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HomeMy WebLinkAboutMINUTES - 08061991 - H.1 H.1 THE BOARD OF SUPERVISORS OF CONTRA COSTA COUNTY, CALIFORNIA DATE: August 6, 1991 MATTER OF RECORD ------------------------- SUBJECT: Contra Costa County Rail. Opportunities Study This is the time for a presentation to the Board on the Contra Costa County Rail Oppertunities Study. Karl Schiermeyer, Schiermeyer Consulting Services, reviewed the attached report and advised that the Report had been presented to the Transportation Committee where it was discussed in detail. He responded to the Board members' questions. Supervisor Schroder commented that it is most encouraging that Contra Costa County is talking about working with adjacent jurisdictions and with other agencies. The Chair thanked Mr. Schiermeyer for the presentation, and requested staff to come back to the Transportation Committee and then to the Board with suggestions on the next phase. cc: GMEDA DRAF CONTRA COSTA COUNTY RAIL OPPORTUNITIES STUDY r' RECEIVED C AUG 61991 CLERK BOARD OF SUPE Rs CONTRA COSTA CO, PREPARED FOR: CONTRA COSTA COUNTY PREPARED BY: SCHIERMEYER CONSULTING SERVICES AUGUST 1991 TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE LIST OF TABLES ii LIST OF FIGURES ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY iii I. - INTRODUCTION I II. REGIONAL TRANSIT PLANS 4 III. POTENTIAL CONTRA COSTA COUNTY TRANSIT CORRIDORS 10 LIST OF TABLES PAGE TABLE 1. ACR STUDY TABLE 6 :- 6 18 TABLE 2 . ORIGIN DESTINATION PAIRS, POTENTIAL . FAIRFIELD TO SAN JOSE COMMUTER RAIL ROUTE 19 TABLE 3 . ORIGIN DESTINATION PAIRS, POTENTIAL SAN JOSE TO FAIRFIELD COMMUTER RAIL ROUTE 21 TABLE 4 . ORIGIN DESTINATION PAIRS, POTENTIAL SAN RAMON VALLEY LIGHT RAIL ROUTE 23 LIST OF FIGURES PAGE FIGURE 1. EXISTING AND NEAR-TERM PROPOSED RAIL ROUTES 5 FIGURE 2. MAP OF RAIL TRANSIT OPPORTUNITIES IN CONTRA COSTA COUNTY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In addition to planned extensions of BART and the initiation of new intercity rail services between the Bay Area and Sacramento, there appear to be at least two additional travel corridors which may have sufficient trip demand to warrant the development of rail service. These two corridors are presented on Figure 2 . The first travel corridor builds upon the Bay Area-Sacramento intercity corridor and is premised upon the fact that the majority of required capital improvements will be provided by that service. An assessment of current and projected work trips between Bay Area travel zones suggests that there is the potential for a commuter rail service which would operate between Fairfield in Solano County, through Martinez and Richmond in Contra Costa County, through Alameda County using railroad tracks adjacent to existing BART stations, across the Dumbarton bridge to a connection with the existing Caltrain service, thence south to a terminus at the San Jose/Tamien Caltrain-light rail station. While this service would provide peak capacity during rush hour it would function essentially as a regional rail service with multiple points of access to other local rail systems. The second rail corridor identified in this review is a proposed I- 680 corridor which would extend from Benecia in Solano County, through Martinez with a connection to the intercity and proposed regional rail service, to the Pleasant Hill BART station, with frequent stations along I-680 to a connection with an East Dublin BART station, thence southerly to a terminus in Pleasanton adjacent to the abandoned Southern Pacific right of way which is under study for use as a regional rail line from San Joaquin County into the Bay Area. Both corridors appear to have sufficient trip-making potential to justify additional investigation. iii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Introduction With the passage of Contra Costa County's Measure C in 1988 and the two statewide rail bond measures of 1990, significant additional rail transit resources have potentially been made available to address important transit needs within the county. The availability of these resources presents an opportunity to re- evaluate the transit future of Contra Costa County. Transit is already'playing a measurable role in the county. BART's Concord line provides high speed, long distance commuter service from several cities in central Contra Costa County to East Bay cities and downtown San Francisco. BART's Richmond line provides a similar service for western Contra Costa County. On anintercity level, AMTRAK provides a modest level of rail service to county residents. With stations in Richmond, Martinez and Antioch, western and eastern county residents can access San Joaquin Valley cities. Additional long distance, limited stop trains also service Richmond and Martinez. Even with this infrequent service, an effort has been made to coordinate the intercity services with BART through a combined rail station in Richmond. On a comparative scale, there are many urban counties throughout the State which could rightly be envious of the existing level of rail service within and through the county. Nevertheless, the general perception of area officials is that rail development and rail planning is disjointed, without a comprehensive scope. The corollary fear is that the planned rail investments may focus scarce resources in ways which do not optimize scarce dollars and may neglect other needs which have not been yet identified in any of the ongoing studies prepared by mode-specific agencies. For example, there are planning efforts underway to expand BART, an urban commuter system. There are also planning efforts underway to develop a new intercity rail corridor while expanding an existing intercity rail corridor. And while all three systems pass through parts of Contra Costa County, there has been no effort to coordinate one study with the other or even to make an effort to interconnect the intercity with the urban commuter system, beyond the existing connection in western Contra Costa County. And another question must be asked. Should area officials assume that all valid Contra Costa County transit needs have been addressed by these ongoing mode-specific studies? Do the intercity 1 studies and planned urban rail extensions take into account local transit needs or do those services primarily relate to much larger scale systems? Phrased in a different way, will the existing and planned rail services provide what the county needs? Are there . transit opportunities "falling through the cracks"? The objective of this report is to conduct an examination of these questions. Methodological Approach In order to better evaluate the transit needs and opportunities of Contra Costa County it is vital that the total context of the county be clearly :understood. This sense of context includes not only a clear understanding of trip demand data developed by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, but also the needs and plans of adjacent counties, as understood by those counties. In short, what is happening around Contra Costa County that may influence travel .within and through the county? Thus, one of the major tasks associated with this study involved direct interviews with key staff and officials involved with transportation planning, not only within Contra Costa County, but without as well. Relevant studies were inventoried and reviewed for applicability to the county. One of the principal objectives of these efforts was to identify whether there were any opportunities resulting from actions of others which Contra Costa County could build upon to enhance local transit benefit. Supplementing the interviews and document search was a focused assessment of MTC trip data. This data was reviewed not only to identify large trip volumes among and between zones, but also smaller volume movements which, when packaged with an ongoing transit project, might generate sufficient trip demand to warrant consideration for a rail transit project which might not be otherwise considered on its own merits. This trip demand assessment was supplemented with extended discussions with staff at the MTC and the Contra Costa Transportation Authority. In parallel with these activities, discussions were held with staff at BART and Caltrans to update near term project implementation activities and schedules. The result of these efforts is an identification of possible transit projects not currently planned. Future additional review may well yield conclusions not supportive of pursuing a potential project, for any variety of reasons. At this stage of the assessment, however, the data suggests that the projects identified in this study merit at least a more intensive review than is possible in this limited effort. 2 One of the identified projects will likely generate considerable discussion in central Contra Costa County cities. It is important to note at this time that any discussion of a project is without regard to specific technology or alignment. These are matters more properly left to the traditional alternatives analyses commonly prepared for major transit projects. The significance of noting a potential project is that a potential transportation deficit has been identified and placed before policy makers. The ultimate decision to advancea project is then a function of local policies and financing. 3 CHAPTER II: REGIONAL TRANSIT PLANS Existing Rail Transit Network The Bay Area has a relatively extensive rail network. This network consists not only of intra-urban services provided by the Bay Area Rapid Transit District (BART) , but also includes a new light rail service in Santa Clara County as well as the historic commute service between San Jose and San Francisco currently operated under the direction of Caltrans. In addition to these urban rail services the State of California currently funds a modest level of intercity service between Oakland and Bakersfield via Contra Costa County. Figure 1 displays the existing and near-term proposed urban and intercity rail services. BART Services The BART network consists of a large "X" pattern with one leg of the pattern extending from Concord in central Contra Costa County to downtown and western San Francisco, while the other leg extends from Richmond in western Contra Costa County southward to Fremont in Alameda County. BART has proven to be quite popular with the long distance commuters form central Contra Costa County destined for San Francisco. An extensive network of feeder buses complements the rail network and extends its reach substantially into nearby suburbs. Caltrain Commuter Services The Caltrain commuter service operates between terminals in San Jose and San Francisco. Both terminal stations have proven to present significant liabilities to optimum utilization. Thus in San Jose, Caltrans is currently constructing a new terminal for commuter rail which will provide a direct connection with the county's light rail line. At the San Francisco terminal, an improved terminal location is acknowledged to be needed by all but as yet no final plan of action has been adopted and funded. Notwithstanding the current structural route deficiencies of this service, the commuter service has seen some growth in recent years. 4 FIGURE 1 EXISTING AND NEAR-TERM PROPOSED URBAN AND INTERCITY RAIL SERVICES (TO BE SUPPLIED BY CONTRA COSTA COUNTY) Intercity Rail Services In addition to long distance intercity train routes which extend from Oakland through Richmond and Martinez to Sacramento and beyond, Amtrak operates three daily roundtrips between Oakland, Richmond, Berkeley, Martinez, Antioch, Stockton and other San Joaquin Valley cities. Service is expected to grow on this route. The intercity services have a combined station facility with BART at Richmond. Near-Term Proposed Extensions to Rail Services Intra-Urban Rail Services Planning for rail service expansion is ongoing with all the agencies charged with these services. Each year the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) releases its Rail Extension Program which prioritizes and updates financial and scheduling information regarding the projects within the region. Those projects which appear to be reasonably achievable and substantially or fully funded are labeled "Tier I" projects. "Tier II" projects are those projects which are in various stages of development but are either lacking a funded financial plan or other required approvals. The 1991 MTC update lists 6 projects in the Tier I category: 1. Caltrain San Francisco extension 2 . BART extension from Daly City to San Francisco Airport 3 . BART extension from Concord to West Pittsburg 4 . BART extension to Dublin 5. BART extension to Warm Springs 6. Tasman extension to Santa Clara County light rail Despite being labeled Tier I projects, some aspects of the projects noted above yet remain unresolved. For example, the Caltrain extension project as currently proposed appears more uncertain than its Tier I status would suggest. There has been no final agreement on project scope or expenditure. Likewise the BART extension to Dublin has yet to be resolved in terms of whether the project will terminate at West Dublin or East Dublin. Nevertheless, in broad terms the funding appears to be in place to move forward on most if not all of these projects. Thus in terms of Contra Costa County, two near-term projects which will likely be completed prior to the year 2000 include the extensions to West Pittsburg in the north and Dublin to the south (in Alameda County) . The expenditure plans show the Dublin extension completed in 1995 and the West Pittsburg extension completed in 1997. 6 Intercity Rail Services The California Department of Transportation Division of Rail Services has an ambitious expansion program underway. As a result of studies undertaken pursuant to ACR 132 and because of funding provided under two recent statewide rail bond measures, Caltrans is proceeding to implement service both on the corridor between San Jose, Oakland, Martinez and Sacramento (and beyond) as well as on the corridor between Sacramento and Stockton, connecting to the San Joaquin trains which currently operate between Bakersfield, Fresno, Stockton, Martinez and Oakland. These two corridors may, in fact, operate as a single corridor as the connecting Stockton trains will likely operate San Jose-Oakland-Sacramento-Stockton and return. Thus the city of Martinez and western and central Contra Costa County is likely :'to benefit from a greatly increased level of intercity rail service. While actual implementation of this new and expanded service depends upon successful negotiations with the owning railroad, Caltrans has clearly indicated that it is prepared to fund required capital improvements and acquire equipment as soon as possible. Thus this study assumes that the proposed new intercity services are also "near-term" . Additional Potential Services Neighboring San Joaquin County has expressed public interest in a new interregional service between Stockton, Tracy, Livermore and the Bay Area via a rail route over the Altamont Pass. Some funding has been provided in Proposition 116 to study this corridor and San Joaquin County has some funds set aside which could also be used to fund such a service. As yet no feasibility study has been conducted and for this reason it is assumed that such a service would not be in place prior to the year 2000, if at all. Nevertheless, since the probable route of such a service would be in the I-580 corridor, potential points of interconnection between that service and a central Contra Costa County-Alameda County service are shown on Figure 2 . In the Bay Area itself interest has also been expressed in a cross- bay extension to Caltrain which would connect east bay and west bay over the Dumbarton bridge. The service pattern proposed for this service is limited to a few stations in southern Alameda County with a direct connection to the core Caltrain line on the Peninsula and service southward to San Jose. No decision has yet been made on this proposed service. 7 a a�4�11s cr.F— s 0 Cl) cn � c U 1 O 1 J J G l j x w r., 03 Ninoaor Wv03wvlyLLI 03 W a' 0 M O OD W ;Jz a. u U0 LLI LU w`fJ.1 g tr ❑ Cr N LL. 4 el ui o Z O C J l r A (� m . � � �O � 04'4p�'p z ♦ti d '`..� 5 F ,. E An intriguing feature of this service is the use of the existing Dumbarton rail bridge which connects both sides of the San Francisco Bay in a location where there are no other proposed rail improvements on the drawing boards. This aspect of that service has provided some input to the proposed commuter rail proposal outlined later in this report. Another significant service expansion under study relates both to the proposed widening of I-80, the proposed expansion of bridge capacity over the Carquinez Strait, and the interest in extending BART either from its terminal at Richmond or E1 Cerrito Del Norte towards Hercules or Crockett or even towards Carquinez and Solano County. This BART extension is a Tier II project whose precise definition and funding 'have yet to be determined. For these reasons it is assumed that this is not a near-term project. Coordination Between the Proposed Projects While planners within the MTC region have clearly adopted strong policies on the coordination of the various proposed rail projects (i.e. , the new San Jose Caltrain terminal is linked to the Santa Clara light rail system; the downtown San Francisco Caltrain extension is linked to interconnections between that system and BART and the San Francisco Municipal Railway) , the same cannot be said about coordination between the intercity rail program and BART's urban rail program. The proposed intercity rail program is linked well to its own network of routes, via connections both at Sacramento, Martinez, Oakland and San Jose. The intercity rail service also makes an excellent interconnection with Caltrain at San Jose. And while the existing interconnection between intercity rail and BART at Richmond will likely receive very intensive use as intercity frequencies become more substantial, the lack of a convenient connection between BART and the intercity services in central Contra Costa County will likely result in less than full use of the potential of either service within the central part of the County. BART's West Pittsburg extension is clearly oriented to further the principal focus of BART in that part of the county: long distance commuting, primarily to San Francisco and east bay points. BART is of limited usefulness for travel within central Contra Costa County and cannot be used efficiently to connect with the proposed intercity services at either Martinez or Antioch. Thus, while there will be a considerable amount of public funds expended both on BART and on intercity rail within Contra Costa County, there has been no overt effort to link the two planning programs in any systematic way. 9 CHAPTER III POTENTIAL CONTRA COSTA COUNTY TRANSIT CORRIDORS Review of Travel Forecast Data The primary data resource for this study has been the various travel forecasts prepared by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) . Other travel data prepared by Contra Costa County has also been reviewed, although it should be pointed out that even the Contra Costa County data originated with the MTC studies but has been modified for local application. The MTC has subdivided the region into 34 superdistricts. Current and projected travel data are shown for each superdistrict pair. Thus trips originating in superdistrict 1 and terminating in superdistricts . 1 through 34 are compiled. The process is repeated for all 34 superdistricts. Of interest to Contra Costa County officials are those trips which either pass through, terminate or originate in the county. Thus the primary focus of the review has been on these trips. As will be seen however, trips between zones outside the county's sphere have in some instances been examined in order to test the feasibility of a regionwide commuter rail concept. Relationship of Trips to Available Rail Resources This study is being conducted in the context of a perception that there are existing rail assets available to meet transit needs. Thus the focus of this review has been on those travel links which conceivably could make use of a rail asset. Conversely, there has been no great effort to search out totally new travel corridors for which there are no apparently available right-of-ways. While this approach is different from the more typical transit needs assessment approach, it has the distinct benefit of focusing efforts on potential corridors of public interest and establishing whether there is a problem which could be remedied to some extent by the available right-of-way. 10 The five major rail assets focused on in this review were the following: 1. The Southern Pacific mainline from Solano County across the Carquinez Strait at Benecia to Martinez, Richmond, Oakland and San Jose; 2 . The Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe line between Martinez . and Richmond; . . 3 . The abandoned Southern Pacific and active Union Pacific rail lines between Tracy, Livermore, Pleasanton and Fremont; 4 . TheSouthern Pacific rail line between Martinez, :Antioch, Brentwood and Tracy; 5. The publicly owned former Southern Pacific San Ramon branch line between San Ramon and Highway 4 generally paralleling I-680. The first two rail routes have generally been discussed in terms of commuter service from northern and eastern Contra Costa County into the east Bay Area. The third line, through Altamont Pass and Niles Canyon, has been discussed primarily by San Joaquin County as a means of mitigating traffic on I-580. The fourth line could be an extension of either the first or second line noted above and would travel east from Martinez. The fifth line is owned by Contra Costa County and has been the subject of considerable discussion for several years. Thus the availability of these right-of-ways formed the backdrop for the review of MTC travel data. It could be said that with the solution in hand the effort was now to determine if there was a problem in that corridor requiring a solution. As part of this review, officials of the Southern Pacific Railroad were interviewed. The Southern Pacific Railroad is willing, under terms and conditions yet to be negotiated, to make available all of the most useful segments of its system and most of its currently active lines, with the exception of a portion of its 1 (i ford line cJ between east Oakland and west of the Dumbarton bridge. In that sole instance, the Southern Pacific railroad is offering a parallel line which, in some respects, is even superior to the other line. 11 Approach to the Review of Travel Forecasts The purpose of this review of regional trip data has been to identify potential corridors of unmet needs. Thus corridors of travel which are now being served by BART or can reasonably be expected to be served by BART in the future were eliminated from consideration. Consequently travel between the superdistrict comprising Concord and the superdistrict comprising Berkeley was not included in any calculations as this As an existing corridor of travel served by BART. Also travel to destinations such as San Jose, which will likely eventually receive BART service via a Warm Springs extension, was examined closely to eliminate those travel paths from certain superdistricts for which the BART option would offer attractive service. In addition to insuring that any proposed service would not overlap with BART services, the analysis focused only on Home-Based Work trips, those trips in other words which might be amenable to a commuter rail 'service. Using this conservative approach it was hoped that some ambiguities would be removed from the assessment. In actual fact, of course, this approach would also clearly eliminate some trips which would probably utilize a commuter rail route. Nevertheless this conservative approach was clearly mandated by the need to distinguish potential new routes from the existing and proposed BART system. In the consideration of a proposed intracounty transit system, local trips within the county, even adjacent to the BART network, were considered. The premise in this instance is that the orientation of BART service is primarily to the long distance trip and that shorter distance trips should not be viewed as exclusively the domain of BART if other factors suggested the viability of a locally oriented rail system. Rail Corridor Suitability One additional criterion came to the fore early in the review. And that related to the quality of the rail asset itself. Two routes in particular, the Santa Fe between Martinez and Richmond and the Union Pacific/Southern Pacific alignments between Fremont and Tracy, are corridors which would require substantial capital investment to make suitable for a reasonably high speed commuter service. Thus, as the analysis proceeded it became apparent that there was an implicit link between potential patronage and the level of investment required to handle the patronage. As it turned out, even if the capital investment requirements had been modest on the two routes mentioned above, the trip making potential on those routes was not of a magnitude at this time to warrant additional technical analysis. 12 RESULTS OF DATA ASSESSMENT A review of trip data prepared by the MTC and other reports prepared by various Bay Area governments indicate that there may be potential for viable new rail services serving Contra Costa County in the following locations: 1. A commuter rail servi=ce from Fairfield in Solano County, operating on the Southern Pacific mainline, via Martinez, Richmond, Oakland, Dumbarton Bridge and the Caltrain Peninsula line to San Jose/Tamien; 2 . A light rail or similar technology serving central Contra Costa County, beginning" at Martinez with connections to intercity and commuter rail at that station (with a possible extension over the Benecia bridge to. a Solano County station) , paralleling the I-680 corridor south to a connection with the BART system near the Pleasant Hill station, continuing south through San Ramon to a connection to the proposed BART extension at East Dublin in Alameda County, thence easterly to the cities of Pleasanton and Livermore. These two corridors include all or portions of the following rail lines noted earlier: o The Southern Pacific mainline between Fairfield and San Jose/Tamien; o The publicly owned San Ramon branch line between Highway 4 in Contra Costa County and I-580 in Alameda County. As noted earlier, other potential rail right-of-ways were examined but determined to have little or no transit value at this time. These lines are noted below with a summary description of the results of the assessment. Santa Fe Line between Martinez (Port Chicago) and Richmond This corridor is aligned generally through a sparsely inhabited area of the region, with limited opportunities for access and egress. The line also traverses hilly terrain and would require substantial upgrading to permit continued freight operation while insuring sufficient capacity and speed for passenger services. In addition, this route would not apparently provide opportunities for a direct interconnection with any commuter or intercity service using the Southern Pacific line through Martinez towards Fairfield and Sacramento. Thus the Santa Fe route would have to be considered as a stand-alone route. Lacking a direct connection to 13 any future service into Solano County and lacking sufficient on- line travel demand between Martinez and Richmond, this line is seen as having at best only limited value for passenger purposes. It may have value for the diversion of some freight traffic which currently uses the Southern Pacific mainline, thus freeing up additional capacity for passenger services on that line. Union Pacific/Southern Pacific lines: Tracy to Fremont Alameda County owns the abandoned right-of-way of the Southern Pacific between Fremont and the San Joaquin county line near Tracy. The Union Pacific owns an active line between these same two points and generally parallels the former Southern Pacific line. These two lines traverse Niles Canyon and Altamont Pass in a curving alignment which severely restricts operating speeds. While these lines do offer. the long-range potential for a more direct (and thus faster) San Jose-Stockton-Sacramento intercity or regional rail service than is possible via the currently planned route from San Jose-Oakland-Martinez-Stockton/Sacramento, the transit benefits to Contra Costa County from the use of this line appear limited for the following reasons. With a satisfactory connection to the planned Sacramento intercity service at Martinez, central Contra Costa County will have very good rail access to the east and north, while western Contra Costa County would clearly benefit more from the planned route to Sacramento rather than the use of the Altamont Pass route. Secondly, trips oriented to Hayward or Fremont will be able to use the East Dublin BART station. Finally, there do not appear to be the absolute volume of trips that would generate the need for a local transit service on this corridor. Notwithstanding the relative low priority that this corridor may have for Contra Costa County trips, this may be a significant corridor for San Joaquin County, as indicated in several recent studies. That county has many trips ends in central Contra Costa County, as well as in the Silicon Valley region, both of which could be served by a regional rail link on this corridor. From the perspective of Contra Costa County, trips originating on rail from San Joaquin County on this line could be served by an interconnecting station facility at both Pleasanton and Livermore on a new central Contra Costa/Alameda County rail service. While this line may not be a high priority for Contra Costa County, the county should be alert to future opportunities to tie in its local service in order to maximize travel opportunities. 14 SouthernPacificLine Between Martinez, Brentwood and Tracy This line is in active use by both Amtrak (for a short segment) and by the Southern Pacific Railroad, which has indicated a willingness to make it available for joint use freight/passenger service. This line could provide commuter service from eastern Contra Costa County to the east bay. Such a service, originating in Tracy, could potentially provide an alternate route for those destined to northern east bay points. Notwithstanding the potential value of such a service, current trip data along Highway 4 do not suggest that this is a strong travel route from San Joaquin County, although it is recognized that the limited capacity of route 4 in certain segments might limit its use from that county. 1- In terms of eastern Contra Costa County residents, there is only a modest number of trips destined to either the Crockett area or Richmond from either Antioch, Pittsburg or Brentwood. By far the greater number of trips are destined to areas reasonably served by BART, which can be accessed from the proposed West Pittsburg station. Examining other west bay destinations which could be served by a commuter service, there are also only a relatively small number of workers making that journey. Even with the relatively small number of trips originating in eastern Contra Costa County and destined to jobs along a commuter rail route- there would still be some marginal value in extending the base commuter line eastward from Martinez except for the fact that there do appear to be far stronger directional trips originating in Solana County which could strengthen a commuter line to east bay and southerly west bay points. Given that the Solano County leg of such a system would appear to be the principal service link, any extension eastward from Martinez to the Brentwood area would no longer necessarily be a "marginal" extension but might require dedicated sets of equipment beyond equipment required for the base service, it may be that such an extension might not be financially cost effective. Thus, for the purposes of this study, the use of this route for commuter service is considered questionable. If additional analysis is conducted on the concept of a regional commuter rail line on the Southern Pacific, it would be appropriate to review this opportunity once again. 15 POTENTIAL TRANSIT CORRIDORS Commuter Rail Service: Fairfield - San Jose Under the direction of the State Legislature, the Metropo litan Transportation Commission has recently concluded an intercity rail study which examined frequent corridor service between San Jose, Oakland, Martinez, Fairfield and Sacramento (Auburn) using the Southern Pacific mainline. ' The Caltrans Division of Rail is currently taking steps to implement the findings of this study which will include initially several roundtrips daily between San Jose and Sacramento-. Some of the actions that Caltrans will take relate to capital improvements on this line to facilitate the timely operation of passenger trains as well as to the purchase of operating rights from the Southern - Pacific railroad. The combination of these two actions by another agency raise the possibility of whether a locally funded commuter service might be able to build upon the investments of others to provide a service which, without the significant investment of others, might not be ordinarily justified. In order to test this possibility, a hypothetical commuter line was created using various segments of the Southern Pacific railroad. (Parenthetically it should be noted that the mere feasibility of such a service is no guarantee that such a service is possible since the host railroad must agree to such services. ) The "route" of the new commuter service commences at Fairfield using the tracks of the Southern Pacific and continues through Martinez (with a connection to a new Contra Costa light rail distributor) , Richmond (to a connection with BART) , continuing on the Southern Pacific to Oakland; south of Oakland, the line would switch to the Union Pacific alignment with commuter stations at all BART stations which have the distribution infrastructure in place for train users; near Fremont, the commuter line would re-connect with the Southern Pacific line to Dumbarton bridge and from that point to the Caltrain line and San Jose/Tamien. The above alignment represents a theoretical "Optimum" alignment since it builds upon the existing transit infrastructure. If the "BART alignment" south of Oakland turns out not to be feasible, the commuter rail route could use other existing Southern Pacific lines to reach the Dumbarton bridge. It should be pointed out also that the commuter rail route south of Oakland would diverge from the intercity route currently desired by Caltrans. This would, of course, result in somewhat increased capital improvement costs which would be solely the responsibility of the commuter rail agency; these costs are potentially offset by the much greater access to population centers afforded by the "BART alignment". 16 The ACR 132 Intercity Rail Corridor Upgrade Study (MTC, November, 1990) forecasts a significant number of intra-MTC-regional trips based upon 20 roundtrips daily. Table. 6-6 of that report, which is reproduced in this report as Table 1, forecasts a range of daily trips in the year 2010 of 3 ,850 - 6,750. These are not considered to be commuter trips, or as generally described, home-based work trips. These intraregional trips could just as well be carried by a "regional rail" service as by an intercity service operating the entire distance between San Jose and Sacramento. In other countries with a well developed intercity network it is common to have regional rail systems which provide the type of intraregional rail trip addressed in the MTC forecast. The ACR 132 report did not prepare a commuter rail forecast for the home-based work trip. In order to develop an estimate of the total pool of commuters which might be attracted to commuter rail, the zone-to-zone travel for the years 1990 and 2005 were aggregated. These totals are listed in Table 2 . The origin and destination codes used were prepared by the Contra Costa County Planning Department and correspond to zones developed by the MTC. These zones and their familiar place names are listed below. Zone 'Place Name Zone Place Name 01 Richmond, Berkeley 11 Eastern Alameda Co 02 Crockett, Hilltop 12 Hayward, Fremont 03 Martinez, Concord 13 Oakland 04 Walnut Creek 14 Vallejo 06 Antioch, Pittsburg 15 Fairfield 07 Brentwood 16 Sonoma County 09 San Mateo & Santa Clara Cos. 17 Marin County 10 Santa Clara Co; San Jose 05 San Ramon, Danville 12 Fremont, Hayward As shown in Table 2, only certain trips from specific zones were shown as commuter rail eligible. In general, no "backtracking" was permitted. If BART could provide a service even remotely similar to a proposed commuter service, the trip was not included in the total. On the other hand, in those corridors for which BART is not proposed to provide service (most notably the cross-bay trips in the vicinity of the Dumbarton Bridge) some apparently unlikely trips were included; this category contains trips from Marin and Sonoma counties, as well as trips from other zones served by BART. In these instances it would be assumed that the commuter rail trip would commence, not at the beginning of the route but rather at the station representing the closest straight line distance between the origin and destination. 17 L TABLE 1 Table 6-6 YEAR 2010 INTERCITY RAIL PATRONAGE POTENTIALS (One-Way Trips Per Day) Auburn-Sacramento-Oakland-Sart Jose AGR-132 Intercity Rail Corridor Upgrade Study A. Intercity Trips Generated by MTC Region at 20 Trains/Day Lowe Mid-Point High 1. Intra-Regional 3,850 5,300 6,750' 2. Inter-Regional 2,500 2,750 3,000 { > €> : - S>350:><<'»<»= >...:. B. Intercity Trips Generated by SACOG Region at 4 Trains/Day2 Low Mid-Point High 1. Intra-Regional 650 725 800 2. Auburn-Roseville Inter-Regional 500 550 600 3. Other Sacramento Area Inter-Regional 1,200 1,300 1,400 . . . h' i; ::.,.,.:. .y: ya.+:3'•;::�'":':-mak:x;•:..;..5�".i.{a:'.,;i:i.:.r;�.::-::vr,:,i�}:`.�i:'•:,: i: a Total Daily Patronage 8,700 10,625 =—�:.'.•:o-:.:'.i.:.}:.>i.:.::�:::.•.i::.{.{.•.::i.i.:.'-.:.;:.;.•.i::.;{.{.:...: :ti.::. s�.:.:'.:-.:::•::.!:;{.•A. nnuel,:�:F3#r..o..r.tg. .{.{:..•:,:.3: 7SOt30•i•:X:;i:wx i{i<-ii:::.{:.{>i:{..:.3{'378 i<~1528,155n0 >v { ::':-:::'c: t.t:: ;0a MTC Estimate. 2 Excludes Commuter Trips. Wilbur Smith Associates; September 1990. d} TS � O O ri b U') O P4 N O H H N I4E-4Wl Nd' NOOM %DMN \ONWWOOLf WW 0 EUO LO M0wHr ' %00LO M LONw < tDwwm C44 � � O 0 d' ar- mNr10MNmmrl -gH0rlmw O '� Q 4.1 \ i i i h i +� h .. i i h h i i i ♦ La 4-J OH r-itD riNrlN �-1 �7 �-I � tONMO� r-IN 41 0 H IQ z a � to HO +-4vNMI� MOhN grmm001OCf 0m qv '� O 00 � E 0%� .. +.rl v C14 W m 0 00 to ON m %0 O M00 (3) rq co to r1 p k a Dot Mod' ONON00r- 0OD00r-1MONIt') !flO1Hr, N R r. w .. .. h \ h \ \ \ \ h +. , O A z 0 ri lt3 ri N til N � 00 r-1 N Cl) T4 r.O N U1 EE.t H p4 a 0 04 w P .Q Q) 04 H A H r ae MaCMW 1 a ONMMOMOMOMOMOMOMMM cao•ri 10 r-iHHaHo ?-1oHoHoHOr-10oa ,a +: > 4) HP 4 H00 o ani E WW W NNNll:ry OwHr-iht- MMd' d' Nt11r-1 E N O41 H AE OA 000wriririoorirlriwoor♦ or-i Aa rd as 00 ' m 4) :1 Q rn H to to 4 � E HAh 1 -� t# Hw ttS 00E 7 Aw > m pq aEutO -1d Nrir ' r- Mr M 'qV 0L000ri ,t OD 7 4J v W P49 0 r-it{) t- LnOd' O1MtDHMMr-iMriODr-i0otD b 0 9 W H Ix E-1 OE N NcrLOri rid' Nr-1MMririNN rico O W or 4 ) W O ro O •O toHO Nhd` NdtnONOOhtOtt� MtDOONOMOri ri H 4E4O► N00 ' NMMN0Tir-IM -;r M %rr- N0 � (J ri ODUot o� mot` � �rNaDr-i �rOM �' 0r-r Norrl > 0 O p r-) h h h h h i 0 (d W O p, N d' N r-i N Hr-4h i< O 41 H O N H •ri •rl 1 ENr-iMN00riN00HNm0 r-IN0r-4M t� 4 } 0) z aar-ir-lor'l000H000ri00000 .• "� 4J 0H w004 0 0 W 0mIn0MLOMMMMw0wwr- ht\ NN 0ria� l<OA HHHr4H0000000000000 Using this approach, MTC and Contra Costa County data indicate that there were 116, 214 home-based work trips on this corridor in 1990. Projections for the year 2005 show this number increasing to 145, 029. Overall, MTC projects that 36.9% of these home-based work trips will take place in the morning peak travel period. Thus the corresponding number of AM peak period trips for the years 1990 and 2005 respectively are 42,882 and 53,515.. No mode split analyses have been performed on this pool of potential commuter riders. If a 5% mode split were assumed, then the corresponding trips would be 2144 and 2675. Given the uniquely constrained destinations of some of the trips, particularly the west bay destinatibns, there could be somewhat higher mode splits on particular zone-to-zone combinations. Assuming a commuter rail base ridership during the peak period of 2675 and layering that with the low-end estimate of 3850 intraregional trips forecast in the ACR 132 report for the year 2010, ..the total number of intraregional rail trips would be approximately 6525. Using the high-end MTC estimate of 6750 non- commuter trips, the total number of intraregional rail trips would be approximately 9425. A similar analysis was performed on interzonal travel forecasts for commute service in the reverse direction: i.e. , from San Jose/Tamien to Fairfield. The results are shown in Table 3 . This tabulation likewise excludes trips which could be entirely served by BART. It also excludes work trips destined for Sonoma and Marin counties since transit connections to those destinations are poor; in the opposite travel direction it has been assumed that commuters would drive to the origin station. This conservative analysis indicates that there were 57, 128 home- based work trips in this corridor in 1990. Year 2005 projections show an increase to 72, 579 trips. Applying the same factors used above, the corresponding number of possible rail commuters is 1050 and 2503 respectively. Thus if there were a two-way rail service between San Jose/Tamien and Fairfield in the year 2005, it is reasonable to assume that there could be a total of approximately 12, 000 weekday riders. 20 TABLE 3 HOME-BASED WORK TRIP PRODUCTION/ATTRACTION ORIGIN/DESTINATION PAIRS SAN JOSE TO FAIRFIELD COMMUTER RAIL CORRIDOR HOME BASED WORK TRIP ORIGIN- PRODUCTION/ATTRACTION DESTINATION 1990 2005 09 12 24,443 35, 103 09 13 17,950 16,873* 09 01 1,747 2 , 356 09 02 .' 105 311 09 03 775 1, 146 12 02 189 583 13 02 1, 042 2, 359 01 ' 02 1,581 3,292 01 03 4,916 5,613 02 03 4, 380 4,943 GRAND TOTALS 57,128 72,579 Notes: The above data are based on home-based work person-trip matrices in the "production/attraction" format. Each entry must be divided by 2 in order to yield round trips. An asterisk (*) following an entry highlights a projected decrease from 1990 to 2005. 21 Assessment of Commuter Rail Potential There appears to be a reasonable basis to proceed with further investigations into the potential for commuter rail. Other corridor rail studies, most notably the ACR 132 study, have independently forecast a moderate number of intraregional trips that were not commuter trips. The available MTC data suggest that there is a solid core of trips occurring along the corridor to be served by commuter rail. Coupled with the base potential for ridership is the persuasive fact that a substantial amount of capital investment will be made by the State in order to develop the San Jose-Sacramento corridor. It does appear that the- amount of intraregional ridership, both commuter and non commuter, is more than sufficient to warrant additional investigation. Light Rail Service: Martinez (Benecia) - East Dublin The second major potential unserved transit corridor identified in this review is one generally paralleling the I-680 corridor in central Contra Costa County. This corridor is also one which has been discussed in previous studies, most notably the 1987 report prepared for the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors for the San Ramon Branchline. The procedure used to identify this corridor of travel is similar to that utilized in the identification of the potential commuter rail corridor. The assumptions used to isolate unique travel links which could support such a service are also similar to those employed in the commuter rail assessment. In general terms, near-term BART extensions were assumed to be in place. Trips which could reasonably be accommodated by BART were not included in the trip-making base. Thus transit trips from Concord to Oakland are assumed to occur solely on BART and would not utilize the light rail line for even a portion of the trip. Trip ends at least one zone away from a zone in which a BART station is located are included, however. While the commuter rail assessment did not include trips within a zone as eligible trips, the light rail assessment did assume that such trips would be possible and are thus included in the base. Table 4 indicates that there is a "pool" of 292, 169 home-based work trips which took place in the zones which could reasonably be served by such a system. Projections for the year 2005 indicate that this number will increase to 307,421. 22 O � � O 4-) : O O � to z 0 a0 0 H H N •.� N 9E0 OOMNMHhNhMMgg01 'N0 rl E00 tDt- H -t Ot00 r- 0NvHNr-IH N U O N 1 M,Hi M O W 0 01 N h 01 O N M 0 M iM 'rq 0 d•f 94 E-1 MM OE H� U1N O1Srr HNrN O 001 10 z W 0 .At GDH0 �rcoh0 ,-irtMMNMhNOd' N 01 1 0 O E4 as mO0qzrc0hInM0) rir•I0hd' tD %0 m p fx m0 at0H coNNmHcl) LOLOr- tt1NU) NmH rl 4J 44 0 pq In pi0 NOd' � LOH cnrf Nr-I N ON Q) N a to xw N � A 0z a U v 0 b cu H x NEm E-4 'LS to H 1 a' I-tmmm .44m -IMd' I.nHmIct H to 0b Tf 0toca zH OOOOOOHOOOri000H H 3 > U �, H To aa' EH 9 W r -1riM �r �rd' d' MtoM0WtOtOtD H 4) 0} -n zE ►a O0 rIrarIr♦ rI +-I +� ririHHHHHH to 0 a0H N a zOl $ ,a HAH p N a 0 E m Awa o ) 0oa ami U Ix O a z � w O 94Ein VMCO) camN "zrtOr-IWMMW0NM O4 � E� V O e-iCOriNOMNMtDNN01tOtOhtO MO O hM co N0 (1) Ln0ONNLnLOd .01 In 00 14PGN • \ \ . . . . . Pt EE d' MwNNd' hN010MNMNN O 0 � tO N N Cl) H M r-444 O a z 'O Z toH0 O1tt) d' tt7rn0100ots1aorlrioOtON Oq r-I-I a' [- M NcrOMOtOMh SrMU1hh00N0 y43 r-{ QUO+ VV 00Nhln0) VONT-ih00r{ M00OD O U O \ . . . . \ . . \ \ \ \ \ \ W A 0) tO ;r H N O In ri ON ,-I to r-1 r-4 H 'Q m Va z0 %D Nd' rlMH � 4-) .� 004 W P4 N b 0 E-4O w H •rf •rl i a tf) Md' tL"lrlMd' tf) riMd' Inrllnr-IM U N zz 0000r-I000rl000H0rA0 .1.7 H 4) O W rt 0 H m +i M-4 OA 000000000000o00H zW4 Assuming that 36.9% of these trips occur in the morning peak period, the respective number of home based work trips respectively for 1990 and 2005 are 107,810 and 113,438. The 1987 study projected ridership for a variety of alternatives on the 1-680 corridor. A direct comparison between BART and several Light rail alternatives (LRT) in the same corridor indicated a significant improvement in transit ridership using LRT. The corresponding patronage estimates were .1-0, 100 for BART and a range of 18, 600-24, 300 for LRT depending upon different land use assumptions (Table 6-2 of the 1987 report) . The 1987 study concluded that "the most significant difference in the performance of the alternatives examined is in the use of the study corridor system (i.e. , 1-680 corridor) . While all alternatives perform significantly better than the Null alternative, the L i RT system performs the best, closely followed by the Busway, BART significantly lower, and TSM essentially attracting local bus riders to new express routes (page 6-13) . 11 The study corridor system referenced in the 1987 study extended from Route 4 near Concord to Stanley Boulevard in Pleasanton. Another study conducted by Contra Costa County suggests that there is sufficient trip-making potential on Treat Boulevard and Ygnacio Valley Road to justify some form of light rail treatment as well. This report indicated that 70% of all vehicle trips have an origin or destination in the Walnut Creek area. 12% of all trips are destined for Danville or San Ramon. In the words of the report, "This may indicate an opportunity for transit. " Thus, in addition to the base corridor along 1-680 between Route 4 and Stanley Boulevard, a light rail system incorporating some service in the Treat/Ygnacio Valley corridor would also appear to merit further evaluation. A significant number of work trips enter Contra Costa County at the Benecia bridge at Martinez. Additionally, the proposed intercity rail service and possible commuter rail service will have a major station facility in Martinez near the base of the bridge. it appears reasonable to connect the potential LRT system both with the intercity and commuter rail network at Martinez as well as to provide an intercept facility for Solano County residents traveling to central Contra Costa County. Thus it is recommended that the base system be extended from Route 4 to a station facility in Martinez and across the bridge to a terminal location in Benecia. 24 This potential LRT facility would then extend from Solano County at Benecia, to a connection with intercity rail service at Martinez, to an interchange station with BART at the Pleasant Hill BART station, south to another connection with BART at a possible East Dublin BART station in Alameda County, and continue to a terminus on the San Ramon branchline in Pleasanton, adjacent to a future service which may be provided by San Joaquin county on either the Union Pacific or Southern Pacific lines, thus providing a distribution facility for trips originating either in Pleasanton or points east in San Joaquin County. Assessment of Light Rail Potential Earlier studies conducted by the county have indicated the strong potential for light rail within the 1-680 corridor. Work conducted in this effort has- identified at least two additional factors which may strengthen the case for such a corridor: 1. The planned expansion of intercity services at Martinez, coupled with the possibility for commuter rail service from that . station; and 2. The possibility of intercepting traffic from Solano County as it is funneled through the Benecia bridge. The total volume of trip-making potential in this corridor remains quite high and appears more than sufficient to justify additional detailed evaluation. 25