Emergency Medical Transportation (GEMT) allocation anticipated at approximately $700,000 (original projection at $5 - $6 million) •EMS Transport Reserve Recommendation•CAO recommends budgeting annual reserve contributions of $2 million /yr. to fund the $21 million goal. •This recognizes that the District has ongoing receivables of approx. $10 million at any given time.25January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes94 Continued Reasons For Optimism•Positive Economic Outlook •California economic outlook stable for next year•AV Revenue up 5.8% for FY 2017/18 and projected to grow by 5% in 2018/19•Positive County Results•Budget structurally balanced for seventh year in a row•Employee wages increased•Over 1,500 new employee positions added in past 5 years •Most departments fully staffed •OPEB managed•Have begun pre-funding infrastructure needs•Fund balance increased•Maintained our AAA bond rating from Standard & Poor’s, and received upgrade on lease bonds from Moody’s (from A1 to aa3) with both agencies commenting on fact that Contra Costa County was “fundamentally sound, and had a stable outlook for the future.”•Pension Obligation Bond matures 6/1/2022 ($47,382,000)26January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes95 Reasons For Concern•Federal and State economy likely to slow or enter recession by 2020•Prop 172 sales tax revenue increases slowing in 2018/19 •Revenues are not projected to keep up with expenditures for 2017/18 nor are they projected to do so for 2018/19 and beyond•Aging technology –Finance & Tax systems•Labor negotiations •CCCERA’s Net Pension Liability is $1.4 Billion (as of 12/31/16) and there is more unfunded liability coming•Increased costs of benefits – pension assumed rate of return is 7.00% - actual returns for 2015 were 2.6%, 2016 returns were 7.4%, 2017 likely to exceed the 7% figure•Economy is driven by technology not labor, social systems are changing, and institutions and leaders struggling to meet the needs of the 21stCentury •Federal government not likely to respond to counties needs •Unreasonable expectations given funding available27January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes96 28Continue Focus On•Focus on current needs but look for long term solutions – five year minimums•Developing staff•Continuing to harness our organizational discipline and innovation •Providing public services that improve the quality of life of our residents and the economic viability of our businessesJanuary 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes97 FY 2018-19 Budget Hearing Format•Draft agenda for discussion purposes•Introduction/summary by County Administrator•Departmental presentations:•Sheriff-Coroner•District Attorney•Health Services Director•Employment and Human Services Director•Any suggested changes for this year?•Deliberation•Budget Hearing on April 17th(hearing can be continued if needed)•Budget Adoption on May 8th•The Fire Board will receive a budget presentation on the District’s Budget on April 10. Per the norm the Budget Hearing and Adoption will occur along with the Countywide Budget.29January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes98 30“At Every Crossroads On The Path That Leads To The Future, Tradition Has Placed 10,000 Obstacles To Guard The Past” Maurice Maeterlinck January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes99 RECOMMENDATION(S): Accept report on Capital Projects. FISCAL IMPACT: No fiscal impact. This is an informational report only. APPROVE OTHER RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD COMMITTEE Action of Board On: 01/30/2018 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER Clerks Notes: VOTE OF SUPERVISORS AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor Diane Burgis, District III Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District IV Supervisor Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor Contact: Eric Angstadt, Assistant County Administrator 925-335-1009 I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown. ATTESTED: January 30, 2018 David J. Twa, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors By: Jami Napier, Deputy cc: D.5 To:Board of Supervisors From:David Twa, County Administrator Date:January 30, 2018 Contra Costa County Subject:Annual Report on Capital Projects January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 100 ATTACHMENTS New Administration, EOC, and Public Safety Building Presentation January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 101 BOARD OF SUPERVISORS UPDATE CONTRA COSTA COUNTY New Administration Building and Emergency Operations Center / Public Safety Building January 30, 2018 01 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 102 Milestone Schedules Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 2018 M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D EOC / PSB Bridging Documents Procurement Design Construction PARKING LOT Design Documents Procurement Construction ADMINISTRATION BUILDING Bridging Documents Procurement Design Construction 2017 2018 2019 2020 Today 02 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 103 03 •RFQ Issued: •Proposals due: •Confidential Interviews: •Request for Supplemental Information: •Final Response to RSI due: •Notice of Award: •Board Approval: •Contract and NTP: Board of Supervisors January 30, 2018 Design-Build Best Value Procurement Schedule October 2, 2017 January 25, 2018 Jan. 31 and Feb. 1 February 2, 2018 February 9, 2018 February 16, 2018 March 20, 2018 March 21, 2018 •Project Completion: July, 2020 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 104 04 •Crime Lab Building Vacated: •Contractor Notice to Proceed: •Permit/Mobilization/Start Work: •Building Abatement/Demo: •Existing Parking Lot Demo: •New Parking Lot Construction: NEW PARKING LOT Tentative Schedule *PV Array/Shading Project not anticipated to extend work. Board of Supervisors January 30, 2018 January 29, 2018 February 9, 2018 February 16, 2018 February 28, 2018 March 16, 2018 March 30, 2018 •Project Target Completion: July, 2018 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 105 Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 2018 The Morrow House 05 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 106 Emergency Operations Center & Public Safety Building Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 201806 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 107 Site Development Plan •stronger campus environment •better use of outdoor space •distinct civic identity for public safety Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 201807 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 108 Level 1 ADMINISTRATION & WATCH COMMAND EMERGENCY SERVICES DIVISION LECTURE HALL Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 201808 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 109 Level 2 SHERIFF & COMMAND STAFF INTERNAL AFFAIRS EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 201809 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 110 Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 201810 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 111 New Administration Building Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 201811 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 112 Ground Floor Plan UTILITY BOARD ROOM SUPERVISORS CLERK CONFERENCEBoard of Supervisors Update January 30, 201812 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 113 First Floor Plan HUMAN RESOURCES LABOR RELATIONS OPEN TO BELOW Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 201813 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 114 Second Floor Plan COUNTY COUNSEL Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 201814 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 115 Third Floor Plan ADMINISTRATION BREAK ROOMINTERVIEW ROOF BELOW Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 201815 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 116 NORTH FACADE SOUTH FACADE Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 201816 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 117 Animation of Administration Building Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 201817 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 118 QUESTIONS? Board of Supervisors Update January 30, 201818 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 119 RECOMMENDATION(S): ACCEPT report from the Office of Reentry & Justice on the County’s reentry and justice related programs, including the Government Alliance on Race and Equity (GARE). FISCAL IMPACT: No fiscal impact. This is an informational report only. BACKGROUND: Lara DeLaney, acting Director of the Office of Reentry & Justice (ORJ); Donté Blue, Deputy Director of the ORJ; and Dwayne Marsh, Deputy Director Government Alliance on Race and Equity, will provide the Board of Supervisors with an update on the County’s reentry and justice related initiatives. APPROVE OTHER RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD COMMITTEE Action of Board On: 01/30/2018 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER Clerks Notes: VOTE OF SUPERVISORS AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor Diane Burgis, District III Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District IV Supervisor Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor Contact: Lara DeLaney 925.335.1097 I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown. ATTESTED: January 30, 2018 David J. Twa, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors By: Jami Napier , Deputy cc: D.6 To:Board of Supervisors From:David Twa, County Administrator Date:January 30, 2018 Contra Costa County Subject:Board of Supervisors Annual Retreat Update on Office and Reentry & Justice January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 120 CLERK'S ADDENDUM Dwayne March presentation attached. Public Speaker: Debbie Toth from Choice in Aging. AGENDA ATTACHMENTS MINUTES ATTACHMENTS Advancing Racial Equity presentation ORJ Update presentation January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 121 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 122 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 123 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 124 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 125 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 126 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 127 (ORJ) Lara DeLaney, acting ORJ Director Donté Blue, ORJ Deputy Director January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 128 To build on, align, and formalize an office for the advancement of public safety realignment, reentry and justice initiatives in Contra Costa County. Authorized by the Board of Supervisors as 2.5 year Pilot Project of County Administrator’s Office; established January 2017. Community Advisory Board initiated. 2 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 129 Coordinating array of services; facilitating collaborative efforts around policy development, operational practices and supportive services; Advancing knowledge of relevant issues, news, research and best-practices; Fostering capacity-building and partnership development; Conducting the procurement process, contract management for CBO reentry service providers; Developing new initiatives and funding opportunities; Providing project management, staff support; Supporting legislative advocacy; Managing data and evaluation of services; Conducting public outreach, info sharing and community engagement. 3 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 130 1.ORJ Director, acting 2.ORJ Deputy Director 3.Senior Management Analyst 4.Research & Evaluation Manager: FY 18 -19 5.Secretary:0.5 FTE shared with CAO 6.Intern/Fellow (stipend) 4 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 131 1.Reentry Strategic Plan Update: What do we want the Reentry System to look like in 5 years? 2.Pre-Release Planning Project: Developing Individual Reentry Transition Plans prior to release & warm-handoffs from custody to community. 3.Pre-Trial Services: Providing evidenced-based evaluation and supervision services since March 2014, with a 62% success rate. 4.Racial Justice Task Force Project: Reducing disproportionate minority contact with justice system. 5.Youth Justice Initiative (YJI): Youth reentry planning & schoolwide prevention and intervention pilot projects; federally funded 3-year grant in final year. 6.Central & East Ceasefire Program: Focused Deterrence on gang members; gun violence reduction. 7.Government Alliance on Race & Equity (GARE): A national network of government agencies working to achieve racial equity and advance opportunities for all. 8.Stepping Up: A national initiative focused on reducing the number of people with mental illness in County Jail. 9.Smart Reentry Grant: Focusing services on Transition Aged Youth (TAY) population in Antioch (collaboration with Probation) 10.CoCo LEAD +: Prop. 47 funded, based in Antioch, to implement new arrest- diversion protocols and intensive, coordinated services for people with behavioral health issues, repeatedly arrested for an array of low-level, non-violent charges. (Collaboration with Antioch Police, the Contra Costa Housing Authority, the County’s H3, Probation, and CBOs) 5 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 132 State Re-arrested with 3- Years Returned to Prison within 3-Years California 70%66% Florida 79%53% Illinois 77%38% New York 67%56% North Carolina 61%48% Texas 58%26% 6 Source: Fischer 2005 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 133 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 134 2016, 2017 CDCR Report Men comprised more than 90%; their three-year conviction rate for FY 2011-12 is 55%. For 2012-13 it is 46.8% The FY 2011-12 three-year conviction rate for women is 46.8%. For 2012-13 it is 37.6%. Offenders age 18 and 19 have the highest three-year conviction rate of all age groups. It is 67.3 % for FY 2011-12 and 62.4% for those released in 2012-13. The conviction rates of those who received in-prison substance abuse treatment and completed community-based substance abuse treatment programs are lower. Those released in 2011-12 have a three- year conviction rate of 36.7%; 29.2% for those released in 2012-13. 2017 PPIC Report Contra Costa was the only county to see a reduction for 1-year rearrest and reconviction rates for both PRCS (prison to Probation) and 1170(h) (jail to Probation) populations 8 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 135 Public Policy Institute Report (statewide) Contra Costa saw around 1 percentage point drop in 1-year rearrest rate, and about 10 percentage point drop in 1-year reconviction rate 9 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 136 Public Policy Institute Report (statewide) Contra Costa saw around 10 percentage point drop in 1-year rearrest rate, and about 17 percentage point drop in 1-year reconviction rate 10 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 137 Implemented CAB recommended AB 109 Community Programs: Employment, Housing, Mentoring, Family Reunification, Civil Legal Services Developed the Central-East County Reentry Network, managed by HealthRight360 Opened the Reentry Success Center in Nov. 2015 Created a Racial Justice Task Force to study racial disparities in the County Criminal Justice System 11 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 138 Innovative Reentry Projects: Richmond Workforce Development Board, Fast Eddie’s Auto Training Capacity Building Project On-going Trainings from the Central-East Reentry Network, Reentry Success Center Salesforce Implementation 12 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 139 13 Create Strategic Plan •Public Presentation of Strategic Plan •Submit Final Strategic Plan Develop Strategic Activities •Identify Resources •Develop Objective- Specific Activities •Define Performance Measures Direction Setting •Convene Local Planning Team •Create Mission, Vision, Values •Develop Strategic Approach with Identified Goals and Objectives Needs Assessment •Collect Secondary Data •Town Hall meetings •Update Service System Map •Analyze Data Launch & Discovery •Project Launch •Data Source Identification •Preliminary Data Collection •Document Review Expected Completion In April 2018 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 140 1.Working Groups established in Concord, Antioch, Pittsburg, and Brentwood/Oakley 2.Pittsburg Sergeant Cassandra Wilkerson dedicated full-time as Ceasefire Coordinator 3.Outreach List developed (identified as highest risk for gun violence) 4.Antioch developing a “Night Walk” program 5.Pittsburg planning a “Call-in Notification” 6.Technical assistance from Oakland and Richmond Ceasefire programs 14 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 141 1.Program Stats Risk-Based Pre-Trial Release for 892 people to date 64% Success Rate, only 8% arrested for a new crime 2.On the horizon State legislation to replace money bail with risk based assessment New Appeals court ruling requiring a person’s ability to pay be considered when making money bail Currently undertaking a “Front-End” system assessment, to inform program redesign 15 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 142 RJTF launched on April 5, 2017. RJTF meets monthly to identify priorities, review data, discuss best practices, and develop recommendations related to racial disparities in criminal and juvenile justice systems and processes in CCC. 5 Community Forums held in Oct.-Nov. 2017. 3 Planned for March 2018. April –June 2017: Project Launch o Review of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Systems and Data o Identification of Initial Priority Areas July 2017 –Oct. 2017: Focus on Local Law Enforcement o Review data on juvenile and adult arrest trends to identify disparities o Discussion of Best Practices o Development of Preliminary Recommendations Nov. 2017 –Jan. 2018: Focus on Juvenile Justice o Review data on County juvenile justice trends to identify disparities o Discussion of Best Practices o Development of Preliminary Recommendations Feb. 2018 –April 2018: Focus on Criminal Justice o Review data on County criminal justice trends to identify disparities o Discussion of Best Practices o Development of Preliminary Recommendations May 2018 –June 2018: Prioritize and Finalize Recommendations o Integrate and prioritize preliminary recommendations o Finalize recommendations 16 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 143 Dwayne Marsh, Deputy Director for Government Alliance on Race and Equity, will provide his slide deck. 17 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 144 1.Personnel A.Research & Evaluation Manager: Need to recruit and fill for July 1, 2018 start B.Director of Office of Reentry & Justice: Need to develop job description, create class, recruit and fill C.Intern:Recruit, find space 2.Administration A.Communications and Outreach Program: Develop in collaboration with Reentry Network & Reentry Success Center B.Determine outcome of ORJ Pilot Program; final year of Pilot Project budgeted funding FY 2018-19 C.AB 109 Annual Report D.Salesforce Administration E.Racial Equity Action Plan 18 January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 145 RECOMMENDATION(S): Accept report on Contra Costa's Homelessness Continuum of Care. FISCAL IMPACT: No fiscal impact. This is an informational report only. BACKGROUND: Report on Contra Costa's Homelessness Continuum of Care. APPROVE OTHER RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD COMMITTEE Action of Board On: 01/30/2018 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER Clerks Notes: VOTE OF SUPERVISORS AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor Diane Burgis, District III Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District IV Supervisor Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor Contact: Lavonna Martin (925) 608-6700 I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown. ATTESTED: January 30, 2018 David J. Twa, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors By: Jami Napier , Deputy cc: Enid Mendoza, Senior Deputy County Administrator D.7 To:Board of Supervisors From:David Twa, County Administrator Date:January 30, 2018 Contra Costa County Subject:Board of Supervisors Annual Retreat Update on Homeless Continuum of Care January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 146 CLERK'S ADDENDUM Public Speaker: Jerome Knott from Love a Child Missions AGENDA ATTACHMENTS MINUTES ATTACHMENTS Homelessness presentation January 30, 2018 BOS Retreat Minutes 147 Presented to the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors RetreatJanuary 30, 2018cchealth.org/h31January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes148 2January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes149 24% arechronically homeless21% over age 55nearly half are 62+10%of households are families with children56% males45% females16 transgender/don’t identify2/3 report a disabling condition•32% mental health condition•22% chronic health condition3January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes150 District V1360District IV947District III493District II99District I1474EVERYCITY IS AFFECTED BY HOMELESSNESS4January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes151 ON AN IN CONTRA COSTA…More than PEOPLE ARE SLEEPING OUTSIDE in vehicles, tents, or parks.Nearlyadults and children are LIVING IN TEMPORARY SHELTERS.surveyed reported FIRST TIME HOMELESS.At least have been HOMELESS FOR MORE THAN ONE YEAR5January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes152 Lack of housing has been associated with both physical and mental illness.Homelessness has been associated with increased mortality, morbidity, and high utilization of acute care services.There are a small portion of un‐housed individuals that account for a majority of acute care use and cost.6January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes153 Primary Health EmergencyPrimary Health InpatientPrimary Health OutpatientSubstance Use Disorder ServicesPsychiatric EmergencyMental Health InpatientMental Health Outpatient$45Million$13M$32Mn=398 >$25,000n=2772TOTAL CHARGES TO HSD’S HEALTHCARE SYSTEM FY 13‐147January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes154 Homeless HUFY 2013‐20143983326FY 2014‐2015FY 2015‐2016Permanent Supportive Housing78% remained housed8January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes155 Detention admissions dropped 1.7 to 0$61,000 avg. cost/yr. to $33,000PES visits dropped avg. 3.8 to 1 visit ED visit dropped avg. 3.6 to 2.5 visits9January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes156 FY 13‐14: $45M (n=3170)FY 14‐15: $44M (n=3383)FY 15‐16: $118M (n=2970)FY 16‐17:$129M (n=2866)Primary Health EmergencyPrimary Health InpatientPrimary Health OutpatientSubstance Use Disorder ServicesPsychiatric EmergencyMental Health InpatientMental Health OutpatientAmbulanceAncillary Care (ie. SNF, pharmacy)10January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes157 Right‐sizing the system of care Engage partnersTest and evaluate practice and new ideasStretching towards innovation11January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes158 CAREEmergency Shelter and Case ManagementHousing Navigation and Diversion Services12January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes159 Cities of Pleasant Hill, Martinez, Concord, and Walnut Creek. County Public Works Department…and growing.13January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes160 H3 now has qualified requestors!CORE and County Shelter staff have provided:15 referrals2 Approved5 Denied8 PendingBi‐monthly meeting with Behavioral Health Forensics team14January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes161 15January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes162 New Questions Added to 2018 Point in Time SurveyFull evaluation of Coordinated Entry begins March 2018Housing Needs AssessmentData through Whole Person Care16January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes163 $966,000 HUD award17January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes164 City/County$415,000Individual donors$20,000CONTRA COSTA  HOUSING SECURITY FUNDCONTRA COSTA  HOUSING SECURITY FUNDLAUNCHING 2018Supervisor Andersen commits $10,000Livable Community Trust18January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes165 947 housed…and counting.19January 30, 2018BOS Retreat Minutes166