HomeMy WebLinkAboutMINUTES - 01262016 - Completed Min PktCALENDAR FOR THE BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
AND FOR SPECIAL DISTRICTS, AGENCIES, AND AUTHORITIES GOVERNED BY THE BOARD
BOARD CHAMBERS ROOM 107, ADMINISTRATION BUILDING, 651 PINE STREET
MARTINEZ, CALIFORNIA 94553-1229
CANDACE ANDERSEN, CHAIR, 2ND DISTRICT
MARY N. PIEPHO, VICE CHAIR, 3RD DISTRICT
JOHN GIOIA, 1ST DISTRICT
KAREN MITCHOFF, 4TH DISTRICT
FEDERAL D. GLOVER, 5TH DISTRICT
DAVID J. TWA, CLERK OF THE BOARD AND COUNTY ADMINISTRATOR, (925) 335-1900
PERSONS WHO WISH TO ADDRESS THE BOARD DURING PUBLIC COMMENT OR WITH RESPECT TO AN ITEM THAT IS ON THE AGENDA,
MAY BE LIMITED TO TWO (2) MINUTES.
A LUNCH BREAK MAY BE CALLED AT THE DISCRETION OF THE BOARD CHAIR.
The Board of Supervisors respects your time, and every attempt is made to accurately estimate when an item may be heard by the Board. All times specified for items on the Board of
Supervisors agenda are approximate. Items may be heard later than indicated depending on the business of the day. Your patience is appreciated.
ANNOTATED AGENDA & MINUTES
January 26, 2016
9:00 A.M. Convene and Call to Order
Inspirational Thought: "For last year's words belong to last year's language, and next year's words await
another voice. And to make an end is to make a beginning." ~ T.S. Eliot
Present: John Gioia, District I Supervisor; Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor; Mary N. Piepho, District III Supervisor;
Karen Mitchoff, District IV Supervisor; Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor
Staff Present:David Twa, County Administrator
Public Comment
Ralph Hoffman, resident of Walnut Creek, spoke on pedestrian safety; John Roe, SEIU 2015 IHSS,
spoke on wage increases and benefits retention for in-home care workers.
Joseph Partansky provided handouts with information on a speacial orientation session to National
Park Service for Persons with Disabilities, and how to get official records with a California Agency
information contact list (attached).
Board Operating Procedures and Communications (Chair Candace Andersen)
Chair Andersen led a discussion on Board Procedures and Communications. No vote was taken but, by consensus, it was
agreed that the regular, Tuesday meetings Board of Supervisors meetings would convene at 9:00, and adjourn to closed
session between 9:00 - 9:30 a.m., with the public agenda items to begin at 9:30 a.m. On days when there are no items for the
9:00 a.m. closed session, the Board of Supervisors meeting will convene at 9:30. The Chair expressed her preference to take
public comment at the beginning of the meeting, absent unusual circumstances. It was confirmed that the length of public
comment is at the discretion of the Chair.
Staff was asked to bring to the Board an action to adopt a resolution amending Resolution 2016/1, which appointed Board
members to serve on the committees. Board members questioned the need to appoint alternates to standing committees of the
Board of Supervisors. The discussion was that alternates could be appointed by the Chair in unusual circumstances where
a Board member was absent from four consecutive meetings. This matter will return to the Board for further discussion at a
later date.
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 1
3. CONSIDER accepting report “The Economic Outlook Focus on Contra Costa” prepared by Beacon
Economics. (Dr. Christopher Thornberg, Beacon Economics)
Speakers: Ralph Hoffman, resident of Martinez.
AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor
Mary N. Piepho, District IV Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover
-- BREAK --
4. CONSIDER accepting report on budget and key issues for FY 2015/16 and beyond. (David Twa,
County Administrator and Lisa Driscoll, County Finance Director)
AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor
Mary N. Piepho, District IV Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover
12:00 p.m. LUNCH
CLOSED SESSION AGENDA:
A. CONFERENCE WITH LABOR NEGOTIATORS
I. Agency Negotiators: David Twa and Bruce Heid.
Employee Organizations: Contra Costa County Employees’ Assn., Local No. 1; Am. Fed., State, County, & Mun.
Empl., Locals 512 and 2700; Calif. Nurses Assn.; Service Empl. Int’l Union, Local1021; District Attorney’s Investigators
Assn.; Deputy Sheriffs Assn.; United Prof. Firefighters, Local 1230; Physicians’ & Dentists’ Org. of Contra Costa; Western
Council of Engineers; United Chief Officers Assn.; Service Empl. Int’l Union United Health Care Workers West; Contra
Costa County Defenders Assn.; Probation Peace Officers Assn. of Contra Costa County; Contra Costa County Deputy
District Attorneys’ Assn.; and Prof. & Tech. Engineers, Local 21, AFL-CIO.
II. Agency Negotiators: David Twa.
Unrepresented Employees: All unrepresented employees.
There were no items to report from Closed Session.
RESUME OPEN SESSION
5. CONSIDER accepting a report from the Sheriff-Coroner, Health Services Director and County
Probation Officer on the status of Detention Mental Health services in County adult and juvenile
detention facilities and PROVIDE follow-up direction to staff. (David Twa, County Administrator)
Speakers: Ralph Hoffman; Teresa Pasquini; Lauren Rettagliata; Joseph Partansky
AYE: District I Supervisor John Gioia, District II Supervisor Candace Andersen, District III Supervisor
Mary N. Piepho, District IV Supervisor Karen Mitchoff, District V Supervisor Federal D. Glover
Wrap-up and Closing Comments (Chair Candace Andersen)
-- ADJOURN --
Today's meeting adjourned at 3:03 p.m.
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 2
GENERAL INFORMATION
The Board meets in all its capacities pursuant to Ordinance Code Section 24-2.402, including as the Housing
Authority and the Successor Agency to the Redevelopment Agency. Persons who wish to address the Board should
complete the form provided for that purpose and furnish a copy of any written statement to the Clerk.
Any disclosable public records related to an open session item on a regular meeting agenda and distributed by the
Clerk of the Board to a majority of the members of the Board of Supervisors less than 72 hours prior to that meeting
are available for public inspection at 651 Pine Street, First Floor, Room 106, Martinez, CA 94553, during normal
business hours.
All matters listed under CONSENT ITEMS are considered by the Board to be routine and will be enacted by one
motion. There will be no separate discussion of these items unless requested by a member of the Board or a member
of the public prior to the time the Board votes on the motion to adopt.
Persons who wish to speak on matters set for PUBLIC HEARINGS will be heard when the Chair calls for comments
from those persons who are in support thereof or in opposition thereto. After persons have spoken, the hearing is
closed and the matter is subject to discussion and action by the Board. Comments on matters listed on the agenda or
otherwise within the purview of the Board of Supervisors can be submitted to the office of the Clerk of the Board via
mail: Board of Supervisors, 651 Pine Street Room 106, Martinez, CA 94553; by fax: 925-335-1913.
The County will provide reasonable accommodations for persons with disabilities planning to attend Board meetings
who contact the Clerk of the Board at least 24 hours before the meeting, at (925) 335-1900; TDD (925) 335-1915.
An assistive listening device is available from the Clerk, Room 106.
Copies of recordings of all or portions of a Board meeting may be purchased from the Clerk of the Board. Please
telephone the Office of the Clerk of the Board, (925) 335-1900, to make the necessary arrangements.
Forms are available to anyone desiring to submit an inspirational thought nomination for inclusion on the
Board Agenda. Forms may be obtained at the Office of the County Administrator or Office of the Clerk of the Board,
651 Pine Street, Martinez, California.
Applications for personal subscriptions to the weekly Board Agenda may be obtained by calling the Office of the
Clerk of the Board, (925) 335-1900. The weekly agenda may also be viewed on the County’s Internet Web Page:
www.co.contra-costa.ca.us
STANDING COMMITTEES
The Airport Committee (Supervisors Karen Mitchoff and Mary N. Piepho) meets quarterly on the fourth Monday of
the month at 12:30 p.m. at Director of Airports Office, 550 Sally Ride Drive, Concord.
The Family and Human Services Committee (Supervisors Candace Andersen and
Federal D. Glover) meets on the first Monday of the month at 1:00 p.m. in Room 101, County Administration
Building, 651 Pine Street, Martinez.
The Finance Committee (Supervisors Federal D. Glover and John Gioia) meets on the second Monday of the month
at 1:30 p.m. in Room 101, County Administration Building, 651 Pine Street, Martinez.
The Hiring Outreach Oversight Committee (Supervisors John Gioia and Federal Glover) To be determined
The Internal Operations Committee (Supervisors Candace Andersen and Karen Mitchoff) meets on the second
Monday of the month at 9:00 a.m. in Room 101, County Administration Building, 651 Pine Street, Martinez.
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 3
The Legislation Committee (Supervisors Karen Mitchoff and Mary N. Piepho) meets on the first Thursday of the
month at 11:00 a.m. in Room 101, County Administration Building, 651 Pine Street, Martinez.
The Public Protection Committee (Supervisors John Gioia and Federal D. Glover) meets on the second Monday of
the month at 11:00 a.m. in Room 101, County Administration Building, 651 Pine Street, Martinez.
The Transportation, Water & Infrastructure Committee (Supervisors Candace Andersen and Mary N. Piepho)
meets on the first Thursday of the month at 1:30 p.m. in Room 101, County Administration Building, 651 Pine Street,
Martinez.
Airports Committee See above
Family & Human Services Committee See above
Finance Committee See above
Hiring Outreach Oversight Committee See above
Internal Operations Committee See above
Legislation Committee See above
Public Protection Committee See above
Transportation, Water & Infrastructure Committee See above
PERSONS WHO WISH TO ADDRESS THE BOARD DURING PUBLIC COMMENT OR
WITH RESPECT TO AN ITEM THAT IS ON THE AGENDA, MAY BE LIMITED TO TWO
(2) MINUTES
A LUNCH BREAK MAY BE CALLED AT THE DISCRETION OF THE BOARD CHAIR
AGENDA DEADLINE: Thursday, 12 noon, 12 days before the Tuesday Board meetings.
Glossary of Acronyms, Abbreviations, and other Terms (in alphabetical order):
Contra Costa County has a policy of making limited use of acronyms, abbreviations, and industry-specific language
in its Board of Supervisors meetings and written materials. Following is a list of commonly used language that may
appear in oral presentations and written materials associated with Board meetings:
AB Assembly Bill
ABAG Association of Bay Area Governments
ACA Assembly Constitutional Amendment
ADA Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990
AFSCME American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees
AICP American Institute of Certified Planners
AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome
ALUC Airport Land Use Commission
AOD Alcohol and Other Drugs
ARRA American Recovery & Reinvestment Act of 2009
BAAQMD Bay Area Air Quality Management District
BART Bay Area Rapid Transit District
BayRICS Bay Area Regional Interoperable Communications System
BCDC Bay Conservation & Development Commission
BGO Better Government Ordinance
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 4
BOS Board of Supervisors
CALTRANS California Department of Transportation
CalWIN California Works Information Network
CalWORKS California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids
CAER Community Awareness Emergency Response
CAO County Administrative Officer or Office
CCCPFD (ConFire) Contra Costa County Fire Protection District
CCHP Contra Costa Health Plan
CCTA Contra Costa Transportation Authority
CCRMC Contra Costa Regional Medical Center
CCWD Contra Costa Water District
CDBG Community Development Block Grant
CFDA Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance
CEQA California Environmental Quality Act
CIO Chief Information Officer
COLA Cost of living adjustment
ConFire (CCCFPD) Contra Costa County Fire Protection District
CPA Certified Public Accountant
CPI Consumer Price Index
CSA County Service Area
CSAC California State Association of Counties
CTC California Transportation Commission
dba doing business as
DSRIP Delivery System Reform Incentive Program
EBMUD East Bay Municipal Utility District
ECCFPD East Contra Costa Fire Protection District
EIR Environmental Impact Report
EIS Environmental Impact Statement
EMCC Emergency Medical Care Committee
EMS Emergency Medical Services
EPSDT Early State Periodic Screening, Diagnosis and Treatment Program (Mental Health)
et al. et alii (and others)
FAA Federal Aviation Administration
FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency
F&HS Family and Human Services Committee
First 5 First Five Children and Families Commission (Proposition 10)
FTE Full Time Equivalent
FY Fiscal Year
GHAD Geologic Hazard Abatement District
GIS Geographic Information System
HCD (State Dept of) Housing & Community Development
HHS (State Dept of ) Health and Human Services
HIPAA Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act
HIV Human Immunodeficiency Syndrome
HOV High Occupancy Vehicle
HR Human Resources
HUD United States Department of Housing and Urban Development
IHSS In-Home Supportive Services
Inc. Incorporated
IOC Internal Operations Committee
ISO Industrial Safety Ordinance
JPA Joint (exercise of) Powers Authority or Agreement
Lamorinda Lafayette-Moraga-Orinda Area
LAFCo Local Agency Formation Commission
LLC Limited Liability Company
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 5
LLP Limited Liability Partnership
Local 1 Public Employees Union Local 1
LVN Licensed Vocational Nurse
MAC Municipal Advisory Council
MBE Minority Business Enterprise
M.D. Medical Doctor
M.F.T. Marriage and Family Therapist
MIS Management Information System
MOE Maintenance of Effort
MOU Memorandum of Understanding
MTC Metropolitan Transportation Commission
NACo National Association of Counties
NEPA National Environmental Policy Act
OB-GYN Obstetrics and Gynecology
O.D. Doctor of Optometry
OES-EOC Office of Emergency Services-Emergency Operations Center
OPEB Other Post Employment Benefits
OSHA Occupational Safety and Health Administration
PARS Public Agencies Retirement Services
PEPRA Public Employees Pension Reform Act
Psy.D. Doctor of Psychology
RDA Redevelopment Agency
RFI Request For Information
RFP Request For Proposal
RFQ Request For Qualifications
RN Registered Nurse
SB Senate Bill
SBE Small Business Enterprise
SEIU Service Employees International Union
SUASI Super Urban Area Security Initiative
SWAT Southwest Area Transportation Committee
TRANSPAC Transportation Partnership & Cooperation (Central)
TRANSPLAN Transportation Planning Committee (East County)
TRE or TTE Trustee
TWIC Transportation, Water and Infrastructure Committee
UASI Urban Area Security Initiative
VA Department of Veterans Affairs
vs. versus (against)
WAN Wide Area Network
WBE Women Business Enterprise
WCCTAC West Contra Costa Transportation Advisory Committee
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 6
RECOMMENDATION(S):
ACCEPT report ‘The Economic Outlook Focus on Contra Costa'
FISCAL IMPACT:
This report is for informational purposes and has no specific fiscal impact.
BACKGROUND:
Attached is Beacon Economics report entitled "Economic Outlook Focus on Contra Costa
County".
APPROVE OTHER
RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD
COMMITTEE
Action of Board On: 01/26/2016 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER
Clerks Notes:
VOTE OF SUPERVISORS
AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor
Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor
Mary N. Piepho, District III Supervisor
Karen Mitchoff, District IV Supervisor
Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor
Contact: Lisa Driscoll, County Finance
Director (925) 335-1023
I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the
minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown.
ATTESTED: January 26, 2016
David J. Twa, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors
By: June McHuen, Deputy
cc: Robert Campbell, County Auditor-Controller
3.
To:Board of Supervisors
From:David Twa, County Administrator
Date:January 26, 2016
Contra
Costa
County
Subject:The Economic Outlook Focus on Contra Costa
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 7
CLERK'S ADDENDUM
Speakers: Ralph Hoffman, resident of Martinez.
ATTACHMENTS
The Economic Outlook Focus on Contra Costa
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 8
Analysis. Answers.
Analysis. Answers
Beacon Economics, LLC
The Economic Outlook
Focus on Contra Costa
January 2016
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 9
Analysis. Answers.
Wordof the Day
Miserabilism
Morrissey Louis CK Wall Street
Trying really hard to convince everyone that
things are really bad when, in reality, it isn’t.
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 10
Analysis. Answers.
The Right Answer
•US Economy Still Moving Along
–2015: Better than it looked
–Labor markets have turned a corner
–Forget the market turmoil: no bubble
–Housing still chugging along
–Credit expanding on many levels
–Commodity prices are down
–California still chugging along
•Issues? Sure…
–Still in slow growth mode
–State and Local Budgets still stressed
–Global economy—particularly Asia
–Bad Financial Regulations
–Pensions / Entitlements
–Growing Inequality / Political Gridlock
3
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 11
Analysis. Answers.
2015: Better that it looks
4
2015 Beacon
2013 2014 2015 I II III IV
GDP 2.45 2.53 2.09 0.60 3.90 2.10
1.80
Final Demand 1.64 3.11 2.67 1.65 3.70 2.91
2.44
Personal consumption 1.56 2.16 1.82 1.19 2.42 2.05
1.62
Durable goods 0.34 0.53 0.42 0.14 0.57 0.47
0.49
Nondurable goods 0.41 0.36 0.45 0.10 0.62 0.58
0.50
Services 0.82 1.27 0.95 0.94 1.23 1.00
0.64
Gross investment 1.15 0.80 0.55 1.39 0.85 -0.05
0.01
Structures 0.18 0.14 -0.08 -0.22 0.18 -0.21
-0.07
Equipment 0.23 0.30 0.22 0.14 0.03 0.55
0.16
IPP 0.13 0.25 0.19 0.29 0.33 -0.03
0.17
Residential 0.11 0.16 0.27 0.32 0.30 0.24
0.21
Change inventories 0.52 -0.05 -0.02 0.87 0.02 -0.59
-0.35
Net exports 0.29 -0.53 -0.56 -1.92 0.18 -0.22
-0.28
Exports 0.68 0.32 -010 -0.81 0.64 0.11
-0.33
Imports -0.39 -0.85 -0.46 -1.12 -0.46 -0.33
0.05
Government -0.55 0.07 0.29 -0.01 0.46 0.29
0.43
Federal -0.53 -0.05 0.07 0.08 0.00 0.01
0.22
State and local -0.02 0.12 0.22 -0.09 0.46 0.29
0.21
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 12
Analysis. Answers.
Consumer Spending
5
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%Jan-12Jun-12Nov-12Apr-13Sep-13Feb-14Jul-14Dec-14May-15Oct-15Real Consumer Spending
Growth
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%Jan-11Jun-11Nov-11Apr-12Sep-12Feb-13Jul-13Dec-13May-14Oct-14Mar-15Aug-15Consumer Spending Y-o-Y Smoothed
Growth: Retail Sales and Goods
Nominal Retail (Census)Real Goods (BEA)
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 13
Analysis. Answers.
Services and the Weather
6
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13Jul-13Jan-14Jul-14Jan-15Jul-15Y-o-Y Growth Real Services
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 14
Analysis. Answers.
Consumer Spending
7
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%Feb-13May-13Aug-13Nov-13Feb-14May-14Aug-14Nov-14Feb-15May-15Aug-15Household Savings Rate % of DPI
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
19951997199920012003200520072009201120132015Auto and Light Truck Sales
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 15
Analysis. Answers.
Labor Markets
8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Jan-05Dec-05Nov-06Oct-07Sep-08Aug-09Jul-10Jun-11May-12Apr-13Mar-14Feb-15Unemployment Rate(s)
Headline U-6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-11Jun-11Nov-11Apr-12Sep-12Feb-13Jul-13Dec-13May-14Oct-14Mar-15Aug-15Change in Payrolls (3 Month MA)
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 16
Analysis. Answers.
Other Labor Statistics
9
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Y-o-Y Growth Average Weekly
Earnings
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Job Opening Rate
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 17
Analysis. Answers.
GrowingInequality
10
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
US Holdings of Wealth
Top 10%Everyone Else
Top 1% own 40% to 50% of all wealth in
the world
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
Index (1 = Perfect Inequality)Gini Index (Inequality)
Based on Market Income Based on Before-Tax Income
Based on After-Tax Income After Taxes and Transfers
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 18
Analysis. Answers.
Consumer Credit
11
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
Jan-12May-12Sep-12Jan-13May-13Sep-13Jan-14May-14Sep-14Jan-15May-15Sep-15Change Consumer Credit ($Bil, 3
Month MA)
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
12.5
13.0
06:Q106:Q407:Q308:Q209:Q109:Q410:Q311:Q212:Q112:Q413:Q314:Q215:Q1Outstanding Consumer Debt
$Trillions
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 19
Analysis. Answers.
Consumer Credit
12
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
1980Q11982Q21984Q31986Q41989Q11991Q21993Q31995Q41998Q12000Q22002Q32004Q42007Q12009Q22011Q32013Q4Debt Servicing as Share DPI
FOB DSR
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
03:Q103:Q404:Q305:Q206:Q106:Q407:Q308:Q209:Q109:Q410:Q311:Q212:Q112:Q413:Q314:Q215:Q1Share Loans 90 Days Late by Type
MORTGAGE HELOC
AUTO CC
STUDENT LOAN
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 20
Analysis. Answers.
Degrees Among 21-27 with Bachelor
13
Diploma’s Awarded
PSYCHOLOGY 289,968
BUSINESS MANAGEMENT AND A 217,369
BIOLOGY 178,560
GENERAL BUSINESS 171,875
NURSING 170,595
COMMUNICATIONS 162,915
MARKETING AND MARKETING R 160,309
ACCOUNTING 146,322
ENGLISH LANGUAGE AND LITE 132,367
CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND FIRE 123,509
POLITICAL SCIENCE AND GOV 123,106
FINANCE 123,068
Annual Income
PETROLEUM ENGINEERING 55,103
COMPUTER ENGINEERING 50,542
CHEMICAL ENGINEERING 48,668
COMPUTER SCIENCE 46,060
AEROSPACE ENGINEERING 44,651
INDUSTRIAL AND ORGANIZATI 43,804
MECHANICAL ENGINEERING 43,495
ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING 42,238
MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTER 41,640
PHARMACY PHARMACEUTICAL S 40,933
OPERATIONS LOGISTICS AND 40,840
FINANCE 40,236
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 21
Analysis. Answers.
Production
14
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
Jan-12May-12Sep-12Jan-13May-13Sep-13Jan-14May-14Sep-14Jan-15May-15Sep-15ISM Indexes to November
Manufacturing Other
95
97
99
101
103
105
107
109
Jan-11Jun-11Nov-11Apr-12Sep-12Feb-13Jul-13Dec-13May-14Oct-14Mar-15Aug-15Industrial Production to November
Total Manufacturing
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 22
Analysis. Answers.
Oil Activity
15
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Jan-05Feb-06Mar-07Apr-08May-09Jun-10Jul-11Aug-12Sep-13Oct-14Oil Production Per Day (000s
Barrels)
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-08Sep-08May-09Jan-10Sep-10May-11Jan-12Sep-12May-13Jan-14Sep-14May-15Industrial Production
Oil Gas Drilling
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 23
Analysis. Answers.
Mining and Manufacturing: IP
16
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-76Nov-77Sep-79Jul-81May-83Mar-85Jan-87Nov-88Sep-90Jul-92May-94Mar-96Jan-98Nov-99Sep-01Jul-03May-05Mar-07Jan-09Nov-10Sep-12Jul-14Manufacturing Mining
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 24
Analysis. Answers.
Trade
17
-60000
-50000
-40000
-30000
-20000
-10000
0
2004Q12004Q32005Q12005Q32006Q12006Q32007Q12007Q32008Q12008Q32009Q12009Q32010Q12010Q32011Q12011Q32012Q12012Q32013Q12013Q32014Q12014Q32015Q12015Q3‘Real’ Trade Deficit: Est. through Q4
Exports Imports Bal.
Total -104.4 -87.3 -17.1
Canada -28.8 -45.8 17
Netherlands -2.8 -3.9 1.1
Belgium -0.6 -1.2 0.6
India 0.3 -0.1 0.4
Germany 0.2 0.3 -0.1
Taiwan -0.5 0.1 -0.6
Japan -3.5 -2.7 -0.8
France -1.1 0.6 -1.7
UK 2.8 4.5 -1.7
Italy -0.9 1.7 -2.6
Korea, South -0.6 2.8 -3.4
Mexico -3.6 1.3 -4.9
Brazil -10 -2.3 -7.7
China -5.7 17.8 -23.5
Change in Nominal Goods Trade
2014 to 2015
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 25
Analysis. Answers.
China: Slowed, not stopped
18
38
42
46
50
54
58
62
66
38
42
46
50
54
58
62
66
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Chinese PMIs
NBS Indices
Services: Dec @ 54.4
Manufacturing: Dec @ 49.7
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 26
Analysis. Answers.
Europe
19
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%Dec-94Nov-96Nov-98Nov-00Nov-02Nov-04Nov-06Nov-08Nov-10EU Industrial Production
Growth
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12Jan-14EU Unemployment Rate
to October
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Y-o-Y Growth Bank Loans to
Oct (Non-Gov or MFI)
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 27
Analysis. Answers.
Housing Markets
20
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Existing Home Sales to Oct
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%Jan-05Dec-05Nov-06Oct-07Sep-08Aug-09Jul-10Jun-11May-12Apr-13Mar-14Feb-15Median Price Growth (Y-o-Y
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 28
Analysis. Answers.
Case-Shiller Regional Price Trends
21
13-14 14-15 Diff 13-14 14-15 Diff
OR-Portland 6.2% 11.0%4.8%AZ-Phoenix 2.2%5.7%3.5%
CA-San Francisco 9.5% 10.9%1.5%Composite-20 4.4%5.6%1.1%
CO-Denver 7.1%10.9%3.7%MI-Detroit 3.6%5.3%1.6%
TX-Dallas 7.7%9.3%1.6%MA-Boston 4.3%5.2%0.9%
WA-Seattle 6.2%8.8%2.6%National-US 4.6%5.2%0.5%
FL-Miami 9.5%8.0%-1.5%NC-Charlotte 2.7%4.7%2.0%
FL-Tampa 6.1%6.4%0.3%MN-Minneapolis 2.1% 4.0%2.0%
CA-San Diego 4.7%6.3%1.6%NY-New York 1.8%3.1%1.3%
CA-Los Angeles 4.9%6.1%1.3%OH-Cleveland 0.8%2.2%1.5%
GA-Atlanta 4.4%6.1%1.6%DC-Washington 2.0%1.7%-0.3%
NV-Las Vegas 7.8%5.8%-2.1%IL-Chicago 1.8%1.4%-0.4%
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 29
Analysis. Answers.
Affordability vs Access
22
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%1977198119851989199319972001200520092013Affordability
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
03:Q103:Q404:Q305:Q206:Q106:Q407:Q308:Q209:Q109:Q410:Q311:Q212:Q112:Q413:Q314:Q215:Q1Originations (Bil) by Credit Score to Q3
<620 620-659 660-719 720-779 780+
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 30
Analysis. Answers.
Construction
23
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15Housing Starts
Single Family 5 Units Plus
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Jan-15New Home Sales to Oct
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 31
Analysis. Answers.
ImprovedOutlook
24
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
May-02May-03May-04May-05May-06May-07May-08May-09May-10May-11May-12May-13May-14May-15Change in Households (2 year Smoothed)
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%Q1-97Q2-98Q3-99Q4-00Q1-02Q2-03Q3-04Q4-05Q1-07Q2-08Q3-09Q4-10Q1-12Q2-13Q3-14Year Round Vacant as % of Housing
Stock to Q3 (Census HVS)
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 32
Analysis. Answers.
What inning is it?
25
There is no Bubble… (at
least not yet) Why?
1. Asset prices are being
driven by fundamentals,
not speculation
2. The global savings glut
is driving interest rates,
not Fed policy
3. Leverage is not a factor
4. The real economy is in
balance1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
29Oct201326Dec201322Feb201421Apr201418Jun201415Aug201412Oct20149Dec20145Feb20154Apr20151Jun201529Jul201525Sep201522Nov2015S&P 500 Index
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 33
Analysis. Answers.
Equity Fundamentals
26
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Jan-95Jan-97Jan-99Jan-01Jan-03Jan-05Jan-07Jan-09Jan-11Jan-13Jan-15Forward Looking P/E Ratio
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%Jan-95Jan-97Jan-99Jan-01Jan-03Jan-05Jan-07Jan-09Jan-11Jan-13Jan-15Equity Earnings Spread
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 34
Analysis. Answers.
What about Tech?
27
Tech P/Es
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Q1-96Q2-97Q3-98Q4-99Q1-01Q2-02Q3-03Q4-04Q1-06Q2-07Q3-08Q4-09Q1-11Q2-12Q3-13Q4-14January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 35
Analysis. Answers.
Risk Factors
28
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
140.0%1985Q11986Q31988Q11989Q31991Q11992Q31994Q11995Q31997Q11998Q32000Q12001Q32003Q12004Q32006Q12007Q32009Q12010Q32012Q12013Q32015Q1Debt Outstanding as % GDP to Q3
Household Business Finance Foreign
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 36
Analysis. Answers.
When How Fast
29
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%Jan-98Jan-00Jan-02Jan-04Jan-06Jan-08Jan-10Jan-12Jan-14PCE Inflation (Y-o-Y) to Oct
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%Jan-70Jan-75Jan-80Jan-85Jan-90Jan-95Jan-00Jan-05Jan-10Jan-15M2 Growth (3 Year)
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 37
Analysis. Answers.
Limited Space to Turn
30
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan-85Jan-87Jan-89Jan-91Jan-93Jan-95Jan-97Jan-99Jan-01Jan-03Jan-05Jan-07Jan-09Jan-11Jan-13Jan-15Interest Rates
FFR 10 Yr Treasury
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Jan-85Jan-88Jan-91Jan-94Jan-97Jan-00Jan-03Jan-06Jan-09Jan-12Jan-15Spread
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 38
Analysis. Answers.
RegionalGrowth
31
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 39
Analysis. Answers.
2015 Job Growth (Ch Gr from 14)
32
Idaho 4.1%2.0%
Utah 3.6%0.8%
Florida 3.0%-0.3%
Washington 2.8%-0.1%
Oregon 2.7%-0.3%
South Carolina 2.6%0.1%
California 2.6%-0.3%
South Dakota 2.6%2.0%
Nevada 2.5%-0.9%
Arizona 2.5%0.7%
Massachusetts 2.2%0.6%
Georgia 2.2%-1.1%
North Carolina 2.2%-0.1%
Hawaii 2.1%1.8%
Maryland 2.0%1.0%
Indiana 1.9%0.7%
N York 1.9%0.8%
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
Jan-95Oct-96Jul-98Apr-00Jan-02Oct-03Jul-05Apr-07Jan-09Oct-10Jul-12Apr-14Index Payroll Employment
California Balance US
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 40
Analysis. Answers.
Income tax drivingthe show
33
Sales Tax
Rate Decline
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1995-96 = 100Index
PIT CORP SALES
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
$BillionsCA Revenues and Expenditures
GF Revenues GF Expenditures
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 41
Analysis. Answers.
RegionalNonfarm Employment
34
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Nov-05Jul-06Mar-07Nov-07Jul-08Mar-09Nov-09Jul-10Mar-11Nov-11Jul-12Mar-13Nov-13Jul-14Mar-15Nov-15Indexed Employment (May-05 = 100, SA)Total Nonfarm Employment
San Francisco MD San Jose MSA
Oakland MD California
Regional Nonfarm Employment
Metropolitan Area Nov-15
(000s)Growth
San Jose 1,075 5.1
San Francisco (MD)1,070 4.1
San Rafael (MD)117 3.9
Inland Empire 1,349 3.5
Vallejo 134 3.5
San Diego 1,404 2.7
California 16,258 2.6
Santa Rosa 198 2.6
Los Angeles (MD)4,343 1.7
East Bay (MD)1,096 1.7
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 42
Analysis. Answers.
RegionalTrends
35
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Nov-05Jun-06Jan-07Aug-07Mar-08Oct-08May-09Dec-09Jul-10Feb-11Sep-11Apr-12Nov-12Jun-13Jan-14Aug-14Mar-15Oct-15Indexed Employment (May-05 = 100, SA)Unemployment Rate
San Francisco MD San Jose MSA
Oakland MD California
East Bay Employment by Industry
Industry Nov-15
(000s)Change
Total Nonfarm 1,096 1.7
Professional/Business 188 2.6
Education/Health 178 0.7
Government 169 0.8
Retail Trade 113 2.1
Leisure and Hospitality 110 5.4
Manufacturing 84 0.7
Construction 64 4.7
Financial Activities 47 -4.1
Wholesale Trade 46 -1.3
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 43
Analysis. Answers.
ContraCosta Employment
36
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%Jan-00Sep-01May-03Jan-05Sep-06May-08Jan-10Sep-11May-13Jan-15CC Unemployment Rate 2000 2008 2014
Civilian Labor Force 501,300 523,700 544,000
Civilian Employment 483,500 491,100 510,500
Total, All Industries 339,000 344,000 344,700
Total Nonfarm 336,800 343,300 343,900
Durable Goods 10,700 8,400 6,700
Nondurable Goods 12,700 12,400 8,800
Wholesale Trade 9,300 8,700 9,100
Retail Trade 42,800 43,600 41,700
Logistics 8,900 8,900 9,500
Information 17,500 11,800 8,400
Financial Activities 26,400 26,600 25,000
Professional 54,400 49,300 53,900
Educational & Health 40,000 50,000 60,800
Leisure & Hospitality 25,900 32,800 36,500
Other Services 11,200 12,400 12,500
Government 48,200 52,600 49,100
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 44
Analysis. Answers.
Employment
37
East Bay County 2-year Employment Growth (Q2-13 to Q2-15)
Industry Contra Costa Alameda
New Jobs Growth (%) New Jobs Growth (%)
Total All Industries 12,099 4.2 41,920 7.3
Education/Health 4,757 8.2 2,538 2.3
Trade, Transport 4,130 7.3 7,959 6.4
Leisure and Hospitality 2,618 7.3 5,634 9.0
Financial Activities 786 3.1 -1,032 -4.3
Construction 640 3.1 4,599 13.1
Other Services 554 4.8 561 2.4
Government -95 -0.7 323 1.4
Information -326 -3.8 874 6.8
Manufacturing -601 -3.8 7,943 12.8
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 45
Analysis. Answers.
East BaySpending
38
East Bay Sales Tax Receipts by
Category
Category 2015 YTD Change (%)
Autos/Transportation 57,349,828 12.1
Building/Construction 27,845,888 11.2
Business/Industry 55,571,033 6.5
Food/Drugs 18,097,583 4.3
Fuel/Service Stations 27,158,081 -16.8
General Consumer 66,020,129 3.7
Restaurants/Hotels 36,176,024 9.2
Total 334,689,370 5.3
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Jan-05Aug-05Mar-06Oct-06May-07Dec-07Jul-08Feb-09Sep-09Apr-10Nov-10Jun-11Jan-12Aug-12Mar-13Oct-13Room Rates ($)Occupancy (%)East Bay Hotels
Hotel Occupancy Avg. Daily Rates
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 46
Analysis. Answers.
Spending
39
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Q3-05Q2-06Q1-07Q4-07Q3-08Q2-09Q1-10Q4-10Q3-11Q2-12Q1-13Q4-13Q3-14Q2-15$ MillionsTaxable Sales
Alameda County Contra Costa County
Regional Taxable
Sales
City Q3-15 ($
000s)
Y-o-Y
Growth
Alameda 248,428 28.9
Brentwood 161,559 9.3
Concord 721,999 8.9
Fremont 953,253 8.6
Berkeley 418,111 4.4
Oakland 1,146,037 3.2
Antioch 254,743 -0.3
Hayward 698,792 -0.4
Richmond 330,884 -2.4
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 47
Analysis. Answers.
California Exports
40
Share Growth 2009-2015 Est
TOTAL ALL INDUSTRIES
Computer And Electronic Products 19.8%
Agricultural Products 12.6%
Machinery, Except Electrical 10.6%
Transportation Equipment 10.3%
Miscellaneous Manufactured 10.3%
Electrical Equipment 7.3%
Chemicals 6.6%
Used Or Second-Hand Merchandise 5.7%
Food And Kindred Products 4.9%
Petroleum And Coal Products 4.7%
Primary Metal Manufacturing 2.7%
Fabricated Metal Products, Nesoi 1.8%
Beverages And Tobacco Products 1.6%
Plastics And Rubber Products 1.5%
Apparel And Accessories 1.3%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
BillionsCA Exports
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 48
Analysis. Answers.
Ag and the Drought
41
330,000
340,000
350,000
360,000
370,000
380,000
390,000
400,000
410,000
420,000
430,000
Jan-01Mar-02May-03Jul-04Sep-05Nov-06Jan-08Mar-09May-10Jul-11Sep-12Nov-13Jan-15California Farm Employment
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
Farm Earnings
Farm Earnings Share State Income
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 49
Analysis. Answers.
Looking Closer
42
Insurable Crops 2006 2014
6,664,689 6,055,791
Forage Production 1,060,000 930,000
Almonds 580,000 860,000
Wheat 530,000 585,000
Grapes (Wine)445,147 570,000
Rice 526,000 495,000
Corn 540,000 430,000
Cotton 600,000 315,000
Walnuts 215,000 290,000
Tomatoes 306,465 288,000
Citrus – 8 types 267,913 270,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
CA Exports of Alfalfa (Millions KG)
Alfalfa Rice Nuts
$0.27 $0.79 $7.07
$ / Kg
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 50
Analysis. Answers.43
Homes and Workers
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%Jan-94Jun-96Nov-98Apr-01Sep-03Feb-06Jul-08Nov-10Apr-13Workforce Trends
Payroll Labor Force
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000 Jan-02Apr-03Jul-04Oct-05Jan-07Apr-08Jul-09Oct-10Jan-12Apr-13Jul-14Median Home Prices
Southern California Bay Area US
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 51
Analysis. Answers.
ResidentialReal Estate
44
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Q3-05Q2-06Q1-07Q4-07Q3-08Q2-09Q1-10Q4-10Q3-11Q2-12Q1-13Q4-13Q3-14Q2-15Median Prices ($ , SA)Existing Home Prices
San Francisco MD San Jose MSA
Oakland MD California
Regional Home Prices
Metropolitan Area Q3-15
Y-o-Y
Growth
Napa 567,568 15.2
San Jose 876,273 14.2
San Francisco (MD) 1,080,301 11.7
Inland Empire 289,971 8.3
Santa Rosa 499,727 6.4
Los Angeles (MD)506,989 5.7
San Diego 506,817 5.2
Vallejo 320,815 5.0
Oakland (MD)568,189 4.4
California 395,262 3.9
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 52
Analysis. Answers.
ResidentialReal Estate
45
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13Jul-13Jan-14Jul-14Jan-15Months Supply of Homes
San Francisco County Alameda County
Santa Clara County Contra Costa County
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Q3-88Q1-90Q3-91Q1-93Q3-94Q1-96Q3-97Q1-99Q3-00Q1-02Q3-03Q1-05Q3-06Q1-08Q3-09Q1-11Q3-12Q1-14Q3-15Inflation Adjusted Annual Cost
San Francisco MD San Jose MSA
Oakland MD California
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 53
Analysis. Answers.
Bubble? No…
46
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
Total Housing Costs (% of Med. HH. Income)California Housing Affordability% Over Crowded % Vacant
Hawaii 8.6% Utah 5.1%
California 8.2%Minnesota 5.2%
Alaska 6.5%California 5.3%
New York 5.0% Vermont 5.4%
Texas 4.8% Colorado 5.5%
Arizona 4.5% Massachusetts 5.6%
Nevada 4.2% New Hampshire 5.6%
New Mexico 3.6% Wisconsin 5.8%
District of Columbia 3.3% Oregon 6.0%
Utah 3.3% Washington 6.4%
Oregon 3.3% Idaho 6.4%
Washington 3.1% Delaware 6.9%
Florida 3.0% Maine 7.0%
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 54
Analysis. Answers.
Paceof Construction
47
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Jan-95Jul-96Jan-98Jul-99Jan-01Jul-02Jan-04Jul-05Jan-07Jul-08Jan-10Jul-11Jan-13Jul-14California Permits
Single-Family Multi-Family
California 4.1 Tulare 4.0
Ventura 6.8 Los Angeles 4.0
Contra Costa 6.6 Fresno 4.0
Sonoma 6.1 San Mateo 3.4
Alameda 5.9 Kern 3.0
Santa Barbara 5.3 Santa Clara 3.0
San Bernardino 5.0 Orange 2.8
Solano 4.6 Placer 2.1
Riverside 4.5 San Francisco 2.1
San Diego 4.2 Sacramento 0.7
New Pop / Permits
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 55
Analysis. Answers.
ResidentialPermits
48
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500 Jan-05Mar-06May-07Jul-08Sep-09Nov-10Jan-12Mar-13May-14Jul-15Single Family Permits
ALAMEDA CONTRA COSTA California
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450 Jan-05Dec-05Nov-06Oct-07Sep-08Aug-09Jul-10Jun-11May-12Apr-13Mar-14Feb-15Multi Family Permits
ALAMEDA CONTRA COSTA California
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 56
Analysis. Answers.
Population
49
500,000
700,000
900,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
1,500,000
1,700,000 197019741978198219861990199419982002200620102014East Bay Population
Alameda County Contra Costa County
2015 Gr Ch Housing
Contra Costa 1,102,871 1.3 14,337 5,735
Brentwood 56,493 3.0 1,695 678
Orinda 18,612 2.8 521 208
Lafayette 25,154 1.9 478 191
Oakley 38,789 1.7 659 264
Pittsburg 67,628 1.7 1,150 460
Antioch 108,298 1.5 1,624 650
San Ramon 78,561 1.5 1,178 471
Martinez 37,384 1.3 486 194
Danville 43,691 1.1 481 192
Balance 168,323 1.0 1,683 673
Concord 126,069 0.9 1,135 454
Richmond 107,346 0.9 966 386
San Pablo 29,730 0.8 238 95
Walnut Creek 66,868 0.8 535 214
Clayton 11,288 0.7 79 32
El Cerrito 24,288 0.7 170 68
Hercules 24,775 0.7 173 69
Pinole 18,946 0.7 133 53
Pleasant Hill 34,162 0.7 239 96
Moraga 16,466 0.6 99 40
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 57
Analysis. Answers.
Construction
50
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
Q3-90Q1-91Q3-91Q1-92Q3-92Q1-93Q3-93Q1-94Q3-94Q1-95Q3-95Q1-96Q3-96Q1-97Q3-97Q1-98Q3-98Q1-99Q3-99Q1-00Q3-00PermitValueNonresidential Permitting
Alameda County Contra Costa County
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 58
Analysis. Answers.
Forecast
51
East Bay 3-Year Forecast
Indicator 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total Population 2,716,220 2,748,845 2,780,712 2811097
Pop. Growth (%)1.18 1.20 1.16 1.09
Unemployment Rate 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3
Unemp. Rate Change (%)-20.7 -6.0 -1.7 -1.4
Total Nonfarm Employment 1,087.1 1,109.2 1,131.6 1,155.6
Employment Growth (%)2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1
Median Home Price 570,365 607,174 661,626 699,839
Home Price Growth (%)6.5 6.5 9.0 5.8
Home Sales 26,991 28,937 30,171 30,933
Home Sales Growth (%)11.6 7.2 4.3 2.5
Nonresidential Permit Values ($ Millions)1,575.5 1,614.0 1,685.2 1,767.5
Nonres. Permit Growth (%)14.2 2.4 4.4 4.9
Single-Family Building Permits (000s)3.2 4.0 5.0 5.5
Multi-Family Building Permits (000s)4.2 4.6 4.8 4.7
Taxable Sales ($ Millions)45,908 48,603 50,678 53,075
Tax. Sales Growth (%)5.8 5.9 4.3 4.7
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 59
Analysis. Answers.
In Summary
What not to worry about.
•The US Dollar
•Student Debt
•Asset Bubbles
•Drought
•Consumer Spending
•Labor Markets
•California Business
•Taxes
•California Tax Levels
•Politics
What to worry about.
•China
•Educational Choices
•Bad financial regulation
•Water Policy
•Savings Rates
•Growing Inequality
•California Housing
•Lack of public investment
•California Tax Structure
•A lack of engagement
52
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 60
Analysis. Answers.53
Economic & Revenue Forecasting
Regional Intelligence Reports
Business & Market Analysis
Real Estate Market Analysis
Ports & Infrastructure Analysis
Economic Impact Analysis
Public Policy Analysis
To view or download this presentation
or for further information, visit:
www.BeaconEcon.com
Contact Christopher Thornberg
Chris@BeaconEcon.com
310-571-3399
Our Services
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 61
RECOMMENDATION(S):
ACCEPT report on Budget and Key Issues for FY 2015/16 and
beyond.
FISCAL IMPACT:
No fiscal impact. This is an informational report only.
BACKGROUND:
Attached is the report on Budget and Key Issues.
APPROVE OTHER
RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY ADMINISTRATOR RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD
COMMITTEE
Action of Board On: 01/26/2016 APPROVED AS RECOMMENDED OTHER
Clerks Notes:
VOTE OF SUPERVISORS
AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor
Candace Andersen, District II Supervisor
Mary N. Piepho, District III Supervisor
Karen Mitchoff, District IV Supervisor
Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor
Contact: Lisa Driscoll, County Finance
Director (925) 335-1023
I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the
minutes of the Board of Supervisors on the date shown.
ATTESTED: January 26, 2016
David J. Twa, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors
By: June McHuen, Deputy
cc: Robert Campbell, County Auditor-Controller
4.
To:Board of Supervisors
From:David Twa, County Administrator
Date:January 26, 2016
Contra
Costa
County
Subject:Board of Supervisors Annual Retreat Budget and Key Issues for FY 2015/16 and Beyond
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 62
ATTACHMENTS
2016 Budget and Key
Issues
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 63
BUDGET ANDKEYISSUESJanuary 26, 20161January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes64
FY 2016-2017 TOPICSBudget/LaborSuccession PlanningInfrastructure ProjectsBudget Hearing Format2January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes65
FAMILIARBUDGETDRIVERS ANDCHALLENGESFOR2015/16 ANDBEYONDRecognize sacrifice by Employees that were needed to address long term structural issues and to insure delivery of essential services to the public and to achieve financial stabilityLabor negotiationsBuild ReservesFund Infrastructure Needs (Repair & Maintenance)Federal Budget Adequately Fund Public Safety Departments and Public Safety RealignmentReduce hospital dependency on General Fund 3January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes66
4BUDGETFY 2015-16 ANDBEYONDJanuary 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes67
Over the three year period between 2009/10 and 2011/12 property taxes declined by 11.08% . Over the last four years 2012/13 to 2015/16 the increase was 20.93%. This means the total net increase over the past seven years averaged only 1.4%Actual Contra Costa County experience:•2009/10 (7.19% decline)•2010/11 (3.38 decline)•2011/12 (0.49% decline)•2012/13 0.86% increase•2013/14 3.45% increase•2014/15 9.09% increase•2015/16 7.53% increase•2016/17 Projected to increase 7.0%CONTRACOSTACOUNTY5January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes68
FY 2015/16 MID-YEARPRELIMINARYSTATS6Mid-Year 15-16 Mid-Year 14-15 Mid-Year 13-14ALL FUNDS Budget Actual Percent Percent PercentExpenditures 3,209,282,914$ 1,308,195,498$ 40.8% 43.5% 43.6%Revenues 3,030,170,772$ 1,335,551,247$ 44.1% 44.0% 38.1%GENERAL FUND Budget Actual Percent Percent PercentExpenditures 1,504,945,900$ 626,669,612$ 41.6% 43.7% 43.0%Revenues 1,425,274,836$ 544,076,360$ 38.2% 37.1% 34.4%Wages & Benefits 788,422,357363,056,616 46.0% 45.9% 44.8%Services & Supplies 496,693,586 191,145,024 38.5% 41.3% 40.9%Other Charges 235,987,430 109,395,751 46.4% 51.0% 49.1%Fixed Assets 65,417,199 5,578,495 8.5% 15.1% 7.3%Inter-departmental Charges(88,402,902) (42,506,274)48.1% 53.2% 50.1%Contingencies 6,828,230 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Total Expenses1,504,945,900$ 626,669,612$ 41.6% 43.7% 43.0%Taxes 341,240,000$ 217,200,887$ 63.7% 65.5% 63.4%Licenses, Permits, Franchises 11,476,050 3,211,65128.0% 27.0% 22.9%Fines, Forfeitures, Penalties 26,422,960 2,062,9757.8% 7.0% 11.8%Use of Money & Property 11,300,770 1,158,972 10.3% 59.9% 54.0%Federal/State Assistance 551,535,886 155,988,059 28.3% 29.3% 22.7%Charges for Current Services217,491,580 88,916,696 40.9% 31.6% 0.8%Other Revenue 265,807,59075,537,120 28.4% 26.7% 30.8%Total Revenues1,425,274,836$ 544,076,360$ 38.2% 37.1% 34.4%January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes69
GENERALPURPOSEREVENUE7Note: FY 2012/13 Charges for Services revenue includes net of adverse decision regarding property tax admin loss ($5.3 million)FY 2007/08 FY 2008/09 FY 2009/10 FY 2010/11 FY 2011/12 FY 2012/13 FY 2013/14 FY 2014/15 FY 2015/16ActualsActualsActualsActualsActualsActualsActualsActuals AdoptedProperty Taxes292,844,817 290,226,190 271,340,322 263,410,494 266,177,126 270,099,929 287,429,702 310,718,176 320,580,000Other Taxes20,254,974 19,784,051 16,952,226 17,129,427 16,117,187 19,843,785 23,543,390 25,209,045 20,660,000Licenses, Permits & Franchises 8,608,175 10,266,183 7,549,279 7,648,768 7,347,466 7,402,661 8,186,705 10,086,075 7,925,000Fines, Foreitures & Penalties 10,648,126 9,381,467 9,400,863 12,493,236 9,833,684 18,402,209 13,430,864 23,247,286 22,500,000Earnings on Investment12,766,633 5,465,546 1,344,994 1,620,945 1,823,372 4,415,052 1,944,178 2,452,866 1,700,000Intergovernmental6,824,242 7,281,018 7,937,202 8,297,228 5,251,426 4,661,882 6,551,028 17,867,806 5,600,000Charges for Current Services 8,959,053 9,226,290 8,001,888 7,234,435 7,578,851 722,065 7,522,655 7,557,227 5,665,000Other Revenue1,883,2251,619,071992,706910,1731,215,8561,043,9971,752,5022,037,732250,000Total$362,789,245 $353,249,816 $323,519,480 $318,744,706 $315,344,968 $326,591,580 $350,361,024 $399,176,213 $384,880,000January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes70
General Fund/General Purpose Revenue FY 2016/17 ProjectionsProperty Tax – 6% budgeted growth – Current Secured increase of $13.1 million, Property Tax-In Lieu of VLF $7.8 million increase Net Taxes for Current Property increase of $20.7 millionPublic Safety Half-Cent Sales Tax (Prop 172) – 3.0% budgeted growth including pro-rata decrease - $2.2 million Sales Tax – Flat – County projected to receive $14.0 million for FY 2016/17State – Mostly stableFederal – Unknown/Positive8January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes71
CONTINUEGENERALPURPOSEREVENUECOSTAVOIDANCE9Contribution to Hospital/CCHP Enterprise Funds: •2008/09$61,349,686•2013/14$30,408,776 (50% decrease)Potential reduction in General Fund Contribution to the Hospital as the Affordable Care Act (National Health Care) is implemented •2014/15 through 2016/17 no further reduction•2017/18 reduce by additional $5 Million •2018/19 reduce by additional $10 Million•2019/20 and beyond – Expected Annual Contribution = $10 Million Assumption is that we will likely have $10 Million Uncompensated Care burden even after National Health CareJanuary 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes72
GENERALFUNDBALANCEASSUMPTIONSJune 30, 2015:Total general fund revenues were $1,364,369,000 and total fund balance including reserves were $295,337,000. Total fund balance is 21.6% of total revenue Of the $295.3 million in reserves$179.9 million was unassigned $115.5 million was assigned, committed, restricted or nonspendableMinimum fund balances of 5% and 10% would be $68.2 million and $136.4 million respectively. There was $158.9 million available over the 10% reserve minimum.June 30, 2016:It is planned and anticipated that Total General Fund Balance including Reserves will remain stable.June 30, 2017:No fund balance use is recommended in FY 2016-17.10January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes73
IMPORTANCE OFRESERVES FORCASHFLOWAlthough revenues are volatile, expenses (majority for salaries) are quite smooth.Even with a General Fund Reserve of $295.3 Million, the General Fund has a negative cash flow at least 9 months of the year.The General Fund cash balance begins the year with a negative cash balance due to large disbursements for advances, pension pre-pay costs, and accrued expenses.Cash flow is not positive until the second installment of property tax receipts are received in late spring.The Tax Losses Reserve Fund helps with the Treasury operations (cash flow) as it relates to the Teeter Advance of Taxes.These are reasons why it is important to maintain a reasonable balance in the Tax Losses Reserve Fund, rather than the minimum level. 11January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes74
Recent Tax Losses Reserve ActivityHigher than ‘normal’ delinquency deposits between FY 2007-08 and FY 2011-12 into the Tax Losses Reserve have allowed the County to:•Transfer larger annual amounts into the General Fund for general purpose; •Fund property tax related losses such as the recent adverse decision regarding Property Tax Administration Fees ($5.3 million) without impacting services in the General Fund; and •Fund much needed facility repairs, which would otherwise be funded with General Fund dollars.Balance of Tax Losses reserve $84.0 million, down from high of $101.4 million in FY 2011-12•Budgeted transfer targeted for $22 million in FY 2016/17, will be reduced for FY 2017-18 to approximately $12 million.12Tax Losses ReserveFiscal Year TransfersFY 93-94 6,225,373FY 94-95 15,321,481FY 95-96 14,389,022FY 96-97 9,889,000FY 97-98 thru FY 02-03 7,389,000FY 03-04 20,889,000FY 04-05 9,000,000FY 05-06 9,000,000FY 06-07 8,000,000FY 07-08 10,000,000FY 08-09 9,000,000FY 09-10 9,000,000FY 10-11 12,000,000FY 11-12 9,000,000FY 12-13 22,300,000FY 13-14 22,000,000FY 14-15 22,000,000Budgeted FY 15-16 22,000,000Total Since 1993 274,347,87612,000,000Budget for General Purpose Revenue Transfer10,000,000Budget for deferred maintenance facility projectsJanuary 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes75
INFRASTRUCTURE$5 Million was Budgeted in FY 2012/13,$10 Million in FY 2013/14 and FY 2014/15, and $10 Million in FY 2015/16; however delays have occurred and all the monies have not been expendedPlan to budget approximately $10 million for FY 2016/17Continue to fund facility lifecycle on a by-building cost-per-square foot basis – target $750k set by Finance Committee Continue to explore ‘cloud’ IT opportunitiesCounty Administration BuildingEmergency Operations Center13January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes76
14LABORJanuary 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes77
15RETIREMENTSCALENDARYEARS2007-2015January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes78
UNEMPLOYMENTRATE9 YEARCOMPARISON16Note 2015 4.6% figure is November data.January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes79
HISTORICALLABORCOSTSGENERALFUND17* Projection is double six months.** Change column is between FY 14/15 and projected 15/16.FY 2008/09 FY 2009/10 FY 2010/11 FY 2011/12 FY 2012/13 FY 2013/14 FY 2014/15 FY 2015/16GENERAL FUNDActualsActualsActualsActualsActualsActualsActualsProjected*Change **Permanent Salaries364,404,976 337,566,573 330,685,736 323,214,116 321,605,335 338,133,888 355,392,455 375,731,666 20,339,211Temporary Salaries12,497,305 14,051,898 17,931,056 20,842,008 23,594,345 21,696,754 22,896,279 20,540,866 -2,355,413Permanent Overtime12,264,219 12,055,264 14,237,551 16,185,558 17,759,366 17,677,239 18,624,560 21,100,556 2,475,996Deferred Compensation 1,011,277 886,956 922,829 953,934 1,157,366 1,643,967 2,066,708 2,356,762 290,054Comp & SDI Recoveries -1,589,507 -1,719,857 -1,856,792 -1,687,531 -1,847,033 -2,070,813 -2,112,847 -1,988,020 124,827FICA/Medicare22,691,254 21,091,543 20,988,471 20,882,816 21,126,905 22,041,020 23,319,448 23,951,686 632,238Ret Exp-Pre 97 Retirees 1,956,847 1,892,272 1,878,723 1,869,642 1,845,967 1,873,514 1,878,527 1,894,944 16,417Retirement Expense 148,644,974 128,057,220 133,238,617 136,824,603 150,156,939 168,113,121 186,199,882 168,928,718 -17,271,164Employee Group Insurance 56,005,178 54,337,009 53,668,491 53,002,293 52,577,358 53,256,070 51,992,074 51,963,110 -28,964Retiree Health Insurance 25,692,908 26,714,761 28,677,01231,270,838 31,632,649 31,197,356 31,012,856 30,057,472 -955,384OPEB Pre-Pay13,911,579 13,741,036 13,721,448 13,723,499 13,785,604 13,065,598 13,842,468 13,842,4680Unemployment Insurance 775,489 1,633,117 2,153,845 1,284,237 1,374,314 1,400,057 1,182,995 1,244,698 61,703Workers Comp Insurance 13,963,367 13,144,008 13,455,147 11,246,660 11,274,142 11,576,087 12,112,641 16,216,194 4,103,553Labor Received/Provided 322,613661,279487,961581,832570,971302,254633,411272,112-361,299 Salaries and Benefits 672,552,479 624,113,079 630,190,095 630,194,505 646,614,228 679,906,112 719,041,457 726,113,232 7,071,775Increase / (Decrease) 8,524,784 -48,439,400 6,077,016 4,410 16,419,723 33,291,884 39,135,345 7,071,775January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes80
HISTORICALLABORCOSTSALLCOUNTYFUNDS18* Projection is double six months.** Change column is between FY 14/15 and projected 15/16.FY 2008/09 FY 2009/10 FY 2010/11 FY 2011/12 FY 2012/13 FY 2013/14 FY 2014/15 FY 2015/16ActualsActualsActualsActualsActualsActualsActualsProjected*Change **Permanent Salaries514,394,873 492,801,239 487,322,501 481,217,812 480,546,483 503,057,399 532,971,159 561,010,386 28,039,227Temporary Salaries32,721,949 37,337,487 40,912,512 46,635,323 52,468,685 51,266,968 50,172,059 47,230,274 -2,941,785Permanent Overtime16,639,812 15,740,598 17,862,642 21,723,606 23,466,747 23,007,597 25,517,093 28,766,468 3,249,375Deferred Comp 1,243,273 1,160,883 1,197,053 1,253,245 1,552,211 2,161,730 2,753,945 3,209,226 455,281Hrly Physician Salaries1,817,809 1,891,972 2,161,730 2,134,980 2,626,854 2,399,872 2,673,817 2,170,130 -503,687Perm Physicians Salaries28,806,831 31,213,084 31,173,790 33,118,707 35,632,415 37,469,448 40,076,676 44,968,804 4,892,128Perm Phys Addnl Duty Pay1,823,452 1,826,335 1,956,341 1,891,438 1,976,098 1,962,461 2,746,168 2,724,732 -21,436Comp & SDI Recoveries-2,400,931 -2,632,322 -2,796,169 -2,332,274 -2,557,280 -2,921,425 -2,770,050 -2,568,698 201,352Vacation/Sick Leave Accrual328,684 338,576 -422,707 559,247 242,303 4,277,040 1,029,6430 -1,029,643FICA/Medicare37,231,115 36,364,870 36,288,855 36,696,440 37,362,344 38,895,210 41,270,123 41,586,834 316,711Ret Exp-Pre 97 Retirees2,751,898 2,752,131 2,752,614 2,751,672 2,750,979 2,751,464 2,749,908 2,752,120 2,212Retirement Expense207,114,048 184,140,541 192,892,090 202,105,619 221,505,843 246,812,805 273,575,294 246,024,048 -27,551,246Employee Group Insurance86,510,577 85,891,576 85,811,334 85,433,103 84,392,571 85,364,402 83,948,673 84,221,336 272,663Retiree Health Insurance33,388,058 35,170,431 37,741,416 41,709,278 42,578,927 42,573,182 42,442,455 41,107,162 -1,335,293OPEB Pre-Pay17,968,343 18,942,232 18,573,163 18,625,208 18,637,346 17,413,840 18,040,710 18,040,7100Unemployment Insurance1,188,580 2,609,671 3,463,678 2,096,833 2,265,484 2,302,337 1,955,247 2,054,506 99,259Workers Comp Insurance20,405,944 19,544,807 19,763,721 16,821,150 17,044,418 17,290,639 18,180,322 23,865,222 5,684,900Labor Received/Provided287,080611,851453,732646,985550,728293,186636,802309,444-327,358 Salaries and Benefits1,002,221,395 965,705,962 977,108,296 993,088,372 1,023,043,156 1,076,378,155 1,137,970,044 1,147,472,704 9,502,660Increase / (Decrease)29,072,144 -36,515,433 11,402,334 15,980,076 29,954,784 53,334,999 61,591,889 9,502,660January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes81
OPEB LIABILITYSIGNIFICANTLYREDUCED DUETOBOARDACTIONS& COLLECTIVEBARGAININGBased upon June 30, 2015 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report data:•Reduction in 2006 OPEB Liability from $2.6 billion to $783.1 million (using assets of $173.3 million)•ARC from $216.3 million to $88.5 million•Reduction reflects health plan changes, caps on County contributions and labor agreements•Total OPEB Trust Market Value has fallen to $166.7 million as of September 30, 2015 •Per Governmental Accounting Standards Board, new Valuation report has been ordered as of 1/1/2016The Board’s actions have made it possible for the County to continue to provide much needed services, including health services, to County residents including the indigent.In March 2012, a lawsuit was filed by a retiree organization challenging the changes in retiree health care member subsidies. If the retirees prevail, the County could be liable for past and future premium costs.Ratio of retirees to active employees continues to climb progressivelyBiennial valuation for 2016 has been ordered and will be submitted to the Board upon completion.19Census Data2006 TotalActive/Retiree2014 TotalActive/RetireeActives8,428 63%8,089 57%Retirees and Survivors4,856 37%6,206 43%Total Counts 13,28414,295January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes82
LABORNEGOTIATIONS20Total NumberContractof Permanent EmployeesExpiration DateOpen or Opening June 30, 2016AFSCME Local 512, Professional and Technical Employees251 6/30/2016Contra Costa County Defenders Association 68 6/30/2015Deputy Sheriff’s Association, Mgmt Unit and Rank and File Unit 808 6/30/2016District Attorney Investigator’s Association 15 6/30/2016IHSS SEIU - United Healthcare Workers West 10/31/2015Professional & Technical Engineers – Local 21, AFL-CIO944 6/30/2016Public Employees Union, FACS Site Supervisor Unit 205 6/30/2016Public Employees Union, Local One1,908 6/30/2016SEIU Local 1021, Rank and File and Service Line Supervisors Units1,049 5,248 6/30/2016Expired or Expiring as of June 30, 201658.5%SettledAFSCME Local 2700, United Clerical, Technical and Specialized Employees 1,488 6/30/2017California Nurses Association1,014 12/31/2017CCC Deputy District Attorneys’ Association 85 6/30/2018IAFF Local 1230254 6/30/2017Physicians and Dentists of Contra Costa 275 10/31/2016Probation Peace Officers Association231 6/30/2018United Chief Officers’ Association 11 6/30/2017Western Council of Engineers 23 6/30/2017Management Classified & Exempt & Management Project336 3,717 Total8,965 January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes83
PRELIMINARYSALARYPROJECTIONDATAFORFY 2016/17General Fund increase of $52.8 million (includes cost of previously funded vacancies)•$40.4 million increase in permanent salaries•$934,000 decrease in retirement expense•$10.5 million increase in group health insurance•$763,000 increase in FICAAll County Funds increase of $145.5 million (includes cost of previously funded vacancies)•$121.3 increase million in permanent salaries•$676,000 increase in retirement expense•$19.0 million increase in group health insurance•$1.3 million increase in FICAoWe continue to be challenged by pension costs due to pending lawsuits and changes to Contra Costa County Employees’ Retirement Association policies and adopted rates•Rates may be much higher or lower in the future21January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes84
CONTRACOSTACOUNTYFIREPROTECTIONDISTRICT22CCC Fire Protection District budget stable; anticipating 6% AV GrowthEMS ambulance contract implementedBilling policies and procedures to the Board at February 9th Fire Board meetingInsurance reimbursements anticipated to begin March 2016First Quarterly Financial Report to the Board in May 2016Capital project planning underwayLafayette (Station 40) rebuildSan Pablo station rebuild in collaboration with the City of San PabloContinuing financial concerns with East Contra Costa FireJanuary 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes85
CONTINUEDREASONS FOROPTIMISMPositive Economic Outlook State Revenues UpState Budget reasonably stableAV revenue up 7.5%+ for 2015/16Budgeting 6.0% growth AV revenue in 2016/17Positive County ResultsBudget structurally balanced for 2015/16OPEB managedHave begun pre-funding Infrastructure needsFund Balance IncreasedStandard & Poor’s Rating Increase to AAA in 2013 (reaffirmed 2015)Pension Obligation Bond Matured 6/1/2022 ($47,382,000)23January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes86
REASONS FORCONCERNRevenues are not projected to keep up with expenditures for 2016/17 nor are they projected to do so for 2017/18 and beyondLabor Negotiations - Pent-up demandUnions representing almost 60% of our Employees will have their contracts open as of July 2016 (see Slide #20)Increased costs of benefitsUnreasonable expectations given funding availableLimited resourcesThis on top of contracts already settled will create further difficulties in establishing balance budgets for the next two to three years24January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes87
PROJECTEDTWOYEARLABORCOSTSFY 2016/17 ANDFY 2017/1825Known Costs:Health Insurance (County & PEMHCA) 25,110,000$ 25,110,000$ Pension Obligation Bonds (County)4,770,211$ 4,770,211$ Settled Contracts10,611,000$ 10,611,000$ Open Contracts:DSA and IHSS 26,500,000$ 26,500,000$ All Others 7/1/16 @ 2% 23,700,000$ All Others 7/1/16 @ 3%35,194,000$ Total Two Year Projected Impacts 90,691,211$ 102,185,211$ AV Projected Revenue Growth40,300,000$ 40,300,000$ Net Deficit(50,391,211)$ (61,885,211)$ FY 2016/17 & FY 2017/18January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes88
FY 2016-17 BUDGETHEARINGFORMATDraft Agenda for Discussion PurposesIntroduction/Summary by County AdministratorDepartmental Presentations last year:Sheriff-CoronerDistrict AttorneyChief Probation OfficerHealth Services DirectorEmployment and Human Services DirectorSpecify changes for this yearDeliberationRecommend holding all hearing on April 19thBudget Adoption on May 1026January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes89
“last year's words belong to last year's language And next year's words await another voice.” ― T.S. Eliot27January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes90
QUESTIONS?28January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes91
29January 26, 2016Official BOS meeting minutes92
RECOMMENDATION(S):
1. ACCEPT report from the Sheriff-Coroner, Health Services Director and County Probation Officer on the status of
Detention Mental Health services in County adult and juvenile detention facilities.
2. PROVIDE follow-up direction to staff.
FISCAL IMPACT:
No fiscal impact. This report is informational only.
BACKGROUND:
The County operates three adult and two juvenile detention facilities in various geographic locations throughout the
County. Each facility serves a unique population of individuals, with various underlying medical, psychological and
social needs, at various stages of the criminal justice system. Today’s presentation will concentrate on the provision
of mental health services across the spectrum of the criminal justice system, including pre-arrest, within the detention
setting and upon release.
APPROVE OTHER
RECOMMENDATION OF CNTY
ADMINISTRATOR
RECOMMENDATION OF BOARD
COMMITTEE
Action of Board On: 01/26/2016 APPROVED AS
RECOMMENDED
OTHER
Clerks Notes:
VOTE OF SUPERVISORS
AYE:John Gioia, District I Supervisor
Candace Andersen, District II
Supervisor
Mary N. Piepho, District III Supervisor
Karen Mitchoff, District IV Supervisor
Federal D. Glover, District V Supervisor
Contact: Timothy M. Ewell, (925)
335-1036
I hereby certify that this is a true and correct copy of an action taken and entered on the minutes of the Board of
Supervisors on the date shown.
ATTESTED: January 26, 2016
David J. Twa, County Administrator and Clerk of the Board of Supervisors
By: June McHuen, Deputy
cc:
5.
To:Board of Supervisors
From:David O. Livingston, Philip Kader & Dr. William Walker
Date:January 26, 2016
Contra
Costa
County
Subject:REPORT ON THE STATUS OF DETENTION MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES IN CONTRA COSTA COUNTY
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 93
BACKGROUND: (CONT'D)
Pre-Arrest Efforts
A large number of individuals booked into County detention facilities have some type of mental health diagnosis. In recognition
of that, and to proactively prevent those individuals from entering the criminal justice system due, in part, to their underlying
illness, the County maintains initiatives to divert this population to appropriate treatment. One example of this is the newly
established Mental Health Evaluation Teams (MHET).
In May 2015, the County, in partnership with the Contra Costa County Police Chiefs Association and the cities of Antioch,
Concord and Richmond, established MHET teams composed of a police officer and a mental health clinician. MHET teams
operate in police patrol vehicles and respond to requests from other patrol officers to provide welfare checks on residents
following a psychiatric event, provide outreach to residents that may have a mental health diagnosis and support residents
with household safety planning and resources.
In 2015, the MHET teams made 183 unique, client face-to-face contacts throughout the County.
Adult Detention Facilities
The County operates three adult detention facilities along with a custody alternative facility, which allows certain inmates to
serve jail time outside of the detention setting. Below is a chart indicating the average inmate population vs. rated capacity at
each facility:
The above ADP information is critical to understanding the needs of an in-custody population; however, it is equally important
to illustrate the volume of individuals making contact with the County jail system. In 2015, the Sheriff’s Office received 26,296
bookings, or 72 per day. This is up 9.4% from 2014.
All adult bookings are completed at the MDF, which includes a mental health screening. This screening is completed by
nursing staff from the Health Services Department (HSD) operating within the facility. Below is the ten-step Mental Health
Assessment used during booking screenings:
Over the past several years, HSD staff has averaged between 6,000-7,000 mental health screenings, at booking, per quarter.
Should an inmate being booked answer “yes” to any of the above screening questions, a comprehensive mental health
assessment is performed. The mental health assessment includes a psycho-social and mental status evaluation. Below is a
chart illustrating this trend since fiscal year 2012/13:
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 94
Following booking, an intake health assessment and a mental health screening, the Sheriff’s Office, in consultation with
Mental Health staff in the facility, may assign a special classification to the inmate should there be evidence of an existing
mental health issue. This is similar to many other populations with special classifications housed within the detention facility,
including those with affiliation with a gang or in other protective custody.
Typically, special populations, including those required to take medication for mental health needs, are exclusively housed at
the MDF. Below is a listing of certain special classifications and the amount of inmates assigned to each as of January 2016:
Current Special Classification Inmate Populations – January 2016
Mental Health - 343
Protective Custody - 220
Gang Affiliation - 200 (those are only the known members)
Penal Code 187 (Murder) - 142
Administrative Segregation – 94
Once in the facility, mental health services are limited to crisis intervention. Group therapy sessions are not offered at MDF
primarily due to the high inmate census and restrictions in the physical plant. Specifically, there are no group therapy rooms
or “no-contact” visiting rooms for individual counseling sessions. Ultimately, the MDF was not designed with the provision of
comprehensive mental health treatment in mind.
More severe cases include inmates that have been deemed “incompetent to stand trial” and must be returned to competency
prior to prosecution of the case. Most felony incompetent to stand trial cases in this category are the responsibility of the
Department of State Hospitals (DSH). Currently, DSH has a significant backlog of bed space available for this population. For
example, Napa State Hospital has a 6-8 month waiting list to be enrolled into a program.
For misdemeanor defendants deemed incompetent to stand trial, County Forensic Mental Health Services (FMHS), within the
Behavioral Health Division, provides outpatient restoration of competency treatment. Since beginning in June 2011, FMHS has
received 120 court orders for restoration of competency treatment. Of those, 16 have been transferred to DSH for additional
treatment. Most FMHS referrals are seen in the community.
The Public Defender’s Office advises that approximately 300 clients have been deemed incompetent to stand trial since 2012.
The shortage of appropriate State beds has put continued stress on the local detention facilities and created a backlog of
cases within the local criminal justice system.
Other alternatives to the State Hospital system have been available, including those counties with facilities able to care for this
population. Contra Costa County has maintained a contract with Santa Clara County for one such bed. This has allowed the
County to transfer inmates throughout the year to that program, including five in 2014 and twelve in 2015. In late 2015, Santa
Clara County announced that they will no longer be offering that service.
Juvenile Detention
The County operates two juvenile detention facilities, including the Juvenile Hall and the Orin Allen Youth Rehabilitation
Facility (OAYRF). The County’s juvenile mental health infrastructure is robust and includes a wraparound component once
juveniles are released from the facility.
Juvenile bookings average 90-100 per month at the Juvenile Hall. Similar to adult bookings, each juvenile is administered the
brief mental health screening discussed previously by HSD nursing staff. It is estimated that approximately 60% of juveniles
booked have some kind of mental health diagnosis. Below is a chart illustrating the number of juveniles receiving an intake
health screening at the Juvenile Hall:
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 95
Once booked into the facility, juveniles may be assigned to a treatment unit. The Juvenile Hall is composed of eight units, two
of which provide comprehensive treatment services. The Youthful Offender Treatment Program (YOTP) serves up to thirty
boys within the facility while the Girls in Motion (GIM) program serves up to fifteen girls.
Juvenile Hall provides behavioral health services seven days per week (clinicians are on site from 9:00 am to 7:30 pm). Staff
includes one full-time program manager, two full-time licensed clinicians, one 0.8 FTE licensed clinician, and three 0.5 FTE
clinician trainees. Additionally, psychiatric services are available on Tuesday and Thursday (psychiatrist is on site from 9:00
am-2:00 pm). Health Services nursing staff is on site daily from 7:00 am to 10:45 pm with physician services available on site
Monday through Friday and on call after hours.
Transitioning from In-Custody to Outpatient Care
Adult Populations
For adults, Behavioral Health collaborates with Adult Felony Probation to serve specific populations, including both AB 109
clients released from state prison and general supervision clients released from county jail.
In March 2012, the Forensic Mental Health Services (FMHS) unit within Behavioral Health Division began accepting referrals
and providing services to clients. The team is comprised of 3 clinicians, 2 peer specialists, 1 Registered Nurse and a 0.2 FTE
prescriber. From March 2012 through December 2015, FMHS has made a total of 864 unique, face-to-face contacts with
individuals on adult felony probation.
Referrals are identified by probation status:
AB 109 – 500 referred, 303 contacted;
General Supervision- 800 referred, 561 contacted
Clinicians are co-located at the three, regional adult probation offices. The referral process involves Deputy Probation Officers
who schedule clients for screenings with the clinicians. The intake process involves clinicians screening clients for voluntary
services within the Physical and Behavioral Health Systems of Care. Services include screening and assessment, health care
navigation, benefit support, psychiatric case management and group facilitation at Probation, including Seeking Safety Trauma
groups and Wellness Recovery Action Plan (WRAP) groups.
Juvenile Populations
Juveniles being released from detention facilities have several services in place for continuity of care upon release.
Specifically, Behavioral Health maintains clinicians at regional Probation offices, similar to the adult populations, which juvenile
Deputy Probation Officers can refer clients to for services. In addition, Probation provides a cascade of transition services for
youth returning to the community, including:
The Youth Justice Initiative, funded by the Byrne Justice Assistance Grant (JAG) last year, is in the early stages of
implementation. Among other things, this initiative aims to ensure that juveniles receive appropriate care upon release by
providing additional assistance to both the youth and families.
The Mentally Ill Offender Crime Reduction (MIOCR) Grant is funding a Functional Family Therapy (FFT) program
targeting juveniles released from the YOTP or GIM programs identified above. Probation hopes to expand this program
more completely to the OAYRF in the future; however, a small amount of referrals have been made from OAYRF.
Multisystemic Therapy (MST) is a family based, in home program. The goal of MST is to assist and enable caregivers
to appropriately set (and manage) expectations, impose structure, and enforce consequences. Services are intensive,
consisting of multiple (in home) sessions per week.
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 96
Multidimensional Family Therapy (MDFT) is another in home, family based therapy targeting co-occurring substance
abuse issues that negatively impact family and community functioning.
Challenges and Considerations
The County places significant resources in the provision of mental health services at all phases of the criminal justice system.
It is important to continue reviewing challenges that arise during the provision of those services and evaluate considerations
for service delivery.
Challenges and Opportunities for Improvement
Lack of capacity in community for critical, outpatient substance abuse programs1.
Accessibility to outpatient mental health appointments upon release from detention2.
Willingness of client to continue treatment post-release3.
Family unwilling or unable to assist youth in continuation of treatment post-release4.
Limitations of the physical plant at the MDF to facilitate comprehensive mental health treatment5.
Continued backlog at State Hospitals for treatment of inmates deemed incompetent to stand trial6.
Future Considerations
Continue to seek funding for construction of mental health beds within County detention facilities1.
Continue support of pre-arrest mental health efforts, including MHET, sobering centers and other diversion programs2.
Build capacity within the community for needed behavioral health programs, including substance abuse programs3.
Advocate for additional funding of State Hospitals for return to competency treatment4.
CONSEQUENCE OF NEGATIVE ACTION:
This report is informational only.
CHILDREN'S IMPACT STATEMENT:
No impact.
CLERK'S ADDENDUM
Speakers: Ralph Hoffman; Teresa Pasquini; Lauren Rettagliata; Joseph Partansky
ATTACHMENTS
Detention Mental Health Presentation
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 97
Presented by:
Health Services: Office of the Sheriff:
Cynthia Belon, Director of Behavioral Health Matthew Schuler, Assistant Sheriff, Custody Services Bureau
Anna Roth, CEO CCRMC, Health Centers and Detention Health
Probation:
James Rivers, Probation Manager
January 26, 2016
Board of Supervisors Retreat Meeting
1
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 98
Adult Detention Mental Health Services & Challenges
o Booking Statistics
o Behavioral Health Community Based Services
o Inmate Classification
o Wraparound Services
Juvenile Detention Mental Health Services & Challenges
o Booking Statistics
o Behavioral Health Screening
o Classification and Module Placements
o Wraparound Services
Current Partnerships and Initiatives
Panel Discussion: Challenges and Considerations
2
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 99
Booking Statistics
o Annual – about 9.4% increase from 2014 to 2015
•2014 – 24, 042
•2015 – 26,296
o Average Daily Bookings (2015) – 72
Daily Populations – Average for 2015
o In-Custody Facilities
o Custody Alternative Facility – 386
Total Average Daily Jail Population– 1763
2015 Average
Daily Population
Rated
Capacity
% of
Capacity
Martinez Detention Facility 651 695 93.7%
West County Detention Facility 660 1096 60.2%
Marsh Creek Detention Facility 66 188 35.1%
Total 1377 1979
3
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 100
Behavioral Health Preventative Services (Pre-Arrest)
o Mental Health Evaluation Teams (MHET)
•January of 2015 - referrals and services with Forensic Mental Health began
•May of 2015 - the Police Chiefs Association dedicated partial funding for
three police officers to participate in MHET
•Currently collaborating with three police departments – Richmond, Concord
and Pittsburg
•Between January to December 2015, MHET has made 183 unduplicated
client face-to-face contacts throughout the county.
o Primary Care integration with behavioral health
o Psychiatric Emergency Services (PES) – approx. 900 evaluations/month
o Felony Probation Collaborations
o Court Programs
4
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 101
Mental Health Screening (In Custody)
o Ten question mental health assessment conducted during intake at
the booking facility.
Figure 1:
MENTAL HEALTH ASSESSMENT
HAVE YOU EVER TRIED TO HARM YOURSELF OR HAD SUICIDAL THOUGHTS?
ARE YOU HAVING SUICIDAL THOUGHTS NOW?
ARE YOU CURRENTLY RECEIVING TREATMENT FOR A MENTAL ILLNESS, DEPRESSION, MOOD SWINGS OR
ANXIETY DISORDER?
DO YOU HAVE UNUSUAL THOUGHTS, HEAR VOICES OR SEE THINGS?
HAVE YOU BEEN ADMITTED TO A PSYCHIATRIC UNIT WITHIN THE PAST 5 YEARS?
HAVE YOU EVER BEEN TREATED AT A REGIONAL CENTER OF THE EAST BAY OR DIAGNOSED WITH
DEVELOPMENTAL/LEARNING PROBLEMS?
HAVE YOU EVER SERVED IN THE MILITARY?
DO YOU HAVE A SERVICE CONNECTED MENTAL HEALTH DISABILITY?
DO YOU HAVE A CASE MANAGER?
REQUEST MENTAL HEALTH EVAL?
5
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 102
o Number of inmates with mental health service referrals while in detention
can be up to 50% of the number of inmates booked during the same
period.
6
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 103
Post-Arrest – Classification and Placement
o Classification performed by custody staff in consultation with mental health staff.
o Mental health staff perform a psycho-social and mental status evaluation.
o Patients placed on M Module based on level of impairment, dysfunction or
vulnerability.
Placement Challenges
o Santa Clara closing
•2013 - 5 inmates
•2014 – 5 inmates
•2015 – 12 inmates
o Napa facilities – waiting list of up to 6 to 8 months
•1370 Felony cases (CONREP)
•1370.01 Misdemeanor cases (NHD)
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January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 104
o Objective Classification System
•Criminal History
•Current Charges
•Gang affiliation
•Sexual Orientation/Gender
•Mental Health
•Medical
•In-Custody Behavior
•Enemies
•Region of the County they reside
o Identification of Inmate Special Housing Needs
•Protective Custody
•Administrative Segregation
•Medical Housing
•Gang Separation
•Identified Enemies already in-custody
8
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 105
Classification Challenges
o Physical Plant Restrictions –
•Lack of therapy space, including group therapy.
•Only space for one-on-one counseling, but no non-contact one-on-one
counseling.
•Lack of appropriate bed space for current inmate population.
•Mental health inmates needing medication are housed throughout the
Mar tinez Detention Facility due to lack of appropriate bed space.
o Current Inmate Population Numbers-
•Administrative Segregation - 94
•Protective Custody - 220
•PC 187 (Murder) - 142
•Mental Health – 343
•Gang Affiliation – 200 (those are only the known members)
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January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 106
Wraparound Services (Release - out of custody)
o Collaboration with Adult Felony Probation (AB109)
o Referrals and services with Forensic Mental Health Services (FMHS)
•The team is comprised of 3 clinicians, 2 peer specialists (CSWs), 1
registered nurse and a 0.2 FTE prescriber.
•Between January 2012 to December 2015, FMHS has made a total of
864 unduplicated face-to-face contacts with individuals on adult felony
probation.
•Referrals are identified by probation status:
•AB 109 – 500 referred, 303 contacted
•General Supervision- 800 referred, 561 contacted
10
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 107
Wraparound Services Challenges
o Volume of behavioral health service needs and delivery capacity –
including substance abuse treatment programs
o Lack of timely access to services – shelter, transportation, or
employment
o Treatment services are voluntary
o Communications between clinicians and family
o Recidivism
11
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 108
Booking Statistics
o Current average of 90 – 100 youth per month
o 60% of youth who are admitted to Juvenile Hall have a mental
health diagnosis.
Daily Populations – Average for 2015
o Juvenile Hall – 140 – 150 (290 bed capacity)
o Orin Allen Youth Rehabilitation Facility – 75 youth (100 bed
capacity)
12
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 109
Behavioral Health Screening (In Custody)
o Mental health screen conducted by health staff
o Referrals made to a Mental Health Clinical Specialist for evaluation
13
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 110
Classification and Placement
o Eight units, two of which are treatment units
o Behavioral Health uses Massachusetts Youth Screening Instrument,
Version 2 (MAYSI-2) tool to assist with the identification of youth,
ages 12-17, with mental health needs.
•Administered to all “first-time” detainees
•52 item questionnaire that produces composite “risk” scores across
the following domains:
•Angry/Irritable
•Drug/Alcohol use
•Depressed/Anxious
•Somatic Complaints
•Suicide Ideation
•Thought Disturbance
•Traumatic Experiences
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January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 111
Behavioral Health Services
o Juvenile Hall
•Behavioral health services provided seven days a week with clinicians on
site from 9:00 am to 7:30 pm. Staff includes one full-time program
manager, two full-time licensed clinicians, one 0.8 FTE licensed clinician,
and three 0.5 FTE clinician trainees.
•Psychiatric services are available on Tuesday and Thursday with a
psychiatrist on site from 9:00 am to 2:00pm.
•Individual, family, and group therapy, as well as medication support
ser vices.
•Youthful Offender Treatment Program working with boys to prevent
recidivism.
•Girls in Motion for sexually exploited girls to attempt to get them of the
street and connect to mental health services.
o Orin Allen Youth Rehabilitation Facility
•Year-round schooling, drug education and mental health treatment
•Limited psychiatric services
15
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 112
Wraparound Services
o Transition of mental health services
•Referral to Regional Mental Health Liaison
•Access to Family Supportive Services
o Access to several intensive, home-based therapy referral programs:
•Seneca Mobile Response Team provides same day services for youth
discharging from hospital or psych emergency services.
•Regional county clinics for therapy and medication services
•Functional Family Therapy (FFT) - Family based, in home program
funded by the Mentally Ill Offender Crime Reduction (MIOCR) grant.
•Multisystemic Therapy (MST) - Family based in home program.
•Multidimensional Family Therapy (MDFT)
16
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 113
Behavioral Health Service Challenges
o Mental health care stigma and distrust of authority figures
o Need for additional therapists
Wraparound Service Challenges
o Return environment
o Follow up and continuity of care (missed appointments)
17
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 114
Forensic Mental Health Services for Adults
o Adult Felony Probation Collaboration
o Court Programs
o Co-responding with Law Enforcement (MHET)
Stepping Up
The Mentally Ill Offender Crime Reduction (MIOCR) grant
o Partnership between Probation and Mental Health to deliver
Functional Family Therapy to youth exiting Juvenile Hall and the Orin
Allen Youth Rehabilitation Facility
Youth Justice Initiative
18
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 115
Challenges
o Physical plant restrictions at MDF
o Accessibility to outpatient mental
health appointments and
willingness of client to continue
treatment post-release
o Lack of capacity for critical,
outpatient substance abuse
programs
o Return home/community
environment for youth behavioral
health services
o Continued backlog of State
Hospitals for treatment of inmates
deemed incompetent to stand trial
Considerations
o Seek funding for the construction
of mental health beds
o Support pre-arrest mental heath
efforts, including MHET, sobering
centers and other diversion
programs
o Build capacity within communities
for additional behavioral health
programs, including substance
abuse programs
o Advocate for additional funding of
State Hospitals for return to
competency treatment
19
January 26, 2016 Official BOS meeting minutes 116